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Trading Rivet cost us a playoff spot in 2007, would you still make the trade?

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Old
02-11-2012, 06:54 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
If Rivet is irrelevant, then... well, ok, never mind the preceding bit, then...

Your question is "is it better to be a seller and miss the playoffs or a buyer and make the playoffs"?

I'll take "make the playoffs". As the general goal. I'm thinking that's kinda what most teams try to do. They try to make the playoffs. It's the whole point of a competitive sport. And since we're throwing out the specific example of the case where we traded a specific non-contributing player for a pick that just happened to pan out big for us and a castaway player the other team didn't want who eventually turned into a core player for us... well, I agree that cherry-picked examples are irrelevant. You try to make the playoffs.

However, smart management walks the line as well, depending on the marketplace and its evaluation of the perceived odds of various outcomes. I think the Habs, save that winning streak by Halak in 2006 were perhaps in a situation not too much unlike our current one? Making the playoffs wasn't looking too good? Then Halak got them on the run. Then they ultimately muffed it in the last game anyway after Halak had already started to show some signs of pumpkin in previous games and Huet was back. It goes like that. This year, our odds of getting on a run and being within 1 point of a playoff spot don't look too good. But who knows.

I wouldn't go trading key assets like Plekanec or Cole or other guys who I think can make a big difference in whether we get back into the playoff race or not. But recognizing the odds, the free agent status of a few other lesser guys, I think it would be a low-risk proposition to move Gill and Moen. I think that they, like Rivet, *could* offer serious value to a playoff team, and make more of a difference once _in_ the playoffs than they do in terms of generating a late-season surge to compete for a playoff spot. If the deadline trade market was such that I could parlay that into some futures assets for us, I'd be ready to do it.

You can't turn a cherry-picked example that worked for us into a general rule to apply in all cases. And you can't apply a generalization to a specific situation either. In general, I want to see the team try to make the playoffs. In the specific case of this season, I want to see them "try", but would be willing to trade off whatever degree of contribution Gill and Moen might make towards that for a high enough futures payoff. Given that the odds of getting in the playoffs seem especially low at the moment, and that I perceive the impact of Moen and Gill (above whoever replaces their icetime in the lineup in particular) towards the goal of making the playoffs to be especially low as well.
wrong you trade assets like Cole and Pleks now , while they have value

we are going nowhere with or without them , no playoffs with this lineup

Cole at 34 this year will never play better than this and Pleks how many more years of 50-60 points do you want with no jam when the game is on the line .

we will go nowhere for 2-3 years these dudes cant help us then ...REBUILD NOW

nothing against him but we need major upgrades and it starts either with a top draft pick or some luck where a Rivet trade landed us a stud in Max .

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02-11-2012, 07:00 PM
  #102
Roulin
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Originally Posted by Patofqc View Post
The Rivet trade did not cost us the playoff. And i would do this trade anytime. The only good thing Bog Gainey did has a GM. The rest of his tenure was a disaster
Off the top of my head:

Balej + 2nd for Kovalev
Garon for Huet + Bonk
claimed Begin off waivers
the drafting during his tenure, especially 2005 and 2007

Obviously he made bad decisions too, the Gomez trade being the worst, but you can't say the Rivet trade was the only good one.

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02-11-2012, 09:30 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Why would a team pay a fortune to acquire any player at the deadline if there are no expected positive correlation between acquiring the player and the number of points in the standing? If a team acquire a player to help them make the playoff, its because they expect this player will make a difference in the final number of point in the standing.

There is definitely a correlation between upgrading/downgrading a lineup and the number of point in the final standing.

Of course its not possible to figure out the exact impact in in term of number of point and the expected result doesnt always meet the final result. But its possible to make an approximation of the expected range of point.

We could use stats covering every deadline trade in history. And see the general impact in term of points before and after the trade on buyer/seller team. We can also categorize them according to the kind of player that was traded.

In that case, i believe the positive impact to have Rivet over Gorges/Niinimaa was at least one point in the standing. SJ surely believed so and that's why they was ready to give us Gorges + a 1st for Rivet.
Yeah, well, if you remember that season at all, it was the team's play in January and February that precipitated the need for a change (Rivet struggled through Dec/Jan/Feb as well, mind you, and other defensemen started picking up some of his minutes night to night). As for the bolded point above, you might be interested to know that the Habs actually had a better record for the 17 games after the trade than they did for the 17 games immediately before the trade. Maybe the shakeup, and the fact that a beloved vet like Rivet was traded, actually spurred them to play better collectively to a greater degree than the loss of Rivet in the lineup negatively impacted them.

