Ellis has 2 PP points and only plays on the 2nd unit which rarely scores, so he really hasn't been that much of a help. Our PP is great this year because of the big boys.
Yeah I agree with beatmypecker that this is likely 1 of many trial runs. Ellis will get another shot.
If my math is right Ellis has a higher power play point rate when factoring in Power Play time on ice than Weber does. Without a doubt the 2nd unit is much more of a threat when Ellis is back on the point. With the current lineup I expect Boullion back on that 2nd PP which hurts the second unit bad.
I'm not surprised by this move Trotz always favors Veterans until they give him a reason not to and rightfully so. If the plan really is to go with Klein-Boullion then I wouldn't expect Ellis to be out of the lineup for long. He'll get another shot soon enough. I think over the next few weeks your going to see Ellis,Josi and Boullion scratched to see what kind of configuration really works for the D.
If my math is right Ellis has a higher power play point rate when factoring in Power Play time on ice than Weber does. Without a doubt the 2nd unit is much more of a threat when Ellis is back on the point. With the current lineup I expect Boullion back on that 2nd PP which hurts the second unit bad.
I'm not surprised by this move Trotz always favors Veterans until they give him a reason not to and rightfully so. If the plan really is to go with Klein-Boullion then I wouldn't expect Ellis to be out of the lineup for long. He'll get another shot soon enough. I think over the next few weeks your going to see Ellis,Josi and Boullion scratched to see what kind of configuration really works for the D.
You can't look at it that way because you are insinuating that Ellis should hold the top PP spot over Weber. Bottom line is of our 4 PP men, Ellis is the least important and he isn't a "major reason" why our PP is good this year.
I think I read somewhere that Kostitsyn will take over the 2nd unit point, not Bouillon.
You can't look at it that way because you are insinuating that Ellis should hold the top PP spot over Weber. Bottom line is of our 4 PP men, Ellis is the least important and he isn't a "major reason" why our PP is good this year.
I think I read somewhere that Kostitsyn will take over the 2nd unit point, not Bouillon.
That's not what I'm insinuating. You were trying to make a case Ellis isn't an important PP member but in reality he is. The stats don't lie. Ellis is getting quite a bit more PP time than Josi so one can make the reasonable assumption that the coaches rate him the 3rd most important D-man for the PP.
Right now the coaches are hoping the increased stability of having more steady Vets outweighs the abilities that Ellis brings to the game. It might or it might not. Personally I don't care as long as we win. But there is no doubt the 2nd PP will suffer especially if Boullion is manning that point. Obviously the second unit isn't as important as the first but I don't think Trotz sends the 2nd unit out there with 40 seconds to a minute left on the PP expecting them just to be fodder wasting time until the PP is over.
Bottom line is just the threat of having Ellis's abilities on the PP makes the PP overall much more dangerous. Perhaps it won't be a big deal or maybe it will. Maybe SK will do a good job on the point. I know he did it in Junior and when he was with the Habs. After watching Sully at the point though I can't help but be a little apprehensive of forwards playing the PP point. I hope those fears are put to rest.
That's not what I'm insinuating. You were trying to make a case Ellis isn't an important PP member but in reality he is. The stats don't lie. Ellis is getting quite a bit more PP time than Josi so one can make the reasonable assumption that the coaches rate him the 3rd most important D-man for the PP.
Right now the coaches are hoping the increased stability of having more steady Vets outweighs the abilities that Ellis brings to the game. It might or it might not. Personally I don't care as long as we win. But there is no doubt the 2nd PP will suffer especially if Boullion is manning that point. Obviously the second unit isn't as important as the first but I don't think Trotz sends the 2nd unit out there with 40 seconds to a minute left on the PP expecting them just to be fodder wasting time until the PP is over.
Bottom line is just the threat of having Ellis's abilities on the PP makes the PP overall much more dangerous. Perhaps it won't be a big deal or maybe it will. Maybe SK will do a good job on the point. I know he did it in Junior and when he was with the Habs. After watching Sully at the point though I can't help but be a little apprehensive of forwards playing the PP point. I hope those fears are put to rest.
That's not what I'm insinuating. You were trying to make a case Ellis isn't an important PP member but in reality he is. The stats don't lie. Ellis is getting quite a bit more PP time than Josi so one can make the reasonable assumption that the coaches rate him the 3rd most important D-man for the PP.
