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Jack Johnson Might Be Available

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Old
02-17-2012, 05:43 PM
  #151
LombardiTool
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post
You clearly know more about Jack Johnson than I do. After all, you somehow know that he is 23 despite every bio of him listing him as being TWENTY FIVE YEARS OLD. Even the LA Kings have his age wrong: http://kings.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8471677

Also, +/- is incredibly useful when comparing players on the same team. In the case of Jack Johnson, he has been dead last in +/- among defensemen on the Kings each and every year of his career. One bad year might be a coincidence. 5 bad years is a disturbing and obvious trend that shows he sucks defensively.

But OK, maybe you don't like +/-. Maybe you think advanced statistics are better. Choose any advanced metric that rates a defensive player and you will find Jack Johnson in the bottom 10% league wide. Take Corsi for example, you will find Jack Johnson has the worst corsi on the Kings for every year of his NHL career.

But sure, he is having a better year than Kimmo Timonen. He has less points(24 to Kimmo's 31), is on the bottom of his team in +/- (Timonen is on the top), he has the worst corsi on his team (Timonen has the best on his team), and he has a much lower even strength points per 60 ( 0.61 to 1.19 for Timonen).

Every metric (advanced or standard) would seem to indicate that Timonen is blowing Jack Johnson out of the water. But thank god we have your eyes to tell us differently. Otherwise, we might make a mistake and think that Kimmo Timonen is better than Jack Johnson.

Well, I'm convinced now after hearing your testimony that Jack Johnson is probably one of the best defensemen in the NHL.

We should probably trade Schenn + JVR + 1st for him. He is the missing piece to the puzzle.
Jack Johnson is 25... since most defenseman dont hit their NHL prime until they are 27 or 28, the 2 year mistake isn't a huge issue (since he just turned 25 last month, it is even a smaller mistake). Fact is, he is not 35 like Timonen. Jack's best years are still ahead of him.

Here are some facts...

- Jack Johnson is a puck moving defenseman that does have some defensive issues. He has greatly improved over the past few years and during the time's Doughty has been out, he has stepped his game up defensively and was our top defenseman.

Jack has already tied his career high in goals and he still has a third of the season left. He is not getting as many assists but when you have a team full of players that cant finish, that is expected.

He is tied for 2nd in the entire NHL for game winning goals by a defenseman... half of those are in OT. He may have low corsi numbers and no one gets more frustrated at Jack "Shots Wide Right" Johnson than me, but his shooting % is at the highest it has ever been in his career.

He is on pace for a -13 this season, not very good but it is his best +/- in his career and much better than his -21 last season. He is also on pace to have his lowest PIM in a season.

What does these facts say... Jack Johnson is not a perfect defenseman. He is a young puck moving defenseman with a tough steak that can put up some points. Every season, he has progressed and become a more complete defenseman. He is just hitting his stride and could be a top #2 defenseman.

One thing he is not, he is not the piece of garbage you are making him out to be.


Last edited by LombardiTool: 02-17-2012 at 06:02 PM. Reason: Edit to clean up some snobby remarks.
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02-17-2012, 05:51 PM
  #152
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Nooooo! I like Jack!

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02-17-2012, 05:53 PM
  #153
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Obviously he isn't garbage but this thread is about trading JJ for a first line winger.

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02-17-2012, 05:56 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by desmond View Post
Obviously he isn't garbage but this thread is about trading JJ for a first line winger.
So what you guys are saying Jack Johnsin couldnt be a major piece to aquiring a top tier forward? Of course JMFJ straight up for Nash is crazy but I could totally see him as a major piece to a three piece deal for him. I could live with Nash for Johnson/Bernier and a 1st.

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02-17-2012, 06:28 PM
  #155
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I like Jack a lot to...BUT, the Kings won't trade Doughty, they love Greene and have no one like him in the AHL, Scuderi has 1 more year before he is UFA, Mitchell is soon to be a UFA, Martinez is still figuring it out and has mid level value so Johnson and Voynov are there biggest assets.

Voynov makes less, is younger and has 11 points and a +4 in 33 games.

Johnson has 24 points in 58 games but is a -10.

We also have Thomas Hickey, Jake Muzzin and Nic Deslauries in the minors....all similar to JJ, Doughty, Martinez, etc....

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02-17-2012, 06:28 PM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LombardiTool View Post
Jack Johnson is 25... since most defenseman dont hit their NHL prime until they are 27 or 28, the 2 year mistake isn't a huge issue (since he just turned 25 last month, it is even a smaller mistake). Fact is, he is not 35 like Timonen. Jack's best years are still ahead of him.

