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Old
02-02-2012, 01:06 PM
  #26
SECRET SQUIRREL
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Picking in the top 5 is the only positive thing thats going to come out of this season as far as I'm concerned. That statement "its not where you draft, but who" is just mind boggling. So you are totally fine with drastically hurting our odds at finding a star center/player in this draft because you would rather have a bunch of meaningless feel good wins these next 2 months??? JTFC

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02-02-2012, 01:22 PM
  #27
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I'm going off of this year mostly.

Parise - Datsyuk - Perry
Zetterberg - Getzlaf- Benn
Eriksson - Giroux - Hossa
Eberle - Kopitar - Neal

Rochester: Carter, Bergeron, Brown, Brad Richards, Mike Richards, Pominville, Roy, Jagr, Sharp, Alfie, Stastny, Kesler

Keith - Chara
Weber - Lidstrom
Letang - Yandle


Rochester: Karlsson, Markov, Campbell, Visnovsky, Timonen, Green, Edler, Streit

Lundqvist
Thomas
Miller


Last edited by drinking bleach irl: 02-02-2012 at 01:35 PM.
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02-02-2012, 01:27 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
the point is the ability to land a super star is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher in the top of the draft...

thick
I've not argued that point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Squantosawuss View Post
So you're saying that the Sabres ran into the Bruins & Flyers when neither was playing at their best?

I'll buy that.
Sure. They ran into well-built teams on either side of excellence. Those same two teams have romped through the East over the past 2.5 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SECRET SQUIRREL View Post
Picking in the top 5 is the only positive thing thats going to come out of this season as far as I'm concerned. That statement "its not where you draft, but who" is just mind boggling. So you are totally fine with drastically hurting our odds at finding a star center/player in this draft because you would rather have a bunch of meaningless feel good wins these next 2 months??? JTFC
The team is as good as its record. If the Sabres win "meaningless" games because Ennis takes off at center, Roy/Leino/Staff wake up, Miller finds his game for good, and the team gets healthy, I'd be much happier than the alternative of drafting high with everyone continuing to suck. It is possible to find a good to great, if not elite, player in the middle picks of the first round.

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02-02-2012, 01:33 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post

My Team:

Sedin - Sedin - Kane
Ovechkin - Crosby - Stamkos
Malkin - Toews - Kessel
Vanek/Nash - Eric Staal/Thornton/Spezza - Gaborik

Pronger - Phaneuf
Jack Johnson - Drew Doughty
Ryan Whitney - Suter

Price
Fleury
Luongo
I'm not taking either side of this argument, but I built a team from the '98-'07 drafts--I wanted to give players more time to develop, and using the recent drafts is dumb because nobody knows who's going to turn out to be really good.

I took the Burke Olympic Approach to building a team. There's little way to matching top-end offensive talent, so why try? But you can still build a team comprised of excellent players. And looking at this lineup, I think my team would beat the piss out of yours, physically, and would be a far better defensive club.

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Giroux
Parise-Getzlaf-Perry
Lucic-Kopitar-Bergeron
M. Richards-Kesler-Backes

Keith-Seabrook
Burns-S.Weber
Letang-Bieksa
x Visnovsky, Martin

Lundqvist
Rinne
Miller/Rask/Thomas

Again, not taking a side. I hate you for making me waste my time like this.

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Old
02-02-2012, 02:13 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
I'm going off of this year mostly.

Parise - Datsyuk - Perry
Zetterberg - Getzlaf- Benn
Eriksson - Giroux - Hossa
Eberle - Kopitar - Neal

Rochester: Carter, Bergeron, Brown, Brad Richards, Mike Richards, Pominville, Roy, Jagr, Sharp, Alfie, Stastny, Kesler

Keith - Chara
Weber - Lidstrom
Letang - Yandle


Rochester: Karlsson, Markov, Campbell, Visnovsky, Timonen, Green, Edler, Streit

Lundqvist
Thomas
Miller
My honest grade: your D are better, your G are better (Miller should not be there, but that's my opinion), although I still have elite players in both categories, and my forwards are much better than yours.

I think a fair-minded conclusion from all of this is that it's closer to true that "it doesn't matter where you draft, but whom" when you're talking about D and goalies, who take longer to develop. But when you talk about forwards, those top ten picks are pure gold compared to what you find later in the draft, and the Sabres should be focused on centers next draft.

Also, you don't get to pick Jagr.

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Old
02-02-2012, 02:27 PM
  #31
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you don't need to be at the top of the draft to get Peyton Manning, because you can get Tom Brady in the 6th round...

