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Jack Johnson Might Be Available

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Old
02-17-2012, 10:36 PM
  #176
RetiredFlyer
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Originally Posted by kingsofLA View Post
Kings have the third best goals against average inthe league and JJ has been a big part of the solution. JJ is the 2nd most used dmen on the team. Now if u think his crap, thats fine. But he is far from what u think from him.
JJ actually hasn't been a big part of the solution. He's been on ice for 2.23 ES goals per 60, the worst on the team other than Alec Martinez. And he has been on ice for more goals against than goals for. And has the worst margin of this on the team (as shown by his +/-) but you can think what you want I guess.

The Flyers have the best offense in the NHL. But do you see me claiming that Braydon Coburn or Andreas Lilja or Zac Rinaldo or Jody Shelley are big parts of that?

Braydon Coburn plays big minutes for the Flyers but he is not in any way/shape/form good offensively. The Flyers offense is ranked 1st despite Coburn's lack of offensive ability, not because Coburn helps in that category. .

Much like the Kings are ranked so well defensively because of their scheme and because of the players that are actually talented defensively. They are succeeding despite Johnson's lack of defensive ability, not because he is a stud.

You can continue to spout off about how great he is, but I've seen him play several games; color me unimpressed. When the stats agree perfectly with what my eyes see, I tend to believe them. When you have 5 years worth of stats telling you a guy stinks defensively and stinks at even strength offensively, I tend to believe them.

I don't feel like running the numbers right now, but given the amount of time on ice we have for JJ over 5 years, the odds of the statistics just being a coincidence (ie. the statistics painting the wrong picture) is probably somewhere around 0.001% or worse.

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02-17-2012, 10:48 PM
  #177
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Originally Posted by Asheru View Post
Weren't you the one who said JJ wasn't worth JVR? Someone did.

I have no idea why the Flyers signed him up for a $4.25 cap hit before he truly broke out, but we don't know for sure that he will live up to it. Injuries are now a concern on top of it. That's a risky contract in itself right there. It's fine if you're more worried about JJ's development curve, but it's not like JVR doesn't have his own potential drawbacks.
Other fans had brought JVR up first and Kings fans had deemed JJ more valuable. I was merely responding to that. As I said, I don't think JJ is near as valuable as JVR but maybe I'm biased there. I certainly don't think that JJ + Bernier + a late 1st gets your Rick Nash. I think that's a joke of an offer. If it does then I hope the Flyers offer Coburn + Bob + 1st. I'd probably even be willing to offer more than that despite the fact that the Flyers don't need forwards.

I definitely don't want to turn this into a JVR vs. JJ thing though. It's been done before and both fan bases think their player is better. I wanted to talk more about how/why people think JJ is valuable enough to be a big piece for Rick Nash. I don't see how people can ever think he will be a top pairing defenseman when he is one of the worst defenseman defense-wise in the NHL at the age of 25. In the right situation I could see him being a 55 point powerplay specialist 2nd pairing defenseman, but I just don't see him ever being good defensively or being extremely good at even strength.



Anyway, I certainly agree with you that JVR has his drawbacks. You can certainly point to the injuries and be concerned, but this is the first time he has ever missed significant time to injury and there are no long-lasting effects for the injuries he suffered so I'm not worried there.

The biggest thing that sucks w/ JVR is that many (myself included) believe that he was poised to break out. As I said earlier, he was on an early pace for 35-35-70 playing through the hip impingement before he hit the injured reserve list with his abdominal tear (sports hernia). After the abdominal tear (which will require surgery to fix), he has had 3 goals, 6 points in 18 games. He is clearly not the same player and I wish he would just get the surgery but the Flyers have always been incredibly stupid with injuries. They keep them hush-hush till the end of the season and then announce all the major surgeries and major injuries that players need/have.

But yes, you can certainly look at JVR's contract as a huge risk, which is why I would hope he isn't traded at this point for peanuts.

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02-17-2012, 10:52 PM
  #178
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I hope LA stays away from JVR.

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02-17-2012, 10:53 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post
JJ actually hasn't been a big part of the solution. He's been on ice for 2.23 ES goals per 60, the worst on the team other than Alec Martinez. And he has been on ice for more goals against than goals for. And has the worst margin of this on the team (as shown by his +/-) but you can think what you want I guess.

