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JVR - Luke Schenn - Cory Schneider

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Old
02-26-2012, 08:49 PM
  #101
Campoli2Burrows
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Originally Posted by Kessely Snipes View Post
As an armchair GM, what would it take to get Schneider in a Leafs Jersey in your opinion? I would think the centerpiece would be Schenn, what else?
Now or at the draft? It would be considerably more now, to the point where Burke wouldn't consider it. At the draft I would say Schenn+ with the plus being something like a 2nd.

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02-26-2012, 08:57 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So Schneider is avaible for the right price, but every GMs looking at a goalie in the last 3 years judged there was a better option elsewhere than paying the price Vancouver want for him.

Judging by the number of Schneider proposal, 5-15 every week since the last 3 years, either he is avaible, or the peoples making these proposal lack judgement about his availability.
It seems you're not understanding the obvious point that is being made about your list. Almost every single team that "went cheap" when acquiring those goalies now regrets it, you might as well be arguing in favor of Schneider's value being very very high based on the failures of those "cheap" options in net.

In fact your list convinced me of 1 thing, the Avalanche didn't overpay for Varlamov as much as I thought they did. It was a huge gamble and the Caps are still likely to get a good, possibly great (possibly mediocre too) NHLer out of the deal, but at least the Avs tried to find a long term solution in net (and they may have, we'll have to see what happens when the team in front of Varlamov grows up). Many of the teams who didn't, are now non contenders ( or worse) because they refused make goaltending a priority or thought they were smarter GM's than the teams who did.

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02-26-2012, 10:05 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Andy Dufresne View Post
It seems you're not understanding the obvious point that is being made about your list. Almost every single team that "went cheap" when acquiring those goalies now regrets it, you might as well be arguing in favor of Schneider's value being very very high based on the failures of those "cheap" options in net.
Phoenix doesn't regret Smith
Ottawa doesn't regret Anderson
Florida doesn't regret Theodore
NYI doesn't regret Montoya or Nabokov
San Jose doesnt regret Niemi
Colombus doesnt regret Sanford.

St-Louis doesnt regret Elliot but seem ok with Halak too. Would they be worse team with Elliot + Eller + $ saves on Halak contract ?

Colorado doesn't regret Giguere, but maybe have regret they gave a lot for Varlamov.

Philadelphia regret they didnt went cheaper than 5 333 333$ for a proven Bryzgalov.
Tampa Bay regret they didnt went cheaper than 3 500 000$ for a proven Roloson.

Do Toronto regret their cheap goalie? Maybe, but for the first time in a while they are fighting for the playoff!! In the past they tried very hard to land an elite goalie, they gave asset for Raycroft, Toskala, Giguere and it never made them competitive.

What about Chicago? Maybe they regret, but they are competitive and their GM gave publicly his confidence to Crawford.

Washington? Maybe they regret now they didnt keep Varlamov, but their consolation price (1st+2nd) are year away. Vokoun number are not that bad.

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02-26-2012, 10:15 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Phoenix doesn't regret Smith
Ottawa doesn't regret Anderson
Florida doesn't regret Theodore
NYI doesn't regret Montoya or Nabokov
San Jose doesnt regret Niemi
Colombus doesnt regret Sanford.

St-Louis doesnt regret Elliot but seem ok with Halak too. Would they be worse team with Elliot + Eller + $ saves on Halak contract ?

Colorado doesn't regret Giguere, but maybe have regret they gave a lot for Varlamov.

Philadelphia regret they didnt went cheaper than 5 333 333$ for a proven Bryzgalov.
Tampa Bay regret they didnt went cheaper than 3 500 000$ for a proven Roloson.

Do Toronto regret their cheap goalie? Maybe, but for the first time in a while they are fighting for the playoff!! In the past they tried very hard to land an elite goalie, they gave asset for Raycroft, Toskala, Giguere and it never made them competitive.

What about Chicago? Maybe they regret, but they are competitive and their GM gave publicly his confidence to Crawford.

Washington? Maybe they regret now they didnt keep Varlamov, but their consolation price (1st+2nd) are year away. Vokoun number are not that bad.
It's worth noting that all of the teams who picked up mediocre goalies are, in fact, mediocre teams. San Jose, Chicago and Tampa are the only teams on that list that were cup contenders last year, and I think they all regret their signings now, although I could be wrong about SJ.


