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Holmgren faces tough decision with JVR

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Old
03-01-2012, 11:20 PM
  #51
DumpyD
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Originally Posted by flyersfan9180 View Post
I think Bobby Ryan is better now then JVR
Gee you're really going out on a limb there fella. One is a proven scorer and the other is a cupcake who can't muster up more than 40 points in a season.

Seriously though. Maybe if JvR plays another 200+ NHL games he'll get it together.

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03-02-2012, 12:33 AM
  #52
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Sorry but I just don't like JVR. I hope we trade him away.

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03-02-2012, 01:08 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Do you ever know what you're talking about? Last installment you had us resigning Carle based on the rationale that netted MORE RANDY JONES.

The better your Corsi the better your puck possession. Detroit was 2nd overall in Corsi in 2010/2011 season. Corsi shows successful puck possession.

The idea is simple: You have to have the puck in order to shoot it.



Shooting generates additional scoring chances. Of course he's getting more point opportunities. He's taking more shots than not. Even if we were to accept Jeff Carter as some sort of refutation of advanced stats, Jeff Carter would be an outlier. Overwhelmingly, hockey players pass the puck around to increase the likelihood of a high percentage shot.
That was not me. You have me confused with someone else. I hate Carle.

To the rest, why not just look at shots? What do blocked or missed shots have to do with anything? As a power play example, how many times have you watched an ineffective PP in which only perimeter shots are generated and many blocked vs a one with fast passing that waits for a higher % shot? That is the point the ineffective, frequent shooting leads to a higher corsi than the latter example.

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03-02-2012, 01:26 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Do you ever know what you're talking about? Last installment you had us resigning Carle based on the rationale that netted MORE RANDY JONES.

The better your Corsi the better your puck possession. Detroit was 2nd overall in Corsi in 2010/2011 season. Corsi shows successful puck possession.

The idea is simple: You have to have the puck in order to shoot it.



Shooting generates additional scoring chances. Of course he's getting more point opportunities. He's taking more shots than not. Even if we were to accept Jeff Carter as some sort of refutation of advanced stats, Jeff Carter would be an outlier. Overwhelmingly, hockey players pass the puck around to increase the likelihood of a high percentage shot.
The NHL disagrees with you.

Here is Ken Holland's quote:

"It's funny because our game looks at numbers just like other games," says Red Wings general manager Ken Holland, "but as much value as we assign to puck possession and how essential it is to winning, we really don't have a numerical value for it that everyone can agree on. Remember when [A's general manager] Billy Beane started emphasizing on-base percentage in baseball? It wasn't just a curious number; it changed the game. It redefined the type of player you wanted on your team. It's coming in hockey; we just have to figure out how."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...67/1/index.htm

More from the article:

"When Scotty Bowman put five Russians on the ice at once, they did things differently," says Holland, who took over from Jim Devellano as Detroit's G.M. in 1997. "If they hit a wall at the blue line, they didn't shoot the puck around the boards; they circled and tried it again, but they didn't give up the puck. In the offensive zone they cycled and didn't give up the puck. They had skill and balance, and they frustrated people. Soon our energy players, our grind lines, they could hold on to it too. You see that today. In the old days you banged the other team's D; today you make them chase you so they're too pooped to make a play at the other end."

If you take quick shots and do the opposite of the above, you will have more shots+missed shots+blocked shots and a higher corsi all else equal.

And even more:

"The NHL kept a form of time-of-possession statistics between 1997 and 2004, tracking the amount of time a puck spent per game in each third of the ice, but never accumulated them over a season to consider their value. "There wasn't much demand for them," says Benny Ercolani, the league's chief statistician. But in the new postlockout world, demand seems certain to increase. One obstacle to getting a standardized number is that many of hockey's newer stats—such as giveaways, takeaways and hits—are at the whim of hometown scorekeepers. It's a case of one man's strategic dump-in morphing into another man's giveaway."

Public stats that are "at the whim of hometown scorekeepers" are not the be all and end all that is my point. If teams had a quant group, they would utilize their own methodology and keep their own stats on players. They wouldn't just surf websites like behindthenet.ca.

