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3.9% chance of making the playoffs

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Old
01-27-2012, 08:21 PM
  #51
MXD
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How the Montreal/Buffalo result has ANY bearing on Minny and Phoenix chances to make it?

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01-27-2012, 08:24 PM
  #52
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Tim Thomas no like

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01-27-2012, 08:54 PM
  #53
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I don't entirely believe that will happen considering we see multiple teams every year who 8-12 points out at this time and yet battle tooth and nail until about the last couple of weeks.

We'll see what happens, but I would be surprised if the team ends up in the bottom 5. There are many many worse teams than the Canadiens. They started off bad under Cunney and seem to have found their feet these last couple of weeks despite blowing a couple of leads and losing in the SO(ottawa and pittsburgh). Like I said, I don't think the current team is bad enough to finish bottom 5 and trading Gill or Campoli or Moen won't ensure that either as I think the former two have already contributed very little and that the latter's contributions can be reasonably replaced until the end of the year.
it could be the same old sme old again- the wheels keep on spinning

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01-27-2012, 08:59 PM
  #54
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Yes, the Habs have been underachieving. But this isn't linked to some vague, undefinable problem of bad karma or bad bounces. It's really very straightforward: We lack consistent scoring. 7-goal games like the last one are as rare as getting laid for the first time. Much more often, we've managed only one or two goals and allowed two or three -- just enough to lose. Preventing goals isn't the problem. Our defense is tight with a GA that's 12th in the league and a shots-against an impressive 6th best in the league. It's on offense -- specifically the PP -- where our team has underachieved big time.

Fix the PP -- get a better system, a Markov-type defenseman in charge, a sharpshooting forward -- and we have a contending team. Continue on with the hope that our erratic scoring magically fixes itself, and we have a team going nowhere.

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01-27-2012, 09:02 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
Yes, the Habs have been underachieving. But this isn't linked to some vague, undefinable problem of bad karma or bad bounces. It's really very straightforward: We lack consistent scoring. 7-goal games like the last one are as rare as getting laid for the first time. Much more often, we've managed only one or two goals and allowed two or three -- just enough to lose. Preventing goals isn't the problem. Our defense is tight with a GA that's 12th in the league and a shots-against an impressive 6th best in the league. It's on offense -- specifically the PP -- where our team has underachieved big time.

Fix the PP -- get a better system, a Markov-type defenseman in charge, a sharpshooting forward -- and we have a contending team. Continue on with the hope that our erratic scoring magically fixes itself, and we have a team going nowhere.
I agree. The PP has been an absolute killer. The habs are 14th in the league for Goals for per game despite having an absolutely brutal powerplay. I also think that the personnel is not the problem either. The PP set up is just plain gross.

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01-27-2012, 09:26 PM
  #56
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I agree. The PP has been an absolute killer. The habs are 14th in the league for Goals for per game despite having an absolutely brutal powerplay. I also think that the personnel is not the problem either. The PP set up is just plain gross.
Yeah, that's true. I was watching the Flyers last week and noticed how well they move around on their PP. They create space by cycling the puck around, in and back out again. The opposition has no choice but to either take the man, follow them out and leave a hole near their own net, or hold the zone, leave their man, and give him room to shoot from close. But that kind of control takes enough physical presence to hold the ground near the net, the kind of strength our forwards haven't had. We cycle from safe perimeters, shoot from outside and hope we catch a lucky rebound.

So yeah, I agree, part is a system that forces gaps in the defense. But part is the players who are strong enough to implement it. Bourque is a step in the right direction; another big step would be a defenseman with the vision and confidence to pass and shoot without telegraphing their moves so obviously. Markov was great at this and this is exactly where his talent has been missed.

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01-27-2012, 09:33 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
Yeah, that's true. I was watching the Flyers last week and noticed how well they move around on their PP. They create space by cycling the puck around, in and back out again. The opposition has no choice but to either take the man, follow them out and leave a hole near their own net, or hold the zone, leave their man, and give him room to shoot from close. But that kind of control takes enough physical presence to hold the ground near the net, the kind of strength our forwards haven't had. We cycle from safe perimeters, shoot from outside and hope we catch a lucky rebound.