Right now the coaches are hoping the increased stability of having more steady Vets outweighs the abilities that Ellis brings to the game. It might or it might not. Personally I don't care as long as we win. But there is no doubt the 2nd PP will suffer especially if Boullion is manning that point. Obviously the second unit isn't as important as the first but I don't think Trotz sends the 2nd unit out there with 40 seconds to a minute left on the PP expecting them just to be fodder wasting time until the PP is over.
Bottom line is just the threat of having Ellis's abilities on the PP makes the PP overall much more dangerous. Perhaps it won't be a big deal or maybe it will. Maybe SK will do a good job on the point. I know he did it in Junior and when he was with the Habs. After watching Sully at the point though I can't help but be a little apprehensive of forwards playing the PP point. I hope those fears are put to rest.
Again, Ellis isn't a "major reason" for the overall success of our PP this year. You must be misreading my posts because I never said he wasn't important.
Weber and Suter are "major reasons." Josi and Ellis are "minor reasons."
Why scratch Ryan Ellis? Only a game removed from his 2 point performance against Chicago, it seems like a valid question. Assuming Weber, Suter, Klein, and now Gill are safe, what does Roman Josi (9 points, but -10) and Francis Bouillon (7 points in twice as many games), have over Ryan Ellis' 9 points and +8 rating?
Only half the stats tell half the tale, though. Let's look a little deeper at the Preds defenseman. I created this sortable table to compare each player's 5-on-5 performance:
By default, the table is sorted by quality of competition, in which Ellis ranks dead last. Trotz never uses Ellis against top lines, if he can help it. Another measure of strength of minutes is zone starts, or the percentage of times the player starts his shift in the offensive zone versus defensive zone. Here, Trotz has found another way of protecting Ellis, sending him out whenever the Preds get a whistle in the offensive zone.
Roman Josi, by contrast, has faced some of toughest minutes (42.7% zone starts). And their results reflect that difference. Josi is -10 on the season, because he does much of the team's defensive heavy lifting, along with Klein, Weber, and Suter. Ryan Ellis is +8 because he's used like a power play specialist, even at even-strength.
Should Ellis be punished for making the most of the opportunities given to him? That's a trickier question and one we debated with Cody Franson/Kevin Klein. But if Franson's time with the Predators taught us anything, if Trotz doesn't trust the player with a greater role, there's a reason, and he won't change his mind in the middle of a stretch run.
Carrying a power play specialist would have been defensible on past Predators teams, but this year Weber, Suter, and Josi have all been excellent on the man-up. And the acquisition of Gill for the PK frees up Weber and Suter for more PP minutes. Given that Trotz trusts Josi and Bouillon to help carry the load at even strength, scratching Ellis works to the benefit of everyone.
Why scratch Ryan Ellis? Only a game removed from his 2 point performance against Chicago, it seems like a valid question. Assuming Weber, Suter, Klein, and now Gill are safe, what does Roman Josi (9 points, but -10) and Francis Bouillon (7 points in twice as many games), have over Ryan Ellis' 9 points and +8 rating?
Only half the stats tell half the tale, though. Let's look a little deeper at the Preds defenseman. I created this sortable table to compare each player's 5-on-5 performance:
By default, the table is sorted by quality of competition, in which Ellis ranks dead last. Trotz never uses Ellis against top lines, if he can help it. Another measure of strength of minutes is zone starts, or the percentage of times the player starts his shift in the offensive zone versus defensive zone. Here, Trotz has found another way of protecting Ellis, sending him out whenever the Preds get a whistle in the offensive zone.
Roman Josi, by contrast, has faced some of toughest minutes (42.7% zone starts). And their results reflect that difference. Josi is -10 on the season, because he does much of the team's defensive heavy lifting, along with Klein, Weber, and Suter. Ryan Ellis is +8 because he's used like a power play specialist, even at even-strength.
Should Ellis be punished for making the most of the opportunities given to him? That's a trickier question and one we debated with Cody Franson/Kevin Klein. But if Franson's time with the Predators taught us anything, if Trotz doesn't trust the player with a greater role, there's a reason, and he won't change his mind in the middle of a stretch run.
Carrying a power play specialist would have been defensible on past Predators teams, but this year Weber, Suter, and Josi have all been excellent on the man-up. And the acquisition of Gill for the PK frees up Weber and Suter for more PP minutes. Given that Trotz trusts Josi and Bouillon to help carry the load at even strength, scratching Ellis works to the benefit of everyone.
Excellent article. Exactly why the old idiom "the stats don't lie" is in itself just that: a lie. Will Ellis be missed on the 2nd PP unit? Yes of course. But our overall PP success won't miss him too much because the 2nd unit is not crucial to our sucess and the 1st unit will be seeing more time.