It was 3 unanswered goals in the second half of the game on April 7th that really caused us to miss the playoffs that year, and it's kind of ridiculous to conjecture as to the potential difference in outcome when discussing the impact of non-1st liners anyway. You're just playing games on paper, and that's not how it works at all.

But really, who cares? There are trades that make teams better now, and trades that make them better in the future. Sometimes you have to give up what's better now to get what's better later. And in this case, the value of the return is so exceedingly great given hindsight that I think it's foolish to question "what could have been" in this light, or whatever the OP's real point is here. Thought it was an okay move then, think it was a GREAT move now.


Last edited by Ohashi_Jouzu: 02-11-2012 at 09:36 PM.
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Old
02-11-2012, 09:57 PM
  #104
palindrom
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post

It was 3 unanswered goals in the second half of the game on April 7th that really caused us to miss the playoffs that year,
It was every game in the season that we didnt earn at least a point that cost us the playoff. The last game of the season didnt impact the ranking more than any other games.

I was well aware that Montreal finished the season on a good streak without Rivet, it happen often, even when team doesn't a make a move at all.
Thats why i suggested to study the historical impact of deadline trades: we need a big samples, a 17 games sample is too small a sample, one example doesn't make the rule.

Beside, you might be interested to know that with Rivet as their #01 defenseman, San Jose had a 13-3-4 record, improved from a 1.30ppg team to a 1.76ppg team.


Last edited by palindrom: 02-11-2012 at 10:15 PM.
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02-11-2012, 10:11 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
It was every game in the season that we didnt earn us at least a point that cost us the playoff. The last game of the season didnt impact the ranking more than any other game.

I was well aware that Montreal finished the season on a good streak without Rivet, it happen often, even with team who doesn't a make a move at all.
Thats why i suggested to study the historical impact of trade: we need a big sample, one example doesn't make the rule.
With all due respect, that's a bunch of blibber-blabber. All you have to know is that the Habs got two players who will prove to be worth more than Rivet ever was at their peaks, and will prove to get more years of service out of them than they could have expected to get out of Rivet if they kept him instead... AND shed salary at the time as well. There's really very little need to spearhead some charge toward a deeper study of "historical impact" than that, or search for "larger samples".

Distilled, it's simply a trade that should be made 9 times out of 10 if given the opportunity, imo; 10 out of 10 if we're allowed the advantage of hindsight in making the decision.

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02-11-2012, 10:13 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
With all due respect, that's a bunch of blibber-blabber. All you have to know is that the Habs got two players who will prove to be worth more than Rivet ever was at their peaks, and will prove to get more years of service out of them than they could have expected to get out of Rivet if they kept him instead... AND shed salary at the time as well. There's really very little need to spearhead some charge toward a deeper study of "historical impact" than that, or search for "larger samples".

Distilled, it's simply a trade that should be made 9 times out of 10 if given the opportunity, imo; 10 out of 10 if we're allowed the advantage of hindsight in making the decision.
+ Gorges was a BIG factor in the 3 round playoffs 2 years ago.

Maxpac will be an awsome power forward for years to come.

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02-11-2012, 10:21 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
With all due respect, that's a bunch of blibber-blabber. All you have to know is that the Habs got two players who will prove to be worth more than Rivet ever was at their peaks, and will prove to get more years of service out of them than they could have expected to get out of Rivet if they kept him instead... AND shed salary at the time as well. There's really very little need to spearhead some charge toward a deeper study of "historical impact" than that, or search for "larger samples".

Distilled, it's simply a trade that should be made 9 times out of 10 if given the opportunity, imo; 10 out of 10 if we're allowed the advantage of hindsight in making the decision.
You are reading too far, I never suggested the trade was bad, im only making the point the trade very likely cost us the playoff in 2007. (Trading Rivet+ for a short term upgrade instead of future asset was likely enough to make the playoff in 2007 but would leave us empty handed after that.)

Then i am asking the question did it worth it to miss the playoff one year for Gorges and a late first ? (it could have been a bust, a Esposito or a Perron, Getting a Pacioretty was beyond the usual expectation from a late first.) I dont really have opinion on the matter, that's why im asking your.


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02-11-2012, 10:50 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
You are reading too far, I never suggested the trade was bad, im only making the point the trade very likely cost us the playoff in 2007. (Trading Rivet+ for a short term upgrade instead of future asset was likely enough to make the playoff in 2007 but would leave us empty handed after that.)

Then i am asking the question did it worth it to miss the playoff one year for Gorges and a late first ? (it could have been a bust, a Esposito or a Perron, Getting a Pacioretty was beyond the usual expectation from a late first.) I dont really have opinion on the matter, that's why im asking your.
Okay, well if you put it like that, then we can approach it that way, too. Now, the decision the GM is faced with first of all, is whether or not to make a move. At this point, it's not about the return at all. If no moves were made, it's equally possible that we still miss the playoffs, given how January/February had gone that year.

