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The chances of the Flyers missing the playoffs

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02-29-2012, 11:23 AM
  #1
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The chances of the Flyers missing the playoffs

I'd say the chances of the Flyers not making the playoffs are actually a lot greater than many people believe. With their current pattern of alternating one win and one loss, they would finish with 95 points. I believe that was about the same amount the 8th seed had last year? With the way the playoff race is shaping out to be, Washington, Winnipeg (who have a lot of home games left) and Toronto will all be desperate to make the 8th seed. The Flyers have not shown much desperation lately, and are perhaps too confident that they will make the playoffs. But a losing skid here or there in the last 20 games, with Winnipeg and Washington winning games and things could get pretty ugly. Other teams are clamping down defensively at the moment, and you are seeing the end result for Philly. They simply can't play that kind of hockey with their current personnel.

I think the chances they miss out are about 60% at the moment. This is simply a mediocre hockey team that was performing way above it's expectations and outscoring it's problems while other teams were not playing tight.

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02-29-2012, 11:28 AM
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Lost to San Jose 0-1, playoff odds down 0.3 to 99.4% - http://www.sportsclubstats.com/hocke...ladelphia.html

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02-29-2012, 11:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PJStock View Post
I'd say the chances of the Flyers not making the playoffs are actually a lot greater than many people believe. With their current pattern of alternating one win and one loss, they would finish with 95 points. I believe that was about the same amount the 8th seed had last year? With the way the playoff race is shaping out to be, Washington, Winnipeg (who have a lot of home games left) and Toronto will all be desperate to make the 8th seed. The Flyers have not shown much desperation lately, and are perhaps too confident that they will make the playoffs. But a losing skid here or there in the last 20 games, with Winnipeg and Washington winning games and things could get pretty ugly. Other teams are clamping down defensively at the moment, and you are seeing the end result for Philly. They simply can't play that kind of hockey with their current personnel.

I think the chances they miss out are about 60% at the moment. This is simply a mediocre hockey team that was performing way above it's expectations and outscoring it's problems while other teams were not playing tight.
This is all just wrong, the other teams you have mentioned in the post are all playing worse then we are at the moment. Toronto is 1-8-1 in their last ten. Washington has the same record as us in that span but is 6 points behind us with one more game played. Okay Winnipeg is the only team playing okay hockey. They have 68 points with three more games played then us. We most likely wont miss the playoffs. Im going to say we have about a 99% chance right now to make the playoffs. (Proof)

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

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02-29-2012, 11:31 AM
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They really need to aim for the 6th seed I believe, if they want to win at least one playoff round. Maybe that was Lavvy's tactic all along, to drop them into 6th?

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02-29-2012, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by zbryne View Post
Lost to San Jose 0-1, playoff odds down 0.3 to 99.4% - http://www.sportsclubstats.com/hocke...ladelphia.html
Those stats are fine in the "now" sense, but if 9+ teams start getting hot, you can check back daily and see the % drop as we get closer to the playoffs. That being said, teams in 9th place+ are pretty bad and are playing as average as the Flyers are.

In the end I wouldnt be surprised if we get 7th or 8th place.

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02-29-2012, 11:35 AM
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at this point, the way this team is unraveling, even if they manage the 8 th seed. whats the point..

we will be swept in 4 by the Rags..

if your holding ur breath wiating for the Flyers to "turn it on" vs a team we got embaressed by all season, you might aswell buy a lotto tix aswell. ur odds of being right are about the same..

i strongly suspect this teams chance at a PO berth will end up residing with other teams outcomes.. which suks.. waiting for scores to come in every night,

/UGH

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02-29-2012, 11:36 AM
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They are 7 points up on 9th (winnipeg) with 3 games in hand, 10 points up on 10th with 1 game in hand, and 11 points up on 11th with 1 game in hand.....

For any of those teams to catch the Flyers with less then 20 games remaining for them, and the Flyers going .500, they will need to have a winninger percentage higher then .750 in their final 20.

Lets say Philly finishes with 95 like you said.

- Winnipeg needs to go 14-3 over the stretch to finish with 95 points = Good Luck (Might make the play offs, but not at the expense of Philly)

- Toronto needs to go 15-4, while having gone 1-8-1 in their last 10 = Not gunna happen

- Tampa needs to go 16-3 to reach 95 points.... = Not gunna happen

In otherwords, while it is possible, it is about 95% not gunna happen.

