HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > San Jose Sharks
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

All-Purpose Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread Part III

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-07-2012, 07:31 PM
  #101
Les Wynan*
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,745
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
What the fans think and what the GM thinks are not generally ever in tune. They have no chance at the cup this year, and they've clearly got some 'core issues'. Downie is certainly not untouchable in that climate.
They're one year removed from being probably the best team in the Eastern Conference and a lot of that was built on forward depth. Particularly the play of Thompson and Hall who have fallen off a cliff this season but guys like Gagne (when he was in the lineup) and Bergenheim were important pieces. IMO they can ill afford to let another forward go and Downie's value would probably cost a lot to replace through free agency if it's even possible.

Les Wynan* is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:32 PM
  #102
sjshark91
Registered User
 
sjshark91's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Country:
Posts: 24,636
vCash: 500
To the Moen rumor.
EWWWWW.

sjshark91 is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:38 PM
  #103
FindingNemo
Registered User
 
FindingNemo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 316
vCash: 500
Not sure if this is where it belongs but Frans Nielson is off the market I would suspect..

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=387176

FindingNemo is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:42 PM
  #104
Iron Chef
Registered User
 
Iron Chef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,967
vCash: 500
Break down on Nielsen's contract

Nielsen's extension has an annual cap hit of $2.75M, with year by year salary of $2M, $2.5M, $3M and $3.5M.

That's a damn good contract. So good, it makes him very tradeable

Iron Chef is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:49 PM
  #105
Kevin27nyi
Global Moderator
#21KO
 
Kevin27nyi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 9,397
vCash: 4300
Well, sorry guys.

Nielsen remains ours!

Kevin27nyi is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:52 PM
  #106
Splitbtw
Rebuild? Refresh?
 
Splitbtw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: San Diego
Posts: 1,810
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin27NYI View Post
Well, sorry guys.

Nielsen remains ours!
Can we at least hold out false hope he gets traded until we have something better to discuss and banter over?

Splitbtw is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 07:56 PM
  #107
OrrNumber4
Registered User
 
OrrNumber4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Country: Switzerland
Posts: 7,457
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
I've been trying to stay out of these discussions, but I wanted to address this point. The problem is that you do not understand how statistics work. When talking about stats there is cause, correlation, and noise. For example, when you say things like:



You are confusing a fact, that the fourth line was outshot 29-13 without Murray; to a cause that that reason that the fourth line was outshot was because Murray was not on the ice. The fact is that you simply have no basis for that causal statement.

In order to have any statistical validity in saying that the absence of Murray was directly the cause of the fourth line being outshot the situation in ALL of the games this season, both with and without Murray, would have to be the same. That means the exact same teams playing, with the exact same rosters, with all the players in the exact same condition of health, at exactly the same time, on exactly the same ice surface, with exactly the same penalties called at the same time to same players, etc. To prove CAUSE, you must have the some conditions in a testable manner.

But the problem is that you can't even really infer a solid correlation relationship with those stats. Are those shot counts adjusted depending on opposition, line mates, time on ice, health of the players, and other factors that might skew the numbers one way or another? No, they aren't. And even if could infer a correlation relationship, you might be drawing the wrong one. You seem to saying that Murray is so defensively sound that his presence on the ice reduces the oppositions ability to get shots on net. I could just as easily say that the correlation instead is that Murray is so bad defensively that the defensive pairs are more careful when he is on the ice, effectively reducing the shots against. And that when he is off the ice, they trust the remaining forwards defensive abilities more allowing more shots on goal knowing they have additional defensive support to help clear the rebounds.

So basically, you are quoting all these stats that are basically just noise. An individual stat like shooting %, shots against, or any other stat may have some correlational relationship to player impact when looked at over a broad sample size to a generic player. So I might be able to say that in general, over hundreds of NHL players measured over thousands of NHL games, that when a player is on the ice and the opposition gets more shots than the players team gets shots for, that that represents a correlation to the players defensive skills. The broad sample size helps moderate out factors like player improvement or declines in skills; injuries; differences in teams skills, etc. But the statistics simply do not support drawing those same conclusions on a causal basis when looked for an individual player over a particular (especially a small) period of time.