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03-02-2012, 02:24 AM
  #55
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More on Corsi. Take the Flyers 3rd to last shift and then the Isles 2nd to last shift in the 2nd period. The Flyers had possession for a while and then the Isles had it for about a third of the time, but still a while and no shots, missed shots or blocked shots were generated (from what I remember live). Now take a Jeff Carter type shift for the Isles instead of the possession time they had where a player went down the wing, fired it high and wide and it went back to the Flyers. That would lead to a positive Corsi number for the Isles (all else equal), whereas the Flyers possession would result in nothing.

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03-02-2012, 02:29 AM
  #56
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Old
03-02-2012, 03:44 AM
  #57
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Sorry, but one more on Corsi and possession.

Let's take soccer. Barcelona and Real Madrid against each other. Barcelona is a possession team and Jose Mourinho's teams really on counter attack. In a match between the two, Barcelona may have 60-70% of possession, but have the same Corsi number (shots on net, missed shots, blocked shots, goals). This is because Real Madrid can generate their Corsi number quickly off turnovers (and Rinaldo on the rush can beat people), while Barcelona waits to set up better scoring chances.

Barcelona's possession will lead to higher relative Corsi versus lesser teams because of their talent vs the oppositions inability to generate Real Madrid type counter attack, so their will be correlation, but it does not mean that Corsi (as in Real Madrid's case) necessarily represents possession.

If teams want a possession stat. They should have the NHL track it by zone or do it themselves. I doubt they would use Corsi.

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Old
03-02-2012, 07:48 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
To the rest, why not just look at shots? What do blocked or missed shots have to do with anything? As a power play example, how many times have you watched an ineffective PP in which only perimeter shots are generated and many blocked vs a one with fast passing that waits for a higher % shot? That is the point the ineffective, frequent shooting leads to a higher corsi than the latter example.
Most people only look at 5on5 Corsi results. This isn't a real argument.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen
A bunch of people said things.
As I said before elsewhere, it's irrelevant what players and coaches, even the league, think concerning advanced stats. It's math. Detroit, irrespective of what system of recordkeeping they use, had a great team Corsi for 2010-2011, which you would expect because they are a puck possession team. You suggested there was distance between their puck possession and Corsi. There isn't. They were 2nd overall.

Cases wherein shots are generated but you wouldn't want to claim that it was quality puck possession, smooths itself out over the season through the bell curve. By and large, the stat is reliable, which is why so many advanced stat people use it. It almost always reflects what you see on the ice over time.

To illustrate the point further, there is an equation which accurately predicts the outcomes of football games between 65%-85% (falling in that window depending on some situations) of the time depending on a metric of drive success. Does it matter if teams, coaches, and the NFL knows of it? Not at all. I could care less about there opinion of it, if they know of it at all. I care more about the fact that an individual data mined 10 years of 1st down stats and charted it correctly.

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Old
03-02-2012, 08:24 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
Yup, if they trade him, it will be the biggest mistake this franchise will ever make.
Most of us had the same exact reaction when Pitkanen was being shopped too

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Old
03-02-2012, 08:33 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Most people only look at 5on5 Corsi results. This isn't a real argument.



As I said before elsewhere, it's irrelevant what players and coaches, even the league, think concerning advanced stats. It's math. Detroit, irrespective of what system of recordkeeping they use, had a great team Corsi for 2010-2011, which you would expect because they are a puck possession team. You suggested there was distance between their puck possession and Corsi. There isn't. They were 2nd overall.

Cases wherein shots are generated but you wouldn't want to claim that it was quality puck possession, smooths itself out over the season through the bell curve. By and large, the stat is reliable, which is why so many advanced stat people use it. It almost always reflects what you see on the ice over time.

To illustrate the point further, there is an equation which accurately predicts the outcomes of football games between 65%-85% (falling in that window depending on some situations) of the time depending on a metric of drive success. Does it matter if teams, coaches, and the NFL knows of it? Not at all. I could care less about there opinion of it, if they know of it at all. I care more about the fact that an individual data mined 10 years of 1st down stats and charted it correctly.

