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02-02-2012, 02:55 PM
  #76
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02-02-2012, 04:03 PM
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I'd be pissed, too. Comparing Benn to Modano is a huge reduction of Modano.
Nah, it's a little unfair to put such a low ceiling on Benn.

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02-02-2012, 04:17 PM
  #78
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Nah, it's a little unfair to put such a low ceiling on Benn.

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02-02-2012, 04:23 PM
  #79
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Gasp Modano answered a question differently than Stars fans wanted him to again let us all rip him for it.

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02-02-2012, 05:27 PM
  #80
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Gasp Modano answered a question differently than Stars fans wanted him to again let us all rip him for it.
I'm sure Modano is a big enough boy to handle negative responses to the various undiplomatic things he's said over the years. Otherwise he'd have stopped saying those kinds of things. Clearly he either doesn't care or can't be bothered to change.

Either way he doesn't particularly need you white knighting for him.

Personally, I think people are putting too much on Benn's shoulders. Not calling him "the new Modano" or whatever would probably be for the best. Not exactly the kind of pressure you want on the guy who will hopefully be your best player for years to come. I just think Modano could have said it better, but then again, Modano has always been like that.

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02-02-2012, 05:42 PM
  #81
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02-02-2012, 05:51 PM
  #82
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Yep, you picked out the thing that Modano is better than Benn at. Certainly not anything hockey related.

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02-02-2012, 06:04 PM
  #83
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Yep, you picked out the thing that Modano is better than Benn at. Certainly not anything hockey related.
I think this is known in the psychology world as "the recency effect"

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02-02-2012, 06:15 PM
  #84
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Personally, I think people are putting too much on Benn's shoulders. Not calling him "the new Modano" or whatever would probably be for the best. Not exactly the kind of pressure you want on the guy who will hopefully be your best player for years to come. I just think Modano could have said it better, but then again, Modano has always been like that.
Honestly I've never seen anyone say Benn is the next Modano. Unless they just mean face of the franchise, but no one has ever said Benn will have as great of a career as Mo, or be as good of a player.

Doesn't mean Modano has to hate the kid. I don't see a big of a surprise with fans begin upset that the former face of the franchise wants to be passive aggressive against the next. It's a pretty valid reaction.

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02-02-2012, 06:25 PM
  #85
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Doesn't mean Modano has to hate the kid. I don't see a big of a surprise with fans begin upset that the former face of the franchise wants to be passive aggressive against the next. It's a pretty valid reaction.
That's pretty much what I was getting at with my post.

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02-02-2012, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Ambassador Of Fun View Post
I think this is known in the psychology world as "the recency effect"
I refuse to use a sarcasm smiley.

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02-03-2012, 12:26 PM
  #87
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Honestly I've never seen anyone say Benn is the next Modano. Unless they just mean face of the franchise, but no one has ever said Benn will have as great of a career as Mo, or be as good of a player.
I'll say it right now. Benn is the next Modano. I'm being 100% serious. I believe he is, and I won't apologize for it.

Here's something to think about:

OK, we all know Modano had some gaudy point totals early in his career. His 93 point season during the team's last year in Minnesota is often cited as example of his greatness. He was 22. No way Benn can match that at the same age, right?

Well, you've got to look at the context of the era. When was Modano scoring all those points? How was the game played? Those 93 points translated to a 1.13 points-per-game. Impressive, sure -- until you realize that wasn't even good enough to get in the Top-20 league-wide. Not really even that close. Brett Hull came in at #20 with 1.26 points-per-game. Modano wasn't in the top-20 if you just go by raw points either.

Fast-forward to the present day. Benn's also 22. He's been playing at his current level for about a year. It'd be hard to call this a hot streak or a blip on the radar. Right now he's sitting at 1.02 points-per-game this season. That's 11th best in the NHL.

So far, he's doing better compared to his peers, at the same age, in a climate that places much more emphasis on systems, checking, and defense.

And that's just points. Benn is already a far more advanced player defensively than Modano was.

Can he keep it up? That's always the question. If he can, he absolutely will have as great of a career as Modano -- and then some. Franchise players tend to come around every 20 years or so. He's right on time.

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02-03-2012, 12:39 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by UnholyPrince View Post
Honestly I've never seen anyone say Benn is the next Modano. Unless they just mean face of the franchise, but no one has ever said Benn will have as great of a career as Mo, or be as good of a player.

