HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Wash - Edm Proposal

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-01-2006, 01:39 PM
  #26
JonQuixote
Registered User
 
JonQuixote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,220
vCash: 500
Because of Kolzig's UFA status, he'd command something like a solid prospect or two and a conditional draft pick. You're not gonna get a guy like Bergeron or Hemsky for somebody who could just wind up back in Washington anyway.

If he moves - and let's say to Edmonton, just for argument's sake - it would probably be for something like a third that becomes a second or first if Kolzig resigns in the off-season. If he doesn't, Washington has their opportunity to bring him back.

The term "rent-a-player" was coined for a reason. You're not trading the value of the player, you're trading the value of the player for the last month of the season and the playoffs.

Once the playoffs are reasonably out of Washington's reach - if they're not already - they'd be *saps* not to move him. For one, there's no prohibition right now on trying to talk current contract extension with him and find out if a) he really wants to resign with a rebuilding Washington, and b) what he'd ask and c) if Washington wants to pay that figure. And if they're in agreement, it's see you July 1st.

So look at something like this deal, Washington:

To Washington:
Taylor Chorney
Yan Stasney
Jussi Maarkanen
4th round Draft Pick
AND
Olaf Kolzig
AND
a one or two spot increase in draft positioning

OR
To Washington:
Taylor Chorney
Yan Stasney
Jussi Maarkanen
2nd round Draft Pick in 2006 and 2007
AND
a one or two spot increase in draft positioning
AND
5 million dollars in freed up money to spend in the off season (boy, wouldn't Marc Savard look nice feathering passes to Alex? And look at that, we still have some cash left over for a guy like Vesa Toskala)


And it's one of the two. Compare that to what you get if you stand pat.

To Washington:
Olaf Kolzig

But you're not gonna get Brendan Morrison or Marc-Andre Bergeron for Olaf Kolzig. I mean, those trades are probably pretty fair, *but* only if we're talking about Kolzig for the next three years or so. Key NHL Roster players just don't go over for rent-a-players. That's why the Conditional Draft Pick was invented. Kolzig has two values - one for the remainder of the season and one for the remainder of the season and the next few years.

But regardless of which value Washington gets, it would be a major boneheaded move on their part to not get either.

JonQuixote is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 01:41 PM
  #27
theoil
Registered User
 
theoil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 9,155
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit
To Edmonton: Kolzig
To Washington: Conklin, Winchester, 1st, 4th.

Washington gets a 1st & 4th round pick, a decent power forward prospect, and a goalie to fill a roster spot who's rights they'll have beyong this season. A similar return to what Weight got from Carolina.

Edmonton gets their #1 goalie, and since Washington sucks so bad at drafting, there's little risk of the picks comming back to haunt them.
Or of us making use of the picks if we kept them?

theoil is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 01:50 PM
  #28
misfit
Moderator
 
misfit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: just north of...everything
Posts: 15,726
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by theoil
Or of us making use of the picks if we kept them?
True enough. The Oilers are probably better off trading the pick anyway.

misfit is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 03:07 PM
  #29
Beef03
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Red Deer, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 127
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonQuixote
Because of Kolzig's UFA status, he'd command something like a solid prospect or two and a conditional draft pick. You're not gonna get a guy like Bergeron or Hemsky for somebody who could just wind up back in Washington anyway.

If he moves - and let's say to Edmonton, just for argument's sake - it would probably be for something like a third that becomes a second or first if Kolzig resigns in the off-season. If he doesn't, Washington has their opportunity to bring him back.

The term "rent-a-player" was coined for a reason. You're not trading the value of the player, you're trading the value of the player for the last month of the season and the playoffs.

Once the playoffs are reasonably out of Washington's reach - if they're not already - they'd be *saps* not to move him. For one, there's no prohibition right now on trying to talk current contract extension with him and find out if a) he really wants to resign with a rebuilding Washington, and b) what he'd ask and c) if Washington wants to pay that figure. And if they're in agreement, it's see you July 1st.