Did you look at the numbers when throwing this out there, or reactionary based on poor play or late?

Also, lol at 60% chance of missing, no offense.

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02-29-2012, 11:36 AM
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I heard lastnight that we have 17 games in the month of march and no more games against the east. We play washington and pitt and nj a boatload down the stretch plus several afternoon games. We havent won back to back games since january and our goaltending is foolish. Washington and Tampa will make the playoffs, so I would agree we are in tough. Simply put Giroux,Timmonen and Brys have to be our best players and they simply are not, giroux is a giveaway machine, timmonen is tired slow and hurt and brys is the amnesty clause poster boy. I would rather miss the playoffs than get hammered by boston or nyr in the first round.

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02-29-2012, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by facts View Post
I heard lastnight that we have 17 games in the month of march and no more games against the east. We play washington and pitt and nj a boatload down the stretch plus several afternoon games. We havent won back to back games since january and our goaltending is foolish. Washington and Tampa will make the playoffs, so I would agree we are in tough. Simply put Giroux,Timmonen and Brys have to be our best players and they simply are not, giroux is a giveaway machine, timmonen is tired slow and hurt and brys is the amnesty clause poster boy. I would rather miss the playoffs than get hammered by boston or nyr in the first round.
How do you figure Tampa to make the playoffs baring a miracle?

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02-29-2012, 11:49 AM
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20 games left

1 vs Detroit (class of their own)
2 against teams on the playoff bubble (TOR)
12 against current playoff teams: WSH (2), FLA (2), NJD (2), BOS (1), PIT (3), OTT (1), NYR (1)
5 against teams out of playoff hunt (realistically) NYI (2), MTL, TB, BUF

None of those games can be taken for granted. The three against Pittsburgh have the potential to hurt us if we have an outing like we did the last time against them.

I would expect us to finish in that 6-7 range. Maybe lower, but I think that's about right. When all's said and done, we probably won't be able to make up much ground.

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02-29-2012, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by PJStock View Post
I'd say the chances of the Flyers not making the playoffs are actually a lot greater than many people believe. With their current pattern of alternating one win and one loss, they would finish with 95 points. I believe that was about the same amount the 8th seed had last year? With the way the playoff race is shaping out to be, Washington, Winnipeg (who have a lot of home games left) and Toronto will all be desperate to make the 8th seed. The Flyers have not shown much desperation lately, and are perhaps too confident that they will make the playoffs. But a losing skid here or there in the last 20 games, with Winnipeg and Washington winning games and things could get pretty ugly. Other teams are clamping down defensively at the moment, and you are seeing the end result for Philly. They simply can't play that kind of hockey with their current personnel.

I think the chances they miss out are about 60% at the moment. This is simply a mediocre hockey team that was performing way above it's expectations and outscoring it's problems while other teams were not playing tight.
http://playoffstatus.com/nhl/easternstandings.html

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02-29-2012, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by PJStock View Post
I'd say the chances of the Flyers not making the playoffs are actually a lot greater than many people believe. With their current pattern of alternating one win and one loss, they would finish with 95 points. I believe that was about the same amount the 8th seed had last year? With the way the playoff race is shaping out to be, Washington, Winnipeg (who have a lot of home games left) and Toronto will all be desperate to make the 8th seed. The Flyers have not shown much desperation lately, and are perhaps too confident that they will make the playoffs. But a losing skid here or there in the last 20 games, with Winnipeg and Washington winning games and things could get pretty ugly. Other teams are clamping down defensively at the moment, and you are seeing the end result for Philly. They simply can't play that kind of hockey with their current personnel.

I think the chances they miss out are about 60% at the moment. This is simply a mediocre hockey team that was performing way above it's expectations and outscoring it's problems while other teams were not playing tight.
60% is probably low for the probability of their losing round 1 though.

