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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread IV

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Old
02-13-2012, 09:45 PM
  #901
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
True, but you have in part allowed for this by starting at #2, there really isn't a need to remove non-outlier outliers. You really shouldn't remove anyone just because of their name. The question is does this players point total distort the results beyond what a "normal" player would.



It is just as valid to ask if the effect is that small, why make make the change. It is small in this case and "no biggy", but it certainly isn't in the case of 1988-89.
I don't think you can have coherent results in 1988-89 if you compare to #2. Recently, we compared Yzerman's 1989 season with Jagr's 1999 and the general consensus on the HOH board was that they were close. Yet by your system, Yzerman's season would get a score of 92, while Jagr's would get a score of 119. That doesn't pass the smell test.

Using my preferred method (if #2 is an obvious outlier, use the first non-outlier, not the #2 non outlier like 70s), you would compare Yzerman to #5 and his score would be 135. It's not perfect, but it's better IMO.


Quote:
No, Bossy should be you #2, if he is the next "acceptable" guy after the actual #2. You have gone a step too far by basically removing the #1 twice. Again in this case "no biggy", but you may have gone too far already getting down to Bossy, then you do go too far with that extra step.
You've convinced me on this one though. There is absolutely no reason to go beyond #2 if you are doin a #2 comparison if #2 is not an obvious outlier.

In my future #2 comparisons (for post expansion seasons), I will use sturm's method of comparing to #2 at all times unless #2 is more than 10% above #3. Then I go down to #3. The one exception is 1989, where using 1-4 just doesn't make sense IMO. The 70s Bruins might be another problem - I still haven't figured out how to deal with them.


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-13-2012 at 09:51 PM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 10:10 PM
  #902
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
not for me , for me the reasons are between:

weak era at the top
top players weak mentally (inconsistant year from year as far as being the very best)
top players weak physically(injury prone)

The bell curve disagree with your theory and conclusion.
But if all the players at the top are at about the same high level of skill, shouldn't changes in the top be expected year to year? Moreover, the top-20 hasn't fluctuated much since the lockout. Aside from guys retiring, or leaving their prime due to age, it's been relatively consistent, with few exceptions.. so I really don't know what you're talking about.

As far as the top players being weak physically.. really? REALLY? Why are you even using this as an argument? The players are bigger and faster than ever before, naturally injuries will occur more frequently. Regardless.. which of the top players, pray tell, have a history of injuries? Malkin and Crosby are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head.

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Old
02-13-2012, 10:11 PM
  #903
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't think you can have coherent results in 1988-89 if you compare to #2. Recently, we compared Yzerman's 1989 season with Jagr's 1999 and the general consensus on the HOH board was that they were close. Yet by your system, Yzerman's season would get a score of 92, while Jagr's would get a score of 119. That doesn't pass the smell test.

Using my preferred method (if #2 is an obvious outlier, use the first non-outlier, not the #2 non outlier like 70s), you would compare Yzerman to #5 and his score would be 135. It's not perfect, but it's better IMO.




You've convinced me on this one though. There is absolutely no reason to go beyond #2 if you are doin a #2 comparison if #2 is not an obvious outlier.

In my future #2 comparisons (for post expansion seasons), I will use sturm's method of comparing to #2 at all times unless #2 is more than 10% above #3. Then I go down to #3. The one exception is 1989, where using 1-4 just doesn't make sense IMO. The 70s Bruins might be another problem - I still haven't figured out how to deal with them.
The numbers aren't really an argument themselves though, everything has to be in context. 119% and 92% of what? 119% of Selanne vs 92% of Gretzky. Doesn't seem that bad really.

I did post earlier the thought of using the average of #3-5, 140 points. That would make it 111 for Yzerman, and that seems like a decent number.

Something like that might work for 70-71. One would want to look at the number you get for #5, #10, #15, #20 and compare to the seasons around it, to see if it works.

I'd like to get a system that uses team point leaders, or the #2s, but trades mess it up. I trade my scoring leader for your scoring leader, leaves the #2 scorer on each of our teams as the team leader. Lanny McDonald scores more points than anybody else that plays in NJ or Calgary, but isn't the leading scorer of either team, plus the two guys he was traded for score more points than the guy leading NJ in points.

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02-13-2012, 10:21 PM
  #904
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Originally Posted by jarek View Post
But if all the players at the top are at about the same high level of skill, shouldn't changes in the top be expected year to year? Moreover, the top-20 hasn't fluctuated much since the lockout. Aside from guys retiring, or leaving their prime due to age, it's been relatively consistent, with few exceptions.. so I really don't know what you're talking about.

