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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-12-2012, 11:39 PM
  #701
markrander87
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Originally Posted by VanIslander View Post
I'd draft Henrik two rounds before Daniel every time. I don't get your thinking...
Sorry I meant vice versa, either way my rationale stays the same.

I highly doubt LF would draft Daniel Sedin if Henrik was already selected.

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02-12-2012, 11:40 PM
  #702
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Do we know Foote's Norris voting record (I just searched the thread and it doesn't seem to be there). Or is it literally just nonexistent?

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02-12-2012, 11:43 PM
  #703
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Do we know Foote's Norris voting record (I just searched the thread and it doesn't seem to be there). Or is it literally just nonexistent?
IIRC, a a couple of occasions, he received a single vote (not first place), which doesn't meet the standard to be included on the list.

Edit: so basically nonexistent


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02-13-2012, 12:00 AM
  #704
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Sorry I meant vice versa, either way my rationale stays the same.

I highly doubt LF would draft Daniel Sedin if Henrik was already selected.
Depends on how appealing he looks compared to other players on the board, and if he filled a positional need.

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02-13-2012, 12:16 AM
  #705
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With the 293rd pick the Chicago Shamrocks select Bob Goldham, D.

Goldham should be a good partner for Art Ross, he's an elite shot blocker that brings size and toughness. More of a defensive defenseman, but still capable of chipping in a little on offense.


PMing next GM

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02-13-2012, 12:21 AM
  #706
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
With the 293rd pick the Chicago Shamrocks select Bob Goldham, D.

Goldham should be a good partner for Art Ross, he's an elite shot blocker that brings size and toughness. More of a defensive defenseman, but still capable of chipping in a little on offense.


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Heh, Bob Goldham-Art Ross was the 2nd pairing of my first ever ATD team.

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02-13-2012, 12:24 AM
  #707
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Sorry I meant vice versa, either way my rationale stays the same.

I highly doubt LF would draft Daniel Sedin if Henrik was already selected.
Then I hope you also believe that Espo and Orr MUST be together for Espo to be effective at all. If you believe that Espo can function without Orr, then you must also believe that Daniel Sedin can function without Henrik, as Espo never showed even close to the same level of dominance he displayed with Orr. Same goes for everybody.

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02-13-2012, 12:50 AM
  #708
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If I ever drafted Daniel Sedin, I would wait at least 4-5 rounds to draft Henrik. I really doubt anybody would draft Henrik after Daniel was already drafted.
Henrik was one option at centre on my second line, and I already have Paul Thompson as a LW

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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
With the 293rd pick the Chicago Shamrocks select Bob Goldham, D.

Goldham should be a good partner for Art Ross, he's an elite shot blocker that brings size and toughness. More of a defensive defenseman, but still capable of chipping in a little on offense.
Love that selection! Great pick.

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02-13-2012, 01:52 AM
  #709
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... If you believe that Espo can function without Orr, then you must also believe that Daniel Sedin can function without Henrik, as Espo never showed even close to the same level of dominance he displayed with Orr. ...
In the 72 Summit Series without Orr Espo was the leading scorer for Canada with 13 points. The third leading scorer for Canada Bobby Clarke had only 6 points.

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02-13-2012, 02:02 AM
  #710
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In the 72 Summit Series without Orr Espo was the leading scorer for Canada with 13 points. The third leading scorer for Canada Bobby Clarke had only 6 points.
I'm not disputing that Espo cannot function without Orr, though what you provided was a very small sample size in rather unusual circumstances. I'm just saying, you can't think one way without thinking the other way as well. After Espo was traded, he was still good in New York, but nowhere near the dominant level that he showed in Boston.

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02-13-2012, 02:42 AM
  #711
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Oh, I'm certain that the newspaper reporters missed many assists. But does that really distinguish them from the people who officially recorded assists for about the next, oh, 20 years?


There is a big difference between a journalist and someone whose job it is to record statistics. This is not a point that is even worth disputing.