So look at something like this deal, Washington:

To Washington:
Taylor Chorney
Yan Stasney
Jussi Maarkanen
4th round Draft Pick
AND
Olaf Kolzig
AND
a one or two spot increase in draft positioning

OR
To Washington:
Taylor Chorney
Yan Stasney
Jussi Maarkanen
2nd round Draft Pick in 2006 and 2007
AND
a one or two spot increase in draft positioning
AND
5 million dollars in freed up money to spend in the off season (boy, wouldn't Marc Savard look nice feathering passes to Alex? And look at that, we still have some cash left over for a guy like Vesa Toskala)


And it's one of the two. Compare that to what you get if you stand pat.

To Washington:
Olaf Kolzig

But you're not gonna get Brendan Morrison or Marc-Andre Bergeron for Olaf Kolzig. I mean, those trades are probably pretty fair, *but* only if we're talking about Kolzig for the next three years or so. Key NHL Roster players just don't go over for rent-a-players. That's why the Conditional Draft Pick was invented. Kolzig has two values - one for the remainder of the season and one for the remainder of the season and the next few years.

But regardless of which value Washington gets, it would be a major boneheaded move on their part to not get either.

Finally somebody with half a clue.

For those Washington guys looking for Hemsky as a future star or best prospect - he no longer is a prospect or a future star - he has arrived, he's established, he's the corner stone of their offence. If you're thinking best prospect or fututre star, you're looking at Schremp or Pouliot. That being said, the above deal proposed by JQ is likely the most realistic of deals that have come across here.

Beef03 is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 04:19 PM
  #30
txpd
Registered User
 
txpd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 42,985
vCash: 500
I'll say it again. Hemsky makes NO SENSE, because he is the second leading scorer on the team. That said, there is NO CHANCE, that anyone gets a confident in his goaltending-goaltender for a 3rd round draft choice.

LOL, come on guys. we won't see in this case because kolzig will resign in washington. if you think that a team is going to get a goalie that they want to go into the playoffs with for a 2nd or 3rd round draft choice, you are dreaming.

hemsky no. not going to happen. a 3rd round pick is just as big a joke.
frankly if that is all its worth to you, then there is no point in doing it. stick with what you have.

txpd is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 04:27 PM
  #31
JonQuixote
Registered User
 
JonQuixote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by txpd
LOL, come on guys. we won't see in this case because kolzig will resign in washington. if you think that a team is going to get a goalie that they want to go into the playoffs with for a 2nd or 3rd round draft choice, you are dreaming.
.
Even if Olaf Kolzig does resign in Washington, it makes a lot of sense for them to still move him now for whatever they could get for him. Even if it's just a 2nd rounder. It's simple asset maximization. All Kolzig can do for Washington right now is steal enough games to keep them out of the top two picks.

Washington is in rebuilding mode. Move Kolzig for some assets and if they really want him and he really wants them next year, sign him as a UFA. The only thing you're really trading is the risk that the other team will resign him during the "exclusive negotiation" period in May/June. But if Ollie and the Caps have an agreement already, that's a pretty minor risk.

If Ollie's a Capital after the trade deadline, they had better be within striking distance of that last playoff spot. Otherwise, it's silly to keep him.

JonQuixote is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 04:51 PM
  #32
Sammy*
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonQuixote
Even if Olaf Kolzig does resign in Washington, it makes a lot of sense for them to still move him now for whatever they could get for him. Even if it's just a 2nd rounder. It's simple asset maximization. All Kolzig can do for Washington right now is steal enough games to keep them out of the top two picks.

Washington is in rebuilding mode. Move Kolzig for some assets and if they really want him and he really wants them next year, sign him as a UFA. The only thing you're really trading is the risk that the other team will resign him during the "exclusive negotiation" period in May/June. But if Ollie and the Caps have an agreement already, that's a pretty minor risk.

If Ollie's a Capital after the trade deadline, they had better be within striking distance of that last playoff spot. Otherwise, it's silly to keep him.
Exactly.
Why anyone thinks that Kolzig is really any different than Weight, either in value, reasons for trading , or what he can potentially bring to a team, is beyond me.
Like, some people speak of Kolzig like he's some sort of lock to take a team deep in the playoffs. He's no more likely to do that than Weight is. Like, he won the Vezina 6 years ago, not 6 months ago.