As far as the top players being weak physically.. really? REALLY? Why are you even using this as an argument? The players are bigger and faster than ever before, naturally injuries will occur more frequently. Regardless.. which of the top players, pray tell, have a history of injuries? Malkin and Crosby are the only ones I can think of off the top of my head.
When I talk about top players , I don't talk about the top 10 or 5 , I talk about the very top.Took you all this arguing to figure this out?

Malkin and Crosby being injured is pretty much 2/3 of players who had the potential to step up and dominate for a good 5 years ahead of everybody.Ovechkin slowed down instead of stepping up , Crosby stepped up then got hurt , Malkin is there , and we are watching , no just this year , but in the next 3 years.He has a shot at proving my point that this era was weak until someoneone stepped up and turned it into a decent one by dominating.

When I say ''weak era'' i dont talk about the era as a whole , but since all my conversation for 3 pages were about TOP TOP TOP TOP TOP players , I didn't thought I had to explain myself at every posts.

I'm going to sleep now.Good night everybody.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 02-13-2012 at 10:26 PM.
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Old
02-13-2012, 10:56 PM
  #905
Hawkey Town 18
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With the 309th pick, the Chicago Shamrocks are pleased to select Marty Pavelich, LW

Elite defensive forward assigned to check Rocket Richard. One of only 5 players to be on the 50's Detroit Red Wings for all 4 of their Cup wins (Howe, Lindsay, Kelly, Pronovost). Awarded the Retro Selke 5 consecutive seasons (53'-57').

More to come in a bio later.


PMing next GM

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02-13-2012, 11:04 PM
  #906
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
With the 309th pick, the Chicago Shamrocks are pleased to select Marty Pavelich, LW

Elite defensive forward assigned to check Rocket Richard. One of only 5 players to be on the 50's Detroit Red Wings for all 4 of their Cup wins (Howe, Lindsay, Kelly, Pronovost). Awarded the Retro Selke 5 consecutive seasons (53'-57').

More to come in a bio later.

PMing next GM
Hopefully you'll find some new info on him, because Pavelich always been a guy that intrigued me. However, if you take out the book 'Ultimate Hockey' and a few quote from his coach, there's really nothing more available. I think he gets alot of mileage from his retro Selke. Really looking forward to a nice biography!

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:24 PM
  #907
Hawkey Town 18
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Hopefully you'll find some new info on him, because Pavelich always been a guy that intrigued me. However, if you take out the book 'Ultimate Hockey' and a few quote from his coach, there's really nothing more available. I think he gets alot of mileage from his retro Selke. Really looking forward to a nice biography!
Here's a few quick ones I found while researching him today...

Quote:
In a way, Pavelich was long over-due for such a snugly fitting hero's mantle. Recognized as one of the greatest penalty-killers in the game, he has never been a prolific scorer. Blessed with fine puck sense and great speed there have been scores of times when he has, by his own alertness, created such opportunities as he had last night-but not with the same result
The Windsor Daily Star - April 1, 1955


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And where Adams thought Marty Pavelich was finished. Hell, Marty could have played another five years. He was one of the best defensive hockey players in the National Hockey League.
Ted Lindsay - The Gods of Olympia Stadium


Quote:
Marty Pavelich was very intelligent-probably one of the most intelligent hockey minds that was never utilized by coaching or anything like that.
Ted Lindsay - The Gods of Olympia Stadium


Quote:
The former general manager of Dallas, Bob Gainey, used Marty as the epitome of what it means to be a two-way forward when he played for Montreal
The Gods of Olympia Stadium


Quote:
For a time, it was my job to stop the Rocket. But then, very quickly after that, because we had the Production Line, Marty Pavelich took over. Marty could put the Rocket to sleep a little bit because he was a diplomat. He didn't rile him. Marty would say, "He's great enough. I don't want to get him angry and make him greater, so I'll kind of try to subdue him a little bit."
Ted Lindsay - The Gods of Olympia Stadium


Quote:
So every night, these guys-Pavelich, xxxx, and xxxx-played against the best players the other team had. But besides stopping them, these guys, our checking line, they'd each end up with anywhere from eight to 12 goals a year. That was a tremendous advantage for the Detroit Red Wings.
Ted Lindsay - The Gods of Olympia Stadium


Quote:
Pavelich is one of the key men around whom we built our hockey club
Jack Adams - Detroit Red Wings Greatest Moments and Players

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Old
02-13-2012, 11:47 PM
  #908
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
When I talk about top players , I don't talk about the top 10 or 5 , I talk about the very top.Took you all this arguing to figure this out?

Malkin and Crosby being injured is pretty much 2/3 of players who had the potential to step up and dominate for a good 5 years ahead of everybody.Ovechkin slowed down instead of stepping up , Crosby stepped up then got hurt , Malkin is there , and we are watching , no just this year , but in the next 3 years.He has a shot at proving my point that this era was weak until someoneone stepped up and turned it into a decent one by dominating.