At best, the statistics can help identify trends that MAY be applicable to certain players at certain times, and provide coaches, scouts, fans, and others things to look for to see if they may be true at a particular time. But in the end, individual observation (as subjective as it is) and memory (as faulty as that is) are more likely to support relevant analysis of an individual players impact that trying to apply such specific stats as you are.


While LW's counter-argument that one can never have a controlled game has merit, the core of this post is great.

OrrNumber4 is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 09:49 PM
  #108
Kevin27nyi
Global Moderator
#21KO
 
Kevin27nyi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 9,397
vCash: 4300
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitbtw View Post
Can we at least hold out false hope he gets traded until we have something better to discuss and banter over?
You guys want Bailey

Kevin27nyi is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 09:58 PM
  #109
ChompChomp
SACK T-MAC
 
ChompChomp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Dallas, TX (Ugh)
Country: United States
Posts: 8,966
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin27NYI View Post
You guys want Bailey
We'll take Grabner

ChompChomp is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 10:03 PM
  #110
Inub0i
For the Alliance!
 
Inub0i's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: UC Irvine, Irvine
Country: United States
Posts: 8,638
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Inub0i Send a message via MSN to Inub0i Send a message via Skype™ to Inub0i
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChompChomp View Post
We'll take Grabner
Yes Please!
Kevin27NYI, what will it take?

Inub0i is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 10:07 PM
  #111
TheJuxtaposer
#Shorks
 
TheJuxtaposer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 26,596
vCash: 1379
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin27NYI View Post
You guys want Bailey
I want Bailey.

TheJuxtaposer is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 10:11 PM
  #112
Fistfullofbeer
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Fistfullofbeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Whidbey Island, WA
Country: India
Posts: 8,132
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TehJuxtaposer View Post
I want Bailey.
I want Baileys. Wait nvm .. already got it.

__________________
What?! Look, he thinks he's people!
Fistfullofbeer is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 10:55 PM
  #113
couturefan39
Registered User
 
couturefan39's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 1,071
vCash: 500
Whitney will probably stay in Phoenix, they are beginning to turn it around. If they win tonight (they are up 4-1 in the 3rd), they will crawl into the playoff picture.

I'm hoping the Lightning will struggle down the stretch. Would love to have one of Downie, Malone, Purcell, Moore. Brassard, Vermette or Umberger would be solid too.

couturefan39 is offline  
Old
02-07-2012, 11:44 PM
  #114
WTFetus
Moderator
Most popular combo
 
WTFetus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: San Francisco
Country: United States
Posts: 12,066
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
having a player re-sign with a team doesnt mean trades wont happen

see: Setoguchi
It doesn't really bode well for the organization if you extend an UFA only to trade him. It's a bit different with Setoguchi considering his rights belonged to the Sharks regardless.

WTFetus is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 08:30 AM
  #115
Barrie22
Shark fan in hiding
 
Barrie22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: ontario
Country: Canada
Posts: 9,287
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WTFetus View Post
It doesn't really bode well for the organization if you extend an UFA only to trade him. It's a bit different with Setoguchi considering his rights belonged to the Sharks regardless.
and it is also much different then trading a streaky 3rd line player who can fill in on the top 2 lines, for what could be in the future a norris candidate.

Barrie22 is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 10:15 AM
  #116
stalockrox
Registered User
 
stalockrox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,767
vCash: 500
Per Scott Howsen, Columbus has signed Prospal to a 1 year extentson...one more forward off the market.

Also, I love that the GM breaks news on twitter.

stalockrox is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 11:24 AM
  #117
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,785
vCash: 500
As players are re-signed our window to acquire anyone gets worse and worse. If it comes down to deadline day I assure you we are going to end up with 3rd rate guys at best (like Moen). At which point, honestly, I wouldn't waste the assets. Sharks will not win the cup with 3rd rate depth.

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:06 PM
  #118
magic school bus
***********
 
magic school bus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: San Jose, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 15,245
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
As players are re-signed our window to acquire anyone gets worse and worse. If it comes down to deadline day I assure you we are going to end up with 3rd rate guys at best (like Moen). At which point, honestly, I wouldn't waste the assets. Sharks will not win the cup with 3rd rate depth.
Sucks that we're waiting on other teams to fall put of the race so we can fill out our team. Hopefully DW fills the roster in the offseason so this doesn't happen again. It feels like he's waiting a long time to make his move, again.