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02-02-2012, 03:41 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
you don't need to be at the top of the draft to get Peyton Manning, because you can get Tom Brady in the 6th round...
Or Roethlisberger at 11, Rogers at 24, Cutler at 11, etc.

Not to mention decent starters who aren't really comparable to two of the top five QBs in history.
Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
My honest grade: your D are better, your G are better (Miller should not be there, but that's my opinion), although I still have elite players in both categories, and my forwards are much better than yours.

I think a fair-minded conclusion from all of this is that it's closer to true that "it doesn't matter where you draft, but whom" when you're talking about D and goalies, who take longer to develop. But when you talk about forwards, those top ten picks are pure gold compared to what you find later in the draft, and the Sabres should be focused on centers next draft.

Also, you don't get to pick Jagr.
That's a fair assessment (Idk why I put Jagr on there). I'm not arguing there's an equal chance of picking a great player at random after the first 10, merely that with a good enough analysis one can get a "very good" player, or in some cases one just as good, in the rest of the first.

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02-02-2012, 03:51 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Or Roethlisberger at 11, Rogers at 24, Cutler at 11, etc.

Not to mention decent starters who aren't really comparable to two of the top five QBs in history.


That's a fair assessment (Idk why I put Jagr on there). I'm not arguing there's an equal chance of picking a great player at random after the first 10, merely that with a good enough analysis one can get a "very good" player, or in some cases one just as good, in the rest of the first.
how many QBs are taken in a draft? 10? it wasn't meant as a direct comaprison, it was a joke

it's more about luck, then good analysis... that's why you don't see Ken Holland finding a Dastyuk every year. And the same guys who land Brad Richards in the second round, also spend dozens of other picks on scraps... do you think his analysis was good 1 out for 36 times, or that he got lucky?

it's a crap shoot, you have much better odds drafting a stud in the top 5, then you do in the next 200 picks

It's not like Holland's analysis was "Holy ****, this Datsyuk kid is going to be the best all around player in the game... now let's wait until the 6th round to take him"....

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02-02-2012, 03:54 PM
  #34
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I know that, but you could have done much better than a poor comparison where my strategy is actually more accepted .

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02-02-2012, 03:57 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
I know that, but you could have done much better than a poor comparison where my strategy is actually more accepted .
what strategy?

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02-02-2012, 03:59 PM
  #36
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Drafting well rather than making an effort to draft high.

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02-02-2012, 04:06 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Drafting well rather than making an effort to draft high.
oh, yea... you're the guy who came up with the "draft well" strategy. Good one....

Drafting High, increases the likelihood of drafting great players... it's not debatable.

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02-02-2012, 04:11 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
oh, yea... you're the guy who came up with the "draft well" strategy. Good one....

Drafting High, increases the likelihood of drafting great players... it's not debatable.
If you're randomly picking, by sheer numbers there's a greater likelihood. But if you've got a competent staff, you can find a great player after.

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02-02-2012, 04:17 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
If you're randomly picking, by sheer numbers there's a greater likelihood. But if you've got a competent staff, you can find a great player after.
most of the scouting staff's in the NHL are "competent", not sure how you reach the pinaccle of your profession and do it without being competent....

regardless, the teams that have found a gem.... find them once in awhile... there's hardly anyone pulling this **** off on a regular basis... unlike the top 5 which produces a few all stars EVERY year recently...

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02-02-2012, 04:22 PM
  #40
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My apologies, relatively competent. The worst scouts in the NHL are still good at their job, of course.

And if All-Star within 5 years is the metric you want to use, that's fine. I'd rather not.

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02-02-2012, 05:50 PM
  #41
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I'd just like to say respectfully that I think this wasn't the right thread to go moving this conversation to. A real disagreement broke out when you got people who wanted the team to keep winning and people who wanted the team to keep losing arguing about how this season should finish. This kind of thread is going to get 2-3 views from folks looking at sizing up specific prospects or who will be available where. It's for folks who are already writing the season off, essentially - none of the believers will read it or respond. Which I think kind of kills a fruitful, respectful discussion.

The idea that whatever is in the thread title or the OP is the only subject that can be addressed in the thread isn't very conducive to having thoughtful conversations that evolve from where they started. The previous thread wasn't being hijacked by any one person, it was being participated in fruitfully by a good number of people who were interested in a dispute that was very relevant to the topic.

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Old
02-02-2012, 06:16 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
I've not argued that point.



