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Was Turning Down 4 1st Round Picks Wrong?

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Old
02-29-2012, 01:07 PM
  #76
Earth Rocker
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Prospects are better than picks.

Having said that,

I would've took a 1st for Schenn, good hitter and shot blocker but he does not have the tools for much else.

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02-29-2012, 01:11 PM
  #77
Schennanigans
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The best asset management for Schenn was probably trading him for JVR than a 1st. If we didn't trade him for JVR than we weren't going to trade him for a 1st.

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02-29-2012, 01:16 PM
  #78
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I would of been pissed if we traded those four for 1st rounders, except maybe Grabovski who might walk on July 1st. Other than them keep the proven individuals, instead of taking draft picks and hoping the prospects turn out to be as good as them.

I think I'm the lone wolf when I say I want MacArthur on this team for a long team, he always looks the most lethal on that 2nd line. Grabovski can skate around and create space, but Mac is the guy who is always battling along the boards, and Mac's slapper is very underrated.

Kulemin is a player that I feel should also be with this franchise for a long time. We can see if he gets his offensive game back for next year, and if not I think he is a perfect player to have on your 3rd line. He's doing everything right this year, it just seems like he can't catch a break.

Schenn is one of those players that I think if we trade him he's going to come back and bite us in the ass, I think he would flourish under a more defensive oriented system, and also think he is one of those players that you straight out need for the playoffs. Imagine if your a star player and you have to play against Schenn for 7 straight games, his hits are humongous big, he will wear and tear star players down for us. Only problem he has is his odd gaffs like last night. Also his skating is pretty bad, but that can be fixed.

All in all I'm ****ing glad Brian Burke is our GM, and not any of you who would be selling every player we have for a draft pick just to hope that the draft pick turns out as good as the respective individual.

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02-29-2012, 01:37 PM
  #79
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Let's say Burke had those 4 1st round picks along with the Leafs own 1st round pick that would have given him a total 5. So who knows what deals he could possibly have made to either move up or trade those picks for players from other teams or use them to get Rick Nash.

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02-29-2012, 01:46 PM
  #80
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we shouldn't be trading Kulie, Grabo, Schenn for first round picks we could of got more for those guys, however I would have dealt Mac. tho imo since we didn't trade any of them I believe Burke doesn't think the young guys on the marlies are ready for NHL duty because it would have made a guy like Mac expendable and a 1st would be a good return for him. last year Burke traded Beauch because he thought Aulie was ready, so imo if he thought a forward this year was ready for full time NHL duty he would have dealt one of those guys.

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02-29-2012, 01:56 PM
  #81
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I would have traded Mac for a 1st and flip that 1st and a 4th to Dallas for Steve Ott -- what a difference maker Ott would have been to the grittiness of this team.

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02-29-2012, 02:03 PM
  #82
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Wait, it gets even better!!

We could have traded those key guys from our roster for specific 1st round picks. Then traded down those picks to get even more picks!

The 1st overall pick is worth approximately the value of the 2nd overall + the 3rd overall, meaning that you could trade down to get those two, assuming the trading partner had both.

So imagine this scenario:

Trade Schenn for the 10th overall (let's just speculate here)
Trade Kulemin for the 24th overall
Trade MacArthur for the 20th overall
Trade Grabovski for the 27th overall + 57th overall (let's say we asked for a conditional pick based on the team hitting the conference finals)

So then we trade the 10th for the 15th+45th; we trade the 15th for the 17th+77th; we trade the 45th, 57th and 77th for the 28th;

Then the Leafs draft 17th, 20th, 24th, 27th and 28th!!! That's a whole extra 1st round pick!!! Which according to the OP's guesstimistics (guesstimated statistics) means a 75% chance of getting a All-Star Caliber player!!

Which we all know means Mike Komisarek.

So we could then get 5 Komisarek type players! Wowzaa!!!11!1!

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Old
02-29-2012, 02:10 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 30Rinks View Post
As we all know, 4 1st round picks were offerred to Burke at the deadline for...

Schenn
Kulemin
MacArthur
Grabovski

Each of these players are NHL regulars - but none of them are NHL Allstars (past) or likely in the future (with Grabo being the closest)

Taking a look at the numbers, what does the average 1st round pick produce?

Over the past 10 years...