So, like you said, if a move had to be made, then the decision is whether to go for short term help, or look for a return that depends/focuses more on the future. Maybe there simply weren't any deals that could have worked AND helped us better for a playoff run that year. Also have to remember that Gorges was holding down roughly the same minutes in San Jose that Rivet was in Montreal by that point (plenty of nights up over 20 mins), so I don't think they were worried about replacing Rivet's minutes as much as his leadership, experience, etc (never really relied on for "production").

But when you have the chance to grab someone's 1st round draft pick in exchange for that notion of leadership/experience (since, from an operational/managerial standpoint, the value is otherwise roughly equal), you grab that 9 times out of 10, imo, if you think there's enough of what you're giving up left in the dressing room, and if there are enough names in the draft that you like. And like I said earlier, given hindsight that goes up to 10 out of 10.

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02-11-2012, 11:00 PM
  #109
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I always thought it was a ridiculous five-on-three the leafs got with a weak call against Koivu that made us lose that spot. That and the fact that aside from Ryder and Higgins, Souray was our best scorer.

The regretful thing about 2007 is that we did not make an extra deal or two to acquire some more picks or prospects.


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02-11-2012, 11:07 PM
  #110
palindrom
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Okay, well if you put it like that, then we can approach it that way, too. Now, the decision the GM is faced with first of all, is whether or not to make a move. At this point, it's not about the return at all. If no moves were made, it's equally possible that we still miss the playoffs, given how January/February had gone that year.

So, like you said, if a move had to be made, then the decision is whether to go for short term help, or look for a return that depends/focuses more on the future. Maybe there simply weren't any deals that could have worked AND helped us better for a playoff run that year. Also have to remember that Gorges was holding down roughly the same minutes in San Jose that Rivet was in Montreal by that point (plenty of nights up over 20 mins), so I don't think they were worried about replacing Rivet's minutes as much as his leadership, experience, etc (never really relied on for "production").

But when you have the chance to grab someone's 1st round draft pick in exchange for that notion of leadership/experience (since, from an operational/managerial standpoint, the value is otherwise roughly equal), you grab that 9 times out of 10, imo, if you think there's enough of what you're giving up left in the dressing room, and if there are enough names in the draft that you like. And like I said earlier, given hindsight that goes up to 10 out of 10.
Just to rectify, in 2007 Gorges was often Scrached (even in Montreal, if i remember well) and averaged a full 4.30 minutes per game less than Rivet over the entire season.
Only 10 out of 47 games, gorges played more than 20 minutes.


Last edited by palindrom: 02-11-2012 at 11:16 PM.
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02-11-2012, 11:08 PM
  #111
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Not only would I have traded Rivet again for the exact same package, I would have shopped Souray, who would have got an even bigger return.

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02-11-2012, 11:12 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Not only would I have traded Rivet again for the exact same package, I would have shopped Souray, who would have got an even bigger return.
Souray was hot and his market value was up that year. 26 Goals and 64 points to finish that season. A huge opportunity lost there.

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02-11-2012, 11:19 PM
  #113
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The basic postulation of the OP is spurious.

I'll take a biased, redundant toughness or tanking thread over this one.

If we're going to blindly speculate, a thread about how many points will we beat/fall short of the last PO
spot is much more... savoury.

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02-11-2012, 11:51 PM
  #114
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The mistake was not trading Sourey also.

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02-12-2012, 01:43 AM
  #115
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Had we traded Souray, we may now got the big center that we desperately need.

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02-12-2012, 11:12 AM
  #116
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Rivet was one of my favorite Habs but I would do that trade over and over and over again...

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02-12-2012, 11:25 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Just to rectify, in 2007 Gorges was often Scrached (even in Montreal, if i remember well) and averaged a full 4.30 minutes per game less than Rivet over the entire season.
Only 10 out of 47 games, gorges played more than 20 minutes.
Rivet was definitely better than Gorges that year. Most Habs fans hated Gorges at first. He had nothing flashy, was on the small side, was getting pushed easily...

I'm the biggest Gorges fan, but he was mostly just a throw in so the Habs' defense wasn't completely depleted. Nobody expected him to become as good as he has.

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02-12-2012, 11:50 AM
  #118
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we had Bouillon, Komisarek, Souray, Streit, Markov, dandenault and Gorges (thats 7)


just for the lolz
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FEB 10 '07 OTT @ MTL 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 1 0.0 7 2:37 0

also
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