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2012-2013 Sharks Roster analysis

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Old
02-29-2012, 01:33 PM
  #26
SJeasy
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Originally Posted by Lazyking View Post
Personally, I would try to trade Havlat. He's injury prone and that worries me. Honestly, everyone that's not gonna be on this team next year, is replaceable.
DW has never asked a player with an NTC or NMC to waive it. The Sharks have not bought out a player either (as some are thinking with Zeus).

Until you see a player with a clause getting severely limited minutes, don't expect a player to go to DW and volunteer to waive his clause.

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02-29-2012, 01:43 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
For others,
If Winnik wants $2.5mil as reported, no sale. No more than $1.5mil. He doesn't put up enough points.

I figure someone will pay Moore in the neighborhood of $2.2mil if he has a reasonable playoffs (>0.3 pts/game). I think that $2.2mil is definitely worth it for Moore.
Moore has averaged 6 more points per 82 games than Winnik over their respective careers even though Winnik's faced mostly tougher competition (more or less the same zonestarts). Why the $700k/yr difference in value?

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02-29-2012, 01:46 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Who would you comp Winnik to? Only player I can think of, off the top of my head, is Talbot but I haven't researched it yet.
Good choice on Talbot. I give Talbot the edge on scoring pop and playoff performance. Some others, Grier on his final contract, Richardson (LA) and Park are a couple of others. Richardson is a less than.

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02-29-2012, 01:49 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Good choice on Talbot. I give Talbot the edge on scoring pop and playoff performance. Some others, Grier on his final contract, Richardson (LA) and Park are a couple of others. Richardson is a less than.
Thanks. I'll stick with my $1.8 AAV / 3-4 yrs.

If reports are true the Avs offered $1.2 AAV and he wanted $2.5m AAV, I can see him settling in between. The Avs deal is a lowball so he went high on his ask.

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02-29-2012, 01:50 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
DW has never asked a player with an NTC or NMC to waive it. The Sharks have not bought out a player either (as some are thinking with Zeus).

Until you see a player with a clause getting severely limited minutes, don't expect a player to go to DW and volunteer to waive his clause.
I'm wondering if the Sharks will be limiting his minutes even further once everyone is healthy:

Marleau - Thornton - Pavelski
Close - Couture - Havlat
Winnik - Moore - Galiardi
Winchester - Desjardins - Wingels
Handzus...

Who do you swap out really? I could see him getting reduced minutes and more healthy scratch time.

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02-29-2012, 01:51 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Moore has averaged 6 more points per 82 games than Winnik over their respective careers even though Winnik's faced mostly tougher competition (more or less the same zonestarts). Why the $700k/yr difference in value?
Age and the fact that his peak years are higher. Age by itself will get a higher contract up until about age 34. It isn't purely stats based and they take peak years as indicative of potential. Obviously, it has to be in the right situation for potential to be realized. Centers get a small bump over wingers as well. Moore is right in Malhotra and Zeus territory, less defense but more offense.

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02-29-2012, 01:52 PM
  #32
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I mean...if Wilson can draw up comps for Winnik based on point totals alone and his agent doesn't object to that, it would be ideal because he brings so much more than goals and assists or whatever.

But based on the arbitration history and contract demands, I have a feeling Winnik's agent is aware of the underlying numbers his client has posted and probably knows that so is DW.

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02-29-2012, 01:52 PM
  #33
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OK, what is AAV?

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02-29-2012, 01:53 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I'm wondering if the Sharks will be limiting his minutes even further once everyone is healthy:

Marleau - Thornton - Pavelski
Close - Couture - Havlat
Winnik - Moore - Galiardi
Winchester - Desjardins - Wingels
Handzus...

Who do you swap out really? I could see him getting reduced minutes and more healthy scratch time.
If there's an amnesty buyout in the new CBA, I could see DW doing it ONLY if we need cap space. Easy, part of the reason is we haven't needed to do it before for cap reasons. Niity or McLaren were probably the closest but we didn't need the space so it was moot.

If Handzus stays then, he'll spot Moore and Desi when they need breaks. I don't see a scenario where he'd be a regular player if we re-sign Moore.

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02-29-2012, 01:53 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Age and the fact that his peak years are higher. Age by itself will get a higher contract up until about age 34. It isn't purely stats based and they take peak years as indicative of potential. Obviously, it has to be in the right situation for potential to be realized. Centers get a small bump over wingers as well. Moore is right in Malhotra and Zeus territory, less defense but more offense.
I didn't consider center versus winger, that's a very good point. Still, I wouldn't have much of a problem paying both guys ~$2.2mil/yr, perhaps a bit higher if they can dump Handzus.

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02-29-2012, 01:55 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
I mean...if Wilson can draw up comps for Winnik based on point totals alone and his agent doesn't object to that, it would be ideal because he brings so much more than goals and assists or whatever.

But based on the arbitration history and contract demands, I have a feeling Winnik's agent is aware of the underlying numbers his client has posted and probably knows that so is DW.
It's the whole ball of wax and you have to go out and find similar players with similar numbers. Yes, the agents absolutely know underlying stats, but they also know comparable players. Show me a player that is comparable across the board that makes $2.5mil.

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02-29-2012, 01:55 PM
  #37
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mitchell hopefully is resigned. 750k or less. cheap 4th line grit. im already in love with winnik-moore-galliardi as our 3rd line. that leaves a winchester for line 4.

id see if i could get a 2nd for wingels at the draft, if not keep him but i think thats solid deal.

ferriero and white are gone. vandy hopefully comes back, and stuart will be 3m at least.

trade murray at the draft for prospects, bring petrecki up.

stuart-boyle
vlasic-burns
petrecki-demers
vandy-braun

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Old
02-29-2012, 01:55 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
OK, what is AAV?
average annual value (of contract) - aka, cap hit.

less characters to type

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02-29-2012, 01:57 PM
  #39
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I think the only significant transaction they commit to is the signing of Brad Stuart.

