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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-13-2012, 06:45 AM
  #726
BM67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
There is also the question of whether a player's "theoretical" value at a different position is the same as his actual value as his real-life position. It is a matter of speculation, perhaps, but if we go by the offensive results from the only season we know of in which Stewart got substantial time at the wing...well, they aren't probably what you'd like.

Nels Stewart's Vs2 points finish from the 1930-31 season is 81. You may complain that this is overreaching on a single data point, but this is the only data we have from a season where we know he played on the wing.
That is right in the middle as far as his career goes. Ranks 8th of 15 seasons, and is above his career average of 78.65%.

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02-13-2012, 07:06 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
That is right in the middle as far as his career goes. Ranks 8th of 15 seasons, and is above his career average of 78.65%.
His career average isn't very relevant, but yes, that is his 8th best season Vs2. It is fairly average for his non-high-peak seasons, but like many players, Stewart had a high-peak which is a very important part of his value. His top-3 scoring seasons are 116, 100...87.

I guess the question becomes how much of that high peak is captured if you're playing him at wing, because the Nels Stewart who rumbled on with scoring finishes in the 70's-80's range for a lot of years is not the Nels Stewart you draft in top 120. If you want that at the wing, you're much better off taking Johnny Bucyk.

edit: by the way, arrbez, the above comparison is what I meant when I said that the ATD is not like an international (...all-star...) team. At any given place in the draft, the differences in talent available at center or wing are generally on the scale of Stewart vs. Bucyk, not Malkin vs. Neal. Stewart, as a center, was certainly a more effective scorer than Bucyk, but if he loses only some of his edge at the less-preferred position, it starts to look like you're better off with the natural winger.


Last edited by Sturminator: 02-13-2012 at 07:12 AM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 07:10 AM
  #728
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The Pittsburgh Bankers select RW Mike Gartner

Could someone please pm and tell the next GM there up.

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Old
02-13-2012, 07:20 AM
  #729
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
That is right in the middle as far as his career goes. Ranks 8th of 15 seasons, and is above his career average of 78.65%.
He played wing more than just one season. As we've already discissed, the D Line was fery fluid in terms of who played where.

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Old
02-13-2012, 07:28 AM
  #730
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Kazan selects C Walt Tkaczuk.


i think he is the best option to match up with the big power C's in my division: trottier, forsberg, stewart, lalonde, fredrickson. modano is not an ideal C in that sort of matchup.

tkaczuk was famously strong and tenacious. great checker, PKer and faceoff man, but also a good scorer who usually outscored his opposition at ES. well known for his battles with esposito and clarke.

when i saw a NYR vs TML game from '71 a few years ago, he looked big. i would have guessed 6'2, but he was only 6 feet tall. TML (NYR's opponent in that game) may have been a small team, though.


may as well post some things from the history section

voted best PKer in '74 coaches' poll, and was 2nd to clarke for hardest working player. also finished 3rd in a '81 players' poll for best defensive F. tkaczuk retired in '81 after an eye injury, iirc.

tkaczuk's prime was mostly before the selke, but he finished 5th in '80 and 6th in '78.


Last edited by nik jr: 02-13-2012 at 08:02 AM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 08:02 AM
  #731
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Tkaczuk had some offensive success. He led all forwards in ES points in 69-70.

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Old
02-13-2012, 08:17 AM
  #732
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Monsterbertuzzi listpicks Bobby Bauer.

Somebody please pm the next gm

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Old
02-13-2012, 09:21 AM
  #733
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I have the list for EB...

With our ninth selection, the 297th overall in this year All-Time Draft, l'équipe nationale de France est fier de sélectionner, from Kirkland Lake, Canada, le joueur de centre Ralph Backstrom




I am up next. I have my list narrowed down, but need a little more time. I'm busy at work, so it'll probably be an hour or two.

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Old
02-13-2012, 09:35 AM
  #734
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Just using last year's all-star voting at wing as a barometer, Henrik Zetterberg obviously has played a lot of center,
There's no need to use something that sketchy as a barometer. There have been faceoff stats for his whole career. Just look at how many faceoffs per game he took each season, and you'd have a good idea what percentage of each season he spent at center.

I know this doesn't /debate. just saying.

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02-13-2012, 09:39 AM
  #735
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
There's no need to use something that sketchy as a barometer. There have been faceoff stats for his whole career. Just look at how many faceoffs per game he took each season, and you'd have a good idea what percentage of each season he spent at center.

