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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VI

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Old
02-23-2012, 01:57 PM
  #76
seventieslord
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Rising players

Here are some players whose draft position keeps going up every year.

To avoid a very tiny drop breaking a good streak, I considered a “rise” to be a rise OR a drop of less than 3%. So a guy who went 600-550-554-500-450-400 could still be said to be a player who has been on the rise all along.

5 straight rises:

Sergei Gonchar, 363-330-275-257-249-229
Eric Staal, 833-671-659-649-426-433
Ted Kennedy, 75-72-68-64-59
Scotty Bowman, 287-259-247-208-201
Marian Hossa, 511-415-374-288-241
Fred Shero, 359-363-372-373-369 (doesn’t really count! Interesting example of the system failing)
Bill Hajt, 530-522-506-455-408-416
Martin St. Louis, 514-430-374-312-248-183
Henrik Sedin, 1115-1114-900-589-339-286
Pat Egan, 606-587-531-431-325-323
Brad Richards, 704-708-688-595-345-352

6 straight rises:

Denis Potvin, 15-12-11-11-11-10-10
Jan Suchy, 284-239-219-189-153-156-142
Harvey Pulford, 551-335-344-335-213-217-167
Herb Gardiner, 272-221-220-222-220-222-205
Frank Fredrickson, 612-461-395-318-300-260-215
Frank Patrick, 533-449-381-362-360-300-306
Ziggy Palffy, 782-687-560-554-449-411-346
Milan Novy, 784-567-543-440-414-416-371
Art Duncan, 817-527-528-448-428-391-372
Ted Harris, 549-454-392-400-408-389-381
Glen Harmon, 754-620-476-450-453-419-389
Harry Westwick: 712-579-527-461-441-433-415
Smokey Harris: 806-713-704-651-521-487-421
Camille Henry: 680-677-622-599-513-429-431
Frank Boucher: 116-79-66-62-61-52-51
Reg Noble: 329-309-300-209-198-154-156
Harry Watson: 584-549-502-449-432-438-366

7 straight rises:

Bill Quackenbush: 107-97-94-92-92-94-91-78
Jarome Iginla: 165-142-124-125-128-126-129-108
Don McKenney: 524-496-408-388-377-383-366-349

8 straight rises:

Lester Patrick: 542-456-398-346-275-215-188-175-173
Dan Boyle: N/A-900-821-745-722-696-675-470-338
Marty Walsh: N/A-975-768-663-638-560-490-388-347
Russell Bowie: 949-681-644-556-533-45-427-286-226

9 straight rises:

Norm Ullman: 210-163-139-121-111-110-106-105-90-84
Hooley Smith: 384-233-211-203-169-141-125-121-109-105
Pavel Datsyuk: N/A-699-697-398-598-303-291-289-194-150
Tommy Phillips: 677-428-335-334-337-334-253-216-179-154
Art Coulter: 320-236-216-182-173-170-168-170-171-161
Bruce Stuart: N/A-765-615-536-545-534-473-473-471-425

10 straight rises:

Cy Wentworth: N/A-513-439-337-281-240-246-229-218-214-217

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02-23-2012, 02:02 PM
  #77
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very interesting , I can take for granted you are currently working on players who are falling ?

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02-23-2012, 02:03 PM
  #78
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Holy smokes.. Ullman in the top-100?

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Old
02-23-2012, 02:11 PM
  #79
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That's great work, seventies. Very interesting look into the evolution of our ideas about certain players.

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02-23-2012, 02:11 PM
  #80
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Falling Players

Here are some players whose draft position keeps going down every year.

To avoid a very tiny rise breaking a good streak, I considered a “fall” to be a fall OR a rise of less than 3%. So a guy who went 100-150-148-200-250-300 could still be said to be a player who has been falling all along.

