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Lombardi's drafting in the first two rounds

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02-24-2012, 07:33 PM
  #1
Monarchist
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Lombardi's drafting in the first two rounds

It is difficult to judge a GM's ability to evaluate/develop players. Every GM, no matter how good, has selected busts only to have players they passed over become elite. Every GM, no matter how bad, has gotten lucky. But since no two draft picks are simultaneous, you don't know what other GMs would have done. And each GM is picking in a different spot. So how can we compare records?

I thought of a way to compare Lombardi to an average GM. I took a spreadsheet and moved things to see who was drafted when after Lombardi's selections until 2009. For example, people complain that Lucic was taken two picks after Joey Ryan, and they are right Lombardi should have picked him, but it's hard for us to know if he should have known that, and how much other GMs knew. So here is the list of *all* players taken two spots after all of Lombardi's choices in the first two rounds: Jiri Tlusty, Mark Mitera, Sam Gagner, Erik Karlsson, Milan Lucic, Jeremy Smith, Maxime Macenauer, Jake Allen, Matt Clark, Alex Pietrangelo, Nazem Kadri. I think it's much more meaningful to ask "Should Lombardi have *always* drafted the guy picked two picks lower," than it is to ask "Should Lombardi have drafted this one particular guy that was picked two picks lower."

I think it's fair to compare Lombardi's choices with who GMs actually thought it was a good idea to pick soon after. We can compare Lombardi's list with the lists of those taken later to get an idea of how well he is doing against an average GM.

This doesn't completely evaluate his drafting/development ability because it doesn't take into account trading up and trading down in the draft - and area where he has clearly made terrible mistakes. But it does provide a new way to look at things.

Two times in the first round, there was a clear consensus pick that it's hard to give DL credit for making: Doughty and Schenn. The players that were picked after them are last in the lists, if you think it is fair, ignore those when evaluating.

Even though all of these lists are of players picked after the Kings' picks, by random chance alone we should expect a few lists to be better than Lombardi's. However, his list should be one of the best, since in every case he had a higher pick.

I made these lists expecting them to show Lombardi much worse than the average GM. Surprisingly, Lombardi's selections (even if not giving him credit for Doughty and Schenn) are not too bad compared to picks a few picks later. His total record is about as good as an average GM picking just a little later. Bad, but not too bad.

Lombardi has failed when trading up and down in drafts. He's also below average at drafting in the first two rounds. In my opinion, he's not as disastrously bad as it seems when thinking about just his more notable failures and his trades. My opinion of him went up. I now think he is pretty bad at drafting and I no longer think he is terrible.

Here are the lists:

Actual Kings draft choices, first two rounds, 2006-9:

Jonathan Bernier
Trevor Lewis
Thomas Hickey
Colten Teubert
Joey Ryan
Oscar Moller
Wayne Simmonds
Vyacheslav Voynov
Kyle Clifford
Drew Doughty
Brayden Schenn

Players picked:

1 pick later:
Bryan Little
Chris Stewart
Karl Alzner
Zach Boychuk
Ben Maxwell
Will Weber
Mark Katic
Philip McRae
Chris Brown
Zach Bogosian
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

2:
Jiri Tlusty
Mark Mitera
Sam Gagner
Erik Karlsson
Milan Lucic
Jeremy Smith
Maxime Macenauer
Jake Allen
Matt Clark
Alex Pietrangelo
Nazem Kadri

3:
Michael Grabner
David Fischer
Jakub Voracek
Joe Colborne
Nigel Williams
T.J. Galiardi
Sergei Korostin
Nicolas Deschamps
Alex Chiasson
Luke Schenn
Scott Glennie

4:
Riku Helenius
Bob Sanguinetti
Zach Hamill
Jake Gardiner
Keith Seabrook
Akim Aliu
Olivier Fortier
Corey Trivino
Jakob Silfverberg
Nikita Filatov
Jared Cowen

5:
Ty Wishart
Claude Giroux
Logan Couture
Chet Pickard
Mathieu Carle
Mike Hoeffel
Garrett Klotz
Cody Goloubef
Anton Lander
Colin Wilson
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson

6:
Trevor Lewis
Semyon Varlamov
Keaton Ellerby
Luca Sbisa
Artem Anisimov
Nick Spaling
Spencer Machacek
Roman Josi
Zach Budish
Mikkel Boedker
Ryan Ellis

7:
Chris Stewart
Dennis Persson
Brandon Sutter
Michael Del Zotto
Denis Bodrov
Drew Schiestel
Jake Hansen
Eric O'Dell
Charles-Olivier Roussel
Joshua Bailey
Calvin de Haan

8:
Mark Mitera
Patrik Berglund
Ryan McDonagh
Anton Gustafsson
Blake Geoffrion
Ruslan Bashkirov
Maxime Tanguay
Aaron Ness
William Wrenn
Cody Hodgson
Zack Kassian

9:
David Fischer
Leland Irving
Lars Eller
Jordan Eberle
Mike Weber
Wayne Simmonds
John Negrin
Yann Sauve
Drew Shore
Kyle Beach
Dmitri Kulikov

10:
Bob Sanguinetti
Ivan Vishnevskiy
Kevin Shattenkirk
Tyler Cuma
Alexander Vasyunov
Mark Katic
Evgeny Dadonov
Patrick Wiercioch
Jeremy Morin
Tyler Myers
Peter Holland

11:
Claude Giroux
Nick Foligno
Alex Plante
Mattias Tedenby
Codey Burki
Maxime Macenauer
Drayson Bowman
Justin Schultz
Robin Lehner
Colten Teubert
Nick Leddy

12:
Semyon Varlamov
Chris Summers
Colton Gillies
Greg Nemisz
Jesse Joensuu
Sergei Korostin
Yannick Weber
Luke Adam
Ethan Werek
Zach Boychuk
David Rundblad

13:
Dennis Persson
Matt Corrente
Alexei Cherepanov
Tyler Ennis
Simon Danis-Pepin
Olivier Fortier
Dale Mitchell
Zac Dalpe
Brett Ponich
Erik Karlsson
Louis Leblanc

14:
Patrik Berglund
Tomas Kana
Ian Cole
John Carlson
Dick Axelsson
Garrett Klotz
Luca Cunti
Colby Robak
Stefan Elliott
Joe Colborne
Chris Kreider

15:
Leland Irving
Carl Sneep
Logan MacMillan
Viktor Tikhonov
Jamie McBain
Spencer Machacek
Jason Gregoire
Maxime Sauve
Kenny Ryan
Jake Gardiner
Jacob Josefson

16:
Ivan Vishnevskiy
Igor Makarov
Angelo Esposito
Daultan Leveille
Jonas Junland
Jake Hansen
Alexander Killorn
Mitch Wahl
Brian Dumoulin
Chet Pickard
John Moore

17:
Nick Foligno
Michal Neuvirth
Riley Nash
Thomas McCollum
Brian Strait
Maxime Tanguay
Robert Bortuzzo
Jared Staal
Richard Panik
Luca Sbisa
Jordan Schroeder

18:
Chris Summers
Francois Bouchard
Max Pacioretty
Jacob Markstrom
Ryan White
John Negrin
Nick Palmieri
Cameron Gaunce
Anton Rodin
Michael Del Zotto
Tim Erixon

19:
Matt Corrente
Jamie McGinn
Jonathan Blum
Vyacheslav Voynov
Kirill Tulupov
Evgeny Dadonov
Casey Pierro-Zabotel
Derek Stepan
Eric Gelinas
Anton Gustafsson
Marcus Johansson

20:
Tomas Kana
Yuri Alexandrov
Mikael Backlund
Philip McRae
Eric Gryba
Drayson Bowman
Ryan Thang
Brandon Burlon
Dmitri Orlov
Jordan Eberle
Jordan Caron

21:
Carl Sneep
Bryce Swan
Patrick White
Nicolas Deschamps
Steve Mason
Yannick Weber
Bryan Cameron
Travis Hamonic
Kevin Lynch
Tyler Cuma
Kyle Palmieri