Sure. They ran into well-built teams on either side of excellence. Those same two teams have romped through the East over the past 2.5 years.


The team is as good as its record. If the Sabres win "meaningless" games because Ennis takes off at center, Roy/Leino/Staff wake up, Miller finds his game for good, and the team gets healthy, I'd be much happier than the alternative of drafting high with everyone continuing to suck. It is possible to find a good to great, if not elite, player in the middle picks of the first round.

So then next year we can keep everyone from this team/management group around even though we haven't won a playoff series since 06-07?
EDIT: I'm not saying I want them to purposely tank, I just think if they go on an average/above average run to the end of the season there won't be any significant change because "they played ok" to finish up the season even though they've looked dismal for a decent chunk of the year

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02-02-2012, 06:17 PM
  #43
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So then next year we can keep everyone from this team/management group around even though we haven't won a playoff series since 06-07?
:/

Check the user title.

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02-02-2012, 06:41 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SECRET SQUIRREL View Post
Picking in the top 5 is the only positive thing thats going to come out of this season as far as I'm concerned. That statement "its not where you draft, but who" is just mind boggling. So you are totally fine with drastically hurting our odds at finding a star center/player in this draft because you would rather have a bunch of meaningless feel good wins these next 2 months??? JTFC


2003 Draft (Sabres picked Vanek 5th overall) - Getzlaf went 19th overall, Mike Richards went 24th overall, and Bergeron went 45th overall.

Hell, Columbus did worse at 4th overall that year (Zherdev) than the Ducks did at 19 (Getzlaf) & 28 (Perry).

Sure, being in the mix for Russia's answer to Taylor vs Tyler would be great.

But, I can never hope that the Sabres lose games.

If they are looking at the next best center behind Grigorenko, then they need to hit that pick out of the park. And I'm guessing that there will be a #1 center drafted after Grigorenko this year.

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02-02-2012, 06:49 PM
  #45
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The defense is playing great and Miller has his game back. You wishing for a high draft pick people are screwed.

It's all about acceptance...of the #13 pick.

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02-02-2012, 07:42 PM
  #46
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The defense is playing great and Miller has his game back. You wishing for a high draft pick people are screwed.

It's all about acceptance...of the #13 pick.
If they continue to score 2 goals or less per game, I doubt they win enough to get that high in the standings.

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02-02-2012, 07:48 PM
  #47
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If they continue to score 2 goals or less per game, I doubt they win enough to get that high in the standings.
I don't know if I'd be that optimistic...er...pessimistic...ah I don't even know anymore!

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02-03-2012, 02:35 PM
  #48
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Jame and the others are right

It does matter where you draft. I write for Buffalo Rumblings on SB Nation, a site that covers the Bills. I focus mainly on the draft, game coverage, and football theory.

From looking at the draft, I can tell you it absolutely matters where you draft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
Or Roethlisberger at 11, Rogers at 24, Cutler at 11, etc.

Not to mention decent starters who aren't really comparable to two of the top five QBs in history.
To make a comparison, let's look at where franchise QB's are drafted. I'll use that as my analogy. You're talking superstar, I'll talk franchise QB. A franchise QB is someone who's started 56 or more games with the same team. I used 56 due to a Harvard study, in which relatively few non-franchise QB's have been afforded more than 56 started with the same team. That's a team giving 3 and a half season worth of starts to a QB.

Since 1990, 46% of quarterbacks drafted in the first round have developed into franchise QB's.

20% of second round picks have developed into franchise QB's.

13% of third round picks develop into franchise QB's.

Only eight of over 80 QB's selected in round 4-UFA have even panned out into starters, much less Tom Brady or Tony Romo.

The point is that it absolutely does matter where you draft. Just because the Pats got Tom Brady in the 6th round doesn't mean it's good business to draft QB's in the 6th round and expect them to develop into franchise QB's. It's not even good business to draft a 2nd round QB and expect to get a franchise QB in return. You're getting less than a 50-50 shot of getting a franchise QB in the first round. But it's the best chance of getting a franchise QB.

All Jame and others are saying is that the dynamics of the NHL draft push the stars to the top of the draft. Part of this dynamic has to do with the separate pipelines to the NHL, where the NFL really only has college football.

On average, if two teams drafts equally well, the team that drafts inside the top 1-10 picks is going to find better hockey players than the team that drafts 11 onward. Sure, you're going to find a ton of great, star hockey players outside the top ten picks. But not in the density of the players going inside the top ten.

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