4 straight falls:

Bun Cook: 176-179-187-209-221
Tim Kerr: 154-178-176-221-227
Bobby Rousseau: 319-348-338-329-360
Vsevolod Bobrov: 213-247-253-316-345
Wendel Clark: 264-268-316-399-393
Craig Hartsburg: 248-271-303-340-362
Rick Tocchet: 183-286-285-297-302
Nick Metz: 250-258-277-313-325
Steve Larmer: 230-243-259-262-236
Brad Park: 31-32-34-35-34
Glenn Anderson: 143-166-178-183-182
Fred Stanfield: 311-393-401-393-390
Ron Ellis: 336-352-354-346-403
Bob Pulford: 270-269-284-285-307
Fred Shero (LOL!)

5 straight falls:

Chuck Gardiner: 59-103-113-146-150-147
Harry Howell: 113-134-136-142-164-168
Carl Brewer: 123-122-122-124-133-136
Ted Lindsay: 15-17-21-21-26-31
Alexander Yakushev: 167-168-194-205-207-237
Mark Messier: 14-14-18-25-27-28
Babe Pratt: 118-195-204-223-259-256
Maurice Richard: 9-10-10-10-11-12
Dale Hawerchuk: 114-119-142-140-145-144

6 straight falls:

Brian Propp: 169-171-180-207-212-211-214
Don Marcotte: 307-306-337-398-405-404-397
Phil Housley: 159-217-265-282-283-292-284
Tom Johnson: 106-105-113-117-136-141-175
Reggie Leach: 265-260-263-314-308-308-394
Brent Sutter: 210-211-304-339-379-368-379
Jiri Holecek: 76-119-116-127-174-169-195
Butch Bouchard: 87-91-96-100-119-118-123

7 straight falls:

Johnny Bower: 46-61-63-82-82-92-94-103

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02-23-2012, 02:16 PM
  #81
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I don't understand how this one counts as a fall:
Steve Larmer: 230-243-259-262-236

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Old
02-23-2012, 02:17 PM
  #82
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Could you give us a list of the biggest single rises and falls, and from which draft to which draft?

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02-23-2012, 02:30 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't understand how this one counts as a fall:
Steve Larmer: 230-243-259-262-236
He went at 263 this draft, so seventieslord is probably just dylsexic.

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Old
02-23-2012, 03:04 PM
  #84
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I don't understand how this one counts as a fall:
Steve Larmer: 230-243-259-262-236
Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
He went at 263 this draft, so seventieslord is probably just dylsexic.
correct.

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Old
02-23-2012, 03:14 PM
  #85
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Could you give us a list of the biggest single rises and falls, and from which draft to which draft?
probably percentage-wise would make more sense, right?

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Old
02-23-2012, 03:17 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
probably percentage-wise would make more sense, right?
Yes, although the raw numbers would also be interesting to see. But of course...rising from 200 to 150 is a lot more meaningful than rising from 600 to 550.

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02-23-2012, 03:17 PM
  #87
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How about percentage vs. #2 ?

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Old
02-23-2012, 03:19 PM
  #88
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Shaddap.

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02-23-2012, 03:33 PM
  #89
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I'm not a stats guy, but here's my actual contribution:

Would something based around adding up the range of picks between the two drafting points be somehow valuable in terms of comparing the value of picks from the 1st round vs. the 10th round? Not the number of spots moved, but the numerical value of the spots in between the two picks, if that makes any sense. So the value would obviously much smaller in the first round than in the 10th round. Then somehow relate that value to the number of picks moved.

And then divide stuff and use percentages or something. Idunno, I don't math.


Last edited by arrbez: 02-23-2012 at 03:40 PM.
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Old
02-23-2012, 03:36 PM
  #90
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I dunno. There are, like, tiers, and stuff.

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02-23-2012, 03:41 PM
  #91
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A couple vertical mosaics and triangle graphs may be in order.