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the results of this draft are becoming more clear with each round that goes by.
Eh? Because of Jack Crawford? He's a nice pick at this point, but let's not overrate Crawford too much here. Outside of the two all-star seasons, his only impressive all-star voting finish is the 5th place in 46-47, and his 2nd teamer in 42-43 was against a comically weak field.

Drop Jack Crawford in almost any other era, and he's almost certainly a one-time all-star (maybe 1st team...maybe 2nd), nothing more. The troika of Bouchard / Reardon / Stewart that were Crawford's competition in his best season are well below the average historically, so we have to take Crawford's tie with Bouchard in 1st place in perspective.

Tieing with Butch Bouchard is not really my idea of a Norris quality season. Also, those Bruins teams on which Crawford played a leading role (so, starting in 42-43) were very average defensively, and it wasn't because of the goalies or the forwards.


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02-13-2012, 03:01 AM
  #712
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Eh? Because of Jack Crawford? He's a nice pick at this point, but let's not overrate Crawford too much here. Outside of the two all-star seasons, his only impressive all-star voting finish is the 5th place in 46-47, and his 2nd teamer in 42-43 was against a comically weak field.

Drop Jack Crawford in almost any other era, and he's almost certainly a one-time all-star (maybe 1st team...maybe 2nd), nothing more. The troika of Bouchard / Reardon / Stewart that were Crawford's competition in his best season are well below the average historically, so we have to take Crawford's tie with Bouchard in 1st place in perspective.
Though Crawford was one of the top guys on my list of defensemen, the above is why he wasn't #1. Competition matters.

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02-13-2012, 03:09 AM
  #713
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How do you feel about Team Canada carrying a glut of centres every tournament? Honest question. Do you think that on any given year, they'd be better off with the 4th best natural LWer over the 5th best natural C? I'd say that on average, Canada probably brings 7 or 8 centres to those tournies.

I think the way national teams work is probably a closer comparison to the ATD than your average NHL team. It's a situation where you have enough elite options at centre that you can afford to have one of your best forwards on the wing instead of up the middle, which obviously isn't the case at the NHL level.

Again, I'm not saying that positions mean nothing, or that any player can move from one position to another with no problem. Skillset is important, and ideally, you want the guy to have at least played the position before. But I personally think there's more leeway than you're willing to give for positional movement, especially from centre to wing. I'd wager that there are plenty of elite NHL wingers who were playing centre as late as junior/college/AHL. I'm pretty sure Kessel would be one example of this.
agree

C's generally do not have trouble playing W. style of play is a bigger factor. some players like to carry the puck most of the time.

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"Walker played a wonderful game, and is certainly the best hockey player seen around here in a long time. He is superior to Nighbor, who was considered the best left wing player in the National Hockey Association last season. He scored three goals and assisted in several others." - Montreal Gazette - Jan. 8, 1914

Appears as Nighbor was playing LW before heading out west, and it wasn't just out on the coast.
i have never seen nighbor listed at anything but LW when he played for toronto. he seems to have usually been called "neighbor" in papers until he played for ottawa.

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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
With the 293rd pick the Chicago Shamrocks select Bob Goldham, D.

Goldham should be a good partner for Art Ross, he's an elite shot blocker that brings size and toughness. More of a defensive defenseman, but still capable of chipping in a little on offense.

PMing next GM
i saw a youtube video of some of the '54 finals which shows a rush by goldham. he was the 1st man in the offensive zone and the 1st below the goal line.

general idea of d-men not playing offense before orr is definitely exaggerated.

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02-13-2012, 03:56 AM
  #714
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If I ever drafted Daniel Sedin, I would wait at least 4-5 rounds to draft Henrik. I really doubt anybody would draft Henrik after Daniel was already drafted.
I think Henrik has plenty of value on his own.

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How do you feel about Team Canada carrying a glut of centres every tournament? Honest question. Do you think that on any given year, they'd be better off with the 4th best natural LWer over the 5th best natural C? I'd say that on average, Canada probably brings 7 or 8 centres to those tournies.
I think Devil has already addessed the question vis-a-vis Team Canada. I see it as a problem, yes. Just using last year's all-star voting at wing as a barometer, Henrik Zetterberg obviously has played a lot of center, and I believe that Martin St. Louis was a center until he reached the NHL, at least. There are two other undrafted LWs who received a few votes who definitely spent large portions of their careers at center. Nevertheless, by far the biggest portion of the votes went to players who have been on the wing for their whole careers.