Doesn't mean Modano has to hate the kid. I don't see a big of a surprise with fans begin upset that the former face of the franchise wants to be passive aggressive against the next. It's a pretty valid reaction.
Pretty sure at one point in the offseason I said I think Benn will end up being better than Modano.

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02-03-2012, 12:42 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I'll say it right now. Benn is the next Modano. I'm being 100% serious. I believe he is, and I won't apologize for it.

Here's something to think about:

OK, we all know Modano had some gaudy point totals early in his career. His 93 point season during the team's last year in Minnesota is often cited as example of his greatness. He was 22. No way Benn can match that at the same age, right?

Well, you've got to look at the context of the era. When was Modano scoring all those points? How was the game played? Those 93 points translated to a 1.13 points-per-game. Impressive, sure -- until you realize that wasn't even good enough to get in the Top-20 league-wide. Not really even that close. Brett Hull came in at #20 with 1.26 points-per-game. Modano wasn't in the top-20 if you just go by raw points either.

Fast-forward to the present day. Benn's also 22. He's been playing at his current level for about a year. It'd be hard to call this a hot streak or a blip on the radar. Right now he's sitting at 1.02 points-per-game this season. That's 11th best in the NHL.

So far, he's doing better compared to his peers, at the same age, in a climate that places much more emphasis on systems, checking, and defense.

And that's just points. Benn is already a far more advanced player defensively than Modano was.

Can he keep it up? That's always the question. If he can, he absolutely will have as great of a career as Modano -- and then some. Franchise players tend to come around every 20 years or so. He's right on time.
Well put, I wouldn't 100% call Benn the New Modano (in terms of be a leading point getter/ face of Dallas), but he is the best candidate.

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02-03-2012, 12:43 PM
  #90
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I think when people hear or use the term "the next Modano" they are linking two separate aspects of what Modano represented. Nobody will ever be to the city of Dallas what Modano was but no other player will ever have that chance either. Modano was a great player - a true franchise player. Benn can never be the ambassador of hockey to this city the way Modano was but he can be this team's next franchise player, and I agree with you that he is that player.

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02-03-2012, 12:43 PM
  #91
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Benn isn't the new Modano, Benn is the Benn, Modano is the Modano

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02-03-2012, 12:44 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by glovesave_35 View Post
I think when people hear or use the term "the next Modano" they are linking two separate aspects of what Modano represented. Nobody will ever be to the city of Dallas what Modano was but no other player will ever have that chance either. Modano was a great player - a true franchise player. Benn can never be the ambassador of hockey to this city the way Modano was but he can be this team's next franchise player, and I agree with you that he is that player.
This. This. This.

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02-03-2012, 12:57 PM
  #93
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I'll say it right now. Benn is the next Modano. I'm being 100% serious. I believe he is, and I won't apologize for it.

Here's something to think about:

OK, we all know Modano had some gaudy point totals early in his career. His 93 point season during the team's last year in Minnesota is often cited as example of his greatness. He was 22. No way Benn can match that at the same age, right?

Well, you've got to look at the context of the era. When was Modano scoring all those points? How was the game played? Those 93 points translated to a 1.13 points-per-game. Impressive, sure -- until you realize that wasn't even good enough to get in the Top-20 league-wide. Not really even that close. Brett Hull came in at #20 with 1.26 points-per-game. Modano wasn't in the top-20 if you just go by raw points either.

Fast-forward to the present day. Benn's also 22. He's been playing at his current level for about a year. It'd be hard to call this a hot streak or a blip on the radar. Right now he's sitting at 1.02 points-per-game this season. That's 11th best in the NHL.

So far, he's doing better compared to his peers, at the same age, in a climate that places much more emphasis on systems, checking, and defense.

And that's just points. Benn is already a far more advanced player defensively than Modano was.

Can he keep it up? That's always the question. If he can, he absolutely will have as great of a career as Modano -- and then some. Franchise players tend to come around every 20 years or so. He's right on time.
You are leaving out all the promotion and interviews that Modano did for the team. In the early years, he did so much off the ice for this team that Benn can never match. He doesn't have to sell a non traditional sport to a new market. Sure there are comparables now post-Hicks compared to 1993 but there is a hockey market here now. Also, Benn doesn't have the personality that Modano does. In that sense, Benn will never even come close to Modano.

Another thing. I love Benn. He's by far my favorite player in the NHL, but you like your advanced statistics, what say you about his really high amount of secondary assists?

Edit: looks like GS got to my first point before I could get my post in while looking at statistics.

