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Erik Gustafsson assigned to the Phantoms, Feb. 17

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Old
02-18-2012, 03:09 PM
  #26
Damaged Goods
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inb4 someone mentions that Homer compared Gus to Kimmo

This thread is like Groundhog's Day

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02-19-2012, 12:10 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
he is definitely not the only one that has said that about Gus
Honestly, it was like 3-4 people at most, and now people who dont like Gus, bring it up 24/7.

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02-19-2012, 12:19 PM
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Gustafsson's GFON/60 is 4.15, and has the best +/- per 60. Both are the best among out defensemen. Put in the right situations, the team was producing when he was on the ice.

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02-19-2012, 02:15 PM
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still say he needs to put on some muscle, come back at 190-195

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02-19-2012, 03:34 PM
  #30
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Gustafsson's GFON/60 is 4.15, and has the best +/- per 60. Both are the best among out defensemen. Put in the right situations, the team was producing when he was on the ice.

I like the guy, but the sample size is pretty minuscule and most of that can probably be attributed to luck. The Flyers have a terrific SH% and SV% when Gus is on the ice, indicating that his +/- numbers are inflated by puck luck (unless you actually believe that Gus is really so good in subtle, magical ways that he tilts both ends of the ice).

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02-19-2012, 03:41 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I like the guy, but the sample size is pretty minuscule and most of that can probably be attributed to luck. The Flyers have a terrific SH% and SV% when Gus is on the ice, indicating that his +/- numbers are inflated by puck luck (unless you actually believe that Gus is really so good in subtle, magical ways that he tilts both ends of the ice).
Luck or because of how he plays? His QOC is smaller, so that would be a reason why his offensive game is good. I hate when luck is used as an actual statistic.

An example is when a goalie doesnt make a save. Was he unlucky or was he just outskilled by the other player? My engineering/scientific side says outskilled by factual contents.

But since we are talking about luck, is Carle's bad corsi/sv% due to being unlucky or because his skill defensively isnt too good? See where Im getting at? I think in this case, his high sv% and sh% is due to his skill (and in cases who he faces and plays with) instead of "magic" or luck.

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02-19-2012, 03:48 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Luck or because of how he plays? His QOC is smaller, so that would be a reason why his offensive game is good. I hate when luck is used as an actual statistic.

An example is when a goalie doesnt make a save. Was he unlucky or was he just outskilled by the other player? My engineering/scientific side says outskilled by factual contents.

But since we are talking about luck, is Carle's bad corsi/sv% due to being unlucky or because his skill defensively isnt too good? See where Im getting at?

Gus's +/- numbers are not sustainable at his skill level. His on-ice SV% and SH% numbers should stick out to you like a red flag, not a badge of honor, just like a pitcher with a .200 BABIP. You have to understand that a lot of hockey results are outside of an individual player's control, and giving a player 100% credit for certain results just because he is on the ice is going to directly lead to misattributions (ie. the Flyers just demoted their most effective two-way /60 defenseman today).

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02-19-2012, 03:55 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Gus's +/- numbers are not sustainable at his skill level. His on-ice SV% and SH% numbers should stick out to you like a red flag, not a badge of honor, just like a pitcher with a .200 BABIP. You have to understand that a lot of hockey results are outside of an individual player's control, and giving a player 100% credit for certain results just because he is on the ice is going to directly lead to misattributions (ie. the Flyers just demoted their most effective two-way /60 defenseman today).
This is exactly what I am saying... where are we disagreeing? Is that considered luck or statistical contributions from other members of the team? Also how do you classify his skill? His statistics show that he was average defensively while contributing offensively.

When looking at hockey advanced stats, you need to take in almost everything to get a, somewhat, clear view of how a player is doing. This includes QOC, QOT, Corsi, Fenwick, etc etc. If we start qualifying these as luck, than how/what do we base a player off of? Just watching them? I see that as more opinionated than actual fact.

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02-19-2012, 04:01 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I like the guy, but the sample size is pretty minuscule and most of that can probably be attributed to luck. The Flyers have a terrific SH% and SV% when Gus is on the ice, indicating that his +/- numbers are inflated by puck luck (unless you actually believe that Gus is really so good in subtle, magical ways that he tilts both ends of the ice).
No doubt that it's a small sample size, but not much else to go by. Matt Walker actually has a better GFON/60 - but it only accounts for 3 goals. I'm fine with Gus going to the minors anyways, but by next year they either need to decide that he is going to stay full time, or make a different decision. If this team ever had any legit prospects on defense, Gus would be down the line as someone who was just getting a shot and earned another one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Luck or because of how he plays? His QOC is smaller, so that would be a reason why his offensive game is good. I hate when luck is used as an actual statistic.

An example is when a goalie doesnt make a save. Was he unlucky or was he just outskilled by the other player? My engineering/scientific side says outskilled by factual contents.

But since we are talking about luck, is Carle's bad corsi/sv% due to being unlucky or because his skill defensively isnt too good? See where Im getting at? I think in this case, his high sv% and sh% is due to his skill (and in cases who he faces and plays with) instead of "magic" or luck.
It seems though that luck is generally accepted anyways. There's other reasons, but shooting percentage seems to be the nuts and bolts of it.

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02-19-2012, 04:08 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
This is exactly what I am saying... where are we disagreeing? Is that considered luck or statistical contributions from other members of the team? Also how do you classify his skill? His statistics show that he was average defensively while contributing offensively.
That's the problem with taking these numbers at face value. You need to apply some Bayesian theory. Which is more likely: Gus right now is still only marginal player who happened to get lucky with his +/- numbers in a small sample size, or Gus just stepped onto the NHL scene with the rare kind of skills needed to substantially tip SH% and SV% at both ends of the ice... ? I would bet on the former.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
When looking at hockey advanced stats, you need to take in almost everything to get a clear view of how a player is doing. This includes QOC, QOT, Corsi, Fenwick, etc etc. If we start qualifying these as luck, than how/what do we base a player off of? Just watching them? I see that as more opinionated than actual fact.
"Viewing comprehension" still plays a gigantic role because NHL stats are nowhere near advanced enough to deal with the randomness issue very well on their own. These on-ice stats don't even attempt to address it, and I assume any serious champion of the stat would caution you from utilizing it they way you are. I don't think it's meant to draw the kind of inferences you want to draw from it.

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