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2012-2013 Sharks Roster analysis

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Old
02-29-2012, 03:29 PM
  #76
stalockrox
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Wingels isn't going anywhere. As best I can tell he would be waiver exempt next year even if he played every game for the rest of the year and played in 28 Playoff games.

On top of that, DW is obviously high on this kid.
I agree. I really like his game and have for a while.

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02-29-2012, 03:31 PM
  #77
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I guess you're keeping Wingels
they said the same thing about paul gaustad getting a 1st. obviously TD and draft day are different, but other teams may see top 6 potential.

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02-29-2012, 03:32 PM
  #78
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they said the same thing about paul gaustad getting a 1st. obviously TD and draft day are different, but other teams may see top 6 potential.
Why trade a legitimate NHL player in Wingels for a lottery ticket?

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02-29-2012, 03:41 PM
  #79
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hes pretty much living up to his 7.5C rating from HF too .

in all seriousness though, just from watching he just has that last step into goalscoring to be a legit top 6. as of right now he is top 6 depth, and he does just fine at it.

i think people are mistaken when they say we have no depth in the top 6.

@Les: I know youve mentioned puck possession stats etc about players. how does wingels stack up? i know his top 6 time is a limited sample size though.

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02-29-2012, 03:44 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
hes pretty much living up to his 7.5C rating from HF too .

in all seriousness though, just from watching he just has that last step into goalscoring to be a legit top 6. as of right now he is top 6 depth, and he does just fine at it.

i think people are mistaken when they say we have no depth in the top 6.

@Les: I know youve mentioned puck possession stats etc about players. how does wingels stack up? i know his top 6 time is a limited sample size though.
Wingels has come out on the positive side of both fenwick and corsi way more often than not since moving into the top 6.

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02-29-2012, 03:48 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
Wingels has come out on the positive side of both fenwick and corsi way more often than not since moving into the top 6.
sweet good to know!

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02-29-2012, 03:56 PM
  #82
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Wingels' possession numbers are incredible - his Corsi/60 is 3rd on the team after Thornton and Pavelski. Of course a huge part of that is he's played primarily with those players but from watching him he's clearly more than just along for the ride.

I'm always wary of score effects skewing possession stats so, even though it isn't a great idea to break down Wingels' performance into an even smaller sample size since he's only played 18 games, his close-score Fenwick ratio is 0.557 (i.e., 55.7% of all shots and missed shots when he's been on the ice while the score is either tied in the 3rd period or within a goal in the 1st or 2nd have been generated by the Sharks) which is 2nd among forwards and his close-score Corsi ratio is 0.528, good for 5th.

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02-29-2012, 03:59 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Wingels' possession numbers are incredible - his Corsi/60 is 3rd on the team after Thornton and Pavelski. Of course a huge part of that is he's played primarily with those players but from watching him he's clearly more than just along for the ride.

I'm always wary of score effects skewing possession stats so, even though it isn't a great idea to break down Wingels' performance into an even smaller sample size since he's only played 18 games, his close-score Fenwick ratio is 0.557 (i.e., 55.7% of all shots and missed shots when he's been on the ice while the score is either tied in the 3rd period or within a goal in the 1st or 2nd have been generated by the Sharks) which is 2nd among forwards and his close-score Corsi ratio is 0.528, good for 5th.
i guess the question is, and as you pointed out in regards to jamie mcginn and his SH%. is it something that will regress? is he getting lucky?

Just watching him play brings your numbers here to life, though. cool stuff.

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02-29-2012, 04:08 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
i guess the question is, and as you pointed out in regards to jamie mcginn and his SH%. is it something that will regress? is he getting lucky?

Just watching him play brings your numbers here to life, though. cool stuff.
In terms of scoring, he's actually been ridiculously, unsustainably unlucky. His on-ice SH% is just 4.72% - no one is that "bad" at making their shots. The pucks will go in for him (and the players he's on the ice with) eventually as long as he sustains these underlying numbers or anything close to them. Whether or not he'll be able to is anyone's guess but from a subjective standpoint I've definitely seen things from him that indicate he will.