So yes, some centers can obviously make the switch, but it is often a learning process, all the same, and there are definitely some that cannot. What we don't see in the statistics is all the times that position switching has been tried and abandoned because it was a failure.

For example, I know that one of the undrafteds in the above all-star voting was not good on the left wing in his first season there. In the ATD, we have always operated under the assumption that the players have a single season to adjust to their roles and come together as a team. I do not believe that a single season is enough, even for those who would ultimately succeed if given more time, for players to reach their peak production after switching positions. This is not a scenario where we get to take Nels Stewart and retrain him over his whole career to play the wing. We get the players as they are, and there is uncertainty in every position switch. This uncertainty has to be factored into how we value their performance.


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02-13-2012, 04:45 AM
  #715
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I think Devil has already addessed the question vis-a-vis Team Canada. I see it as a problem, yes.
With Team Canada, you've got guys that have played centre for years who are asked to make the switch without any time to make the adjustment.

If you put those same players in the same situation, but give them a reasonable amount of time to make the adjustment, you'd see much stronger results.

Quote:
Just using last year's all-star voting at wing as a barometer, Henrik Zetterberg obviously has played a lot of center, and I believe that Martin St. Louis was a center until he reached the NHL, at least. There are two other undrafted LWs who received a few votes who definitely spent large portions of their careers at center. Nevertheless, by far the biggest portion of the votes went to players who have been on the wing for their whole careers.

So yes, some centers can obviously make the switch, but it is often a learning process, all the same, and there are definitely some that cannot. What we don't see in the statistics is all the times that position switching has been tried and abandoned because it was a failure.
The vast majority of forwards in the NHL spent a large part of their days playing centre.

The OHL drafts about twice as many centres as wingers every year. That means that about half of those centres willl switch to the wing for their OHL careers.

The NHL then drafts about many more centre than wingers. Again, that means that even more of those centres will switch to the wing for their professional careers.

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02-13-2012, 04:56 AM
  #716
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Eh? Because of Jack Crawford? He's a nice pick at this point, but let's not overrate Crawford too much here. Outside of the two all-star seasons, his only impressive all-star voting finish is the 5th place in 46-47, and his 2nd teamer in 42-43 was against a comically weak field.
Crawford was effectively 5th in All Star voting twice - in 46-47 like you said, but also in 1941-42:

I've been trying to translate the early All Star voting into a usable format and this is what I have for 1941-42.

1. Earl Seibert (18, 6)
2. undrafted Hart Trophy winner (13, 12)
3. XXX (6, 4)
4. YYY (3, 7)
5. Jack Crawford (6, 3)
6. ZZZ (2, 6)
7. Art Coulter (3, 3)
8. Babe Pratt (2, 2)
9. Ott Heller (1, 3)

The first number is total number of 1st place votes (RD+LD), the second number is the total number of 2nd place votes. When going through the votes and trying to make sense of them, it really seems like the RD/LD thing doesn't really matter in terms of who is a first team and second team all star. It really does look like they just take the total number of 1st team votes added together to determine the first team all stars. Then they take the total number of 1st+2nd team votes to determine the second team All Stars.

IMO, any reasonable counting system would have given Jack Crawford the 2nd Team All Star in 1941-42 over YYY, but since 2nd Team is just total votes, without distinguishing how many voted for him in first, he was left on the outside. Regardless, he's close enough where I'm confident giving him the 5th place finish.

Indeed, the players voted Crawford a second team All Star in 1941-42:


Quote:
Drop Jack Crawford in almost any other era, and he's almost certainly a one-time all-star (maybe 1st team...maybe 2nd), nothing more. The troika of Bouchard / Reardon / Stewart that were Crawford's competition in his best season are well below the average historically, so we have to take Crawford's tie with Bouchard in 1st place in perspective.
Probably true.