"Story"


Last edited by BillDineen: 03-03-2012 at 01:12 AM.
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03-02-2012, 08:37 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Just gotta watch out for BSH, for they consider "luck" as something statistical. They used the same reasoning behind why Boucher let in more than Leighton (said he was just plain unlucky), and why Nodl didnt score goals (said he had terrible luck).
I can't say anything about the other articles you mentioned, but regarding this one he says that the sample size is to small for shooting percentage (can be true, I can't check that) and therefore the amount of goals someone scores on the same amount of shots fluctuates (basically, goalscorers are lucky). So in conclusion, van Riemsdyk was luckier last season but puts himself in a better position to score this season. The results aren't beautiful but I can't see a fault in the article.


Last edited by Rick Deckard: 03-02-2012 at 09:29 AM.
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03-02-2012, 08:46 AM
  #62
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Old
03-02-2012, 12:32 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
Story.
Okay.

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Old
03-02-2012, 05:34 PM
  #64
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Trading JVR would be moronic without a massive return. He's on basically the same career path as John Leclair was after he first 3 seasons, and he's younger than Leclair was because he only spent 2 years in college instead of four.

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03-02-2012, 06:15 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
More on Corsi. Take the Flyers 3rd to last shift and then the Isles 2nd to last shift in the 2nd period. The Flyers had possession for a while and then the Isles had it for about a third of the time, but still a while and no shots, missed shots or blocked shots were generated (from what I remember live). Now take a Jeff Carter type shift for the Isles instead of the possession time they had where a player went down the wing, fired it high and wide and it went back to the Flyers. That would lead to a positive Corsi number for the Isles (all else equal), whereas the Flyers possession would result in nothing.
It's still taken in context. There's other ways to use Corsi, and people use it in other ways, which is why you get Corsi Rel, and Corsi Rel QoC.


You're also singling out one or two shifts, which is not the intention of Corsi (or any advanced number) to start with.

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03-02-2012, 09:31 PM
  #66
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You're also singling out one or two shifts, which is not the intention of Corsi (or any advanced number) to start with.
Good luck.

I tried pointing that out to him by referencing the bell curve.

Instead, I got his life story as some appeal to authority instead of a legitimate response.

Him: "Teams like Detroit don't care about Corsi because they do true puck possession instead of shots from the perimeter."
Me: "Detroit was 2nd overall in team Corsi 2010-2011."
Him: "I traded stocks."
Me: "Okay."

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03-03-2012, 12:56 AM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Good luck.

I tried pointing that out to him by referencing the bell curve.

Instead, I got his life story as some appeal to authority instead of a legitimate response.

Him: "Teams like Detroit don't care about Corsi because they do true puck possession instead of shots from the perimeter."
Me: "Detroit was 2nd overall in team Corsi 2010-2011."
Him: "I traded stocks."
Me: "Okay."
ZZZZZZZZZZ Really?

Detroit finishing 2nd "proves" something. Anaheim was dead last in corsi and finished 9th overall. Can you explain that logically? Does either "prove" one is a better puck possession team?

If a team wanted a possession stat, they would do what the nhl did in the 90s. Track zone time in each.

The rest was the point that if you had a model who's premise was faulty to begin with, than the results are gong to be faulty as well.

Have you made an argument at all? Please put one forth, I a dying to here it.

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03-03-2012, 01:02 AM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
It's still taken in context. There's other ways to use Corsi, and people use it in other ways, which is why you get Corsi Rel, and Corsi Rel QoC.


You're also singling out one or two shifts, which is not the intention of Corsi (or any advanced number) to start with.
I was trying to give examples of style of play. Ie. dump and chase / cycling team vs. a team that generates chances off the rush etc. Ie. a coaching system has an effect, not just one or two shifts.

Corsi can be used for generating opinions based on counting blocked, missed and shots as equals together in and of itself. That is it. I would have less issues with shots used rather than Corsi. In either case, I do not think it shows possession. That is it. I am not disputing all "advanced stats".