So yeah, I agree, part is a system that forces gaps in the defense. But part is the players who are strong enough to implement it. Bourque is a step in the right direction; another big step would be a defenseman with the vision and confidence to pass and shoot without telegraphing their moves so obviously. Markov was great at this and this is exactly where his talent has been missed.
habs have the players to do that- and they have done that at times- cant finish

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01-27-2012, 09:39 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Lshap View Post
Yes, the Habs have been underachieving. But this isn't linked to some vague, undefinable problem of bad karma or bad bounces. It's really very straightforward: We lack consistent scoring. 7-goal games like the last one are as rare as getting laid for the first time. Much more often, we've managed only one or two goals and allowed two or three -- just enough to lose. Preventing goals isn't the problem. Our defense is tight with a GA that's 12th in the league and a shots-against an impressive 6th best in the league. It's on offense -- specifically the PP -- where our team has underachieved big time.

Fix the PP -- get a better system, a Markov-type defenseman in charge, a sharpshooting forward -- and we have a contending team. Continue on with the hope that our erratic scoring magically fixes itself, and we have a team going nowhere.
On the other hand that's a pretty minor fix. There is even a good chance they have the personel to do so without an addition. Which feeds to the thesis that this isn't a bad team, its a good one that's had more than its fair share of things go wrong.

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01-28-2012, 11:58 AM
  #59
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It has been shown to be more predictive than current win-loss record. There's rather a massive gap between "imperfect especially on short samples" and "meaningless", and it's utterly silly to completely dismiss a metric for being imperfect in its prediction... and prefer to one that's even less predictive.

Furthermore: if you believe that injuries and roster changes would completely invalidate goal differential, then it must follow that every metric that is based on the past, including a team's current record, would be similarly "meaningless", and therefore you have absolutely no way of predicting future team performance based on any existing data. The more reasonable approach is to either factor in roster changes and injuries, or accept that they'll become margins of error.

Now, like all goal metrics, goal differential is heavily-affected by luck/variance and it's less effective than shot metrics at predicting the future so, yes, it can be misleading, especially in small samples, and shot-based metrics such as Corsi and Fenwick and their derivatives are much more informative. But those also point to the Habs being better than their record.



I'm no expert on baseball, but I bet this had more to do with baseball's whacked seeding and the Jays being in the same division as the Yankees and the Red Sox. Pythagorean expectation predicts won-loss record, not division finish; the Jays play in a division they can go 86-76 and end up fourth, in a league where that record would've won one of the divisions.
The Jays pythagorean record was better than the teams in their own division who finished higher than them in the actual standings as well.

Like I said, meaningless was exaggeration to make a point. I don't think goal differential is entirely meaningless. Obviously in order to win you have to score more goals, it's just not the be all, end all. I find some look at certain numbers and present them as absolutes. Most playoff team will have a positive goal differential, most who miss won't, I might have chose my words a little poorly. lol


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Old
01-28-2012, 12:01 PM
  #60
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Winning is losing
Losing is winning

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I want the habs in the post season.
I want the habs in the post season too. It doesn't or shouldn't prevent them from making moves to solidify the future though. I think the team can sell the dead weight and still remain competitive. I know their record looks way worse than it is, we're not this bad and there is basically no shot at finishing bottom 5 imo.

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01-28-2012, 12:04 PM
  #61
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I want the habs in the post season too. It doesn't or shouldn't prevent them from making moves to solidify the future though. I think the team can sell the dead weight and still remain competitive. I know their record looks way worse than it is, we're not this bad and there is basically no shot at finishing bottom 5 imo.
Pretty much what I've been saying in this thread.

Moving Gill, Campoli, Weber, Moen won't have a huge effect on this team and all 4 are replacable in the short-term.

I also think it will take much more than moving the deadweight to get this team in a lottery position. Their record does not reflect the capability of the team in the slightest. They have underachieved all season long.

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01-28-2012, 12:07 PM
  #62
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Pretty much what I've been saying in this thread.

Moving Gill, Campoli, Weber, Moen won't have a huge effect on this team and all 4 are replacable in the short-term.

I also think it will take much more than moving the deadweight to get this team in a lottery position. Their record does not reflect the capability of the team in the slightest. They have underachieved all season long.
Agreed. Even when we were completely dominating teams it never showed up on the scoreboard. The last 20 games we weren't nearly as dominate as the first 20, but we still played a hell of a lot better than the record showed.

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01-28-2012, 12:16 PM
  #63
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There needs to be a playoff rally avatar with this image except Thomas' face instead of Obama's. Trolling the Bruins and hoping for a first round matchup.