Here are some facts...

- Jack Johnson is a puck moving defenseman that does have some defensive issues. He has greatly improved over the past few years and during the time's Doughty has been out, he has stepped his game up defensively and was our top defenseman.

Jack has already tied his career high in goals and he still has a third of the season left. He is not getting as many assists but when you have a team full of players that cant finish, that is expected.

He is tied for 2nd in the entire NHL for game winning goals by a defenseman... half of those are in OT. He may have low corsi numbers and no one gets more frustrated at Jack "Shots Wide Right" Johnson than me, but his shooting % is at the highest it has ever been in his career.

He is on pace for a -13 this season, not very good but it is his best +/- in his career and much better than his -21 last season. He is also on pace to have his lowest PIM in a season.

What does these facts say... Jack Johnson is not a perfect defenseman. He is a young puck moving defenseman with a tough steak that can put up some points. Every season, he has progressed and become a more complete defenseman. He is just hitting his stride and could be a top #2 defenseman.

One thing he is not, he is not the piece of garbage you are making him out to be.
I apologize if you think I'm a Kings hater or something... I'm not. I think your team is loaded with great players. Richards, Kopitar, Doughty, Brown (perfect flyers type player), Quick, Bernier (both your goalies are better than anything we have in Philly), and Voynov. I'd love to have any one of those players.

But I must say, I am mystified by the fact that JJ apparently holds some incredible amount of value in your mind. He is not good defensively. He is actually pretty horrendous. You can tell me he made strides or he played well when Doughty was out, but that's irrelevant. He has still been the worst defensive player on the Kings by a mile and one of the worst defensive players in the entire NHL. His best just might not ever be good enough to even be "average" defensively. If you can't ever be even average defensively, you are never going to hold down a top pairing spot.

Some other facts about Jack Johnson and about defensemen in general:

-He sucks in 5 on 5 play. Say what you will, but for his entire career the vast majority of his points come on the powerplay. His points per sixty of even strength time are staggeringly low for someone being billed as a premier puck moving defenseman. His goals per 60 of even strength time also stink.

- He is a terrible PKer. This is why his minutes on the PK have been steadily coming down and is also why teams average several more goals per 60 when Johnson is on the PK versus any other defenseman on your team.

- You can tell me that the average defenseman enters his peak in his late 20s. I'm perfectly aware of this. But you'd be hard pressed to find me a defenseman who has ever sucked this much defensively at the age of 25 (after 5 years in the NHL) and then becomes a top pairing defenseman. It just does not happen.

I'm not making him out to be a piece of garbage, I'm trying to make him out to be what he is. The most likely future for Jack Johnson is as a #4 puck moving defenseman / powerplay specialist. He will likely always be below average defensively (and this is being nice, he has a ways to go before he is just "below average"). And the value for such a player is not nearly as high as what some fans on here think.

A 2nd pairing powerplay specialist and a late 1st round pick does not get you Rick Nash.

A 2nd pairing powerplay specialist does not get you JVR (plus it doesn't work out need-wise as the Flyers have too many offensive defensemen already and a better version of Jack Johnson in Matt Carle).

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Old
02-17-2012, 06:41 PM
  #157
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Wish the Nucks had first line wingers or potential first line wingers to spare.

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02-17-2012, 06:53 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by Figz14 View Post
Wish the Nucks had first line wingers or potential first line wingers to spare.
Raymond!

I hate to say it but.. My best offer would be:

Raymond, Ballard, Schroeder, and a first.

For-

Jack Johnson.

I'm afraid that's not enough though.

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02-17-2012, 06:53 PM
  #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post

Some other facts about Jack Johnson and about defensemen in general:

-He sucks in 5 on 5 play. Say what you will, but for his entire career the vast majority of his points come on the powerplay. His points per sixty of even strength time are staggeringly low for someone being billed as a premier puck moving defenseman. His goals per 60 of even strength time also stink.

- He is a terrible PKer. This is why his minutes on the PK have been steadily coming down and is also why teams average several more goals per 60 when Johnson is on the PK versus any other defenseman on your team.
).
If you think Jack's lack of 5V5 scoring is due to his offensive ability then I think you're wrong. Jack is the perfect offensive dman. Great skating, slick passing, doesn't get nervous, hard shot. That has never been a question about him.

If anything his lack of 5v5 scoring explains why he has more negatives than positives.

