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Burke's Team - Not what he promised

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Old
02-14-2012, 12:05 AM
  #451
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Originally Posted by number72 View Post
So Burke is a below average drafter compared to other GMs.

But in Toronto, he has the world biggest nhl scouting team and an army of assistant GMs. Let's see if that is enough to bump him to average.
Pretty much, yes.

He's given no such details on anything to do with the scouting team. Are we to assume that Vancouver, Anaheim, and Hartford all had inferior scouting departments?That might just be a stretch of the imagination.

Biggest can mean anything, especially when you're dealing with a lawyer type in Burke. Biggest can mean biggest budget, most games watched, biggest office building, but in the end it speaks nothing to the individual and unique talent, ability, and expertise of each hired scout.

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02-14-2012, 12:11 AM
  #452
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Interesting.

If you ignore all of Burke's tank picks in the top three, since we've established we're never going to pick there again, he's only drafted Kesler, Legace, Bieksa, Umberger, Marek Malik, Nolan Pratt, Bryan Allen, Jarkko Ruutu. Perhaps Kadri, Gardiner, and Beleskey can be comfortably be added to the list.

That's about an 8-11 players who have been drafted outside of the top 3 and reached everyday status in the NHL under Burke's scouting watch. In the 15 drafts he participated in, with about 115 players picked, that amounts to about a 7-10% "success" rate, depending on one's own standards for such performance.

Can an old dog learn new drafting, scouting, and developmental tricks? Stay tuned in the next 2-3 years!
He may not be the best drafting GM, but he's probably one of the best trading GM's in the league, which makes up for it.

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02-14-2012, 12:16 AM
  #453
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I wouldn't say Burke is below avg. Looking at his record w/ the Canucks, he managed to grab some pretty good talent in his time. Nonis took over, and continued the stockpiling of talent for the Canucks. Beteen he and Nonis, they have a better record than quite a few GM's. I'd say it's a little too early to judge Burke just yet. But I like what we have in the pipeline.

It's going to take 2-3 years, maybe less before we start to see some results. By the sounds of it, Blacker is really close and, Kadri should stick full time next season. Guys like Ross, McKegg,Ryan, Devane and Crescenzi will be going into their first year w/ the Marlies next fall.

Patience is key. One of the youngest teams in the league, and likely to get younger in the next few seasons. Being in a position to fight for a playoff spot says a lot about the steps forward the team has taken. I'm not sure what else everyone expects from this team, at the moment.

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02-14-2012, 12:19 AM
  #454
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Pretty much, yes.

He's given no such details on anything to do with the scouting team. Are we to assume that Vancouver, Anaheim, and Hartford all had inferior scouting departments?That might just be a stretch of the imagination.

Biggest can mean anything, especially when you're dealing with a lawyer type in Burke. Biggest can mean biggest budget, most games watched, biggest office building, but in the end it speaks nothing to the individual and unique talent, ability, and expertise of each hired scout.
I know it's been mentioned to you, and you've replied back that there have been comments from scouts of other teams that Burkes guys are everywhere. Suggesting that he having more (better) assets in Toronto than his previous stops as GM is a stretch? Come the **** on, dude.

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02-14-2012, 12:23 AM
  #455
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I know it's been mentioned to you, and you've replied back that there have been comments from scouts of other teams that Burkes guys are everywhere. Suggesting that he having more (better) assets in Toronto than his previous stops as GM is a stretch? Come the **** on, dude.
Again, lawyer jargon can be used to spin anything in any which way.

I'd feel more comfortably knowing what individual scouts are reporting upwards; actual names and credentials.

Wal-mart is a pretty big operation but how good do they come through on the quality?

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02-14-2012, 12:47 AM
  #456
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Again, lawyer jargon can be used to spin anything in any which way.

I'd feel more comfortably knowing what individual scouts are reporting upwards; actual names and credentials.

Wal-mart is a pretty big operation but how good do they come through on the quality?
http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=42119

Do your own research.

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02-14-2012, 12:53 AM
  #457
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Looks like they actually brought in a totally different staff. Hopefully they had no prior working relationship with Burke in Anaheim or Vancouver. We can't settle with below average drafting outcomes. We're Big Blue, Big Buff.