SYNERGY

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Old
02-23-2012, 04:42 PM
  #92
seventieslord
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Biggest drops ever (ATD 7 and on):

- Vladimir Vikulov went from 601 in ATD7 to 1029 in ATD8 (-428)
- Eric Staal went from 505 in ATD7 to 827 in ATD8 (-322)
- Frank McGee went from 240 in ATD7 to 540 in ATD8 (-300)
- Jack Adams went from 506 in ATD8 to 753 in ATD9 (-247)
- Vladimir Martinec went from 410 in ATD7 to 649 in ATD8 (-239)
- Vic Hadfield went from 338 in ATD10 to 573 in ATD11 (-235)
- Anatoly Tarasov went from 487 in ATD8 to 716 in ATD9 (-229)
- Tony Esposito went from 200 in ATD9 to 427 in ATD10 (-227)


Biggest rises ever

- Evgeni Malkin went from 667 in ATD10 to 224 in ATD11 (+443)
- Helmuts Balderis went from 749 in ATD9 to 394 in ATD10 (+355)
- Rene Robert went from 776 in ATD7 to 427 in ATD8 (+349)
- Jack Adams went from 843 in ATD7 to 506 in ATD8 (+337)
- Evgeni Malkin went from 1078 in ATD8 to 747 in ATD9 (+331)
- Eddie Oatman went from 933 in ATD8 to 615 in ATD9 (+318)
- Vladimir Shadrin went from 689 in ATD7 to 377 in ATD8 (+312)
- Daniel Sedin went from 900 in ATD12 to 589 in ATD2010 (+311)
- Vladimir Vikulov went from 960 in ATD9 to 657 in ATD10 (+303)

The swings have become less drastic as the drafts go on… which is to be expected.

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02-23-2012, 04:56 PM
  #93
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I like how Vikulov is on both list!

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02-23-2012, 05:02 PM
  #94
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In defense of seventies earlier there are about half a dozen guys on the Staal tier that I was considering. I just liked what Staal offered a bit more as I've discussed with him already. And I didn't even use my full argument there yet.

It also doesn't hurt that Staal is a Cane either.

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02-23-2012, 05:49 PM
  #95
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Sorry all, just got in from work and I've sorted through a multitude of trade offers for my pick.

Seeing as how I'm pretty sure my pick will still be there, I'm dropping down a few spots in a deal with Inglewood Jacks.

To Dawson City:

#438, #447

To Inglewood Jacks:

#434, #463

arrbez has said he'll take the penalty for acquiring a pick that's on the clock.

With his pick, he selects Lloyd Cook, D.

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02-23-2012, 05:50 PM
  #96
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Rises and falls don't mean anything to me, because some drafts have 200 more players than others such as last year and this year. The only thing that means anything to me is what order they were taken at their position and offensive and defensive defensemen would have to be separated for it to have any meaning for me.

On a different topic, I think the differences between players gets smaller the farther you get from the first round. I'm not saying the 800th BPA is as good as the 1000th BPA. I'm saying the difference is much smaller than the one between Bobby Orr and Jimmy Thomson for example.

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02-23-2012, 06:01 PM
  #97
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Lloyd Cook was a great player, but reading Nalyd's old profile, I still can't figure out if he was more of an offensive or defensive defenseman.

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Old
02-23-2012, 06:18 PM
  #98
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Made Me View Post
Rises and falls don't mean anything to me, because some drafts have 200 more players than others such as last year and this year. The only thing that means anything to me is what order they were taken at their position and offensive and defensive defensemen would have to be separated for it to have any meaning for me.

On a different topic, I think the differences between players gets smaller the farther you get from the first round. I'm not saying the 800th BPA is as good as the 1000th BPA. I'm saying the difference is much smaller than the one between Bobby Orr and Jimmy Thomson for example.
Obviously.

Thatís why trades look like this:

50 and 450

For

100 and 250

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02-23-2012, 06:20 PM
  #99
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Lloyd Cook was a great player, but reading Nalyd's old profile, I still can't figure out if he was more of an offensive or defensive defenseman.
The conclusion I've reached is jack of all trades, master of none.

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Old
02-23-2012, 07:44 PM
  #100
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I keep track by writing down every single player I think of taking (all of them red wing players obviously) then tear the piece of paper and make a lottery out of it. I always win since they are all Red Wings.

I've updated my roster post since it's such a crime to discard it for the time being.
I said please, didn't I?

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