Actually he's a solid PKer. The reason being is because he is a solid defender on the move. His defensive issues completely boil down to when he's camped in front of the net and has to diagnose. Outside of his strong ability to clear the crease he's disastrous there. He doesn't get PK time because the Kings have 3 high end defensive dmen and Doughty, who has the hockey IQ of 190.

EDIT: Also, when Jack gets the top responsibility minutes when DD goes down he is well into the plus category and scores a lot of 5V5. Unfortunately for Jack, Drew goes out with the only line that the Kings ever have that scores to maximize offense (Jack has been on piss poor scoring teams with one line his whole career) while Jack gets grinding line forwards. I'm not saying Jack is perfect but in reality Jack has not been put in a situation where his talents will succeed. It's night and day when he gets the top billing situations which is why everyone has brought up his USA perfromance and his time taking over for Drew.


Last edited by no name: 02-17-2012 at 07:04 PM.
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Old
02-17-2012, 07:05 PM
  #160
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Dammit I bought a Jack Johnson jersey to my nephew this Christmas. Don't be a jerk, Lombardi!

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02-17-2012, 07:18 PM
  #161
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JJ is on a decent cap hit at term. he is a sure #2 and can manage a PP. Heaven forbid he was in a wide open system like Philly where he could actually utilize his run and gun skills.

Jack has improved this year no matter what people who don't watch him play game in and out say. The hate for this kid is unreal and undeserved.

Most Kings fans dont want to trade him but he is the largest expendable trading chip LA has.

Who else is available on D like JJ? IF he is being shopped, it will most certainly be for a top scoring forward even if LA has to add. That will be the asking price, otherwise why move him?

Not even sure if Philly wouldn't have to add to JVR in a deal for JJ.

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02-17-2012, 08:21 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by no name View Post
If you think Jack's lack of 5V5 scoring is due to his offensive ability then I think you're wrong. Jack is the perfect offensive dman. Great skating, slick passing, doesn't get nervous, hard shot. That has never been a question about him.

If anything his lack of 5v5 scoring explains why he has more negatives than positives.

Actually he's a solid PKer. The reason being is because he is a solid defender on the move. His defensive issues completely boil down to when he's camped in front of the net and has to diagnose. Outside of his strong ability to clear the crease he's disastrous there. He doesn't get PK time because the Kings have 3 high end defensive dmen and Doughty, who has the hockey IQ of 190.

EDIT: Also, when Jack gets the top responsibility minutes when DD goes down he is well into the plus category and scores a lot of 5V5. Unfortunately for Jack, Drew goes out with the only line that the Kings ever have that scores to maximize offense (Jack has been on piss poor scoring teams with one line his whole career) while Jack gets grinding line forwards. I'm not saying Jack is perfect but in reality Jack has not been put in a situation where his talents will succeed. It's night and day when he gets the top billing situations which is why everyone has brought up his USA perfromance and his time taking over for Drew.
I think Jack's lack of 5 v 5 scoring is absolutely indicative of his abilities as an offensive defenseman. Even when paired with Doughty, his points per sixty have not been anywhere near what a premier offensive defenseman should have. Even in years where LA has been in the top half of the league in scoring, Jack Johnson's P/60 numbers have been low.

And I'm not just talking about being "low" in general compared to the league, I'm talking about being "low" compared to his teammates. Compared to his so-called "defensive" defenseman teammates that aren't supposed to score well.

The last 5 seasons, Jack ranks the following in even strength points per sixty compared to the 5 other defenseman on the kings who get the most TOI:

07-08: Last
08-09: 5th (of 6)
09-10: 3rd (of 6)
10-11: Last
11:12: 4th (of 6)

There is a problem when your premier offensive defenseman (who we've already established is horrendous defensively) cannot score more even strength points per 60 mins on ice than someone like Matt Greene. Or in the case of last year (where you claim he took giant strides forward) when he was being outscored by Mitchell, Scuderi, Green, and Martinez.

Jack Johnson is an excellent power-play point producer. Beyond that, he offers very little at this point. He is below average at even strength offensively (the stats for his entire 5 year career clearly show this) and his defense is horribly below average whether it is 5 on 5, shorthanded, or pretty much any situation you can throw out there.

Jack Johnson is incredibly overrated on these boards. I would be appalled if my team even considered taking JJ + 1st for Nash or JJ straight up for JVR (let alone asking the flyers to add to JVR).