They probably will try and resign Moore and Winnyck, but I don't know how that will play out...

Maybe, just maybe they find Clowe a new home and acquire his replacement.

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02-29-2012, 01:58 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
average annual value (of contract) - aka, cap hit.

less characters to type
Thanks. That's what I figured, but all I found on google was related to fantasy football. CH is even shorter

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02-29-2012, 02:00 PM
  #41
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Winchester is likely gone.

He has played well, but SJ has too much depth. It wouldn't be fair to kick Wingels or Desjardins out of the lineup.

The only way SJ could sign Moore, Winnik, AND Stuart is if Handzsus is dropped. In any case, LA and Anaheim should have more dollars to attract Stuart with. He may take a couple hundred thousand off to play in SJ, but anymore and it doesn't balance out.

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02-29-2012, 02:00 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by CloweForbidzYou View Post
mitchell hopefully is resigned. 750k or less. cheap 4th line grit. im already in love with winnik-moore-galliardi as our 3rd line. that leaves a winchester for line 4.

id see if i could get a 2nd for wingels at the draft, if not keep him but i think thats solid deal.

ferriero and white are gone. vandy hopefully comes back, and stuart will be 3m at least.

trade murray at the draft for prospects, bring petrecki up.

stuart-boyle
vlasic-burns
petrecki-demers
vandy-braun
I don't think they will go into training camp or even pre-season with Petrecki already penned in as a starter. He will have to earn his way up and then earn his stay. With that in mind Wilson will make sure he has another card in his hand if your are insisting he will trade murray. I think he will keep Murray

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02-29-2012, 02:02 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Winchester is likely gone.

He has played well, but SJ has too much depth. It wouldn't be fair to kick Wingels or Desjardins out of the lineup.

The only way SJ could sign Moore, Winnik, AND Stuart is if Handzsus is dropped. In any case, LA and Anaheim should have more dollars to attract Stuart with. He may take a couple hundred thousand off to play in SJ, but anymore and it doesn't balance out.
Just depends on the person. I know, being a parent, there really isn't any amount of money that would be worth more to me than getting to come home most night to my wife and kids.

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02-29-2012, 02:02 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
I didn't consider center versus winger, that's a very good point. Still, I wouldn't have much of a problem paying both guys ~$2.2mil/yr, perhaps a bit higher if they can dump Handzus.
For the 1st time in years, we have the makings of a really strong 3rd line. If all 3 (Gally, Winnik and Moore) just stay the course and perform like they have, DW has to salivate over having them reunited next year. The Sharks have suffered for several seasons now with the turnover and inconsistency in the 3rd line. This has to be DW's top priority this offseason, IMO.

He's already re-signed Couture and Burns. What else does he have to do??

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloweForbidzYou View Post
mitchell hopefully is resigned. 750k or less. cheap 4th line grit. im already in love with winnik-moore-galliardi as our 3rd line. that leaves a winchester for line 4.

id see if i could get a 2nd for wingels at the draft, if not keep him but i think thats solid deal.
Eew. Mitchell's pretty much Goc'ed out. Wingels is just starting and has a higher ceiling. Why trade that?

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02-29-2012, 02:04 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
For the 1st time in years, we have the makings of a really strong 3rd line. If all 3 (Gally, Winnik and Moore) just stay the course and perform like they have, DW has to salivate over having them reunited next year. The Sharks have suffered for several seasons now with the turnover and inconsistency in the 3rd line. This has to be DW's top priority this offseason, IMO.

He's already re-signed Couture and Burns. What else does he have to do??



Eew. Mitchell's pretty much Goc'ed out. Wingels is just starting and has a higher ceiling. Why trade that?
Wingels is already better than Mitchell imo. Not that that is really a compliment.

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02-29-2012, 02:04 PM
  #46
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If Mitchell is on this team next year, we weren't able to sign the guys we want IMHO.

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02-29-2012, 02:05 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Winchester is likely gone.

He has played well, but SJ has too much depth. It wouldn't be fair to kick Wingels or Desjardins out of the lineup.

The only way SJ could sign Moore, Winnik, AND Stuart is if Handzsus is dropped. In any case, LA and Anaheim should have more dollars to attract Stuart with. He may take a couple hundred thousand off to play in SJ, but anymore and it doesn't balance out.
Until the cap and CBA are sorted out, you can't really say with any certainty that we couldn't sign Stuart.

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02-29-2012, 02:07 PM
  #48
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Just depends on the person. I know, being a parent, there really isn't any amount of money that would be worth more to me than getting to come home most night to my wife and kids.
And it's fair to assume that since Stuart wants to come back to California, he clearly values family. Go to S. California is closer but still doesn't mean he's home. It's DW's choice, really, is how I see it.

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02-29-2012, 02:08 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Winchester is likely gone.

He has played well, but SJ has too much depth. It wouldn't be fair to kick Wingels or Desjardins out of the lineup.

The only way SJ could sign Moore, Winnik, AND Stuart is if Handzsus is dropped. In any case, LA and Anaheim should have more dollars to attract Stuart with. He may take a couple hundred thousand off to play in SJ, but anymore and it doesn't balance out.
Not arguing that Winchester might be gone but he, Wingels and Desi couldn't possibly be more different hockey players if they tried.

I'll be shocked if Wingels isn't a regular in the top 9 next season & Winchester won't really ever be much more than a good 4th liner.

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Old
02-29-2012, 02:08 PM
  #50
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Mitchell has to go. He doesn't bring anything to the table that the other guys in our bottom 6 can't do better. He's not even the best "fast" guy on the team anymore.

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