Last edited by Sammy*: 02-01-2006 at 05:01 PM.
Sammy* is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 04:55 PM
  #33
HSHS
Losing is a disease
 
HSHS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Redondo Beach, Ca
Country: United States
Posts: 17,639
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonQuixote
Even if Olaf Kolzig does resign in Washington, it makes a lot of sense for them to still move him now for whatever they could get for him. Even if it's just a 2nd rounder. It's simple asset maximization. All Kolzig can do for Washington right now is steal enough games to keep them out of the top two picks.

Washington is in rebuilding mode. Move Kolzig for some assets and if they really want him and he really wants them next year, sign him as a UFA. The only thing you're really trading is the risk that the other team will resign him during the "exclusive negotiation" period in May/June. But if Ollie and the Caps have an agreement already, that's a pretty minor risk.

If Ollie's a Capital after the trade deadline, they had better be within striking distance of that last playoff spot. Otherwise, it's silly to keep him.
So the benefit of a 2nd round pick to you is worth the risk of giving Kolzig enough time to change his mind and enough other teams to attempt to woo him.... WOW.

I hope for your own good you don't put money in the stock market.

HSHS is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 04:58 PM
  #34
HSHS
Losing is a disease
 
HSHS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Redondo Beach, Ca
Country: United States
Posts: 17,639
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy
Exactly.
Why anyone thinks that Kolzig is really any different than Weight is beyond me.
If you don't understand the difference between a starting goaltender and an 3rd line center (an obviously overqualified one) than no one can help you. One gets 60 min of ice time and the other gets 15.

HSHS is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 05:04 PM
  #35
oil slick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 7,383
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sammy
Exactly.
Why anyone thinks that Kolzig is really any different than Weight is beyond me.
I think goalies usually have less trade value.

Look at it this way. I think basically every team could use Weight.. Even Ottawa and Carolina - the two highest scoring teams in the league - because even if you've got a better center, you just stick Weight on your second line and use him there. In the playoffs, a 2nd line center is huge.

But Kolzig... basically hes not useful to any team with a better starting goalie (since the starting goalie plays the entire playoffs). So you immediately reduce the number of interested teams from 29 down to the number that think Kolzig isn't a good upgrade over their starter.

I look at the playoff bounde teams and I see only a handful that would think he's an upgrade.

oil slick is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 05:05 PM
  #36
Sammy*
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 6,501
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by heshootshescores
If you don't understand the difference between a starting goaltender and an 3rd line center (an obviously overqualified one) than no one can help you. One gets 60 min of ice time and the other gets 15.
Sorry there Bud. Their value is the virtually the same. You dont think that Weight would be #1 center on the Flames? Obviously, but just as obviously the Flames wouldnt offer as much as the Canes.
You may not like it, too bad, but your Vezina Trophy winner of 6 years ago (if I have to hear that piece of irrelevent garbage again I'll puke) just is not worth that much.

Sammy* is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 05:27 PM
  #37
HSHS
Losing is a disease
 
HSHS's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Redondo Beach, Ca
Country: United States
Posts: 17,639
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick
I think goalies usually have less trade value.

Look at it this way. I think basically every team could use Weight.. Even Ottawa and Carolina - the two highest scoring teams in the league - because even if you've got a better center, you just stick Weight on your second line and use him there. In the playoffs, a 2nd line center is huge.

But Kolzig... basically hes not useful to any team with a better starting goalie (since the starting goalie plays the entire playoffs). So you immediately reduce the number of interested teams from 29 down to the number that think Kolzig isn't a good upgrade over their starter.

I look at the playoff bounde teams and I see only a handful that would think he's an upgrade.
It only takes 2 in order to drive up the price. Heck, it only takes one team that misreads a market.