He's also had a really poor 0.912 SV% behind him at even strength which makes sense since he's really only gotten serious minutes since the goaltending implosion. That's why he's minus-2 on the year. But, yeah, anything can happen in 18 games - eventually the percentages will stabilize. For example, if Wingels had received just a league-average on-ice SH% (8%) so far, he'd have been on the ice for 10 Sharks even strength goals instead of 6. Fair assumption to make IMO that he would have picked up points on a couple of those.

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02-29-2012, 04:21 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
hes pretty much living up to his 7.5C rating from HF too .*

in all seriousness though, just from watching he just has that last step into goalscoring to be a legit top 6. *as of right now he is top 6 depth, and he does just fine at it.*
The 7.5C was just HF changing it at the last minute. For most of the time we've had him, Wingels was a 6.5C and 7.0D. I knew he was better than that. I've followed him for a bit and he was my favorite prospect for a while (pre-coyle and now post-coyle era). He should be a solid 3rd liner. I didn't think he'd make it into the top-6 like he has, but I guess he's the tweener we've been looking for.

Oh, and this too:

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Most importantly, he's American. America, **** yeah!

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02-29-2012, 04:28 PM
  #86
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I have been hugely impressed by Wingels, as everyone's saying. He's the kind of guy we need to keep in our system for injury-purposes.

When fully healthy, he doesn't look to have a spot on this roster, but honestly, with Havlat being under contract for 3 more years after this () you can bet that we won't be fully healthy that often. He's done the best of any temporary top-6er since Havlat went down (of Ferriero, Desjardins, Winchester, etc), and he's shown that he could take his demotion early in the year in stride, go down and simply play and improve, and then come back and show those improvements on the ice.

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02-29-2012, 06:30 PM
  #87
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Wasn't Havlat healthy for three years straight before this year?

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02-29-2012, 06:36 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
Wasn't Havlat healthy for three years straight before this year?
The last three seasons he played in 81, 73, and 78 games...so I guess the answer is "mostly".

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02-29-2012, 06:36 PM
  #89
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Think we're undervaluing Galiardi a bit. I could see him getting a similar contract to what Mitchell got after his injury, ~1.3 m.

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02-29-2012, 06:48 PM
  #90
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Think we're undervaluing Galiardi a bit. I could see him getting a similar contract to what Mitchell got after his injury, ~1.3 m.
Was Mitchell RFA when he signed that?

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02-29-2012, 06:51 PM
  #91
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Was Mitchell RFA when he signed that?
Yes.

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02-29-2012, 08:24 PM
  #92
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Anyone think we will add anything big this offseason or just a depth defenseman and stuff like that

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02-29-2012, 08:26 PM
  #93
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I have been very impressed by Wingels I hope DW doesn't trade him he is a solid 3rd/4th liner with top 6 potential... Only thing I dont like is his size

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02-29-2012, 08:28 PM
  #94
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Anyone think we will add anything big this offseason or just a depth defenseman and stuff like that
DW was obviously interested in Nash at the deadline. Anything less than a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and I could see Rick Nash in teal by draft day.

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02-29-2012, 09:10 PM
  #95
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I could see Stuart coming into SJ. Of course that's if DW wants him and Stuart is willing to meet DW's price.

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02-29-2012, 11:12 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
DW was obviously interested in Nash at the deadline. Anything less than a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and I could see Rick Nash in teal by draft day.
I hope not.... don't want any part of Nash and his contract. I'd seriously rather overpay for Winnik and Moore and keep rolling into next season with our assets and still have Clowe.

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02-29-2012, 11:20 PM
  #97
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DW was obviously interested in Nash at the deadline. Anything less than a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and I could see Rick Nash in teal by draft day.
I'm sure he will be open to offers....

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02-29-2012, 11:44 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
DW was obviously interested in Nash at the deadline. Anything less than a Stanley Cup Finals appearance and I could see Rick Nash in teal by draft day.
As it has come out from the Rags, I would be surprised if DW would meet that price. It is way overboard. Not in the ballpark of what he paid for Boyle or JT. Nash is not even on the level of the aforementioned.