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=498374

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02-14-2012, 01:17 AM
  #458
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Thanks, hockee.

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02-14-2012, 06:18 AM
  #459
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Looks like they actually brought in a totally different staff. Hopefully they had no prior working relationship with Burke in Anaheim or Vancouver. We can't settle with below average drafting outcomes. We're Big Blue, Big Buff.

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=498374
You consider Dave Morrison below average?



You make yourself so transparent sometimes.

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02-14-2012, 07:29 AM
  #460
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I didn't know that Burke traded those picks for Kessel. I thought he moved 2 1sts and a 2nd. But what do I know, since hindsight is something that everyone has.

Do you know which forwards Detroit already had when they drafted Zetterberg and Datsyuk?

Some guys by the name of Shanahan and Yzerman. They already had a very firm base in place, so there was no need to get a star player at the time.

But they did need a star forward prior to drafting those guys, and traded the following for him:


[/B]
Looks to me like Detroit traded a crap ton, including a high draft pick to get a star forward.

When Burke took over, our best forward was Antro. The only bright spot on the team was Toskala, Kaberle, Kubina and a few others, and we had just picked two good young players in Schenn and Kadri.

He made the Kessel trade because of two reasons:

1) The team had a solid tender, some good defensive players, and some good secondary scoring. Along with that squad, he added two more top 4 d's with a record of success. In that situation, you would have to think adding a top 15 forward would definitely give u a good shot at making the playoffs.


And if Toskala hadn't crapped the bed that year, I firmly believe we would have finished some where between 10th - 18th overall.

2) We did not have any marquee forward, or forward prospect what-so-ever. You can't just sit on your hands and wait for one of your prospect to miraculously turn into a 1st liner.

The only other alternative was to sell, and suck ass to get a top pick, which Burke has said he is against from day 1.

What Detroit did was first build a strong front office, make timely trades, stay competitive, and draft well.

What Burke has done is build a strong front office, make timely trades, tried to stay competitive, and put in a lot of resources toward drafting well.

How is it that you don't see what he's doing?

What you're doing is finding specific details, and saying why everything he does is not like Detroit, which is completely ludicrous.

He's following a model, not copy everything they do.

People just cant see past the end of their noses.



Completely agree with you. I was just pointing out one of the reasons why team is not complete yet.
You are aware that Detroit did a major "Tank" to get this (core) you talked about. Right?

Tosk was a bright spot when BB took over, REALLYY?????????????? holy bs.

Kubina was a bright spot?????? you mean the guy BB dumped for XLB? The top 4 guy we moved out to bring in another top 4 guy in Komi.

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02-14-2012, 08:51 AM
  #461
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You are aware that Detroit did a major "Tank" to get this (core) you talked about. Right?
.
They did?

when?

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02-14-2012, 09:02 AM
  #462
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They did?

when?
You can do your own research , it's all there in black and white.

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02-14-2012, 09:07 AM
  #463
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
They did?

when?
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1967–82: The "Dead Wings" era
Only a year after making the Finals, the Red Wings finished a distant fifth, 24 points out of the playoffs. It was the beginning of a slump from which they would not emerge for almost 20 years. Between 1967 and 1983, Detroit only made the playoffs twice, winning one series. From 1968 to 1982, the Wings had 14 head coaches (not counting interim coaches), with none lasting more than three seasons. In contrast, their first six full-time coaches – Art Duncan, Adams, Ivan, Jimmy Skinner and Abel – covered a 42–year period. During this dark era in franchise history, the team was derisively known as the "Dead Wings"[15] or "Dead Things".
One factor in the Red Wings' decline was the end of the old "development" system, which allowed Adams to get young prospects to commit to playing for Detroit as early as their 16th birthday. Another factor was Ned Harkness, who was hired as coach in 1970 and was promoted to general manager midway through the season. A successful college hockey coach, Harkness tried to force his two-way style of play on a veteran Red Wings team resistant to change. The Wings chafed under his rule in which he demanded short hair, no smoking, and put other rules in place regarding drinking and phone calls.[16] Harkness was forced to resign in 1973 ending the period colloquially referred to as, "Darkness with Harkness."
In the "expansion season" of 1967–68, the Red Wings also acquired longtime star left-winger Frank Mahovlich from the defending Cup champs in Toronto. Mahovlich would go on a line with Howe and Delvecchio, and in 1968–69, he scored a career-high 49 goals and had two All-Star seasons in Detroit.
But this could not last. Mahovlich was traded to Montreal in 1970, and Howe retired after the 1970–71 season. Howe returned to pro hockey shortly after to play with his two sons Mark and Marty Howe (Mark would later join the Red Wings at the end of his career) in the upstart World Hockey Association in 1972. Through the decade, with Mickey Redmond having two 50–goal seasons and Marcel Dionne starting to reach his prime (which he did not attain until he was traded to the Los Angeles Kings), a lack of defensive and goaltending ability continually hampered the Wings.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Red_Wings