When I say ''weak era'' i dont talk about the era as a whole , but since all my conversation for 3 pages were about TOP TOP TOP TOP TOP players , I didn't thought I had to explain myself at every posts.

I'm going to sleep now.Good night everybody.
Your idea of what an "era" stands for makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The "era" defines everyone that played in a specific time period, not 2-3 players. I really have no words to describe this.

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Old
02-14-2012, 04:10 AM
  #909
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I've drafted this guy about a billion times now, give or take. At least 4, anyhow. But he just has such a great skill set for a #4 defenseman in this. A stay-at-home shut-down defenseman who skated very well, had good size, moved the puck quite well, and played a *clean* physical game. In other words, the picture perfect partner for Georges Boucher.

His ~25 point average per season certainly wasn't helping make allstar teams against exceptionally strong mid-70's competition, but he received plenty of recognition for his defensive work. He was annually featured in the NHL allstar game, an impressive feat for a defenseman with little offense. He was selected to perhaps the greatest national team ever in 1976, and played very well until being sidelined for the rest of the tournament after having a shot break his facebone. Although not one to join the rush, he had a penchant for scoring big goals, and was famous for his ability to play through pain and injury. The top defenseman on the almost-dynasty Flyers:

With pick #310, Inglewood selects:

Jimmy Watson


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02-14-2012, 06:25 AM
  #910
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Here's a few quick ones I found while researching him today...
I've read all the section on Marty Pavelich in the Gods of Olympia, which was very interesting. The quotes you gave are nice, but I'm unsure if it ranks him closer to Claude Provost, than the rest of the undrafted defensive wingers. The same quote you gave can be found for all those unselected players.

Don't get me wrong, I love Martin Pavelich and if Frank Patrick was taken, very good chance he would of been my selection. However, I might have overrated him, thinking of him as the LW version of Claude Provost, while he's probably closer to the defensive winger that are selected right now.

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Old
02-14-2012, 07:00 AM
  #911
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We'll select who we think is the best winger for Sergei Fedorov, a lightning quick, playmaking left winger who was also known as being gritty.

Herbie Lewis, LW

Here is the bio TDMM created for him last year.

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02-14-2012, 08:32 AM
  #912
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selects

Tod Sloan C

SEASONS 13
RS:745 220 262 482 831
PO:47 9 12 21 47

OHA-Jr. MVP (1946)
NHL Second All-Star Team (1956) Played in NHL All-Star Game (1951, 1952, 1956)
Stanley Cups 2


Coach: Scotty Bowman

Bobby Hull-Max Bentley-Cam Neely
xxxxxxxxxx-Darryl Sittler-xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx-Tod Sloan-xxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx-Doug Jarvis-xxxxxxxxxxx

Carl Brewer-Nikolai Sologubov

Turk Broda


Last edited by Leaf Lander: 02-14-2012 at 09:11 AM.
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Old
02-14-2012, 10:25 AM
  #913
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I'll take two-way right wing sniper, Danny Gare

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02-14-2012, 10:32 AM
  #914
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Falcons takes Pit Lepine, C

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Old
02-14-2012, 10:39 AM
  #915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
selects

Coach: Scotty Bowman

Bobby Hull-Max Bentley-Cam Neely
xxxxxxxxxx-Darryl Sittler-xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx-Tod Sloan-xxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx-Doug Jarvis-xxxxxxxxxxx

Carl Brewer-Nikolai Sologubov

Turk Broda
Just my opinion:

-Jarvis is much more suited to the third line and Sloan to the 4th.
-You might want to consider using Sloan on RW (which I think he's elgibile for, but look into it more). Drafting 4th line C before a single second or third line wing or #3 defenseman seems..flawed.

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02-14-2012, 10:52 AM
  #916
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
I'm not thinking dick when I read your posts, I'm thinking Ogopogo.
That’s cold, man.

Ogopogo thinks all top-10 or top-20 finishes are created equal. That was me like three years ago.

Quote:
I've posted enough stuff here with vs#1-4 that it should be obvious I'm not stuck on vs#2, but you certainly seem stuck removing outliers even when they aren't outliers.

Here are the point totals of the top guys for the 12 years with 80 game schedule and 21 teams.

Year#1#2#3#4#5#10#15#20#25
198013713712510610594928979
1981164135131119112103968783
1982212147139136129106979289
1983196124121118107104928884
1984205126121119118105959289
19852081351301261211021009589
1986215141138131123105978984
198718310810710710595878179
1988168149131121111106938986
198919916815515011598908885
1990142129127123123102969290
1991163131115113110101918782

87 is pretty much the lowest totals at every spot except Gretzky at #1. Yet you are removing several players as outliers.
Yes, but it shouldn’t be a mystery why. Gretzky and Lemieux for reasons already discussed, plus one beneficiary linemate.