With the careers of Boyle, JT and Marleau winding down, DW absolutely needs depth over top end talent at this point. He needs to go for top end in the draft for when JT and Marleau are further in decline. Going for Nash is going for a very painful rebuild.

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03-01-2012, 01:26 AM
  #99
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As it has come out from the Rags, I would be surprised if DW would meet that price. It is way overboard. Not in the ballpark of what he paid for Boyle or JT. Nash is not even on the level of the aforementioned.

With the careers of Boyle, JT and Marleau winding down, DW absolutely needs depth over top end talent at this point. He needs to go for top end in the draft for when JT and Marleau are further in decline. Going for Nash is going for a very painful rebuild.
I think that's what he's in the middle of doing, and why there's no way he's shipping off Couture for Nash. He's been more conservative in shipping high picks out recently as well.

If Couture hadn't arrived as a potential franchise center, I think this year might have been the last big playoff attempt for the team before beginning to sell off players for prospects & picks. Long story short, Couture changed the direction of franchise in both the long and short term; instead of having to blow up the team and do a full rebuild, they're moving into a gradual transition period starting next year. The Sharks may not be a premier contender for the next 2-3 years, but they'll continue to get into the postseason and have a shot.

The team is pretty set on defense (and goaltending) for the forseeable future, between the younger players on the team (Burns, Demers, Braun, Vlasic) and top prospects (Doherty, Irwin, Petrecki, Abelthauser). Filling in a depth hole here or there is always possible via FA.

The forwards are the weak point, but DW is banking on Thornton & Marleau being in teal for the long haul even if they begin to decline. Even into their late 30s I think they'll still be able to put up 40-50 points a year, which is fine for 2nd & 3rd line production. Those are two spots you won't really need to fill.

The org seems to be capable of pumping out plenty of bottom six forwards, and those are not too hard to get through free agency if need be either. Biggest issue moving forward would be finding a pair of great wingers to play on either side of Couture since Clowe isn't going to last there forever. Maybe Wingels, Galiardi, Nieto, or Hamilton could end up being one of those guys, but this is a big question mark. The good news here is that they don't really need to rush to find a solution.

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03-01-2012, 01:49 AM
  #100
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Originally Posted by The McMafia View Post
I think that's what he's in the middle of doing, and why there's no way he's shipping off Couture for Nash. He's been more conservative in shipping high picks out recently as well.

If Couture hadn't arrived as a potential franchise center, I think this year might have been the last big playoff attempt for the team before beginning to sell off players for prospects & picks. Long story short, Couture changed the direction of franchise in both the long and short term; instead of having to blow up the team and do a full rebuild, they're moving into a gradual transition period starting next year. The Sharks may not be a premier contender for the next 2-3 years, but they'll continue to get into the postseason and have a shot.

The team is pretty set on defense (and goaltending) for the forseeable future, between the younger players on the team (Burns, Demers, Braun, Vlasic) and top prospects (Doherty, Irwin, Petrecki, Abelthauser). Filling in a depth hole here or there is always possible via FA.

The forwards are the weak point, but DW is banking on Thornton & Marleau being in teal for the long haul even if they begin to decline. Even into their late 30s I think they'll still be able to put up 40-50 points a year, which is fine for 2nd & 3rd line production. Those are two spots you won't really need to fill.

The org seems to be capable of pumping out plenty of bottom six forwards, and those are not too hard to get through free agency if need be either. Biggest issue moving forward would be finding a pair of great wingers to play on either side of Couture since Clowe isn't going to last there forever. Maybe Wingels, Galiardi, Nieto, or Hamilton could end up being one of those guys, but this is a big question mark. The good news here is that they don't really need to rush to find a solution.
They need to find big, fast wingers to supplement Couture/Pavs if that is the one-two combo of the future. He can't fiddle around going big without speed if those two are the centers. They need a couple of younger versions of Michalek/Hossa or better.

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