If Jack Johnson is indeed worth what you think he is, then I would like the Flyers to re-sign Carle ASAP and trade him because using all logic, Carle would be worth more than JJ. He is better defensively and he is better at even strength. The only area JJ has him is on the powerplay.

I'm not trying to hate on JJ or the Kings, I'm just trying to be realistic here. Right now, Jack Johnson is a below average 2nd pairing defenseman who is an excellent powerplay specialist. His legitimate upside is as an average to good second pairing defenseman who is an even better powerplay specialist. He does not have first pairing upside as a 25 year old with defense this poor. He reminds me a lot of a James Wisniewski or a Matt Carle with a better shot. To me, that isn't worth what Kings fans are asking for. But maybe someone out there is dumb enough to pay it. I don't know.

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02-17-2012, 08:22 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by Knight of the Realm View Post
JJ is on a decent cap hit at term. he is a sure #2 and can manage a PP. Heaven forbid he was in a wide open system like Philly where he could actually utilize his run and gun skills.

Jack has improved this year no matter what people who don't watch him play game in and out say. The hate for this kid is unreal and undeserved.

Most Kings fans dont want to trade him but he is the largest expendable trading chip LA has.

Who else is available on D like JJ? IF he is being shopped, it will most certainly be for a top scoring forward even if LA has to add. That will be the asking price, otherwise why move him?

Not even sure if Philly wouldn't have to add to JVR in a deal for JJ.
JJ is not a sure #2. He is a below average #3/#4 defenseman at this point in his career.

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02-17-2012, 08:26 PM
  #164
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JJ is not a sure #2. He is a below average #3/#4 defenseman at this point in his career.
ok.... JVR is a bust and a third line winger.

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02-17-2012, 08:26 PM
  #165
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No way Lombardi trades Jack Johnson. The guy is starting to turn the corner, it would be a crime to deal with all those lean years, only to see the guy blossom,( into what everyone thought he would be) on another teams roster.

Johnson is an olympian, he has a great deal of passion and heart. It may sound stupid, but a guy that pays his own way to attend opening ceremonies of the Olympics because he is proud to represent his country speaks a lot to his character. The guy wanted to play with the L.A. Kings.

I know there are the Billy Beane followers that throw out stats, and make it
the be all end all.

Stats are part of the equation, but these statistics are not being drawn from this sterile environment..

Johnson has grown as a player by leaps and bounds this year, his re-programming on how to play defense is near to completion. Occasionally bad habits still rear their head but not nearly as often.

If the Kings were not last in the league in scoring Johnson would be a plus player.
If the Kings had an even AHL caliber power play Johnson would be a plus scorer.
As it is the guy has 4 game winners which is 2nd on the team..

For the "stat" guys on the board lets all take the Moneyball quiz, below you have 2 teams that are currently playing in the NHL

Team A, has all but 1 of their defensemen as a plus player under the +/- system.

Team B has all but 2 of the defensemen as a minus player under the +/- system.

Which team is considered by virtually all NHL pundits to be the the stronger defensive team?

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02-17-2012, 08:37 PM
  #166
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ok.... JVR is a bust and a third line winger.
I'm glad you feel that way.

When JVR gets to age 25 and is still sputtering (like Jack Johnson), I'll agree with you. He has 2 more years and change though. And he has 2 injuries which require surgery at the end of the year and he's still on pace to post career highs in goals (24) and points (48). I'll take that when he's playing w/ a hip impingement and a sports hernia.

Kris Versteeg had a sports hernia last year as a Flyer and as a result, the Flyers gave up on him. He had 17 points in 38 games as a Flyer with his injury. This year, he is a point per game player. JVR has 22 points in 37 games dealing with a sports hernia and another injury. If he recovers anywhere near as well as Versteeg does, I will be pleased.

Oh, and by the way, JVR has never ranked anywhere close to being the worst forward on the team in any category the way that Jack Johnson has consistently been the worst defenseman statistically for the Kings.

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02-17-2012, 08:42 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post
I'm glad you feel that way.

When JVR gets to age 25 and is still sputtering (like Jack Johnson), I'll agree with you. He has 2 more years and change though. And he has 2 injuries which require surgery at the end of the year and he's still on pace to post career highs in goals (24) and points (48). I'll take that when he's playing w/ a hip impingement and a sports hernia.

Kris Versteeg had a sports hernia last year as a Flyer and as a result, the Flyers gave up on him. He had 17 points in 38 games as a Flyer with his injury. This year, he is a point per game player. JVR has 22 points in 37 games dealing with a sports hernia and another injury. If he recovers anywhere near as well as Versteeg does, I will be pleased.