2001:
5 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

2002:
5 NHL All Stars
21 NHL Regulars

2003:
14 NHL All Stars
25 NHL Regulars

2004:
3 NHL All Stars
16 NHL Regulars

2005:
4 NHL All Stars
18 NHL Regulars

2006:
4 NHL All Stars
19 NHL Regulars

2007:
2 NHL All Stars
15 NHL Regulars

2008:
4 NHL Allstars
17 NHL Regulars

2009:
2 NHL Allstars
11 NHL Regulars

2010:
2 NHL Allstars
10 NHL Regulars

2011:
4 NHL Regulars

We've got some outliers there, and the most recent years don't give time for development... but it does indicate a fairly strong calculation for the development of a 1st round pick.

If we average it out over 10 years, you have a 15% chance of drafting an NHL All Star. Yes, the 1st overall picks are far more likely then the 20th pick, but overall the distribution is fairly even after the first pick.

You have a 57% chance of drafting an NHL regular (defined by being someone that plays most games for their team).

Take out the last three years to give time for development and those numbers shoot up to 19.5% for an All Star & 70% for an NHL regular.

What does this tell us?

With 5 first round picks, the numbers tell us that the "10 year assets" will give

3.5 NHL Regulars, with 1 of them being an all star.

Again, just going by the percentages, you could trade those 4 players above for a VERY high likelihood of having an NHL all star within 10 years. Would you do that? Add that to our already bulging prospect pool and we could have an extremely talented club in 5 years.

Playoffs or no playoffs this year, burke himself says this team will get blown out - so why not build for the future? Ideally this happened 5 years ago, but what can you do.

For the record, I like cmac, but getting a 1st for him would have been a steal. Kuli is similar because of his down year - schenn and grabo, sure, the arguments for keeping them are there.

Want more justification? 9 of our current players were 1st round picks. Don't look at the fact that they suck, look at the fact that they are actual NHL players. 1st round picks, more often then not, make the NHL and have solid careers.

Just something to think about while we sit in our sorrows
How do you know the 4 players? Burke never mentioned them. Don't pretend to know. Also, don't pretend to know if the pick was bottom of the first or middle. Based on all this how the heck can anyone debate whether it was a good idea or not.

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02-29-2012, 02:19 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indigobuffalo View Post
Wait, it gets even better!!

We could have traded those key guys from our roster for specific 1st round picks. Then traded down those picks to get even more picks!

The 1st overall pick is worth approximately the value of the 2nd overall + the 3rd overall, meaning that you could trade down to get those two, assuming the trading partner had both.

So imagine this scenario:

Trade Schenn for the 10th overall (let's just speculate here)
Trade Kulemin for the 24th overall
Trade MacArthur for the 20th overall
Trade Grabovski for the 27th overall + 57th overall (let's say we asked for a conditional pick based on the team hitting the conference finals)

So then we trade the 10th for the 15th+45th; we trade the 15th for the 17th+77th; we trade the 45th, 57th and 77th for the 28th;

Then the Leafs draft 17th, 20th, 24th, 27th and 28th!!! That's a whole extra 1st round pick!!! Which according to the OP's guesstimistics (guesstimated statistics) means a 75% chance of getting a All-Star Caliber player!!

Which we all know means Mike Komisarek.

So we could then get 5 Komisarek type players! Wowzaa!!!11!1!
Guesstimistics - I like that word

That being said, komi is the worst all star in the past 10 years.

I understand that the rebuild is over, we're close to competing, etc. But we're not. I'm not saying that the team is in a crisis and we'll suck for ever - but if we make it in this year, it's a quick exit, and if not, we'll get our customary 9th place, crap draft pick spot.

I'm sick of it - I'd MUCH rather have an exciting team like the oilers who will no doubt be in the hunt in the next couple years. Not only does that many prospects help you, but it lets you bundle them for those last pieces when you need it.

We have a couple key pieces we can build around (Kessel, Dion, Gardiner (perhaps?), Reimer (perhaps? fluke?)) but they only have 5-6 years before that time is over. If unloading this year got us solid prospects that solidify a deep run in year 3-4 then I'd do it in a second instead of this fringe rebuild on the fly crap.

Could schenn, kuli, grabo, cmac help us on a deep playoff team? Sure, maybe. Are any of them suiting up for the bruins last year? Probably not. They aren't that good.

Go look at ANY all star game in the past 6-7 years and each player on that is better then those 4. Komi is the exception in 2009, hometown pick, yadayadayada.

Again, I'm not making the numbers up - of 30 players in each first round, it averages at 6 of them develop into All stars. Yes, we could get 5 picks and pick 5 duds, but there are 6 all stars in those 30 players and we would have 5 picks to find them... I like those odds.