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02-03-2012, 06:07 AM
  #64
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And now that we're 14th in our conference (11 points behind 8th place) and 26th in the league...

hmmm.... I wonder what are the odds now...

How about somewhere between nil and non-existant for making the playoffs and even less than that for the cup?

Yeah... I'll go with that.

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02-03-2012, 06:14 AM
  #65
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I can't believe this team will lose enough game to get a top 2 pick. I think they have more chance to win a cup than to suck that much. But hey, at this point I'd be okay with a top 2 draft pick. I mean **** you habs for underachieving game after game, blowing leads after leads. Continue to show us how much you don't want to win and at least there will be a silver lining at the end of this ****ing season.

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02-03-2012, 06:26 AM
  #66
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I can't believe this team will lose enough game to get a top 2 pick. I think they have more chance to win a cup than to suck that much. But hey, at this point I'd be okay with a top 2 draft pick. I mean **** you habs for underachieving game after game, blowing leads after leads. Continue to show us how much you don't want to win and at least there will be a silver lining at the end of this ****ing season.

Top 2, I doubt it... top 5 more likely. I'm hoping for Alex Galchenyuk.

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02-03-2012, 07:21 AM
  #67
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Top 2, I doubt it... top 5 more likely. I'm hoping for Alex Galchenyuk.
If Edmonton, Anaheim and Carolina win their next games we're second last in the league.

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02-03-2012, 09:30 AM
  #68
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Don't make Gauthier think he has a chance..

"Hello, Glen? Is Redden available? I've got Kostitsyn, Trunev and Beaulieu on the table.."

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02-04-2012, 07:03 PM
  #69
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Heading for 0%

We're now at 3.9% chance of making the playoffs. It's a drop of 5.1% from before the Washington game.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

If we lose to the Jets, it's gotta be below a 2% chance.

Why am I hearing that the players are still trying to make the post-season? Just PR, I guess.

As to the cup, it's a solid 0.0%.

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02-04-2012, 07:08 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by shortcat1 View Post
We're now at 3.9% chance of making the playoffs. It's a drop of 5.1% from before the Washington game.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

If we lose to the Jets, it's gotta be below a 2% chance.

Why am I hearing that the players are still trying to make the post-season? Just PR, I guess.

As to the cup, it's a solid 0.0%.
Seriously those stats are ridiculous.
3% chances of making the playoffs but once there 0% chance of winning the cup ? Sorry but that's nonsense. Especially that if by miracle they would make the playoffs that also would mean that they would be the hottest team in the NHL at that point.

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02-04-2012, 08:11 PM
  #71
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Originally Posted by shortcat1 View Post
We're now at 3.9% chance of making the playoffs. It's a drop of 5.1% from before the Washington game.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

If we lose to the Jets, it's gotta be below a 2% chance.

Why am I hearing that the players are still trying to make the post-season? Just PR, I guess.

As to the cup, it's a solid 0.0%.
2.7 % to make the playoffs if the numbers aren't adjusted according to who we're playing against.

A bit more than 1 chance out of 40 to make it.

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02-04-2012, 08:12 PM
  #72
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Seriously those stats are ridiculous.
3% chances of making the playoffs but once there 0% chance of winning the cup ? Sorry but that's nonsense. Especially that if by miracle they would make the playoffs that also would mean that they would be the hottest team in the NHL at that point.
The numbers were probably rounded, make it 0.1% if it makes you feel better.

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02-04-2012, 08:49 PM
  #73
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Seriously those stats are ridiculous.
3% chances of making the playoffs but once there 0% chance of winning the cup ? Sorry but that's nonsense. Especially that if by miracle they would make the playoffs that also would mean that they would be the hottest team in the NHL at that point.
Zero 8th seed teams have won the cup.

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02-04-2012, 08:53 PM
  #74
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Zero 8th seed teams have won the cup.
...although, the 05-06 Oilers came about as close as you can get without winning. If only their top 2 goalies hadn't been injured in the final!

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02-04-2012, 09:00 PM
  #75
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Even if we were to squeak in at 8th place, I don't think we could win the cup the way we've been playing. Its not about making the playoffs, its about winning the cup.

The rest of the season should be spent giving the young guys time to develop and make whatever mistakes they want while learning from them.

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