The Flyers have the best offense in the NHL. But do you see me claiming that Braydon Coburn or Andreas Lilja or Zac Rinaldo or Jody Shelley are big parts of that?

Braydon Coburn plays big minutes for the Flyers but he is not in any way/shape/form good offensively. The Flyers offense is ranked 1st despite Coburn's lack of offensive ability, not because Coburn helps in that category. .

Much like the Kings are ranked so well defensively because of their scheme and because of the players that are actually talented defensively. They are succeeding despite Johnson's lack of defensive ability, not because he is a stud.

You can continue to spout off about how great he is, but I've seen him play several games; color me unimpressed. When the stats agree perfectly with what my eyes see, I tend to believe them. When you have 5 years worth of stats telling you a guy stinks defensively and stinks at even strength offensively, I tend to believe them.

I don't feel like running the numbers right now, but given the amount of time on ice we have for JJ over 5 years, the odds of the statistics just being a coincidence (ie. the statistics painting the wrong picture) is probably somewhere around 0.001% or worse.
Well, our gaa for the season is 2.03, not far from what u just posted. every kings fan knows JJ is not the same player he was 5 or two years ago. JJ ain't perfect super star dmen, but dude can hold his own as a great #2

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02-17-2012, 10:59 PM
  #180
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JJ is a #5 d-man right now who's a good PP QB.

He has potential to be a #4 d-man, PP quarterback.

That's it.

Top-pairing is out of the question. Simply won't ever be good enough defensively.

He gets so overrated by people who don't watch him play mainly because he was drafted 3rd overall.

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02-17-2012, 11:01 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
JJ is a #5 d-man right now who's a good PP QB.

He has potential to be a #4 d-man, PP quarterback.

That's it.

Top-pairing is out of the question. Simply won't ever be good enough defensively.

He gets so overrated by people who don't watch him play mainly because he was drafted 3rd overall.
JVR is a third liner now

He has potential to be a 2nd liner

1st liner is out of the question.

He gets so overrated by people who dont watch him play mainly because he was drafted 2nd overall.


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02-17-2012, 11:02 PM
  #182
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Originally Posted by ThisIsMyAlibi View Post
Can we get a brief JJ scouting report from the Kings faithful?
Johnson is a very talented, strong, athletic player. He plays with an edge and loves to blast the puck from the point. He also has that disposition where he always wants to win, and seems to be more of a leader.

He has two major problems: he struggles with reading the development of plays, and he gets overly aggressive. With one-on-one battles, Johnson is nearly unbeatable, as he's a fast skater and very strong. However, the dynamics of having multiple players is where he struggles most of all. He also will go for the big hit or pinch in offensively, but sometimes it will take him out of position.

Right now, he's a 3/4 defenseman who has potential to be a 1/2. He can still improve his defensive reads, which will come with more maturity and experience.

I definitely would not like to see Johnson moved, but begrudgingly accept you have to give to get, and would accept if he yielded a top line winger.

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02-17-2012, 11:05 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
JJ is a #5 d-man right now who's a good PP QB.

He has potential to be a #4 d-man, PP quarterback.

That's it.

Top-pairing is out of the question. Simply won't ever be good enough defensively.

He gets so overrated by people who don't watch him play mainly because he was drafted 3rd overall.
um, OK if you say so.

JJ is a -10 this year. The majority of kings are minus or in the single + digits. LA can't score to save its collective life and has been shut out 7 times this year. Hard to gain +'s when your team doesn't score.

Not saying JJ is Mitchell or Scuderi but he is not as terrible as hfboards makes him out to be.

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02-17-2012, 11:08 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by King'sPawn View Post
Johnson is a very talented, strong, athletic player. He plays with an edge and loves to blast the puck from the point. He also has that disposition where he always wants to win, and seems to be more of a leader.

He has two major problems: he struggles with reading the development of plays, and he gets overly aggressive. With one-on-one battles, Johnson is nearly unbeatable, as he's a fast skater and very strong. However, the dynamics of having multiple players is where he struggles most of all. He also will go for the big hit or pinch in offensively, but sometimes it will take him out of position.

Right now, he's a 3/4 defenseman who has potential to be a 1/2. He can still improve his defensive reads, which will come with more maturity and experience.