I know this doesn't /debate. just saying.
I know this isn't very relevant to the ATD, but a lot of people complain that Zetterberg hasn't played wing in so long that they don't understand why he still has the eligibility in Yahoo fantasy. He's definitely a way stronger center than wing here, I think, and for that matter, so is Datsyuk.. enough so that I don't think either should be played as wingers in the ATD (and with Datsyuk's faceoff ability, why would you play him at wing anyways?).

Looking back at data on NHL.com, Zetterberg has taken virtually the same amount of faceoffs as Datsyuk during their careers together (in some cases, more). They've basically played the same amount of center. Before the lockout, however, the faceoff data shows pretty clearly that Zetterberg played a lot of wing.

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02-13-2012, 09:40 AM
  #736
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i considered backstrom, and i have wanted to research him more, but he is like a lesser modano and i wanted to be able to match up with big F's.

it seems to be a common opinion that backstrom could have been a star if he had played for a different team that gave him a bigger role. he was a huge star in junior.


in '62, in addition to trade of harvey to NYR, beliveau, moore and henri richard missed a significant number of games (and geoffrion missed 8. all 4 were below a point per game.), but habs broke the record for goals by a team with 259. 2nd most was TML at 232.

shows the great depth of habs of that era.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
I know this isn't very relevant to the ATD, but a lot of people complain that Zetterberg hasn't played wing in so long that they don't understand why he still has the eligibility in Yahoo fantasy. He's definitely a way stronger center than wing here, I think, and for that matter, so is Datsyuk.. enough so that I don't think either should be played as wingers in the ATD (and with Datsyuk's faceoff ability, why would you play him at wing anyways?).

Looking back at data on NHL.com, Zetterberg has taken virtually the same amount of faceoffs as Datsyuk during their careers together (in some cases, more). They've basically played the same amount of center. Before the lockout, however, the faceoff data shows pretty clearly that Zetterberg played a lot of wing.
datsyuk only played mostly LW in '08. zetterberg played mostly LW in '03 and '04, and played both in '07, '11 and a small amount this season, but mostly C.

sort of funny that zetterberg was voted 2nd AS LW in '08 when he almost always played C.


Last edited by nik jr: 02-13-2012 at 09:45 AM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 10:19 AM
  #737
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Posts being deleted, sweet..

Anyway, good pick with Backstrom. Surprised to see you go with him EB since I specifically remember you having him before, but at this point, he is definitely hard to be passed on.

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Old
02-13-2012, 10:24 AM
  #738
Hawkey Town 18
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The Chicago Shamrocks are going to use this pick to really give some depth to our D by already selecting our 5th defenseman, with the 298th pick we select Ted Green, D

Another guy with a lot toughness, shot-blocking, and hitting, who can also contribute some offensively




PMing next GM

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:05 AM
  #739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Can you break this down by situation? I know Foote regularly saw time on the Colorado PP and I'm almost certain Lowe never stepped foot on the ice during the Edmonton PP.
Foote 1996-2006: 17.38 + 2.17 + 4.06 = 23.61
Ramsey 1982-1992: 18.37 + 1.19 + 3.45 = 23.01
Lowe 1982-1992: 16.55 + 0.90 + 3.21 = 20.66

According to this, it seems Lowe was the least-used in all situations among these three.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Who were they playing behind?
Lowe was behind Coffey every season, of course, but also:

1983: undrafted
1984: 2 undrafted
1985: undrafted
1986: 3 undrafted
1987: undrafted

**Coffey’s now gone**

1988: undrafted
1989: undrafted
1990: no one, he was the #1
1991: 4 undrafted
1992: 5 undrafted

Quote:
Exactly, one of the reasons I really have to question icetime. I mean it is something but hardly the end all be all.

Scott Stevens/Niedermayer is my favourite recent example.
What do you mean by this? Stevens from 1993-2004 averaged 24.50 minutes per game, Niedermayer averaged 23.13.

Niedermayer started to play more than Stevens as he entered his prime and Stevens aged, which is no surprise.

Still, the gap in their TOI (which was small) was fueled by Niedermayer getting a load of PP time and Stevens getting very little. Niedermayer took slightly longer before he was played more at ES than Stevens, which was more due to skating and matchups than overall ability, and from 1999-2004 the overall gap was a whopping 0.12 minutes per game anyway – safe to say that the eye test can easily override something that simple.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
Posts being deleted, sweet..
Posts that don’t contribute materially to the draft long-term are deleted on an ongoing basis. In your post’s case it was just made right before a cleanup was done so the deletion probably seemed, to you, rather abrupt.

Rest assured that post would have been deleted tonight or tomorrow anyway!