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1966–67 5th, NHL Did not qualify
1967–68 6th, East Did not qualify
1968–69 5th, East Did not qualify
1969–70 3rd, East Lost in Quarterfinals, 0–4 (Black Hawks)
1970–71 7th, East Did not qualify
1971–72 5th, East Did not qualify
1972–73 5th, East Did not qualify
1973–74 6th, East Did not qualify
1974–75 4th, Norris Did not qualify
1975–76 4th, Norris Did not qualify
1976–77 5th, Norris Did not qualify
1977–78 2nd, Norris Won in Preliminary Round, 2–0 (Flames) Lost in Quarterfinals, 1–4 (Canadiens)
1978–79 5th, Norris Did not qualify
1979–80 5th, Norris Did not qualify
1980–81 6th, Norris Did not qualify
1981–82 6th, Norris Did not qualify
1982–83 5th, Norris Did not qualify
1983–84 3rd, Norris Lost in Division Semifinals, 1–3 (Blues)
1984–85 3rd, Norris Lost in Division Semifinals, 0–3 (Black Hawks)
1985–86 5th, Norris Did not qualify

That said, I don't want to Leafs to go through a long term tank to get better. We have been bad enough for 6 years, I want playoff hockey! Anything can happen in the post season.

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02-14-2012, 10:24 AM
  #464
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Originally Posted by Kessly Snipes View Post
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Red_Wings




That said, I don't want to Leafs to go through a long term tank to get better. We have been bad enough for 6 years, I want playoff hockey! Anything can happen in the post season.

That's one hell of a tank.

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02-14-2012, 11:36 AM
  #465
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Originally Posted by Kessly Snipes View Post
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Red_Wings




That said, I don't want to Leafs to go through a long term tank to get better. We have been bad enough for 6 years, I want playoff hockey! Anything can happen in the post season.
and that twenty-year tank gave them exactly one star piece (Yzerman) and one other decent piece (Primeau).

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02-14-2012, 11:37 AM
  #466
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and that twenty-year tank gave them exactly one star piece (Yzerman) and one other decent piece (Primeau).
You just asked when they tanked, I provided that for you.

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02-14-2012, 11:37 AM
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yep, and you showed that their "tank" didn't really have much part in building the core of their dynasty of the last 20 years.

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02-14-2012, 11:40 AM
  #468
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yep, and you showed that their "tank" didn't really have much part in building the core of their dynasty of the last 20 years.
Where did I say it did?

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Originally Posted by Faltorvo View Post
You are aware that Detroit did a major "Tank" to get this (core) you talked about. Right?
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
They did?

when?
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Originally Posted by Faltorvo View Post
You can do your own research , it's all there in black and white.

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02-14-2012, 11:52 AM
  #469
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I didn't say you did, I was responding to Faltorvo, who said: "You are aware that Detroit did a major "Tank" to get this (core) you talked about."

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02-14-2012, 02:55 PM
  #470
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Interesting.

If you ignore all of Burke's tank picks in the top three, since we've established we're never going to pick there again, he's only drafted Kesler, Legace, Bieksa, Umberger, Marek Malik, Nolan Pratt, Bryan Allen, Jarkko Ruutu. Perhaps Kadri, Gardiner, and Beleskey can be comfortably be added to the list.