Quote:
Tieing with Butch Bouchard is not really my idea of a Norris quality season. Also, those Bruins teams on which Crawford played a leading role (so, starting in 42-43) were very average defensively, and it wasn't because of the goalies or the forwards.
It wasn't a tie. This is the voting for 1945-46:
Jack Crawford, Bos (6-3-3-3); Butch Bouchard, Mtl (5-6-0-1); Ken Reardon, Mtl (2-0-4-1); Jack Stewart Det (3-8-3-3); Bill Quackenbush, Det (0-0-2-4);

We don't have point totals, but I can't conclude how you can think that's anything but a 1st place finish for Crawford. And yes, if it's the equivalent of a Norris trophy, it's obviously a weak one.

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02-13-2012, 05:04 AM
  #717
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The NHL then drafts about many more centre than wingers. Again, that means that even more of those centres will switch to the wing for their professional careers.
Yes, but in the ATD there is not the luxury of re-training players over a long period of time, which is what happens in juniors and in the NHL when guys switch positions. ATD position switches are strictly "out of the box".

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02-13-2012, 05:06 AM
  #718
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Though Crawford was one of the top guys on my list of defensemen, the above is why he wasn't #1. Competition matters.
Competition does matter, but compare Crawford's record to Bob Goldham who was recently drafted and praised as a good pick (which he was). I'm using All Star voting for both players (not Norris voting for Goldham) to make it apples-to-apples. I'll even completely wipe out Crawford's pair of 6th place finishes in the 1944 and 1945 war seasons like they never happened.

Crawford: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 8th
Goldham: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th

The competition in the early 50s when Goldham peaked was definitely better than the competition in the 1940s when Crawford peaked. But how much better was it? Enough to wipe out Crawford's 7th-8th place finishes (with a handful of votes) and reduce his 4 top 5 finishes by about 2 placements each? It's possible. But that's taking the harshest possible view of Crawford's competition.

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02-13-2012, 05:10 AM
  #719
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IMO, any reasonable counting system would have given Jack Crawford the 2nd Team All Star in 1941-42 over YYY, but since 2nd Team is just total votes, without distinguishing how many voted for him in first, he was left on the outside. Regardless, he's close enough where I'm confident giving him the 5th place finish.
I don't think the discrepancy is large enough that we can clearly say Crawford should have been an all-star this year, but your point is taken. At any rate, being the 5th best defenseman in what is likely the single worst non-war year at that position isn't really that impressive.

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02-13-2012, 05:10 AM
  #720
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I think Devil has already addessed the question vis-a-vis Team Canada. I see it as a problem, yes. Just using last year's all-star voting at wing as a barometer, Henrik Zetterberg obviously has played a lot of center, and I believe that Martin St. Louis was a center until he reached the NHL, at least. There are two other undrafted LWs who received a few votes who definitely spent large portions of their careers at center. Nevertheless, by far the biggest portion of the votes went to players who have been on the wing for their whole careers.
Right, because at the NHL level it usually makes more sense to play your best forward at centre, if they can pull it off.

But what I'm asking you is this: In a situation where there are a lot of excellent options at the centre position and fewer elite options at the wing position (Team Canada, ATD, NHL Allstar game, etc), what's wrong with playing a centre on the wing? Again, it obviously has to be the right guy playing the right kind of game.

If you have 5 Evgeni Malkins, would you rather have that 5th one in the lineup at wing, or have James Neal there instead? Neal is becoming an excellent player, but Malkin is the clear choice.

If NHL teams had this kind of centre depth, I think we'd see that all the time. If your centre has size, can skate, and is a legit goal scorer, there's a very good chance they can excel on the wing. Mats Sundin was a guy who showed he could play wing very well, but it just made no sense for him to do it on those Leaf teams. But there's no doubt it my mind that he would have been on Sakic or Forsberg's wing if Quebec/Colorado had kept him. I suspect the 3 or 4 extra centres Canada carries would probably make pretty excellent wingers in the NHL, but it just doesn't make sense for them to play wing in the context of an average NHL team.