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:06 AM
  #740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nik jr View Post
i considered backstrom, and i have wanted to research him more, but he is like a lesser modano and i wanted to be able to match up with big F's.

it seems to be a common opinion that backstrom could have been a star if he had played for a different team that gave him a bigger role. he was a huge star in junior.
Didn't habs used him to check Esposito? i think Backstrom pretty succesfull against him

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:13 AM
  #741
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Posts that don’t contribute materially to the draft long-term are deleted on an ongoing basis. In your post’s case it was just made right before a cleanup was done so the deletion probably seemed, to you, rather abrupt.

Rest assured that post would have been deleted tonight or tomorrow anyway!
It's not like it wasn't related to the draft.

I didn't come in and say.."man..I was with this girl last night and we had ****ing shots at the club motha ****as!"

Should we delete your post here since it doesn't contribute materially to the draft long-term? You could just answer me in PM or on Facebook.

Frankly, this draft while it needs to be more material based..we are on a forum. I don't get why we have to make such a big deal over posts like that..especially from someone who doesn't spam these threads.

If the draft is going to be that strict and not allow a little fun (and don't get me wrong, I find researching and all that fun) then perhaps I don't understand the purpose of this draft anymore. I get we are looking at hockey's history and all that, but it's still a draft..not a book.

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:16 AM
  #742
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Still, the gap in their TOI (which was small) was fueled by Niedermayer getting a load of PP time and Stevens getting very little. Niedermayer took slightly longer before he was played more at ES than Stevens, which was more due to skating and matchups than overall ability, and from 1999-2004 the overall gap was a whopping 0.12 minutes per game anyway – safe to say that the eye test can easily override something that simple.
That is the point. Ice time is an indicator, but for players (like Stevens for example) who became specialists, you need the context. Team situation and the opponents matters a lot.

I guess I just don't feel as strongly about what ice time necessarily indicates as others do.

One reason is that we don't have the eye test to rely on for the majority of players in hockey history. And half the time we do have it, you deride it with the very limited numbers available, anyways.

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:30 AM
  #743
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West Island takes a guy with "West" in his name so it'll be easy to remember and so the fan base can relate to him.

Ed Westfall, RW

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:34 AM
  #744
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The Seattle Metropolitans will complete their top four by selecting a punishing hitter and talented offensive player..

D - Bert Corbeau

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:42 AM
  #745
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Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
The Seattle Metropolitans will complete their top four by selecting a punishing hitter and talented offensive player..

D - Bert Corbeau
Queue 70s going bananas over this pick..

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:48 AM
  #746
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
Queue 70s going bananas over this pick..
Yeah his peak isn't top notch, but I do like the longevity aspect and the style in which he plays.

By the end of it, I'm pretty confident the pick will pay off.

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02-13-2012, 11:54 AM
  #747
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Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
It's not like it wasn't related to the draft.

I didn't come in and say.."man..I was with this girl last night and we had ****ing shots at the club motha ****as!"

Should we delete your post here since it doesn't contribute materially to the draft long-term? You could just answer me in PM or on Facebook.

Frankly, this draft while it needs to be more material based..we are on a forum. I don't get why we have to make such a big deal over posts like that..especially from someone who doesn't spam these threads.

If the draft is going to be that strict and not allow a little fun (and don't get me wrong, I find researching and all that fun) then perhaps I don't understand the purpose of this draft anymore. I get we are looking at hockey's history and all that, but it's still a draft..not a book.
one-liners only very loosely related to the draft get cleaned up.

my reply to you would ultimately cleaned up too, if it wasn't part of a 5-part multi-post reply... which I recommend everyone does, particularly if they want their one liners and "nice pick" posts to remain.

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:56 AM
  #748
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Originally Posted by jarek View Post
Queue 70s going bananas over this pick..
Oh my god... Corbeau actually rose from last draft after all that?

"talented offensive player"? Jesus Christ.

bananas enough for you?

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:56 AM
  #749
Hawkey Town 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chaosrevolver View Post
The Seattle Metropolitans will complete their top four by selecting a punishing hitter and talented offensive player..

D - Bert Corbeau
Nice choice, I kept going back and forth between him and Ted Green for my last pick. I ultimately went with Green because I wanted a more defensive guy.

EDIT: Guess I missed the stuff from last year. I will say that if you wanted an offensive guy there were better choices out there. I'll be interested to learn more about Corbeau.

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Old
02-13-2012, 12:01 PM
  #750
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Oh my god... Corbeau actually rose from last draft after all that?

"talented offensive player"? Jesus Christ.

bananas enough for you?
I guess I didn't convince that many people that there's no concrete reason to think that Corbeau is anything special.

He's a player whose draft position seems to rest entirely on a a single line from the book Ultimate Hockey, in my opinion.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-13-2012 at 12:13 PM.
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