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2012-2013 Sharks Roster analysis

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Old
03-02-2012, 04:38 PM
  #151
CupfortheSharks
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I think you guys are missing the obvious about the PK. Nabokov = Good PK numbers. Niemi = Bad PK numbers.

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03-02-2012, 04:40 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
I think you guys are missing the obvious about the PK. Nabokov = Good PK numbers. Niemi = Bad PK numbers.
Evgeni Nabokov, career shorthanded SV%: 0.870
Antti Niemi, career shorthanded SV%: 0.876

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03-02-2012, 04:46 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
I think you guys are missing the obvious about the PK. Nabokov = Good PK numbers. Niemi = Bad PK numbers.
This has been discussed ad nauseum, and we've concluded that that is not the case.

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03-02-2012, 04:47 PM
  #154
CupfortheSharks
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Evgeni Nabokov, career shorthanded SV%: 0.870
Antti Niemi, career shorthanded SV%: 0.876
In 2009 - 2010, Nabokov's shorthanded SV% was .922 and the Sharks were #5 in PK %.

Nabokov had some bad teams in front of him early in his career.

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03-02-2012, 04:50 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
In 2009 - 2010, Nabokov's shorthanded SV% was .922 and the Sharks were #5 in PK %.

Nabokov had some bad teams in front of him early in his career.
One season isn't nearly big enough of a sample size for PK SV% to be meaningful.

Even career rates aren't perfect estimations of actual goaltender talent level when you're dealing with PK SV% - teams just don't spend enough time on the penalty kill.

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03-02-2012, 04:50 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Is it normal for teams to let players coach a PK? Talk about picking the wrong 2 players. I hope DW & TMac recognize the mistake and hire a real defensive assistant coach.

Easy, I know you made the point that the Sharks have never bought a player out but I'd counter that and say Niity and McLaren were effectively treated the same, just stashed in the AHL for the last year of their contracts, yet the Sharks still had to pay their salary. In McLaren's case, I don't think the Sharks could risk buying him out b/c they lacked cap space.

Since Zus has an NMC, the Sharks couldn't stash him in Worcester (without his blessing) so a buyout is their only option. I think the Sharks will think long and hard about buying him out.

I agree with one caveat, if he plays his ass off in the playoffs (crosses fingers)

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03-02-2012, 04:53 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I agree, its a unique situation (not injury related) and he's uniquely terrible. There is a reason they are putting him on the 4th line and limiting his minutes. It says 'we are done trying to babysit you'. Coming from this coaching staff (who insists on playing White in critical moments) that's a pretty damning statement.

I'm wondering if the death of Demitra has hit him like the crash hit Viznovsky (reportedly) and he's just not all there right now.
I've read that he had a few very close friends on that plane

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03-02-2012, 05:15 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by bullslugg View Post
[/B]
I agree with one caveat, if he plays his ass off in the playoffs (crosses fingers)
Even still, if the Sharks want to re-sign Moore, then next season Zus becomes an overpaid 4th line center and takes minutes away from Desjardins. If we have the cap space, then it wouldn't be horrendous to have him as the 13th forward but I would hate to see Zus be a blocker to re-signing any other UFA.

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03-02-2012, 05:23 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Even still, if the Sharks want to re-sign Moore, then next season Zus becomes an overpaid 4th line center and takes minutes away from Desjardins. If we have the cap space, then it wouldn't be horrendous to have him as the 13th forward but I would hate to see Zus be a blocker to re-signing any other UFA.
It really just depends on what his clause actually is. Since nobody really has access to it, we don't know if it's like Heatley where there is a window to move him or if there's a list of teams or whatever. I have to believe that with a guy like him on a two year deal that he would have to make sure that there was some opening to move him just in case it didn't work out the first year. It shouldn't be difficult to move him if so. He won't get much but they don't need much from him in a deal.

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03-02-2012, 05:30 PM
  #160
CupfortheSharks
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
One season isn't nearly big enough of a sample size for PK SV% to be meaningful.

Even career rates aren't perfect estimations of actual goaltender talent level when you're dealing with PK SV% - teams just don't spend enough time on the penalty kill.
Fair enough. I was just responding to your use of stats to make my statement look false. They were irrelevent. You just have to watch the games to know that Niemi is, at minimum, part of the problem.

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03-02-2012, 05:36 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
This has been discussed ad nauseum, and we've concluded that that is not the case.
The HFBoards group think may have reached that concluson, but I haven't. I hate to use a Drewism, because some of his stuff is stupid but...."your goaltender is your most important penalty killer." I happen to agree with that.

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03-02-2012, 05:41 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
Fair enough. I was just responding to your use of stats to make my statement look false. They were irrelevent. You just have to watch the games to know that Niemi is, at minimum, part of the problem.
No, your statement is still false. Nabokov's PK results were worse than Niemi's have been. I'm just saying it's uncertain that .870 and .876 are their actual talent levels (especially doubtful for Niemi given the small sample size) but that's mostly tangential to what you were suggesting.

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03-02-2012, 06:20 PM
  #163
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The way that LW talks, so factually and with heavy usage of statistics as well as heavy use of strong language ("your statement is false"), maybe he is more deserving of Vaasa's famous avatar?

Vaasa's idealism (over facts), heavy use of hindsight and conjecture, and his preference for youth don't really fit Sheldon....

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03-02-2012, 06:35 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
The way that LW talks, so factually and with heavy usage of statistics as well as heavy use of strong language ("your statement is false"), maybe he is more deserving of Vaasa's famous avatar?