I'm not saying we should be using anyone as a winger in the ATD. You want to play someone there who's at least shown they can play the position to some degree. But I think there's a lot more leeway than you're giving.


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02-13-2012, 05:20 AM
  #721
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If you have 5 Evgeni Malkins, would you rather have that 5th one in the lineup at wing, or have James Neal there instead? Neal is becoming an excellent player, but Malkin is the clear choice.
You are using an extreme example here, which is not reflective of the reality of this format. In the ATD, the choice is almost never between players of such different skill level, and ATD teams aren't so overflowing with talent that even 3rd lines are populated by all-star/HOF types. There are not that few strong scoringline wingers, especially at RW. I mean, the team with Stewart doesn't even have a 2nd line center yet. I see no reason why they need to shoehorn Nels into a wing role.

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02-13-2012, 05:28 AM
  #722
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Yes, but in the ATD there is not the luxury of re-training players over a long period of time, which is what happens in juniors and in the NHL when guys switch positions. ATD position switches are strictly "out of the box".
Who said there's no time to make adjustments? I must have been away when we decided that once the teams are picked, we assume they just jump on the ice right away. No time to meet your teammates. No time to impliment your team system. No time to develop chemistry. Wierd way of looking at it.....

In reality, we all assume the coach has time to impliment his system. We all assume the players have time to learn and master that system. We all assume the players come into this thing in peak form. We all assume that players have had the time to develop chemstry. We all assume players are given time to adjust to different roles on a team.

During that time, players can make their adjustments to new positions, right?

Quote:
There are not that few strong scoringline wingers, especially at RW.
While there are some decent scoring wingers left, none of them are even close to Stewart.

The question is, are those RWs better than the Cs that are also available?


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I mean, the team with Stewart doesn't even have a 2nd line center yet. I see no reason why they need to shoehorn Nels into a wing role.
Stewart's team has Stewart.... who can play centre, right?

He'll play where he's needed most, depending on who's available when we round out that line. Alf Smith can play either wing, and Stewart can play all 3 forward positions. I can just take the best player regardless of position.


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02-13-2012, 05:46 AM
  #723
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During that time, players can make their adjustments to new positions, right?
I believe the assumption has always been that an ATD season is just that...one full season, including pre and postseason. The teams have this much or this little time, depending on one's perspective, for the players and coaches to come together, implement their strategies and gel as a team. So yes...something of a crash course environment, which is why it has always been considered decorous to draft players and coaches whose styles are complementary, or in some way similar to their real-life parallels.

I am not of the opinion that very many players are capable of switching positions and reaching their full "theoretical" value at a new position within the span of a single season. Within a limited time window, there is always uncertainty with position switches, not just in the ATD, but in real life hockey. I think this uncertainty has to be factored into our valuations.

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02-13-2012, 05:51 AM
  #724
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I believe the assumption has always been that an ATD season is just that...one full season, including pre and postseason. The teams have this much or this little time, depending on one's perspective, for the players and coaches to come together, implement their strategies and gel as a team. So yes...something of a crash course environment, which is why it has always been considered decorous to draft players and coaches whose styles are complementary, or in some way similar to their real-life parallels.

I am not of the opinion that very many players are capable of switching positions and reaching their full "theoretical" value at a new position within the span of a single season. Within a limited time window, there is always uncertainty with position switches, not just in the ATD, but in real life hockey. I think this uncertainty has to be factored into our valuations.
Perhaps when you're moving a guy into a position that he's never played, there may be a longer adjustment period.

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02-13-2012, 07:09 AM
  #725
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Perhaps when you're moving a guy into a position that he's never played, there may be a longer adjustment period.
There is also the question of whether a player's "theoretical" value at a different position is the same as his actual value as his real-life position. It is a matter of speculation, perhaps, but if we go by the offensive results from the only season we know of in which Stewart got substantial time at the wing...well, they aren't probably what you'd like.

Nels Stewart's Vs2 points finish from the 1930-31 season is 81. You may complain that this is overreaching on a single data point, but this is the only data we have from a season where we know he played on the wing.


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