Last edited by Campoli2Burrows: 02-26-2012 at 11:11 PM.
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Old
02-26-2012, 10:39 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by khennig16 View Post
Wooow do nuck fans overate Schneider.. Best goalie in the league? Same development as Lundvquist? Schneider would get ripped apart in the leafs system just like Reimer & Gus are.
We need experience.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020908

read this. especially coming from martin brodeur himself.

canucks arent overrating schnieder. his stock value has skyrocketed this year. schnieder is in fact very talented and is an ELITE BACKUP goalie that deserves to be playing the main on some team that really needs a goalie.

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02-26-2012, 11:10 PM
  #106
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To PHI:
Dustin Brown

To LAK:
Van Riemsdyk
1st round pick 2012

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02-26-2012, 11:12 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by khennig16 View Post
Wooow do nuck fans overate Schneider.. Best goalie in the league? Same development as Lundvquist? Schneider would get ripped apart in the leafs system just like Reimer & Gus are.
We need experience.
Trade for Roloson....

I'll trust the best goaltender in the history of the NHL's assessment:

Quote:
"Schneider was pretty spectacular," Devils goalie Martin Brodeur said. "He made some great saves and guys worked really hard. I thought defensively, we played well, holding them to 16 shots and not allowing many scoring chances. But we couldn't put the puck in the net."

Earlier in the day, Brodeur had nothing but praise for Schneider.

"A lot of teams will look at this guy to be a next coming," he said. "I know he's jumping in and out, but eventually it'll be tough to keep him. The team that'll be able to grab him will find themselves a No. 1 goalie."

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02-26-2012, 11:13 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So are you telling me Schneider, Rask or Bernier were not better option available (for the asking price) when these GMs looked at the market?


Well I certainly don't know IF any of these 3 goalies were available the last couple of years. Are you saying you do? I know in Vancouver, our GM has been fairly adamant that he wants Schneider to be available for playoffs so I'm guessing he's NOT been available (draft may be a different matter). I also tend to think Rask in Boston isn't going to be available either given that Thomas is pushing 40. Maybe Bernier has been available though he doesn't seem to be quite in the same tier as the other two. Make no mistake, Schneider won't be available for cheap this summer either, but I happen to think there will be at least one NHL GM who will be willing to meet the price. Let's continue this conversation at that time, yes?

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02-26-2012, 11:21 PM
  #109
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I love how people continue to try and discredit Schneider. Makes them look stupid.

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02-26-2012, 11:22 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
So Schneider is avaible for the right price, but every GMs looking at a goalie in the last 3 years judged there was a better option elsewhere than paying the price Vancouver want for him.

Judging by the number of Schneider proposal, 5-15 every week since the last 3 years, either he is avaible, or the peoples making these proposal lack judgement about his availability.


HF Boards is a bunch of hockey fans who dream up trades to kill time. They are not NHL GMs. Clear that up for you???

So if I am understanding the main tenet of your argument, is it that b/c teams were willing to acquire "cheap" goalie options in the past 1-2 years and were NOT willing to give up the hypothetical "significant value" that it would take to acquire Schneider, you believe that they are not CURRENTLY or will not in the FUTURE be willing to give up said value?

So by this logic, any player who a team has not acquired in the past 1-2 years will never be acquired in the future? For example, b/c Vancouver hasn't acquired Steve Ott yet, there is no possibility they will acquire him tomorrow? Am I actually following you right on this?

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Old
02-26-2012, 11:23 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by SheasRebellion6 View Post
To PHI:
Dustin Brown

To LAK:
Van Riemsdyk
1st round pick 2012
No from this flyers fan.

Would not do JVR for Brown straight up.

Brown is redundant on this team. JVR is a potential 1st line winger to pair w/ Giroux. We do not have anyone else like that currently on the roster.

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02-26-2012, 11:28 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Campoli2Burrows View Post
It's worth noting that all of the teams who picked up mediocre goalies are, in fact, mediocre teams. San Jose, Chicago and Tampa are the only teams on that list that were cup contenders last year, and I think they all regret their signings now, although I could be wrong about SJ.
It's worth noting that

Phoenix improved with Smith
Florida improved with Theodore
Toronto improved too with Reimer

Their ''downgrade'' in goal resulted in an upgrade in the ranking.

Ottawa improved with Anderson.