If Moen is the best available, I hope he keeps the pick, but I'm worried he's going to make a trade anyways.

magic school bus is online now  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:27 PM
  #119
Fistfullofbeer
HFBoards Sponsor
 
Fistfullofbeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Whidbey Island, WA
Country: India
Posts: 8,132
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
As players are re-signed our window to acquire anyone gets worse and worse. If it comes down to deadline day I assure you we are going to end up with 3rd rate guys at best (like Moen). At which point, honestly, I wouldn't waste the assets. Sharks will not win the cup with 3rd rate depth.
This.

The part that sucks is that we dont get to hear much about this trade talk till the trade has already happened. So who knows whats going on.

Fistfullofbeer is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:30 PM
  #120
sjshrky27
Registered User
 
sjshrky27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: CA
Country: United States
Posts: 3,640
vCash: 500
Rumors starting up about Nash wanting out. Would be awesome for the Sharks to pick him up, plus I hear he is good friends with JT.

Sharks would have to give up alot to aquire him though.Dont know if it woule be worth it

sjshrky27 is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:33 PM
  #121
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,785
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
Sucks that we're waiting on other teams to fall put of the race so we can fill out our team. Hopefully DW fills the roster in the offseason so this doesn't happen again. It feels like he's waiting a long time to make his move, again.

If Moen is the best available, I hope he keeps the pick, but I'm worried he's going to make a trade anyways.
Yah, so much for "making moves earlier" eh? Though I don't totally blame him for that, I think parity has made the market abysmal. Even if he we had valuable assets, the price is likely too high. I haven't really seen any moves this year so far that I though "Man, I wish we had the assets to have made that move!" or "Why didn't DW make a better offer than that?!"

But waiting for teams to fall out is exactly what is going on. As more players become available, prices go down, however as prices go down, teams with more to offer will make their move. Hopefully DW surprises us, but I'm really, really, worried we are going to end up with (at best) a rental 3rd rate player :\

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:33 PM
  #122
Gilligans Island
Registered User
 
Gilligans Island's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: SF/Bay Area
Posts: 8,007
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjshrky27 View Post
Rumors starting up about Nash wanting out. Would be awesome for the Sharks to pick him up, plus I hear he is good friends with JT.

Sharks would have to give up alot to aquire him though.Dont know if it woule be worth it
Huge pass on Nash. Would destroy our cap / salary structure. Was discussed here a few weeks ago.

Regarding trades, thing is other than Detroit, every team seems to have holes and I'm not really convinced the Wings have what it takes to go far in the playoffs. We'd all love for DW to make a trade now but it takes two to tango and there are a lot of potential buyers right now.

Gilligans Island is online now  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:35 PM
  #123
hockeyball
Registered User
 
hockeyball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,785
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjshrky27 View Post
Rumors starting up about Nash wanting out. Would be awesome for the Sharks to pick him up, plus I hear he is good friends with JT.

Sharks would have to give up alot to aquire him though.Dont know if it woule be worth it
We simply don't have the assets or the moveable contracts. We can't afford a nearly $8m (overpaid) Nash unless we move one of JT (NMC, couterproductive), Marleau (NMC, lateral move), or Havlat (NTC, injury concerns). Even Havlat really doesn't clear enough cap space and we end up right back where we started. Overloaded on top-6, no bottom-6 depth.

So no on Nash, don't want that contract, don't see how he makes us better.

hockeyball is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:35 PM
  #124
Inub0i
For the Alliance!
 
Inub0i's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: UC Irvine, Irvine
Country: United States
Posts: 8,638
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Inub0i Send a message via MSN to Inub0i Send a message via Skype™ to Inub0i
This year's TDL is gonna suck. Most of the forwards we're after have either resigned or (like Ruutu's case) ask for way to ****ing much.

Inub0i is offline  
Old
02-08-2012, 01:36 PM
  #125
do0glas
Registered User
 
do0glas's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 6,381
vCash: 500
still hard for me to get my head around us going after a top 6. I guess someone would need to explain to me how it would help us.

do0glas is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:15 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.