22:
Igor Makarov
Andreas Nodl
David Perron
Corey Trivino
Robin Figren
Dale Mitchell
Timo Pielmeier
Patrice Cormier
Taylor Doherty
Mattias Tedenby
Philippe Paradis

23:
Michal Neuvirth
Ondrej Fiala
Brendan Smith
Cody Goloubef
Brad Marchand
Luca Cunti
Philip DeSimone
Marco Scandella
Jesse Blacker
Greg Nemisz
Dylan Olsen

24:
Francois Bouchard
Cory Emmerton
Nick Petrecki
Roman Josi
Cal Clutterbuck
Jason Gregoire
Brett Sonne
Danny Kristo
Brandon Pirri
Tyler Ennis
Carter Ashton

25:
Jamie McGinn
Mike Ratchuk
Jim O'Brien
Eric O'Dell
Brady Calla
Alexander Killorn
Josh Unice
Eric Mestery
Tomas Tatar
John Carlson
Simon Despres

26:
Yuri Alexandrov
Riley Holzapfel
Nick Ross
Aaron Ness
Jeff Zatkoff
Robert Bortuzzo
Corbin McPherson
Dmitri Kugryshev
Philip Samuelsson
Viktor Tikhonov
Mikko Koskinen

27:
Bryce Swan
Nikolai Kulemin
T.J. Brennan
Yann Sauve
Theo Peckham
Nick Palmieri
Joakim Andersson
Tyler Beskorowany
Anders Nilsson
Daultan Leveille
Landon Ferraro

28:
Andreas Nodl
Jeff Petry
Brett MacLean
Patrick Wiercioch
Tony Lagerstrom
Casey Pierro-Zabotel
Corey Tropp
Jimmy Hayes
Ben Hanowski
Thomas McCollum
Ryan O'Reilly

29:
Ondrej Fiala
Jhonas Enroth
Taylor Ellington
Justin Schultz
Vladimir Zharkov
Ryan Thang
Louie Caporusso
Peter Delmas
Tyson Barrie
Jacob Markstrom
Carl Klingberg

Just for fun: BPA when Lombardi was drafting. The Kings could have had all these guys:

Jonathan Bernier/Bryan Little/Michael Grabner
Claude Giroux
Logan Couture
Jordan Eberle
Milan Lucic
T.J. Galiardi
Wayne Simmonds
Vyacheslav Voynov
Tomas Tatar/Jeremy Morin
Drew Doughty
Brayden Schenn

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Old
02-24-2012, 07:48 PM
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Fishhead
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DL is an above average drafter. His team/scouts have been average in early rounds, but above average in later rounds.

Martinez and Loktionov are great later pickups, and we'll see on King, Nolan, Kozun, Vey, and Kitsyn. Some of those guys have really good potential for where they were drafted.

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02-24-2012, 07:55 PM
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Telos
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A list like this could be made about every team in the NHL.

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02-24-2012, 07:57 PM
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Scottkmlps
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Would've, could've, should've applies to EVERY team in the league.

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02-24-2012, 08:07 PM
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Monarchist
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scottkmlps View Post
Would've, could've, should've applies to EVERY team in the league.
The point is to compare a GM's picks to those picked later. If the list of all players picked one pick later is better than a GM's picks, and the list of all players picked two picks later is better than a GM's picks, and three, etc. the GM sucks. If the lists are noticeable worse, the GM is good.

That simply does not apply to every team in the league. Every team has *individuals* it missed. Not every team has the set of players other GMs decided to pick (one, two, three, four...etc.) better than the set of players they picked.

Lombardi happens to have the set of players he picked better than a few of the immediately later lists, and worse than a few. That's about average.

Not every GM will have that be true.

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02-24-2012, 09:22 PM
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BigBrown
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Interesting read. I think Lombardi's selected group of guys is definitely comparable to most other selections you posted (as it should be). I wish them all would have been slam dunks, but what are you gonna do.

Sorry for bringing up a minor point, but Doughty wasn't the clear consensus. As I remember it, it was fairly evenly split between draft services on whether Bogosian or Doughty was the top d-man. In retrospect, it would have been unforgivable for DL had he selected Bogosian instead of Doughty.

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