Colorado is good with a cheap Giguere (15.9.2) and a losing team with Varlamov (17-18-2)

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02-27-2012, 12:21 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
1. HF Boards is a bunch of hockey fans who dream up trades to kill time. They are not NHL GMs. Clear that up for you???

2.So if I am understanding the main tenet of your argument, is it that b/c teams were willing to acquire "cheap" goalie options in the past 1-2 years and were NOT willing to give up the hypothetical "significant value" that it would take to acquire Schneider, you believe that they are not CURRENTLY or will not in the FUTURE be willing to give up said value?

So by this logic, any player who a team has not acquired in the past 1-2 years will never be acquired in the future? For example, b/c Vancouver hasn't acquired Steve Ott yet, there is no possibility they will acquire him tomorrow? Am I actually following you right on this?
1. I know proposal is often dreaming to kill time, but if Schneider is really not available, why is there 10 time more Schneider proposal coming from Vancouver fans than proposal from not available player like Price, Quick, Rinne, Lunqvist. Or is it that Schneider is avaible?

I just think there is a correlation between the number of proposal including a player (by fan of his own team) and his availability. (correlation mean greater than random chance.)

2. You misunderstand me, Hockey Managing is not an exact science like math, Its similar to stock market, and even more similar to the fine art market It often lead to misunderstanding when people try to make a ''rule'' from a general statement, apply them to every possible scenario and invalidate it as soon as it dont work once. Its about finding the general odds that an event happen and even if we make mistake, the point is to be right most often than not. Also, unless the condition change, the past is often a good indication of the future (assurance company make a ton of money from this.)

3. So the interesting question is what could make a Schneider trade possible in the future while he wasn't traded in the past? (and evaluating the odds of each)

- A better timing
- A team improving his offer for Schneider
- Gillis lowering his asking price for Schneider

Well, i will start a thread eventually about this question if he is not traded tomorrow. (The Value of Schneider 2010 vs 2011 vs 2012 and speculating if Gillis took the optimal decision or not.)

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02-27-2012, 01:18 AM
  #114
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Am i The only one that thinks JVR to toronto, Schenn to vancouver, and schneider to philly makes more sense?

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02-27-2012, 02:27 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
1. I know proposal is often dreaming to kill time, but if Schneider is really not available, why is there 10 time more Schneider proposal coming from Vancouver fans than proposal from not available player like Price, Quick, Rinne, Lunqvist. Or is it that Schneider is avaible?

I just think there is a correlation between the number of proposal including a player (by fan of his own team) and his availability. (correlation mean greater than random chance.)

2. You misunderstand me, Hockey Managing is not an exact science like math, Its similar to stock market, and even more similar to the fine art market It often lead to misunderstanding when people try to make a ''rule'' from a general statement, apply them to every possible scenario and invalidate it as soon as it dont work once. Its about finding the general odds that an event happen and even if we make mistake, the point is to be right most often than not. Also, unless the condition change, the past is often a good indication of the future (assurance company make a ton of money from this.)

3. So the interesting question is what could make a Schneider trade possible in the future while he wasn't traded in the past? (and evaluating the odds of each)

- A better timing
- A team improving his offer for Schneider
- Gillis lowering his asking price for Schneider

Well, i will start a thread eventually about this question if he is not traded tomorrow. (The Value of Schneider 2010 vs 2011 vs 2012 and speculating if Gillis took the optimal decision or not.)


First of all, while I may disagree with your position on Schneider and his value, I do appreciate that you have clearly taken the time to consider this position and similarly have taken considerable time and effort to explain why you think this. I enjoy being able to have a reasoned debate on these boards rather than just mindlessly yelling past each other. Kudos for that!


Starting with your contention that there is a >0 correlation between HF fan proposals and his actual availability. It is interesting and in general I suppose you are correct, but only in the sense that fans tend to see the scenarios where a player is being under-utilized, disgruntled, doesn't fit a team need, etc. Obviously these are the trade scenarios that get discussed the most and are also the most likely to occur. That being said, there are other obvious factors that would confound this relationship, such as having a large and active fan base (such as Vancouver, Toronto, Philadelphia, etc) as well as being a desired asset (talented, low cap hit, young), which result in a disproportionate amount of chatter relative to the number of times they are ever actually traded. How many times have players like Halak, Kadri, and Schneider all been bandied about in the last few years? Only 1 of these 3 has been traded to date. Did all the chatter indicate legit trade discussions by the GM? Or simply a case of a large fan base noticing an obvious team need/trade opportunity, then dog piling on and including it in every proposal. As it stands, I'm not sure if the correlation is all that strong tbh. And in the case of Schneider, Canuck fans certainly would love to gain an asset that plays and contributes every game rather than every 6th or 7th game right now. But I can tell you that to the best of my knowledge, Mike Gillis has never, ever hinted that he has been "looking to move" Schneider in the past 2 years.