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02-29-2012, 02:22 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birddog View Post
How do you know the 4 players? Burke never mentioned them. Don't pretend to know. Also, don't pretend to know if the pick was bottom of the first or middle. Based on all this how the heck can anyone debate whether it was a good idea or not.
Darren Dreger ‏ @DarrenDreger
I missed Burke presser, but can tell you Tor could have traded Schenn,Kulemin,MacArthur and Grabovski for 1st round picks. #tradecentre

P.s.... it's a forum. It's for debating

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02-29-2012, 02:23 PM
  #86
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Burke did name the 4 players that were offered 1sts for their services.

Not taking a 1st for Grabo is a mistake.
If you aren't winning the cup and you have a chance to get a 1st for a complete rental you need to take it.
You give Connolly Grabo's minutes.
Mac is another guy that you take a 1st and run.
He is not as good as Veersteg and we blew him out for a 1st. Frattin can play Mac's minutes.

Not interested in a 1st for Kulemin or Schenn.

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02-29-2012, 02:23 PM
  #87
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Only Macarthur; depending on who's pick it was.

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02-29-2012, 02:27 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
The rebuild is over, as Burke claims this is the team core group going forward.

Next season is year 5 for Burke and he believed the Leafs would be Cup competitive by then, so he isn`t going to tear it all down now..

Sink or swim he is all in, no turning back now to rebuild via the draft as he is vehemently opposed to that process, and feels its not necessary to build a winner through that means.
No idea why you would say vehemently opposed to the draft???

We have 7 first round picks from the last 4 drafts currently on the Leafs or in our system. Don't you think we have done a pretty good job building thru the draft. And please lets not go down the Kessel road one more time.

You are 100% correct Burke is not going to tear it down now. And I for one is very glad he is consistant on that.


Last edited by The Messenger: 02-29-2012 at 03:33 PM.
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02-29-2012, 02:28 PM
  #89
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How do you know it wasn't 1 or 2 teams offering 1 1st round pick for 1 of the Leafs 2nd liners? A team like Chicago would be interested in all 3 IMO, so they're first could've been offered for any of the 3. There in essence is your offer of a 1st round pick for each.

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02-29-2012, 02:41 PM
  #90
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I'd be in the "for Macarthur, sure" camp.
Heading into next year, without any additions and WITH a Macarthur trade, probably 5/6 spots on the top two lines are already accounted for. I'd do it to give the more offense-oriented young players a shot at top 6 duties, with the secondary benefit of clearing a bit more cap. Simultaneously kinda jumpstart their learning curves in bigger roles and increase flexibility to add in the off-season. Also adds a decent prospect to the pool (or have the asset to peddle), if you trust the scouting department. Given some pretty good seeming drafting lately, that doesn't sound like a bad idea.
By this time next year (when Lupul, Bozak, Macarthur and others are expired contracts), you'd want a pretty good idea of what these kids can do in top-6 roles anyway.

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02-29-2012, 02:45 PM
  #91
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Turning down 4 picks would be good move if all picks were for the same year. Some of those picks probably would be pretty far down the list. Now if you had a window of 4 years to choose when you'd take the pick, well that would have been worth it.

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02-29-2012, 02:47 PM
  #92
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I just have to reply to post with some real math.

I'm going to make a very simple assumption at the beginning. All the teams trading for these players are teams that will make the playoffs, and therefore the picks will fall from 15-30.

Also we will consider a second case of omitting the 2003 draft year because it was a crazy draft.

Now, looking at the drafts from 1998-2008 (which may still be too recent a cutoff to accurate decide how many allstars will come from the draft) we have the following data

Picks in 15-27/30 (in 1998 there were only 27 picks in the first round) that became allstars

1998 - 2
1999 - 2
2000 - 2
2001 - 0
2002 - 1
2003 - 6
2004 - 1
2005 - 0
2006 - 1
2007 - 0
2008 - 1

16 allstars / 11 drafts = 1.45 allstars/draft from picks 15-27/30

omitting 2003 gives 10 allstars / 10 drafts = 1 AS / DRAFT PICK 15-27/30

Historical data shows there is a 27-30% chance no allstar exists in picks 15-30, but lets just be optimistic and say that there is at least one.

Then assuming there is 1 allstar in the draft the leafs have a 25% chance of drafting him. Assuming there are two, the leafs have a 43.75% chance of drafting one, 6.25% chance of drafting both.