Vaasa's idealism (over facts), heavy use of hindsight and conjecture, and his preference for youth don't really fit Sheldon....
Well that poster's statement (or implication, I suppose) that Niemi is at fault for the Sharks' PK woes compared to Nabokov is factually incorrect since Nabokov's PK SV% with the Sharks was lower than what Niemi has posted so far.

As I've already said twice now, no one can definitively declare that one is better in shorthanded situations than the other but in terms of actual results, there's a clear answer here.

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03-02-2012, 06:41 PM
  #165
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Lots of unrealistic ideas in here, but hey, we can dream. Just a few things I want to say:

Handzus won't be bought out. DW never does this and Handzus is only signed for another year. He'll be a Shark next season.

Boyle won't be traded. By far our best puck moving defenseman, our only legitimate power play quarterback and one of this club's leaders. A fierce competitor and exactly the kind of guy you want on your team in the playoffs. DW would be crazy to trade him this summer.

We're not getting Ryan Suter. Not only can we not afford him, but I don't see him coming out West. I think he either stays in Nashville or goes to a hockey market in the Eastern Conference.

DW won't get a 2nd round pick for Wingels. Why the hell would any team do that trade? If an established, two-way center with grit, playoff experience and high-end PK skills (Moore) only costs a 2nd, why would a young, inexperienced winger with limited offensive potential net us a 2nd rounder? Wingels won't be moved, and if he is, it'll be for a late pick.

Havlat won't be traded. His value will be at an all-time low this offseason considering he missed most of this year. Plus he has an NTC and hasn't really had a chance to show what he can do here. He'll be in teal for at least another year.

Just my thoughts. Realistically, I can see DW signing Brad Stuart and going after a goalie if Niemi continues to play poorly.

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03-02-2012, 06:59 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by glasgow26 View Post
Handzus won't be bought out. DW never does this and Handzus is only signed for another year. He'll be a Shark next season.
Agree with what you wrote and most posters do as well. It's just early exploratory discussion as far as I'm concerned.

Re: there's no precedence in buying a player out. I'd counterargue that what DW did to (Kyle) McLaren and Niitty are effectively the same. He stashed both of them for cap space (in Kyle's case) and goalie depth (in Niitty's case). In Kyle's case, we don't know if DW would have bought him out if he could. I believe we were so tight against the cap that year a buyout wasn't feasible. We definitely were tight against the cap the following year.

So, I ask - what's the difference really between buying a player out vs. stashing them in the AHL/Europe? Not a ton for a veteran like Handzus. A buyout can actually be beneficial for a vet b/c he'd have the chance to sign with another club at a more friendly cap hit. Obviously, if DW could trade first, he'd explore that route.

If we sign Stuart and re-sign our FAs - Winnik, Moore, Galiardi, Braun Desi, and Wingels. I'll be happy. Winchester is gravy. This team would have another year to gel and develop better chemistry.

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03-02-2012, 07:07 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Gilligans Island View Post
Agree with what you wrote and most posters do as well. It's just early exploratory discussion as far as I'm concerned.

Re: there's no precedence in buying a player out. I'd counterargue that what DW did to (Kyle) McLaren and Niitty are effectively the same. He stashed both of them for cap space (in Kyle's case) and goalie depth (in Niitty's case). In Kyle's case, we don't know if DW would have bought him out if he could. I believe we were so tight against the cap that year a buyout wasn't feasible. We definitely were tight against the cap the following year.

So, I ask - what's the difference really between buying a player out vs. stashing them in the AHL/Europe? Not a ton for a veteran like Handzus. A buyout can actually be beneficial for a vet b/c he'd have the chance to sign with another club at a more friendly cap hit. Obviously, if DW could trade first, he'd explore that route.

If we sign Stuart and re-sign our FAs - Winnik, Moore, Galiardi, Braun Desi, and Wingels. I'll be happy. Winchester is gravy. This team would have another year to gel and develop better chemistry.
This also assumes that there's no window in which to trade Handzus. If he doesn't finish this season with a marked improvement and there is a window to move him, it will be done.

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03-02-2012, 07:09 PM
  #168
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I would give the odds of a 2 year contract with a NMC having a trade window at less than 1%.

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03-02-2012, 07:10 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
This also assumes that there's no window in which to trade Handzus. If he doesn't finish this season with a marked improvement and there is a window to move him, it will be done.
There may be a window or there may be a clause with team playoff performance. Recall that Nabby had a codicil which negated his clause if the Sharks didn't make the playoffs.

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03-02-2012, 07:13 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I would give the odds of a 2 year contract with a NMC having a trade window at less than 1%.
I've looked at the CBA before re: NMC's and if I remember right (it's been a while, maybe kdb can chime in here) there can't be any stipulations written into NMC's at all regarding trade windows, etc.

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03-02-2012, 07:17 PM
  #171
Gilligans Island
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I would give the odds of a 2 year contract with a NMC having a trade window at less than 1%.
This.

At this point, if Handzus stays the course, he'll be untradeable regardless if there's a window in his contract. And if he does perform well from here on out, then DW would have to ask why should he trade him. Bit of a quandary there.

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03-02-2012, 07:34 PM
  #172
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I would give the odds of a 2 year contract with a NMC having a trade window at less than 1%.
I sincerely doubt that DW would give Handzus that amount of money and an unconditional NMC on a two year deal. You simply don't give yourself no options except a buyout for a player of Handzus' caliber.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stalockrox View Post
I've looked at the CBA before re: NMC's and if I remember right (it's been a while, maybe kdb can chime in here) there can't be any stipulations written into NMC's at all regarding trade windows, etc.
It is actually prevalent to have stipulations to NMC's. Dany Heatley had one.

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