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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread V

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Old
02-15-2012, 08:34 AM
  #26
Sturminator
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Thanks, jarek. I had an hour or so this morning waiting on a client, so I put his name into Google Archives. Balderis is one of the few really great players who we still don't know much about, and when I saw that almost everything about him was pay-per-view, I thought I'd do my part.

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02-15-2012, 08:39 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Alright to play with Keith Tkachuk on my 2nd/3rd line, I'm taking another physical, tough, American C. This line will be a ***** to play against because of its physicality and scoring ability. Tkachuk actually had his best goal scoring season with this guy, and also had some pretty kind words to say about him in this article: blackhawks.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=610987


With pick 325, I'm selecting Jeremy Roenick, C

Fun fact of the day: In 1991-92 Roenick received 4 first place votes for All-Star center, which is more than the career totals for Hawerchuk, Oates, Savard and Stastny combined. Lemieux, Gretzky, Messier, Roenick, Yzerman and Oates were all in the top 10 scorers that year.

Complete voting record:
1989-90: CALDER: 3rd 71 (7-9-9)
1990-91: SELKE: T21st 1 (0-0-1); ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 20 (0-4-8)
1991-92: HART: 6th 29 (0-5-14); SELKE: T9th 15 (3-0-0); ALL-STAR CENTER: 4th 70 (4-14-8)
1993-94: HART: T10th 3 (0-1-0); ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 9 (0-2-3)
1999-00: ALL-STAR CENTER: 4th 32 (3-2-11)
2001-02: ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 19 (2-2-3)
2002-03: SELKE: T31st 3 (0-0-0-1-0)

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02-15-2012, 08:58 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by papershoes View Post
the kenora thistles are pleased to select...

ed litzenberger (c/rw)

i'll post more later
Has dropped 100+ spots since ATD2010, I think this is a better place for him.

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02-15-2012, 09:07 AM
  #29
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The fact that Balderis is nicknamed "The Electric Train" makes me certain I am going to over draft him by about 300 spots because I need that on my team. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if my team name was the "Riga Electric Trains" next year.

---------------------

Thanks for all the good stuff on Roenick BM67, he has quite a few more All-Star votes later in his career than I was expecting. I knew he would have some early on, but its the later stuff displaying a high level of longevity that impresses me more than anything (ie, getting first place All-Star votes ten years after he received them initially).

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02-15-2012, 09:15 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
Fun fact of the day: In 1991-92 Roenick received 4 first place votes for All-Star center, which is more than the career totals for Hawerchuk, Oates, Savard and Stastny combined. Lemieux, Gretzky, Messier, Roenick, Yzerman and Oates were all in the top 10 scorers that year.

Complete voting record:
1989-90: CALDER: 3rd 71 (7-9-9)
1990-91: SELKE: T21st 1 (0-0-1); ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 20 (0-4-8)
1991-92: HART: 6th 29 (0-5-14); SELKE: T9th 15 (3-0-0); ALL-STAR CENTER: 4th 70 (4-14-8)
1993-94: HART: T10th 3 (0-1-0); ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 9 (0-2-3)
1999-00: ALL-STAR CENTER: 4th 32 (3-2-11)
2001-02: ALL-STAR CENTER: 5th 19 (2-2-3)
2002-03: SELKE: T31st 3 (0-0-0-1-0)
In his best few seasons Roenick was a hell of a player.

I think his style of play made it so that he couldn't maintain that top level but boy he was fun to watch in those seasons from like 90-94.

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02-15-2012, 09:36 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Thanks, jarek. I had an hour or so this morning waiting on a client, so I put his name into Google Archives. Balderis is one of the few really great players who we still don't know much about, and when I saw that almost everything about him was pay-per-view, I thought I'd do my part.
I've always been curious about him. He seems like a guy who could go in the top-200 with his skillset and his pretty good scoring resume in the russian leagues. The fact that you have shown evidence that he is able to play a passing game as well bodes very well for his value.

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02-15-2012, 09:45 AM
  #32
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I'll take tough Red Dutton, D.

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Old
02-15-2012, 10:21 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
In his best few seasons Roenick was a hell of a player.