Lets also remember this illustrious list of allstars includes Nick Boynton and Scott Gomez.

Would you have traded all those players for a 43.75% chance at an allstar?

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Old
02-29-2012, 02:56 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Iceman View Post
Burke did name the 4 players that were offered 1sts for their services.

Not taking a 1st for Grabo is a mistake.
If you aren't winning the cup and you have a chance to get a 1st for a complete rental you need to take it.
You give Connolly Grabo's minutes.
Mac is another guy that you take a 1st and run.
He is not as good as Veersteg and we blew him out for a 1st. Frattin can play Mac's minutes.

Not interested in a 1st for Kulemin or Schenn.
We'll sign Grabo so getting a first would is thrown out imo. THe only one we probably could/should have taken is for Mac if thats even true.

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02-29-2012, 03:00 PM
  #94
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With a proper tank and 5 first round picks? Leafs would literally own the draft.

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02-29-2012, 03:13 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
The rebuild is over, as Burke claims this is the team core group going forward.

Next season is year 5 for Burke and he believed the Leafs would be Cup competitive by then, so he isn`t going to tear it all down now..

Sink or swim he is all in, no turning back now to rebuild via the draft as he is vehemently opposed to that process, and feels its not necessary to build a winner through that means.
Sheesh. I just felt a sudden burst of anger and my eye is twitching.

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Old
02-29-2012, 03:26 PM
  #96
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If the reports are accurate, they were all likely to be late first round picks. Nonetheless, I would have traded Grabovski and MacArthur for 2 extra 1st round picks and replaced them with Kadri and Frattin in the lineup for the rest of the season.

It's too soon to give up on Kulemin and Schenn for late 1st round picks though. Both players are still young with upside, and they are years away from unrestricted free agency. I think they are both capable of bouncing back with solid seasons next year. Remember, Kulemin and Schenn were two of the best players on the team a year ago.

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02-29-2012, 03:30 PM
  #97
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Schenn-no, has to be a way overpayment. Guy was a top 5 pick and is sitll developing.

those other 3 yea maybe, but Burke wants to give Wilson a fair shot at the playoffs. It would also eliminate all of our depth

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02-29-2012, 03:37 PM
  #98
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I am definitely very anti-tank. I dont see the point of going into a season deciding to lose. It creates a culture of losing, and people dont need to buy season tickets to watch a team dog it. That being said, I don't see the point of keeping players that are beyond the core. I think the best way to stock the cupboard is to sell of players as they are identified as not part of the core moving forward.

To use Mess war analogy. I agree that you have to recognize when the best laid plans arent working and its time to retreat but tanking is equivalent to going into battle knowing you are going to lose.

Rule 1: Never lose something for nothing. We saw what happened with Ottawa when they lost Chara and redden for nothing. Tucker, and Sundin here.

Rule 2: insanity is trying the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result.

I don't believe Liles, Grabo, MacArthur should be part of the core. We have younger players who should be given the shot. I cant complain at the price liles was signed at, but I would have like to have traded liles and Grabo for firsts.

Schenn will bounce back and should not be dealt for futures, Mac can be dealt next year.

This team is not ready this year. It was a good effort, but no point in keeping liles and Grabo. I would have much rather ended up with say the 10th, 19th, 23rd pick. And if they end up at 7th or so, maybe that would be enough to move into say top 5...

There are lots of good players coming up in the system.

2006: Kessel, Gunnar, Reimer, Kule
2008: Schenn Gardiner, Colborne.
2009: Kadri, Ashton, Blacker, Deschamps, D'amigo
2010: Ross.
2011: Biggs, Percy etc.....

I like how burke was able to stock the cupboard, but why not 2 more this year, and sell off connelly, army, mac next year?

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02-29-2012, 03:41 PM
  #99
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stopped there. Yes indeed we should have Grabo (tough but we aren't making the playoff's with him), Mac (one good year) and Kulemin (one good year), traded what was needed to get a top 2 or maybe 3 pick. I guess we keep schenn. Why we feel the need to be so loyal to the same group of players that haven't, and likely won't this year either, make the playoffs astounds me.

Quote:
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I am definitely very anti-tank. I dont see the point of going into a season deciding to lose. It creates a culture of losing
Pittsburgh beg to differ.

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Old
02-29-2012, 03:46 PM
  #100
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He would've been killed for selling roster pieces for 1st round picks and giving up on the playoffs.

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