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03-03-2012, 01:02 AM
  #69
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03-03-2012, 02:57 AM
  #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
It's still taken in context. There's other ways to use Corsi, and people use it in other ways, which is why you get Corsi Rel, and Corsi Rel QoC.


You're also singling out one or two shifts, which is not the intention of Corsi (or any advanced number) to start with.
Here are some articles on advanced stats if anyone cares.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178766/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178777/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2178781/

Outside of flaw (IMO) that corsi treats all shots equally and that it does not show puck possession, anyone can go to behindthenet.ca is look at players over the years to see how many are not consistent between years, yet alone teams when a player is traded. Bloggers choose particular stats to "prove" their points. IMO they are not proving anything.

(Also, from the articles the Pens use more advanced analysis than what is simply available on the internet.)

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03-03-2012, 04:39 AM
  #71
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1hr10min of nhl execs (including Stan Bowman) talking about advanced stats at a MIT conference. A lot of it is interesting in terms of hockey talk, goalies, arbitration,etc.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=704

~corsi not mentioned once.

~quantifying shot quality and type of shot is done by teams or they want it. Nothing to indicate teams treat shots, missed shots and blocked shots the same in analysis.

~quality of competition is used (GKJ), but it does not appear to be corsi based.

~1hr01min: Pens saying we need more on puck possession.

My view is that corsi fails as a basis for the analysis these bloggers (and some posters) perform to "prove" their points and it does not measure puck possession. Advanced stats have value as discussed in the conference IMO, I am not bashing them.

If someone can give me a reason why that is not the case, I am open to hear it.

.... and I await a sarcastic response by Downie.

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03-03-2012, 07:16 AM
  #72
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Yes, I have even more. Corsi and team statistics.

The following site has Goals, Shots, Fenwick and Corsi for teams.
http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/201...1_archive.html

The data below will be from that. The following article includes a comment on the strong relationship between goal differential and winning.
http://hockeyanalytics.com/2008/01/t...-hockeynomics/

If we look at Goal differential vs shot differential vs Fenwick differential vs Corsi differential we get the following tables for Even Strength, Even Strength Close and Even Strength Tied:


GF-GA SF-SA FF-FA CF-CA
ANA -16 -260 -424 -603
ATL -14 -140 -161 -318
BOS 46 22 21 42
BUF 4 117 86 120
CAR -11 -189 -259 -190
CBJ 5 56 73 61
CGY 6 129 212 221
CHI 9 202 271 285
COL -18 -65 -150 -240
DAL 8 -235 -246 -310
DET 23 186 296 418
EDM -23 -252 -397 -451
FLA -13 -38 -48 -14
L.A 15 58 140 209
MIN -2 -306 -425 -555
MTL 6 169 290 328
N.J -27 84 117 168
NSH 8 -66 -78 6
NYI -38 -201 -337 -480
NYR 5 0 54 -70
OTT -44 1 -20 20
PHI 40 108 65 -23
PHX 14 -16 -30 81
PIT 7 144 161 241
S.J -2 145 242 321
STL -7 71 166 235
T.B -2 220 285 233
TOR -21 -122 -180 -155
VAN 33 102 174 226
WSH 9 76 102 194

Close GF-GA SF-SA FF-FA CF-CA
ANA 4 -138 -236 -393
ATL -11 -92 -134 -218
BOS 16 26 53 59
BUF -1 37 6 18
CAR -15 -164 -222 -185
CBJ 1 63 98 100
CGY -4 71 114 161
CHI 8 170 228 275
COL -20 -49 -88 -197
DAL -3 -168 -171 -188
DET 15 75 113 183
EDM -19 -218 -322 -409
FLA -12 -54 -67 -82
L.A 6 30 55 129
MIN -5 -181 -265 -312
MTL 6 65 126 144
N.J -12 33 52 75
NSH 9 16 38 105
NYI -23 -137 -233 -345
NYR -7 -42 -1 -87
OTT -19 0 -22 2
PHI 40 149 156 143
PHX 6 41 43 105
PIT 12 134 151 176
S.J 7 101 184 221
STL 1 23 72 114
T.B 9 187 227 186
TOR -2 -95 -163 -132
VAN 14 105 200 266
WSH -1 12 8 86