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02-29-2012, 12:10 PM
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02-29-2012, 12:35 PM
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Chance of flyers not making the playoffs is very slim but I do agree if they continue to play like this it gets close. My main concern is that they won't make it out of the first round of the playoffs

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02-29-2012, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by PJStock View Post
I'd say the chances of the Flyers not making the playoffs are actually a lot greater than many people believe. With their current pattern of alternating one win and one loss, they would finish with 95 points. I believe that was about the same amount the 8th seed had last year? With the way the playoff race is shaping out to be, Washington, Winnipeg (who have a lot of home games left) and Toronto will all be desperate to make the 8th seed. The Flyers have not shown much desperation lately, and are perhaps too confident that they will make the playoffs. But a losing skid here or there in the last 20 games, with Winnipeg and Washington winning games and things could get pretty ugly. Other teams are clamping down defensively at the moment, and you are seeing the end result for Philly. They simply can't play that kind of hockey with their current personnel.

I think the chances they miss out are about 60% at the moment. This is simply a mediocre hockey team that was performing way above it's expectations and outscoring it's problems while other teams were not playing tight.
I would say 100% chance we make the playoffs unless somehow we lose every game the rest of the year...

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02-29-2012, 12:59 PM
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100% of the time, it works every time.

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02-29-2012, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ORYX View Post
They are 7 points up on 9th (winnipeg) with 3 games in hand, 10 points up on 10th with 1 game in hand, and 11 points up on 11th with 1 game in hand.....

For any of those teams to catch the Flyers with less then 20 games remaining for them, and the Flyers going .500, they will need to have a winninger percentage higher then .750 in their final 20.

Lets say Philly finishes with 95 like you said.

- Winnipeg needs to go 14-3 over the stretch to finish with 95 points = Good Luck (Might make the play offs, but not at the expense of Philly)

- Toronto needs to go 15-4, while having gone 1-8-1 in their last 10 = Not gunna happen

- Tampa needs to go 16-3 to reach 95 points.... = Not gunna happen

In otherwords, while it is possible, it is about 95% not gunna happen.

Did you look at the numbers when throwing this out there, or reactionary based on poor play or late?

Also, lol at 60% chance of missing, no offense.
That being the key, of course. They were below .500 in the month of February. What makes us so sure they can improve to .500? I think a few losing streaks here and there is a definite possibility. If that occurs, the chances of Winnipeg/Washington/Toronto catching us are not that low. Only two of the three would have to play around .625 hockey the rest of the way.

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02-29-2012, 01:40 PM
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99% chance the Flyers make it to the playoffs.

15% chance the Flyers make it into the Conference Semi-Finals.

5% chance the Flyers make it into the Conference Finals.

1% chance the Flyers make it into the Stanley Cup finals.

.01% chance the Flyers win the Stanley Cup.

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02-29-2012, 02:03 PM
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Originally Posted by flyers1975fan View Post
99% chance the Flyers make it to the playoffs.

15% chance the Flyers make it into the Conference Semi-Finals.

5% chance the Flyers make it into the Conference Finals.

1% chance the Flyers make it into the Stanley Cup finals.

.01% chance the Flyers win the Stanley Cup.
http://www.predictwise.com/sports/201112NHLStanleyCup

% Cup for the Flyers is relatively high on this site.

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02-29-2012, 02:22 PM
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How do you figure Tampa to make the playoffs baring a miracle?
Sorry,I do agree Tampa is done, I meant to say Washington and or FLA will lock down 3rd with Winnipeg grabbing 8th.

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02-29-2012, 02:22 PM
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Originally Posted by PJStock View Post
That being the key, of course. They were below .500 in the month of February. What makes us so sure they can improve to .500? I think a few losing streaks here and there is a definite possibility. If that occurs, the chances of Winnipeg/Washington/Toronto catching us are not that low. Only two of the three would have to play around .625 hockey the rest of the way.
I would think the > 0.600 winning percentage for the entire season trumps their poorest sample set.

Doom & gloom: the ever popular attitude of the Philadelphia fan base.

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02-29-2012, 05:04 PM
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Feel free to bump this thread when the Flyers miss the playoffs

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02-29-2012, 05:12 PM
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Feel free to bump this thread when the Flyers miss the playoffs
Ok, since you've given up on the season, talk to you later....

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02-29-2012, 05:20 PM
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I would think the > 0.600 winning percentage for the entire season trumps their poorest sample set.

Doom & gloom: the ever popular attitude of the Philadelphia fan base.
No, Doom & Gloom: the ever unpopular attitude of PJStock

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02-29-2012, 05:27 PM
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The current #8 team is only on pace for 90 points.

EDIT: In other words by that pace we could go say, 6-11-3 and make the playoffs.

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