I think his style of play made it so that he couldn't maintain that top level but boy he was fun to watch in those seasons from like 90-94.
He certainly peaked in scoring early, but the dead puck era makes his dropoff in scoring look worse than it was. He does compare well to Nieuwendyk over the rest of his career.

PlayerSeasonsGPGAPts+/-PO GPPO GPO APO PtsPO +/-
Roenick2013635137031216153154536912221
Nieuwendyk20125756456211261551586650116-5
Roenick95+1493828843372150902436605
Nieuwendyk95+127262712895603197382563-1

He had more points in 7 of the 9 seasons between the lockouts.

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02-15-2012, 10:25 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by jarek View Post
I've always been curious about him. He seems like a guy who could go in the top-200 with his skillset and his pretty good scoring resume in the russian leagues. The fact that you have shown evidence that he is able to play a passing game as well bodes very well for his value.
Balderis definitely seems to have a more complete skill set than I though. The "problem" is that he was only a star for about 3 years it seems. He's a guy who is always good value where he's taken though.

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I'll take tough Red Dutton, D.
I hope you find more on him - this could be a very good pick.

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Old
02-15-2012, 10:28 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
He certainly peaked in scoring early, but the dead puck era makes his dropoff in scoring look worse than it was. He does compare well to Nieuwendyk over the rest of his career.

PlayerSeasonsGPGAPts+/-PO GPPO GPO APO PtsPO +/-
Roenick2013635137031216153154536912221
Nieuwendyk20125756456211261551586650116-5
Roenick95+1493828843372150902436605
Nieuwendyk95+127262712895603197382563-1

He had more points in 7 of the 9 seasons between the lockouts.
Oh I'm not trying to say he wasn't still a good offensive player, but he definitely lost a notch there. Nieuwendyk himself did as well because of his knee problems.

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Old
02-15-2012, 10:41 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Balderis definitely seems to have a more complete skill set than I though. The "problem" is that he was only a star for about 3 years it seems. He's a guy who is always good value where he's taken though.
More like six years. His notable scoring finishes in the Soviet league:

1975: 3rd (94% of #2 scorer, Mikhailov)
1976: 4th (88% of #2 scorer, Yakushev)
1977: 1st (102% of #2 scorer, Petrov)
1980: 2nd*
1983: 1st (111% of #2 scorer, xxxx)
1985: 3rd (96% of #2 scorer, Krutov)

*played for CSKA*

That's pretty damned good, actually, especially considering that 5 out of those 6 years were at Riga.

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02-15-2012, 11:11 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I will help you out a bit, since Balderis is a player who interests me very much (I have a thing for Golden Age European players). Based on what I have found, I think Triffy's analysis in that post was most likely right on. Balderis seems to have been a player who would hold the puck and try to carry a line when on weak Riga teams or when his line was built to feed him, but he also seems to have been capable of sharing the puck when placed on strong lines, and was at any rate not a selfish player. Unfortunately, most google archves info on Balderis is locked up under pay-per-view pages, but as I have a NYT subscription, I can help out a bit. The below is all the relevant text from all the NYT articles I could find on Balderis (that really contained anything meaningful). I haven't left anything out that I know of.

Here is a snippet from a New York Times article I found on the 1979 Soviet National team when they played the Islanders in NY.

NYT - Dec 30, 1979:

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...DA415B898BF1D3



This is mostly praise of the team and the Soviet passing system, but Balderis seems to have fit into that system (on a line with Makarov? This supports Triffy's assumption that they, in fact, played together at CSKA) well.

Another snippet from the Times:

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...DD405B888BF1D3

NYT - May 13, 1978:



Sounds like Balderis liked to use his linemates on the rush. Doesn't sound like a Bure/Kovalchuk type to me.

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...8AD85F438785F9

NYT - January 11, 1977:



Here's a really good one about Balderis and the Soviet team:

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...DA405B898BF1D3

NYT - Feb 5, 1979:



Interesting stuff. Maybe an even more interesting article about Balderis:

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...DA405B898BF1D3

NYT - Feb 6, 1979:



The stylistic comparison to Lafleur seems pretty apt, I think. Here is a bit from after the end of the 1979 Summit series:

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive...DA405B898BF1D3

NYT - Feb 12, 1979:



It's not a comprehensive look at this player, but from the text, we get a picture of Balderis as more Lafleur than Bure in style, and he seems to have been a huge star for a little while there. The Electric Train is a pretty cool nickname, as well.
thanks a lot man!