HSHS is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 05:57 PM
  #38
oil slick
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 7,383
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by heshootshescores
It only takes 2 in order to drive up the price. Heck, it only takes one team that misreads a market.
Maybe someone will pay alot - but there is certainly a huge difference between Weight and Kolzig. There are many more teams that would potentially get into a bidding war for Weight.

oil slick is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 07:59 PM
  #39
JonQuixote
Registered User
 
JonQuixote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by heshootshescores
So the benefit of a 2nd round pick to you is worth the risk of giving Kolzig enough time to change his mind and enough other teams to attempt to woo him.... WOW.

I hope for your own good you don't put money in the stock market.
???


Damned straight. Kolzig is an Unrestricted Free Agent, and if he wants some "woo" he's gonna get it no matter what Washington does. He has all the cards - he either wants to test the market or he doesn't.

The only risk is if Ollie says, emphatically, "Don't rent me out for the last little bit." Can you really see him doing that? It'd only improve the Washington team he'd come back to and it'd give him a chance to win a Stanley cup.

I don't really understand what you were getting at with your stock market analogy, but allow me to present one of my own. If there's a promise of fidelity, you trust and go on about your business or you can turn into creepy possessive stalker and start listening in on phone calls and following him to the bar during "girls night out."

If Ollie resigns with Washington - a Washington that is at least another year from emerging from the "rebuilding" label - it's for love. He's either going to do it or he isn't. In the mean time, Washington has to do what they can to make themselves a better team.

JonQuixote is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 08:08 PM
  #40
JonQuixote
Registered User
 
JonQuixote's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,220
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by oil slick
I think goalies usually have less trade value.
I think it's just that, currently, there are more goalies on the market than top centres. And fewer trading partners. A team only plays 1 goaltender in the playoffs (hopefully), and 12 forwards (or 4 centres).

Who's looking for a starting goalie?

Desperate
Edmonton
Vancouver

Looking
Colorado
Tampa Bay

Who's (potentially) available? Kolzig, Raycroft, Biron, Cujo, Giguere, Khabibulin, Weekes, Nabokov, Toskala, Theodore, Luongo

Now, who's interested in a first or second line centre?

Seriously
Calgary, Ottawa, Philly, Buffalo, Nashville

Looking
Everybody else

Who's (potentially) available? Jokinen, maybe Koivu or Savard.


But in another year it could be flip-flopped. There could be a great need for goaltenders and a glut of potential centres or forwards ready for firesale.

JonQuixote is offline  
Old
02-01-2006, 08:27 PM
  #41
Asiaoil
Registered User
 
Asiaoil's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Country: Thailand
Posts: 5,259
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonQuixote
I think it's just that, currently, there are more goalies on the market than top centres. And fewer trading partners. A team only plays 1 goaltender in the playoffs (hopefully), and 12 forwards (or 4 centres).

Who's looking for a starting goalie?

Desperate
Edmonton
Vancouver

Looking
Colorado
Tampa Bay

Who's (potentially) available? Kolzig, Raycroft, Biron, Cujo, Giguere, Khabibulin, Weekes, Nabokov, Toskala, Theodore, Luongo

Now, who's interested in a first or second line centre?

Seriously
Calgary, Ottawa, Philly, Buffalo, Nashville

Looking
Everybody else

Who's (potentially) available? Jokinen, maybe Koivu or Savard.


But in another year it could be flip-flopped. There could be a great need for goaltenders and a glut of potential centres or forwards ready for firesale.

....and I don't even think that Vancouver can be put in the desperate category. Auld is tied with Gerber for 12th place in league SP at .909 and no one would say that CAR is desperate for a goalie. An SP of .909 is considerably above league average and Cloutier will be back for the playoffs. Abby has been plying better for the Av and TBs guys are average as well. Sure all 4 teams would like to upgrade - but if Abby and Auld continue to play well then I doubt their teams move.

There is a reason why no goalie trades have been made since TC and the cap clearance sales - teams are trying to get more than the market is willing to pay for their extra goalies. The trade deadline will force reality into this situation and teams like BUF, ANA, WAS and CB will either take market price or be stuck holding onto their extra goalies. These teams will also not get more in the summer when the UFA goalies hit the market or at TC when teams are dumping contract to make the cap.

Asiaoil is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:25 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.