I definitely would not like to see Johnson moved, but begrudgingly accept you have to give to get, and would accept if he yielded a top line winger.
I don't agree Kingspawn. To me, especially on LA, JJ is a #2. Could be a #3 on many teams.

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02-17-2012, 11:45 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by Knight of the Realm View Post
I don't agree Kingspawn. To me, especially on LA, JJ is a #2. Could be a #3 on many teams.
Right now he's on the second pairing on the Kings. Doughty/Scuderi usually handle the top line opponents.

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02-18-2012, 12:11 AM
  #186
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Originally Posted by RetiredFlyer View Post
JJ actually hasn't been a big part of the solution. He's been on ice for 2.23 ES goals per 60, the worst on the team other than Alec Martinez. And he has been on ice for more goals against than goals for. And has the worst margin of this on the team (as shown by his +/-) but you can think what you want I guess.

The Flyers have the best offense in the NHL. But do you see me claiming that Braydon Coburn or Andreas Lilja or Zac Rinaldo or Jody Shelley are big parts of that?

Braydon Coburn plays big minutes for the Flyers but he is not in any way/shape/form good offensively. The Flyers offense is ranked 1st despite Coburn's lack of offensive ability, not because Coburn helps in that category. .

Much like the Kings are ranked so well defensively because of their scheme and because of the players that are actually talented defensively. They are succeeding despite Johnson's lack of defensive ability, not because he is a stud.

You can continue to spout off about how great he is, but I've seen him play several games; color me unimpressed. When the stats agree perfectly with what my eyes see, I tend to believe them. When you have 5 years worth of stats telling you a guy stinks defensively and stinks at even strength offensively, I tend to believe them.

I don't feel like running the numbers right now, but given the amount of time on ice we have for JJ over 5 years, the odds of the statistics just being a coincidence (ie. the statistics painting the wrong picture) is probably somewhere around 0.001% or worse.

Zdeno Chara his first 3 years his plus minus

-8
-27
-27

Brent Burns last 3 years with the Wild

-7
-15
-10


Zach Bogosian
-18
-27
-7 (this year)

Fedor Tyutin
-7
-12
-18


Using a stat only approach it would seem these guys would not have made the cut either.

Johnson was a defensemen in name only during college. Probably should have spent time in the AHL, but the Kings were so bad, he was placed in the fire..

Johnson is top 6, PP goals scored for Defensmen, he is in the top 2 Game winning goals scored by defensemen, tied for 10th goals scored for defensemen.

He is trending up, and as I have repeated before, if not for the Kings woeful goal production, he would be a plus player this year.
Those of who actually watch him a lot can see this, those who don't can only point to stats from previous years.

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02-18-2012, 12:36 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Knight of the Realm View Post
um, OK if you say so.

JJ is a -10 this year. The majority of kings are minus or in the single + digits. LA can't score to save its collective life and has been shut out 7 times this year. Hard to gain +'s when your team doesn't score.

Not saying JJ is Mitchell or Scuderi but he is not as terrible as hfboards makes him out to be.
That argument that the Kings can't score is stupid.

It is balanced out by the fact that they are also very good at keeping the puck out of their own net (except when JJ is out there).

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02-18-2012, 12:40 AM
  #188
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Only way I would want Dean to trade Johnson is for a Parise or Nash type forward. The guy is a good player and getting better every year. He was great the past to years when Doughty went down with injuries. He was also really good in the playoffs.

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02-18-2012, 12:41 AM
  #189
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Btw, when JJ is noticeably worse in +/- compared to other Kings' d-men year after year after year..... that tells you something.

Stats may be anomalous here and there but over the long-run, they don't lie.

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02-18-2012, 12:43 AM
  #190
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Only way I would want Dean to trade Johnson is for a Parise or Nash type forward. The guy is a good player and getting better every year. He was great the past to years when Doughty went down with injuries. He was also really good in the playoffs.
If JJ can land a Parise or Nash, the Kings should do it and laugh all the way to the bank.

There may be an idiot GM or two who is still high on JJ because of his draft position. The Kings should find that idiot and capitalize.

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02-18-2012, 12:46 AM
  #191
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
Btw, when JJ is noticeably worse in +/- compared to other Kings' d-men year after year after year..... that tells you something.

