It may seem premature to start discussing next season already, but the combination of injuries (making the prospect of this seasons playoffs seem frightening), and Bryzgalov's recent improvement (giving me a small amount of hope for the future)...
I wanted to get everyone's opinion on how this team will look next year.
I used the CapGeek calculator to try and figure out what could happen.
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
Claude Giroux ($3.750m
Jakub Voracek ($3.000m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m)
Brayden Schenn ($0.900m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Daniel Briere ($6.500m)
Sean Couturier ($0.930m)
Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Pavel Kubina ($3.250m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Nicklas Grossman ($3.600m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Matt Carle ($4.500m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.737m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.666m)
Sergei Bobrovsky ($0.900m)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,541,944; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,758,056
Things you'll notice:
-Jagr allowed to walk
-Pronger assumed to be on LTIR and not returning/retiring
Last edited by bryzgalovsky*: 03-05-2012 at 11:38 AM.
Well, who should they bring in? Apart from Nabokov the options are terrible.
Is Hovinen ready?
There will always be options, and teams with too many goalies.
Leafs: Reimer and Gustavsson, but Scrivens and Rynnas looking for a chance. The Monster might walk as UFA, IIRC.
Ottawa: Just got big Bishop from St. Louis. With Andersen carrying them, where does that leave Lehnert?
Getting a backup isn't a problem, if the right deal is there for Bob. Frankly, he can play another year as backup and will still be RFA, so there is no need to rush. LA, Boston and Van have held on to better prospects Bernier, Rask and Schneider, we don't HAVE to trade Bob.
It may seem premature to start discussing next season already, but the combination of injuries (making the prospect of this seasons playoffs seem frightening), and Bryzgalov's recent improvement (giving me a small amount of hope for the future)...
I wanted to get everyone's opinion on how this team will look next year.
I used the CapGeek calculator to try and figure out what could happen. Here's what I would like to see:
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Jaromir Jagr ($3.000m) - at $3.3 mill this season, but said money wouldn't be an issue in resigning, so $300k off shouldn't be a problem
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) - hopefully fully healed
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m)
Jakub Voracek ($3.000m) - small raise for potential, hasn't put up the numbers for a big pay day yet in my opinion
Sean Couturier ($1.375m)
Daniel Briere ($6.500m)
Matt Read ($0.900m)
Maxime Talbot ($1.750m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Pavel Kubina ($2.750m) - major discount, but he said he wanted an extension here
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Nicklas Grossman ($3.000m) - has been more than solid, this might not be enough to keep him here but i can dream
Marc-Andre Bourdon ($1.000m) - small raise if he can prove good enough to be a starter
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.666m)
Niko Hovinen ($0.950m) - or any other solid free agent goaltender
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,229,444; BONUSES: $2,805,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,070,556
Things you'll notice:
-Matt Carle allowed to walk (I don't hate him, but I like big defenders)
-Bobrovsky traded for picks/prospects to be replaced by free agent or Hovinen in the future.
-Pronger assumed to be on LTIR and not returning/retiring
Shouldn't Schenn's hit be about 1.4million lower?
I thought his 3.1 was an oddity brought on by this being the last year of the CBA. If that's the case, and if we assume that bonuses won't be folded into the cap number, his number should be much lower, right?
True, I just thought it would be a good way to get some future considerations and free up cap space since we have at least 4 players we need to resign.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry44
And I still think they will resign Carle.
It seems like they will. They're pretty high on his blocked shots stats, and I'm not excited about it.
But at what price? If they let Jagr and Voracek walk to sign Matt Carle, I will be ill.
I thought his 3.1 was an oddity brought on by this being the last year of the CBA. If that's the case, and if we assume that bonuses won't be folded into the cap number, his number should be much lower, right?
I'm really not sure. I just went by the numbers CapGeek has, I guess they could be wrong.
Hopefully someone with more knowledge on the subject can clear that up.
Unless Lilja is traded he's the 7th D-man. 35+ contract means your not getting rid of the cap hit unless hes traded.
Kubina's price is low as you mentioned and maybe he does want to stay but I would think he would cost 3-3+ mil to resign.
Glad people are finally giving up on the idea of signing Suter. Honestly because of that I'm thinking the Flyers will try hard to keep Carle and that will probably be at the expense of one of Grossman or Kubina.
Unless Lilja is traded he's the 7th D-man. 35+ contract means your not getting rid of the cap hit unless hes traded.
Kubina's price is low as you mentioned and maybe he does want to stay but I would think he would cost 3-3+ mil to resign.
Glad people are finally giving up on the idea of signing Suter. Honestly because of that I'm thinking the Flyers will try hard to keep Carle and that will probably be at the expense of one of Grossman or Kubina.
Though I wouldn't want either to happen, I honestly think it makes more sense to let one of Jagr or Voracek go instead.
I mean they traded for Grossman and Kubina at a time when all of the other defensemen (apart from Pronger) were healthy, which means they were candidly admitting that Carle, Timonen, Coburn, and Meszaros were not good enough.
It's hard to imagine them going to back to that defense.
Apparently the bonus for games played was only in this year of his contract.. After he missed the first game it became Unattainable and became a 1.7m cap hit
Next year that bonus shouldn't be there so his cap hit should be 3.1m
Apparently the bonus for games played was only in this year of his contract.. After he missed the first game it became Unattainable and became a 1.7m cap hit
Next year that bonus shouldn't be there so his cap hit should be 3.1m
Unless there is a bonus cushion and his cap hit would be his base salary, which is 900k. I don't know why there wouldn't be a bonus cushion again, it worked well and I never heard anyone complain about it.