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02-03-2012, 01:15 PM
  #94
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Another thing. I love Benn. He's by far my favorite player in the NHL, but you like your advanced statistics, what say you about his really high amount of secondary assists?
At first I thought it might be a byproduct of the AAC's liberal scorers since Morrow and Eriksson also appear in the Top-10 leaguewide in 5v5 secondary assists per 60. But that's not really a satisfactory explanation since Benn has more points on the road than he does at home.

I'd say part of the explanation is that Benn is almost always the one with the puck on his stick through neutral while attacking, often breaking the defense down at that point rather than in the offensive zone. Then the play develops further and a goal might be the result but Benn doesn't get the primary. Certainly he picks up a lot of assists that aren't the slam-dunk variety for a specific passing target. I don't feel like they've been undeserved though or that he's been a non-crucial component of those plays. The phenomenon was on display in the Anaheim game as it relates to Ott and Ryder. It's not like Benn was setting their table all over the ice for tap-ins. Suddenly though both guys appeared dangerous while Benn was with them whereas before they had basically disappeared over the stretch he was out.

It's something to keep an eye on though. That might be a project to even go back at the end of the season and chart out each scoring play he assisted on to determine the extent of his role.

As far as the off-ice stuff goes... I don't care about any of that. That's not what I'm interested in.

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02-03-2012, 01:42 PM
  #95
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I'd imagine that Zubov had a ridiculously high number of secondary assists compared to primaries, it doesn't mean that he didn't start the scoring play. Not all secondary assists are created equal.

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02-03-2012, 01:57 PM
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Trying to compare what they do for the community is stupid. Benn never had the oppurtunity based on when he entered the world.

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02-03-2012, 02:14 PM
  #97
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If Benn is the lead guy in two Cup wins, he'll surpass Modano when it comes to his meaning with the community.

Modano did a lot of great stuff to help grow hockey in Dallas, but his main contribution was winning a Cup. Winning breeds fan loyalty in any new market.

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02-03-2012, 03:43 PM
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Benn probably has been a bit lucky this year with the secondary assists - Dallas players have a 11.78% shooting percentage when Benn is on the ice during even strength play - that's the highest of any player on the team. His own shooting percentage is 11.8% which I don't think is extra-ordinarily high for such a skilled player, but we wouldn't expect his less talented line mates to keep that up.

On the other hand you could make the (obvious) argument that Benn's superior play making skills are making life easier for his team mates and the assist totals are an accurate representation of that. People have struggled to find much in the way of correlation between any player and their ability to affect shooting percentage in other people, but it seems like a common sense argument that such a skill exists.

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02-03-2012, 04:12 PM
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Benn probably has been a bit lucky this year with the secondary assists - Dallas players have a 11.78% shooting percentage when Benn is on the ice during even strength play - that's the highest of any player on the team. His own shooting percentage is 11.8% which I don't think is extra-ordinarily high for such a skilled player, but we wouldn't expect his less talented line mates to keep that up.

On the other hand you could make the (obvious) argument that Benn's superior play making skills are making life easier for his team mates and the assist totals are an accurate representation of that. People have struggled to find much in the way of correlation between any player and their ability to affect shooting percentage in other people, but it seems like a common sense argument that such a skill exists.
Maybe it's because I have a natural aversion to mathematics but it's this kind of argument or point of discussion that does nothing for me. Trying to rationalize with numbers what we all see with our own eyes may help some people come to grips with things on a holistic level, I get that. But something as "advanced" as team shooting % when a certain player is on the ice is still a very crude measurement. Does the team volume shoot when lesser skilled players are on the ice because they lack the creativity to generate any semblance of offense otherwise? Are less shots taken when Benn is on the ice versus any other moment for whatever reason at all? Or do they take more and happen to score at a better rate? Regardless of any of those answers, his mates scoring at a better rate per shot when he's on the ice brings things back to the old eye-ball test - the team is most dangerous when Benn is on the ice.

You can slice things up any way you want mathematically but at the end of the day people are left to make conclusions and subsequently make predictions based on those conclusions. As scientifically based as you want to make the thing it still takes a human mind to give the numbers any kind of meaning and human minds operate differently and can come to (similarly reasonable but) different conclusions based on the same data.

Jamie Benn isn't "picking up" secondary assists that inflate his point totals he's picking up an earned statistic based on his play in all areas of the ice.