Seems like the more you dig the more Balderis looks good! Very happy with the pick at this point.

I can always use some help especially with those russians guys , still have a lot to learn about them.

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Old
02-15-2012, 11:37 AM
  #38
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Selectst Brian Rafalski D. Please pm the next gm I am on my blackberry

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Old
02-15-2012, 11:55 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
Removing the lowest #2 point total between 72-73 and 97-98, excluding the 95 lockout season, as an outlier is crazy.
Not really, when the point is to attempt to assign players a “score” based on how impressive their totals are in a historical context. 1987 is definitely a weird year when you look at how every non-Gretzky fared. The issue is not just in the top-5 scorers.

The number of 90, 80, and 70-point scorers went from an average of 21-33-56 in 1985 and 1986, to 13-23-52 in 1987, to an average of 17-34-57 in 1988 and 1989.

Point is, I have no problem with how the 1987 scores turn out.

Quote:
Changing below average seasons into way above average scores is hardly infinitesimal.
Aren’t we talking about the effect of removing Bossy in 1986? If I did, the comparable would be one point higher, meaning minimal differences in the scores.

If you’re referring to 1989, I disagree that the rest of the leaderboard is below average. It looks like any other season in that range to me. The effect of bumping up those players’ scores is desired, the huge undesired effect I was referring to would be the embarrassingly low scores they would have if based on Wayne’s 169 (or even that 140 average)

Quote:
You have no problem using 139 in 1982. Why is 140 crazy? Show some examples illustrating how wrong it is.
On the surface, it looks like you are probably right that using 139 in 1982 is not a good idea. At the time I didn’t see it as a “crazy” enough result to break the pattern and “arbitrarily” remove it (see 1989 Yzerman, 1996 Jagr, 2006 Jagr) and one would think that this season to fall more “in line” with other seasons, a lower comparable would likely have to be used. But it actually falls in line with the other seasons pretty nicely:

year 90+ 80+ 70+ 60+
1978 3 3 12 21
1979 4 6 10 23
1980 3 8 20 36
1981 4 8 18 30
1982 5 8 15 38
1983 4 12 24 56
1984 9 15 35 59
1985 6 12 26 39
1986 8 16 22 53
1987 10 19 43 71
1988 7 12 25 54
1989 9 22 42 69
1990 4 13 26 44
1991 9 14 26 49
1992 12 23 45 67
1993 6 11 22 44
1994 8 21 41 71

I know it can never be perfectly linear, and I wouldn’t want to try to “force” it to be, either, but I am satisfied with how this looks. It reflects that over this time, the number of players in the NHL capable of scoring at a level of x% of the #2 non-outlier has steadily increased. You can definitely pick out a couple odd spots, some are explainable (1980 was a spike, due to the absorption of the WHA), some aren’t (1987 is slightly but not obscenely out of line)

If I used 140 as the comparable in 1989, the numbers would look like this: 4, 6, 10, 29. Far too out of line with the seasons around it and, IMO, not reflective of how that season went.

A start would be taking the average of the #2-5 scorers that came across their scores “honestly” (Gretzky 168, Yzerman 155, Mullen 110, Kurri 102 = 134) Then we’d end up with 4, 7, 13, 34 – which I would still very much disagree with, but is more “right” than the above. Personally, I like that year the way I have it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Thats right. Take away the two disaster years in Vancouver (where the team and organization around him was a joke) he had a very impressive career.

EDIT: wait...what? Are you saying Mogilny isn't good enough to go 1st overall in the MLD?
No, I am saying he would destroy the MLD.

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I heart you guys


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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
We wanted Bob Pulford, but we'll have to settle for the next best thing.

Tony Leswick, LW/RW
Ooo, good pick.

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Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
The Whalers shore up their top 4 with Pat Egan, D

One pick after Reise? Ugh.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Has dropped 100+ spots since ATD2010, I think this is a better place for him.
He could probably drop a little more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BM67 View Post
He certainly peaked in scoring early, but the dead puck era makes his dropoff in scoring look worse than it was. He does compare well to Nieuwendyk over the rest of his career.