As to your second point, I understand your point about it being a general rule and that finding exceptions to it don't disprove the rule. Like statistical models, as long as it predicts better than random chance then it is a useful if not somewhat imperfect tool to use. However the point I disagreed with was that (and I'm paraphrasing), "because Schneider hasn't found a buyer willing to meet his price in the last year or so, it indicates that either a) the price is too high, or b) the market is too soft". Yet in your 3rd point you pretty much provide the answer that I would, which is that the "market" is changing all the time. Buyers needs change, Sellers needs change, and assets which were once not available or deemed untouchable suddenly become available.

Specifically in the case of Schneider, I think all 3 factors will be in play:

a. Better timing - With Schneider coming up to RFA and thus likely to gain a sig pay raise, Vancouver can no longer afford the luxury of having a back-up of Schneider's caliber. So long as he was on his $900,000 ELC, he was valuable insurance against a Luongo injury or melt-down. That window is now closing and Gillis will be more willing to deal him now (i.e. at the draft) than in the past.

b. Improved offer - This is harder to predict since we don't actually know what teams may have been offering for Schneider. The one rumoured offer was of the Avs offering up the 11th pick and another pick (2nd rounder?) for Schneider. Pretty good value actually, except Gillis wasn't interested in picks for his insurance option. Avs then moved on to Plan B and dealt picks to Wash for Varlomov. This year there are at least 4 teams that, on the surface, have significant goaltending issues. For two of the teams - Tampa and Toronto - this may cost them a spot in the playoffs. For another - Philly - it may cost them a deep playoff run. And for the last - Columbus - it may have cost them their Franchise player (Nash) due to the extreme suckage of their team this year.

c. Gillis lowering his asking price - This also seems likely, at least in the sense that his asking price will be more based on getting a trade done this summer rather than scaring off inquiring teams. Of course, this is a tough one to judge from afar since we don't have a lot of insight into Gillis' mindset but the general consensus is that we can't keep both Lu and Cory and since only one of them has a NTC, it has to be Cory that leaves. How this translates into his asking price remains to be seen.


So, lots of typing but it still boils down to you think the return for Schneider will be meagre while I think it will be more substantial. One thing I struggle with is that I don't know what "meagre" means to you and you probably don't know what "substantial" means to me. So how about we quantify it in a hypothetical trade. Then when Schneider is eventually traded (assuming he is), we can revisit this discussion and see how close or far each of us was.

My best guess: Vancouver trades Cory Schneider and a 3rd round pick to Tampa Bay for Brett Connolly and the 1st round pick acquired from Detroit. In my books this is fair value in that Tampa gets a more proven asset (Schneider) and more urgent need while Vancouver gets the riskier player (Connolly) but one that has a high upside still and fits their team need of an under-25 offensive winger. The picks are there to offset the value disparity between the two players.

So what, in your opinion, is Schneider likely to garner in a trade?

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02-27-2012, 02:36 AM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirouxCouturier View Post
Am i The only one that thinks JVR to toronto, Schenn to vancouver, and schneider to philly makes more sense?

Personally I think there could be something there, though it could also be as simple as Scheider for JVR too. From Van's POV, a young, large winger with 30 goal upside would be an excellent return for a goalie that, no matter how great he's played for us, still sits 5 games out of every 6.

Don't know how Philly would look on this though. Obviously most fans don't seem to want to trade JVR for ANOTHER goalie (you guys go through them like we did in the late 90's/early 2000's) and given where JVR was drafted I can understand why. But fans don't make trades in real life, so I wonder if Paul Holmgren would be willing to pull the trigger on a trade like this?

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02-27-2012, 02:50 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
My best guess: Vancouver trades Cory Schneider and a 3rd round pick to Tampa Bay for Brett Connolly and the 1st round pick acquired from Detroit. In my books this is fair value in that Tampa gets a more proven asset (Schneider) and more urgent need while Vancouver gets the riskier player (Connolly) but one that has a high upside still and fits their team need of an under-25 offensive winger. The picks are there to offset the value disparity between the two players.