Tied GA-GF SF-SA FF-FA CF-CA
ANA 6 -64 -116 -177
ATL 0 -43 -71 -130
BOS 9 15 24 32
BUF -4 -10 -16 -19
CAR -13 -127 -178 -145
CBJ 0 41 33 20
CGY -1 56 67 86
CHI -4 124 149 183
COL -9 -66 -104 -178
DAL -2 -126 -137 -151
DET 11 82 112 154
EDM -13 -136 -179 -226
FLA -3 -16 -14 -15
L.A 11 31 50 94
MIN -4 -115 -166 -194
MTL -4 55 112 114
N.J 0 62 76 115
NSH -2 44 80 108
NYI -23 -80 -120 -198
NYR -4 -27 -11 -69
OTT -14 -53 -63 -41
PHI 22 114 130 132
PHX 2 8 18 46
PIT 3 92 137 150
S.J 11 31 73 113
STL 13 12 60 67
T.B 7 79 89 51
TOR -6 -70 -157 -153
VAN 16 86 141 217
WSH -5 1 -19 14

Adding blocked shots in the first case with the Flyers is meaningless and certainly does not show anything to do with possession IMO. Simplifying to Tied or Close still leads to Anaheim with a positive goal differential but negative shots, Fenwick and Corsi.

I do not see what Corsi shows as a team stat vs shot differential or goal differential. It is clear from the above article and video that Detroit and the Pens do not use it as a possession statistic.

Corsi Relative was designed to be an improvement on a player's +/- when analysed 5v5. Player analysis done with it as a basis for a be all and end all ignores that shots, blocked shots and missed shots are not equal and it ignores special teams. Carle's PP numbers last year were horrible: 2 assists in 2:18min/game PP time and yet bloggers write about his value with Corsi stats that support their case because his 5v5 numbers are significantly better.

The entire point of this was to take these "proven" opinions with a grain of salt.

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03-03-2012, 08:21 AM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillDineen View Post
1hr10min of nhl execs (including Stan Bowman) talking about advanced stats at a MIT conference. A lot of it is interesting in terms of hockey talk, goalies, arbitration,etc.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=704

~corsi not mentioned once.

~quantifying shot quality and type of shot is done by teams or they want it. Nothing to indicate teams treat shots, missed shots and blocked shots the same in analysis.

~quality of competition is used (GKJ), but it does not appear to be corsi based.

~1hr01min: Pens saying we need more on puck possession.

My view is that corsi fails as a basis for the analysis these bloggers (and some posters) perform to "prove" their points and it does not measure puck possession. Advanced stats have value as discussed in the conference IMO, I am not bashing them.

If someone can give me a reason why that is not the case, I am open to hear it.

.... and I await a sarcastic response by Downie.
When you're excited that someone posted a link to an hour long video of hockey executives discussing advanced statistics at MIT you know you're a geek lol.

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03-03-2012, 08:37 AM
  #74
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JVR is a good player. He could very much turn into John Leclair but a trade still should be considered. The Flyers have currently 7 mil in salary next season, 12 if they LTIR Pronger, to sign 3 defensive positions and Jagr and Voracek. They also have 9 top 9 forwards(if you through in Talbot) currently signed for next year without Jagr or Voracek even on the books. Even without bringing back Jagr, a forward needs to go. JVR has a big cap hit and a lot of trade value. If they can pull off a Carter/Richards like deal where the Flyers move one asset for multiple good assets, trading JVR should definitely be considered. Or if you move him straight up for a young defensemen with potential, like Bogosian or OEL, they also should do it.

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03-03-2012, 08:44 AM
  #75
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Bill, in fairness, I promise you I will sort through all that (seriously). This is a subject I enjoy and I'm willing to examine all views.

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