PlayerSeasonsGPGAPts+/-PO GPPO GPO APO PtsPO +/-
Roenick2013635137031216153154536912221
Nieuwendyk20125756456211261551586650116-5
Roenick95+1493828843372150902436605
Nieuwendyk95+127262712895603197382563-1

He had more points in 7 of the 9 seasons between the lockouts.
But Nieuwendyk is a hero!!!!!!!!!


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 02-15-2012 at 12:42 PM. Reason: fixed your table
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Old
02-15-2012, 12:15 PM
  #40
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7 straight drafts now, Bondra has gone before Keith Tkachuk..... why?

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02-15-2012, 12:16 PM
  #41
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So seventies what did u think of sloan being a top 10 scorer for the 1950s decade

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02-15-2012, 12:19 PM
  #42
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So seventies what did u think of sloan being a top 10 scorer for the 1950s decade
I think he should be the RW on your second line.

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02-15-2012, 12:33 PM
  #43
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7 straight drafts now, Bondra has gone before Keith Tkachuk..... why?
Bondra is faster, a better sniper and marginally better in the playoffs. Tkatchuks international resume is to me very dissapointing.

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02-15-2012, 12:36 PM
  #44
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7 straight drafts now, Bondra has gone before Keith Tkachuk..... why?
I'm a Hawks fan, but ...
Quote:
Perhaps the reason I did not like him as much as I probably should was his penchant for taking bad penalties. He was mean and volatile, which is often great with such hockey beasts. But he had a reputation for keeping his stick high and for throwing retaliatory punches once the safety of the scrum had arrived. That, and he had little post-season success and was seemingly always in a contract squabble.

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02-15-2012, 12:43 PM
  #45
TheDevilMadeMe
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Bondra is faster, a better sniper and marginally better in the playoffs. Tkatchuks international resume is to me very dissapointing.
Tkatchuk was a better overall point producer than Bondra though, and that's before you bring in what else he brings to the table.

Tkatchuk's international resume is actually better than is playoff resume - he was very good in the 1996 World Cup.

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02-15-2012, 12:51 PM
  #46
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Tkatchuk was a better overall point producer than Bondra though, and that's before you bring in what else he brings to the table.

Tkatchuk's international resume is actually better than is playoff resume - he was very good in the 1996 World Cup.
Tkachuks .89 PPG is better than Bondras .83 but I dont it offsets the other areas that favours Bondra.

No it isnt. Tkachuk was very good in '96 but never reached that level again.

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02-15-2012, 12:54 PM
  #47
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Tkachuks .89 PPG is better than Bondras .83 but I dont it offsets the other areas that favours Bondra.
What other areas favor Bondra?

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02-15-2012, 12:56 PM
  #48
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What other areas favor Bondra?
Speed, goalscoring, playoffs, international.

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02-15-2012, 01:02 PM
  #49
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Tkatchuk was a better overall point producer than Bondra though, and that's before you bring in what else he brings to the table.

Tkatchuk's international resume is actually better than is playoff resume - he was very good in the 1996 World Cup.
To be fair, he has been good in the WCHs with a PPG, but pretty much terrible in the Olympics. 23 games, I think he has something like 6 points. Overall it kinda averages out, but I still don't think he's a strong international performer.

However I do think he's not a disaster in the NHL playoffs either. If you take out the last playoffs he was in at the end of his career (as a 37 year old), and the first playoffs he was in with the Jets in his rookie year (he played 17 regular season games that year), he has 78 games with 53 points, good enough for a .68 PPG average. Not as high as his .88 PPG average, but not a disaster by any stretch either.

Pretty much I'm trying to put Tkachuk is a really good position to succeed, with a physical line where he doesn't have to take all of the beating, and with the center with whom he had his best goal scoring year. When the playoffs come along, I just want some support scoring from him, which I think he is capable of. I'm not asking him to be the star of this team, which is what he was with the Blues. I think I have put him in the position to succeed here up to his capablities in the playoffs.

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02-15-2012, 01:03 PM
  #50
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Speed, goalscoring, playoffs, international.
Speed, sure. But what did his speed let him to? Score points. And Tkachuk was the better point producer by a little bit. Goalscoring? It's just a part of creating offense and Tkachuk was actually the better point producer.

Bondra was pretty bad in the playoffs, but I guess he was less bad than Tkachuk.

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