Quote:
The top 4 in 89 are really high, but the rest of the leader board is below average. Staying with #2 will "punish" the league with very low scores for a below average season, but removing outliers will give them "bonus points" where they will rate as a well above average season.
The “undesired” effect of the latter is infinitesimal compared to the former.

I mean, I can see what you’re saying about using the #1 (Bossy, par example) if there are multiple outliers above him removed, but it seems like such a petty issue in comparison to the issue of whether to remove the outliers in the first place.

Quote:
I don't see any reason to think either way is the "best" way to go. Maybe using the average of #3-5, 140 pts, would work as a substitute.
Even 140 would be crazy for that year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The 70s Bruins might be another problem - I still haven't figured out how to deal with them.
Just remove them like you would Gretzky, Kurri and Coffey. You end up with numbers that make sense for the whole league… except for the beneficiaries you remove (Cashman, *****)

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I've read all the section on Marty Pavelich in the Gods of Olympia, which was very interesting. The quotes you gave are nice, but I'm unsure if it ranks him closer to Claude Provost, than the rest of the undrafted defensive wingers. The same quote you gave can be found for all those unselected players.

Don't get me wrong, I love Martin Pavelich and if Frank Patrick was taken, very good chance he would of been my selection. However, I might have overrated him, thinking of him as the LW version of Claude Provost, while he's probably closer to the defensive winger that are selected right now.
I don’t think anyone actually puts Pavelich on the level of Provost defensively, and certainly not offensively.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
selects

Tod Sloan C

SEASONS 13
RS:745 220 262 482 831
PO:47 9 12 21 47

OHA-Jr. MVP (1946)
NHL Second All-Star Team (1956) Played in NHL All-Star Game (1951, 1952, 1956)
Stanley Cups 2


Coach: Scotty Bowman

Bobby Hull-Max Bentley-Cam Neely
xxxxxxxxxx-Darryl Sittler-xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx-Tod Sloan-xxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx-Doug Jarvis-xxxxxxxxxxx

Carl Brewer-Nikolai Sologubov

Turk Broda
Interesting strategy.


Last edited by seventieslord: 02-14-2012 at 02:56 PM.
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Old
02-14-2012, 10:52 AM
  #917
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Just my opinion:

-Jarvis is much more suited to the third line and Sloan to the 4th.
-You might want to consider using Sloan on RW (which I think he's elgibile for, but look into it more). Drafting 4th line C before a single second or third line wing or #3 defenseman seems..flawed.
not as flawed as Sologubov on a 1st pairing.

but I agree with your points.

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02-14-2012, 11:01 AM
  #918
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Just my opinion:

-Jarvis is much more suited to the third line and Sloan to the 4th.
-You might want to consider using Sloan on RW (which I think he's elgibile for, but look into it more). Drafting 4th line C before a single second or third line wing or #3 defenseman seems..flawed.
Interesting considering jarvis was never above the 3rd line and ssloan was a 1st liner for half of his career

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02-14-2012, 11:07 AM
  #919
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Originally Posted by Leaf Lander View Post
Interesting considering jarvis was never above the 3rd line and ssloan was a 1st liner for half of his career
he's speaking in terms of their skill sets. 3rd lines are usually more defensive. that's Jarvis' strength. 4th lines are often tough/energy type lines and Sloan is a very exuberant player who would fit there.

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02-14-2012, 11:08 AM
  #920
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Hey 70 u don't have ateam in this draft and I do not have a computer to properly defend my team from your pirate like attacks

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02-14-2012, 11:30 AM
  #921
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You are, in fact, the one who said it. I didn't feel like name dropping because I think "sturm said" is a really lame way to support an argument.
It is the only way to properly support an argument.

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02-14-2012, 11:34 AM
  #922
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Just curious on peoples thoughts on Pulford at 309?

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02-14-2012, 11:41 AM
  #923
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The Winnipeg Saints select RW Peter Bondra


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Old
02-14-2012, 11:52 AM
  #924
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Just curious on peoples thoughts on Pulford at 309?
well, you got him lower than he's ever been selected, so assuming this group of GMs has a good handle on his value as a player, you did well.

If you were after the best defensive LW you probably met your goal.

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02-14-2012, 12:00 PM
  #925
Leafs Forever
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Hey 70 u don't have ateam in this draft and I do not have a computer to properly defend my team from your pirate like attacks
He was just pointing out, and I agree with him, a possible better build/position idea.

Don't post your lineup in the draft thread/lineup advice thread if you don't want it critiqued/talked about somewhat.

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