Stats may be anomalous here and there but over the long-run, they don't lie.
Exactly. I haven't seen alot of Jack Johnson, but the dozen or so games I've seen combined with his constant stats I see nothing that really makes me believe in Jack Johnson consistently, and defensively.

Much rather go for Voynov and a better package, it seems like LA Kings fans are starting to smarten up to that and offer JJ instead.

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02-18-2012, 12:48 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by King'sPawn View Post
Right now he's on the second pairing on the Kings. Doughty/Scuderi usually handle the top line opponents.
That is because LA pairs a defensive specialist with an offensive puck rusher.

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02-18-2012, 12:49 AM
  #193
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Exactly. I haven't seen alot of Jack Johnson,
Stopped reading after that.

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02-18-2012, 12:51 AM
  #194
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That argument that the Kings can't score is stupid.

It is balanced out by the fact that they are also very good at keeping the puck out of their own net (except when JJ is out there).
There goal differential is zero, stands to reason the guys with the most ice time / higher number of shifts Johnson and Doughty run the highest risk of getting scored upon.

If your going to spew stats, you need to factor in time on ice etc..

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02-18-2012, 12:53 AM
  #195
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That argument that the Kings can't score is stupid.

It is balanced out by the fact that they are also very good at keeping the puck out of their own net (except when JJ is out there).
No it simply isn't. -10, oh my goodness he's terrible. The Kings are what, the 4th best defensive team in the league. They don't get scored on that often and it's not like JJ is a
-30. IF LA was top ten in scoring combined with there excellent D, JJ would have a better number.

+/- is the most overused worthless stat that people judge a player by, especially a player that seems to have pissed in their wheaties.

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02-18-2012, 12:53 AM
  #196
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
Btw, when JJ is noticeably worse in +/- compared to other Kings' d-men year after year after year..... that tells you something.

Stats may be anomalous here and there but over the long-run, they don't lie.
Stats will tell you whatever they are manipulated to convey....

Cmon man...

If you are pre-disposed to thinking JJ is the worst defenseman on the planet, then you are gonna bring out his +/- despite the fact that his plus minus, could very well be all 5 against him and the goalie because the other 4 players decided to **** off and watch the peanut girl....

The +/- stat is the most worthless stat in hockey because it gives you absolutely no context on what the player was doing while the goal was scored, he could have just gotten on the ice from a line change or a penalty and the other team scored on a breakway, there he is a - 1, and you can drudge that out and scream HE SUCKS....HE WAS A -1, EVERYONE ELSE WAS A + 3....OMG HE SUCKS!!!! despite not knowing what the hell happened to make it a -1.

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02-18-2012, 12:55 AM
  #197
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
Btw, when JJ is noticeably worse in +/- compared to other Kings' d-men year after year after year..... that tells you something.

Stats may be anomalous here and there but over the long-run, they don't lie.

Zdeno Chara his first 3 years his plus minus

-8
-27
-27


Stats don't lie

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02-18-2012, 12:56 AM
  #198
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There goal differential is zero, stands to reason the guys with the most ice time / higher number of shifts Johnson and Doughty run the highest risk of getting scored upon.

If your going to spew stats, you need to factor in time on ice etc..
Then why does Doughty have a much better +/- than JJ year after year after year?

This year.... Doughty = 0, JJ = -10

Last year.... Doughty = +13, JJ = -21

Two years ago..... Doughty = +20, JJ = -15

It isn't like the +/- gap is negligible. It's insanely significant.

Hell, we're not just talking Doughty here. Every other LA d-men has a significantly better +/- than JJ year after year after year.

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02-18-2012, 12:58 AM
  #199
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Originally Posted by willch878 View Post
Then why does Doughty have a much better +/- than JJ year after year after year?

This year.... Doughty = 0, JJ = -10

Last year.... Doughty = +13, JJ = -21

Two years ago..... Doughty = +20, JJ = -15

It isn't like the +/- gap is negligible. It's insanely significant.

Hell, we're not just talking Doughty here. Every other LA d-men has a significantly better +/- than JJ year after year after year.
Because Doughty is that the bench when there is pressure, and as he sees if they are about to score, he jumps on the bench.....

Could be true...you don't know, you haven't seen every +/- of Doughty's.

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02-18-2012, 12:59 AM
  #200
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JJ wouldn't need to worry about defense if he was traded to the Flyers. So, not sure why there is even angrument.

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