So what, in your opinion, is Schneider likely to garner in a trade?
You absolutely qualify in the top 10 greatest reply i got this year on hf-boards.

Just a precision... is your Connolly + 1st based on a deadline deal or next draft?

Are you asking me the value of Schneider now or around the draft?

And if we are going to play a ''the price is right game''...i could take advantage of the fact you make your offer public before mine, so all i could need to do is to say i think Schneider will bring a 7th round less than your proposed offer and it would not be fair play.

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02-27-2012, 11:36 AM
  #118
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No from this flyers fan.

Would not do JVR for Brown straight up.

Brown is redundant on this team. JVR is a potential 1st line winger to pair w/ Giroux. We do not have anyone else like that currently on the roster.
Agreed, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't the only one that thought a JVR for Brown swap was fair, if not more than fair.

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02-27-2012, 11:37 AM
  #119
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Schenn isn't enticing at all.

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02-28-2012, 12:06 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
Then when Schneider is eventually traded (assuming he is), we can revisit this discussion and see how close or far each of us was.

My best guess: Vancouver trades Cory Schneider and a 3rd round pick to Tampa Bay for Brett Connolly and the 1st round pick acquired from Detroit. In my books this is fair value in that Tampa gets a more proven asset (Schneider) and more urgent need while Vancouver gets the riskier player (Connolly) but one that has a high upside still and fits their team need of an under-25 offensive winger. The picks are there to offset the value disparity between the two players.

So what, in your opinion, is Schneider likely to garner in a trade?
Ok, since the deadline is past and you didnt reply my last post.....

I offer you a prediction i made more than one year ago. Hoping you will give me some credit for a prediction made one year and a half in advance! My opinion didnt change too much since then so i invite you to read the whole article there: http://forum.canucks.com/topic/29500...to-past-trade/

Exerpt:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Palindrom 30 January 2011
My Prediction: Unless he can play more and be more attractive to the other team (in case of a Luongo injury) Schneider wont be traded as the market for goalie is not hot, you should lose him as UFA in 2013 after he helped The cannuck being one of the best team in the league. I just think its best to keep him than getting a low return.

Statistical prediction: He could be traded in summer 2012, as the market for goaltender is not hot, I think the best Value for value return you could get for him, should be to get a younger goalie prospect (18-21yo range). As we have seen in previous trades, team are more willing to give a goalie in return. If not we can base it on Halak and Lethonen trade: a good prospect, but not an excellent one + late pick.
Then last summer i promoted the idea than at summer 2012 Vancouver could be vulnerable to an offer sheet to Schneider...
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=945419

Its hard to gauge the impact it will have, but i think it could oblige Vancouver to revisit their asking price for Schneider and accept the best bid instead of waiting for another team to accept Vancouver's asking price.

So as i said one year ago, Schneider value in summer 2012 should be around a good prospect, but not an excellent one + late pick, we can translate this as a mid first round + 3th round.
The question is: should Vancouver accept it or keep Schneider one more year until deadline or UFA?

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02-28-2012, 12:09 AM
  #121
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I need to add: my prediction is based on the expectation that Schneider would do about the same in playoff this year than last year. Of course if he win the Conn Smythe trophy....i would revisit his value (as would the 29 NHL GMs)

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02-28-2012, 12:10 AM
  #122
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Schenn isn't enticing at all.
I disagree.

He still leads all d-men in hits, and would be a perfect fit in Dallas.

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02-28-2012, 06:24 PM
  #123
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Schenn is awful. Schneider and JVR are both worth significantly more than him.

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02-28-2012, 07:34 PM
  #124
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Schenn is awful. Schneider and JVR are both worth significantly more than him.
put him on ANY other team and he will play much better .. this team is a ****ing joke

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02-28-2012, 08:44 PM
  #125
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Maybe if Vancouver actually has a chance to trade him. I could see Schneider getting a large offer sheet. Maybe from the Phoenix, Philly, New Jersey, and Calgary. Maybe a stretch with Calgary because I'm not sure they're confident they'd improve with Schneider in net immediately to sacrifice a 1st and 3rd. If Brodeur retires, he'd look mighty fine in New Jersey.

Also, Buffalo could pursue him if they move Miller.

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