That's about an 8-11 players who have been drafted outside of the top 3 and reached everyday status in the NHL under Burke's scouting watch. In the 15 drafts he participated in, with about 115 players picked, that amounts to about a 7-10% "success" rate, depending on one's own standards for such performance.

Can an old dog learn new drafting, scouting, and developmental tricks? Stay tuned in the next 2-3 years!
Interesting.

Might I ask what your criterion is for "everyday status" (min games in a season, or % of games, or #/% of minutes)? What's the league average "success rate" over this period?

I know I've seen some examinations of the data that place Burke's percentage at or just below the league average (as you did), but I haven't seen anything that reaches as low as 7%, though the stuff I read excluded the most recent five or six years since most selections in those drafts wouldn't have had a chance to play a large sample size of games and become NHL "regulars".

I'm going to run some numbers myself, but I was just wondering. :3

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02-14-2012, 03:37 PM
  #471
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Interesting.

Might I ask what your criterion is for "everyday status" (min games in a season, or % of games, or #/% of minutes)? What's the league average "success rate" over this period?

I know I've seen some examinations of the data that place Burke's percentage at or just below the league average (as you did), but I haven't seen anything that reaches as low as 7%, though the stuff I read excluded the most recent five or six years since most selections in those drafts wouldn't have had a chance to play a large sample size of games and become NHL "regulars".

I'm going to run some numbers myself, but I was just wondering. :3
Everyday status is reaching a benchmark of 300 games for established players. The average GM success rate is around 15-17% and Burke's is considerably lower, below average. You haven't seen anything as low as 7% because I omitted his top-3 (we'll call them no-brainers) picks of Bobby Ryan, Chris Pronger, and the Sedins. Why did I do this? Well, it should be obvious. Brian Burke's philosophy here is to trade his way out of picking elite talent like Bobby Ryan, the Sedins, Pronger, the kind of surefire picks that have been his bread and butter in the NHL. I want to pick there, but it matters not what I think, but at least I can analyze his record outside of picking in the lottery.

Outside of the top-3 picks, his drafting record is pretty scary. He has a tendency to go for, no surprise, truculent and tenacious late round players who have poor skating and skill.

His drafts with Anaheim, outside of Bobby Ryan, are looking very poor right now. Jake Gardiner might help his record there. 28 non-top-3 picks, one rookie for the Leafs, and Beleksey looks like an AHL/role player. I'll give him 2 there. 7%

His Vancouver record, again, if you take out the no brainer picks is similarly poor. He drafted good players in Kesler and Bieksa, a tweener in Umberger, and a few role players like Ruutu, and Bryan Allen. Out of 40 non-top-3 picks, 2 good players, one average, and two role players. 12.5%

So far with the Leafs he hasn't obviously developed anything that would reach everyday status yet, but Kadri appears like he will be an NHL player, and Blacker is showing good potential, too. It's too early to talk about his Leafs drafts but, so far, he's only delivered 49 games out all his drafts from 2009 to present time. Philadelphia has gotten more than that from their draft just last year.

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02-14-2012, 03:42 PM
  #472
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Everyday status is reaching a benchmark of 300 games for established players. The average GM success rate is around 15-17% and Burke's is considerably lower, below average. You haven't seen anything as low as 7% because I omitted his top-3 (we'll call them no-brainers) picks of Bobby Ryan, Chris Pronger, and the Sedins. Why did I do this? Well, it should be obvious. Brian Burke's philosophy here is to trade his way out of picking elite talent like Bobby Ryan, the Sedins, Pronger, the kind of surefire picks that have been his bread and butter in the NHL. I want to pick there, but it matters not what I think, but at least I can analyze his record outside of picking in the lottery.

....
What are the other GM's averages when you factor in their lottery picks? You must have factored them out just like you did Burke in order to make a fair comparison, right?