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02-03-2012, 07:31 PM
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Maybe it's because I have a natural aversion to mathematics but it's this kind of argument or point of discussion that does nothing for me. Trying to rationalize with numbers what we all see with our own eyes may help some people come to grips with things on a holistic level, I get that. But something as "advanced" as team shooting % when a certain player is on the ice is still a very crude measurement. Does the team volume shoot when lesser skilled players are on the ice because they lack the creativity to generate any semblance of offense otherwise? Are less shots taken when Benn is on the ice versus any other moment for whatever reason at all? Or do they take more and happen to score at a better rate? Regardless of any of those answers, his mates scoring at a better rate per shot when he's on the ice brings things back to the old eye-ball test - the team is most dangerous when Benn is on the ice.

You can slice things up any way you want mathematically but at the end of the day people are left to make conclusions and subsequently make predictions based on those conclusions. As scientifically based as you want to make the thing it still takes a human mind to give the numbers any kind of meaning and human minds operate differently and can come to (similarly reasonable but) different conclusions based on the same data.

Jamie Benn isn't "picking up" secondary assists that inflate his point totals he's picking up an earned statistic based on his play in all areas of the ice.
I wasn’t making any comment on Benn’s ability as a playmaker or his overall talent level in that previous post. When considering a subject through the lens of stats (I won’t use “advanced” because that just drawing an arbitrary distinction between one set of statistics that have been counted for years and another set that have only come into the mainstream recently) it’s often not very useful to just look at results. The fact is that just giving credit for what happens at the end of the play only takes into consideration a very small amount of what actually contributes to success. So Benn’s ability at both ends of the ice that you referenced is well born out in the possession numbers that we can generate just off of what is provided on the score sheet – numbers like relative CORSI ratio. It’s also obvious from just watching the game. I don’t think you and I disagree on this topic as much as you might think.

When I reference Benn’s ratio of secondary assists to ice time and suggest that it may not be sustainable, I think the best way to consider that is to break the situation down into its individual components. It’s logical that when the puck leaves Benn’s stick, he can exert no further direct influence over the play until the puck returns to his stick. In between it’s up to the other players on the team to make the correct decisions and execute properly. This is probably most obvious when we’re talking about a buffer of another player in between Benn and the eventual goal scorer. When the puck does eventually get to the guy taking the shot, there’s any number of things that could happen – hopefully he puts it in the bloody net. Unfortunately much more frequently he will miss the net or the goaltender will make a save or the defenseman will block the shot. Sometimes the player’s stick will break, sometimes he won’t even take a shot and instead choose to carry the puck into the corner or pass it to someone else. The point I was trying to make is that is it really so difficult to imagine that in some years a higher ratio of these chances will go in the net than in others? I don’t think that’s a very controversial statement. And yet that very ratio will have a huge effect on a player’s counting stats at the end of the year due to factors that are completely out of their control.

If we could imagine NHL players just constantly playing games to the point that there were 1,000 games in a NHL regular season, we would see these ratios even out over time and we could make some real statements about how a player’s true talent is reflected in one stat or the other. That condition doesn’t exist though so the best we can do is compare players to each other and pick out clear outliers for examination. We can ask ourselves some questions to determine if there’s actual talent driving these outliers or if it’s just a result of random chance. So far in the studies that have been done there’s been no definitive proof for the concept that players can improve their linemate’s chances to score over and above their career performance. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, but to date we can not measure it with the data that we have (which is what I was trying to get at in the 2nd part of my previous post.

Another (and much clearer) example of this is Mark Fistric’s 2009-10 season where he posted that ridiculous +/- number. Well as it turns out one of the reasons he was able to finish so highly in that metric is that the Dallas goaltenders posted a .963 save percentage while he was on the ice at even strength. Is that because 2009-10 Mark Fistric was just so ridiculously good in his own end that he could prevent goals just by his very presence on the ice? Maybe Marty Turco was imbued with the powers of Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy during those minutes? I think there’s a much better explanation for that success. It also explains why we haven’t seen the same level of performance in this category from Mark Fistric since then.

In closing, I actually work with statistical modeling as a property assessor, so I guess it’s not surprising that I’d latch on to this stuff and talk about it with my friends and on the boards here. But one thing to remember is that while we have to ensure that the results of statistical testing can be verified by observation of the real word, and I would never suggest that these methods are anything more than one tool in a large arsenal of ways to look at the hockey players, at some point we also have to be open to changing our perspective on how things work and be willing to consider ideas that may seem puzzling, or counter-intuitive, or different than deeply held convictions that we desperately want to be true.

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