Well, who should they bring in? Apart from Nabokov the options are terrible.
Is Hovinen ready?
Backup goalie's don't need to be all-stars. That is why they are backups. I don't know who they should (or will) bring in, but I can say that paying $2.5 million to have essentially two starters on the team is not a good allocation of cap space. You could probably snag a backup in the hypothetical trade for Bob. A pick and the team's backup goalie for Bob would do the job.
I'm assuming Hovinen will play a year in the A before he plays in the NHL, but I suppose if he rips it up like Bob did that could all change.
Looking at a list of UFAs there are plenty of people that could be had for far less than $2.5 million. Keep in mind these are backups, not starters...
Hedberg
Clemmensen
Auld
Conklin
Biron
Raycroft
Sabourin
I doubt any of these guys are looking for a big raise should they hit the open market, but these guys would all be pretty solid backups in the $1 million range. They may not be as good as Nabakov, but they are backup goalies, they aren't supposed to be on the same level as your starter.
I think there will be a bigger turnover than what you expect, Homer always tries to upgrade the team, your team gets worse by losing Carle without replacement.
If we re-sign Jagr one top-nine forward will be moved for a defenseman, I expect one of vanRiemsdyk, Simmonds or Voracek to get traded. We have eleven top nine forwards, if healthy we have to play two at the fourth line.
Regarding Jagr, think Teemu Selanne. Last offseason the only other UFA player in the 80 point range got $6.7MM (Brad Richards) while Selanne signed at $4MM, roughly 60%. Jagr will be around 60 points this season, Laich had 60 points two years ago and got $4.5MM (7,5% of the upper limit). Expecting an upper limit of $69MM a 60 point player in his prime should get around $5.2MM, if Jagr takes a paycut similar to Selanne expect something around $3.2MM. That's the lowest I can see.
Your figure on Voracek is good. A young 45 point winger with upside on a short contract costs between 4% and 5% of the upper limit (Kostitsyn '11, Wheeler '11, Voracek '11). Using a $69MM upper limit its aroun $3MM.
Kubina and Grossman are both 20min defensive defensemen. Kubina should be a bit cheaper due to his age. Marc Methot signed for $3MM last year, Jonathan Ericsson for $3.25MM, both around 5%. That would be $3.6MM for Grossman, a little less for Kubina, probably $3.2MM.
I would offer Bobrovsky around $1MM for the backup job, if he can earn more in Russia he should walk, there are always capable backups available in free agency.
Last edited by Rick Deckard: 03-05-2012 at 10:06 AM.
I think there will be a bigger turnover than what you expect, Homer always tries to upgrade the team, your team gets worse by losing Carle without replacement.
If we re-sign Jagr one top-nine forward will be moved for a defenseman, I expect one of vanRiemsdyk, Simmonds or Voracek to get traded. We have eleven top nine forwards, if healthy we have to play two at the fourth line.
Regarding Jagr, think Teemu Selanne. Last offseason the only other UFA player in the 80 point range got $6.7MM (Brad Richards) while Selanne signed at $4MM, roughly 60%. Jagr will be around 60 points this season, Laich had 60 points two years ago and got $4.5MM (7,5% of the upper limit). Expecting an upper limit of $69MM a 60 point player in his prime should get around $5.2MM, if Jagr takes a paycut similar to Selanne expect something around $3.2MM. That's the lowest I can see.
Your figure on Voracek is good. A young 45 point winger with upside on a short contract costs between 4% and 5% of the upper limit (Kostitsyn '11, Wheeler '11, Voracek '11). Using a $69MM upper limit its aroun $3MM.
Kubina and Grossman are both 20min defensive defensemen. Kubina should be a bit cheaper due to his age. Marc Methot signed for $3MM last year, Jonathan Ericsson for $3.25MM, both around 5%. That would be $3.6MM for Grossman, a little less for Kubina, probably $3.2MM.
I would offer Bobrovsky around $1MM for the backup job, if he can earn more in Russia he should walk, there are always capable backups available in free agency.
If Jagr truly doesn't care about money, he'll take a bigger cut than $3.2 million to stay here. Otherwise it is unlikely that he remains IMO. Also, Bob isn't a free agent so they won't be offering anything. He's on the team unless they trade him (which I think they should do).
Though I wouldn't want either to happen, I honestly think it makes more sense to let one of Jagr or Voracek go instead.
I mean they traded for Grossman and Kubina at a time when all of the other defensemen (apart from Pronger) were healthy, which means they were candidly admitting that Carle, Timonen, Coburn, and Meszaros were not good enough.
It's hard to imagine them going to back to that defense.
If it comes to that and they choose to go D over O (which is a very smart idea) I would hope they re-sign Voracek but thats just me. Makes no sense in my eyes to let a young RFA like Voracek go for the sake of an aging Jagr. I know Jagr will probably do more for the team now (or maybe for 2yrs) but they should try their damdest to keep this young forward core together for as long as possible going forward.
If Jagr truly doesn't care about money, he'll take a bigger cut than $3.2 million to stay here. Otherwise it is unlikely that he remains IMO. Also, Bob isn't a free agent so they won't be offering anything. He's on the team unless they trade him (which I think they should do).
$3.2MM would be 60% of what his real value is ... that's a huge paycut.
Bobrovsky is a RFA, if he doesn't like what we offer he can sign with every team outside the NHL, like in Russia.
Unless there is a bonus cushion and his cap hit would be his base salary, which is 900k. I don't know why there wouldn't be a bonus cushion again, it worked well and I never heard anyone complain about it.
with the CBA set to expire, who knows what's going ot happen