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02-14-2012, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Everyday status is reaching a benchmark of 300 games for established players. The average GM success rate is around 15-17% and Burke's is considerably lower, below average. You haven't seen anything as low as 7% because I omitted his top-3 (we'll call them no-brainers) picks of Bobby Ryan, Chris Pronger, and the Sedins. [...] It's too early to talk about his Leafs drafts but, so far, he's only delivered 49 games out all his drafts from 2009 to present time. Philadelphia has gotten more than that from their draft just last year.
That 300 game benchmark was the same benchmark I had been using, hmm. I'll have to see if he dropped off in recent years, because in the first few years he wasn't exactly outside of the 'league average' (and that's including the 1993 "gimme" year where he had a lottery pick and 22/26 1st-round picks made it -- he actually found himself WELL ahead of the curve in 1993). Removing his "no brainer" picks might also make him look worse relative to other GMs, especially for a year like 1999 where he snagged the Sedins and over half of the GMs in the league picked busts.

One of the pieces I had been looking at (the PPP) removed the Top 5 picks and found him to be sitting at 9.5% (versus the league average of 12.8%), but I'll be doing a little more data mining to look into it (I'd like to see how he did on a round-by-round basis, for example). (Edit: I think their league average figures included a wider swathe of years, as well, instead of comparing the same years, but I'd have to look it up again to see.)

I think you have to stop at 2006 or 2007 if you're using a 300 game threshold, which would exclude nearly all of his Anaheim picks in addition to the Leafs picks... perhaps it might be best to see which of those players have played at least 82 NHL games (or 300 between the NHL and AHL).

It's always fun to look at the numbers. I'll share mine when I finish.

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02-14-2012, 04:20 PM
  #474
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It's always fun to look at the numbers. I'll share mine when I finish.
I'm on the road right now but I'm thinking about making a thread about it when I get the time; comparing non-lottery pick success around the league.

Duty calls right now.

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02-14-2012, 04:36 PM
  #475
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Originally Posted by PresidentCamacho View Post
Everyday status is reaching a benchmark of 300 games for established players. The average GM success rate is around 15-17% and Burke's is considerably lower, below average. You haven't seen anything as low as 7% because I omitted his top-3 (we'll call them no-brainers) picks of Bobby Ryan, Chris Pronger, and the Sedins. Why did I do this? Well, it should be obvious. Brian Burke's philosophy here is to trade his way out of picking elite talent like Bobby Ryan, the Sedins, Pronger, the kind of surefire picks that have been his bread and butter in the NHL. I want to pick there, but it matters not what I think, but at least I can analyze his record outside of picking in the lottery.

Outside of the top-3 picks, his drafting record is pretty scary. He has a tendency to go for, no surprise, truculent and tenacious late round players who have poor skating and skill.

His drafts with Anaheim, outside of Bobby Ryan, are looking very poor right now. Jake Gardiner might help his record there. 28 non-top-3 picks, one rookie for the Leafs, and Beleksey looks like an AHL/role player. I'll give him 2 there. 7%

His Vancouver record, again, if you take out the no brainer picks is similarly poor. He drafted good players in Kesler and Bieksa, a tweener in Umberger, and a few role players like Ruutu, and Bryan Allen. Out of 40 non-top-3 picks, 2 good players, one average, and two role players. 12.5%

So far with the Leafs he hasn't obviously developed anything that would reach everyday status yet, but Kadri appears like he will be an NHL player, and Blacker is showing good potential, too. It's too early to talk about his Leafs drafts but, so far, he's only delivered 49 games out all his drafts from 2009 to present time. Philadelphia has gotten more than that from their draft just last year.
Holland is at what, 10.9% (ignoring the past 4 years)

EDIT - Geez I've just started looking and if you remove lottery picks and the past 4 years (pretty hard to play 300 games in your first 4 years), these are your early results:

Lamoriello 16.7%
Regier 16.3%
Lombardi 15.1%
Wilson 13.6%
Poile 12.9%
Holland 10.9%
Chiarelli 0%
Shero 0%
Tallon 0%

I'm starting to wonder who the wizards are that make the average 15 - 17 %? So far I've found three who even fall within the stated average, let alone above to make the "average".


Last edited by eyeball11: 02-14-2012 at 08:01 PM.
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