Oh, and by the way, JVR has never ranked anywhere close to being the worst forward on the team in any category the way that Jack Johnson has consistently been the worst defenseman statistically for the Kings.
forwards take less time to develop then defenseman.
l
ol theres only 6 defensman

i guess JVR is better than the bottom 6 congrats....

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02-17-2012, 08:46 PM
  #168
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As an unbiased Minnesota Wild fan, I'd rather take JJ than JVR. And that is without any doubts whatsoever. I don't care about statistics that might say one over the other is better(not sure how you can compare a forward to a defenseman statistically, but whatever floats your boat), but I have seen both players in multiple games on TV and I am more impressed with JJ as a defenseman than JVR as a forward.

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02-17-2012, 08:51 PM
  #169
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Can we get a brief JJ scouting report from the Kings faithful?

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02-17-2012, 09:02 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by bobafettish View Post
forwards take less time to develop then defenseman.
l
ol theres only 6 defensman

i guess JVR is better than the bottom 6 congrats....
Power Forwards (JVR is a power forward) on average take just as long to develop as offensive defensemen.

It was a nice try, perhaps you'd like to try again?

I don't want to turn this into a "my prospect is better than your prospect kind of thing" anyway.

This isn't about JVR, this is about JJ's value and I just don't see how he is worth anything close to what Kings fans have suggested. He is a 25 year old offensive defenseman currently playing the 2nd pairing that is clearly well below average on defense.

Similar defensemen have been traded for much less in the past. Two of them (Carle, Meszaros) currently play for the Flyers.

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02-17-2012, 09:16 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post
Power Forwards (JVR is a power forward) on average take just as long to develop as offensive defensemen.

It was a nice try, perhaps you'd like to try again?

I don't want to turn this into a "my prospect is better than your prospect kind of thing" anyway.

This isn't about JVR, this is about JJ's value and I just don't see how he is worth anything close to what Kings fans have suggested. He is a 25 year old offensive defenseman currently playing the 2nd pairing that is clearly well below average on defense.

Similar defensemen have been traded for much less in the past. Two of them (Carle, Meszaros) currently play for the Flyers.
Kings have the third best goals against average inthe league and JJ has been a big part of the solution. JJ is the 2nd most used dmen on the team. Now if u think his crap, thats fine. But he is far from what u think from him.

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02-17-2012, 09:17 PM
  #172
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As an unbiased Minnesota Wild fan, I'd rather take JJ than JVR. And that is without any doubts whatsoever. I don't care about statistics that might say one over the other is better(not sure how you can compare a forward to a defenseman statistically, but whatever floats your boat), but I have seen both players in multiple games on TV and I am more impressed with JJ as a defenseman than JVR as a forward.
Saying that doesn't make you unbiased. It just shows that you are intelligent enough to gauge a players value by how he plays and not by looking at nhl.com.

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02-17-2012, 09:21 PM
  #173
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This isn't about JVR, this is about JJ's value
Weren't you the one who said JJ wasn't worth JVR? Someone did.

I have no idea why the Flyers signed him up for a $4.25 cap hit before he truly broke out, but we don't know for sure that he will live up to it. Injuries are now a concern on top of it. That's a risky contract in itself right there. It's fine if you're more worried about JJ's development curve, but it's not like JVR doesn't have his own potential drawbacks.

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02-17-2012, 09:28 PM
  #174
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Can we get a brief JJ scouting report from the Kings faithful?
JJ is a slick skater. Hard hitter when he wants to be and strong enough to win many board battles. He has a rocket of a shot that needs some more accuracy. He and DD could both get there shots off a little sooner. JJ makes solid passes out of the zone or can skate it out under pressure. He does make a bonehead play from time to time but even those have been cut down this year. He has pretty good one-on-one moves and can be used in shoot outs. He plays 1st line PP minutes and can play the PK. He logs alot of minutes.

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02-17-2012, 09:29 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by Asheru View Post
Weren't you the one who said JJ wasn't worth JVR? Someone did.

I have no idea why the Flyers signed him up for a $4.25 cap hit before he truly broke out, but we don't know for sure that he will live up to it. Injuries are now a concern on top of it. That's a risky contract in itself right there. It's fine if you're more worried about JJ's development curve, but it's not like JVR doesn't have his own potential drawbacks.
The more I hear about JVR the less interested I become as a Kings fan.

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