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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VII

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Old
03-05-2012, 05:36 PM
  #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
he was getting slightly less icetime prior to Nashville's first playoff season and is not gettign much this season. So his actual TOI average in the playoffs from 2004-2011 is 23:04, meaning he gets 2:24 more per game in the playoffs.

Looking at other top defensemen around the league, I don't think that this is statistically out of line.

Just looking at his own team, for example, in 2010, Pronger went up 3:00 in the playoffs. Timonen went up 3:30. Carle went up 2:30. Coburn went up 4:00.

If the average length of a Kimmo Timonen playoff game was just 66:16 then it would explain the icetime spike 100%. It is possible that his average is that high, but not likely. It's probably somewhere in the middle. So some OT can explain it partially, and the fact that #1-2 defensemen tend to start getting a larger share of the icetime in the playoffs (usually at the expense of the 3rd pairing) explains the rest. If there was a statistically significant difference here I would give it credit for sure. But I don't think there is.
Why doesn't he get credit for being a #1/2 defenseman in the playoffs? I'm a little confused about what your issue is with his icetime. He was clearly playing a ton of minutes, including heavy PK time. Surely that's more than adequate for a #6 defenseman in the ATD.

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03-05-2012, 05:41 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Why doesn't he get credit for being a #1/2 defenseman in the playoffs? I'm a little confused about what your issue is with his icetime. He was clearly playing a ton of minutes, including heavy PK time. Surely that's more than adequate for a #6 defenseman in the ATD.
I think seventies was disputing the claim Kimmo's perfectly normal postseason icetime increase (virtually all top unit skaters go up in icetime in the POs as benches shorten) is evidence of him being a big game player, which is a legitimate gripe.

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03-05-2012, 05:48 PM
  #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I think seventies was disputing the claim Kimmo's perfectly normal postseason icetime increase (virtually all top unit skaters go up in icetime in the POs as benches shorten) is evidence of him being a big game player, which is a legitimate gripe.
I guess...I mean, he played very well, which is a pretty good indication of being a big game player to me. I guess it would be really notable if he was playing 33:00 a night, but that doesn't seem reasonable to expect from Kimmo Timonen. Outside of the true top dogs in the league (Pronger, Lidstrom, Chara), I'd bet Timonen compares pretty well with that second tier of playoff defensemen since the lockout.

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03-05-2012, 05:50 PM
  #179
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No one is saying he's a poor performer or that he can't perform in the playoffs. Just that it is disingenuous to claim he's a big money player. He's a solid player who can succeed in a 3rd pairing role. No less.

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03-05-2012, 05:54 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
I guess...I mean, he played very well, which is a pretty good indication of being a big game player to me. I guess it would be really notable if he was playing 33:00 a night, but that doesn't seem reasonable to expect from Kimmo Timonen. Outside of the true top dogs in the league (Pronger, Lidstrom, Chara), I'd bet Timonen compares pretty well with that second tier of playoff defensemen since the lockout.
yeah, I'm not disputing how he played or anything, and of course being the #2 defenseman on a cup finalist is great. It's just that his rise in TOI from the regular season to the playoffs is within the statistical norm, so that in and of itself does not really serve as evidence that he's a big game player (I see no "raising his game" based on TOI)

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03-05-2012, 05:57 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
I guess...I mean, he played very well, which is a pretty good indication of being a big game player to me.
Has Kimmo played particularly well in the postseason for the Flyers?

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03-05-2012, 06:02 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Has Kimmo played particularly well in the postseason for the Flyers?
I thought he was great on their run in 2010, and for Finland in the elimination games in 2006 (as his allstar selection indicates). I thought he was good last year with Philly as well. Can't say that I've watched all his playoff games though.

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03-05-2012, 06:09 PM
  #183
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Timonen was the MVP for the Flyers from the season he got here until Pronger arrived. Not Captain Morgan or Carter. We could have survived without either of those two, but we would have absolutely fallen apart without Timonen, which we did against the Penguins in 07-08 when he had the blood clot in his his ankle. But, that problem was made worse considering Coburn was injured as well.

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03-05-2012, 06:52 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
PS. It will be hard to argue that L'équipe nationale de France won't have an advantage in goal against most team with Dominik Hasek and Chuck Rayner as their goaltending duo.
I'd have to agree with you there. And it'll be useful to keep Hasek rested for the playoffs, as he wasn't a regular season workhorse to the degree that some other goalies were (although you could argue that he worked more than most goalies in the games he did play).

I also had Rayner ranked as being the end of a "tier" of sorts. He was the last of the guys who I think could pass as a starter (albeit a very low-end one). His small playoff resume hurts him a bit, but there wasn't much he could do about. And it's not a huge issue as a backup anyways. He'll probably just be expected to play 20 regular season games and then ride the pine in the playoffs behind Hasek, which he's very capable of doing.

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03-05-2012, 07:31 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
I'd have to agree with you there. And it'll be useful to keep Hasek rested for the playoffs, as he wasn't a regular season workhorse to the degree that some other goalies were (although you could argue that he worked more than most goalies in the games he did play).

I also had Rayner ranked as being the end of a "tier" of sorts. He was the last of the guys who I think could pass as a starter (albeit a very low-end one). His small playoff resume hurts him a bit, but there wasn't much he could do about. And it's not a huge issue as a backup anyways. He'll probably just be expected to play 20 regular season games and then ride the pine in the playoffs behind Hasek, which he's very capable of doing.
Rayner can also fill in if Hasek has a mysterious injury in the playoffs.

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03-05-2012, 07:56 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
No one is saying he's a poor performer or that he can't perform in the playoffs. Just that it is disingenuous to claim he's a big money player. He's a solid player who can succeed in a 3rd pairing role. No less.
Did we watch the same 2010 playoffs? Pronger was the best Flyer but Timonen basically carried the defense whenever Pronger wasn't on the ice.

Is it also disingenuous to point to the All Star nod at the Olympics?

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Old
03-05-2012, 08:20 PM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Did we watch the same 2010 playoffs? Pronger was the best Flyer but Timonen basically carried the defense whenever Pronger wasn't on the ice.

Is it also disingenuous to point to the All Star nod at the Olympics?
My point wasn't that he wasn't good in the playoffs, that's why I said no less and not no more. Just that that metric does not demonstrate one way or another.

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03-05-2012, 08:59 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
I'd have to agree with you there. And it'll be useful to keep Hasek rested for the playoffs, as he wasn't a regular season workhorse to the degree that some other goalies were (although you could argue that he worked more than most goalies in the games he did play).

I also had Rayner ranked as being the end of a "tier" of sorts. He was the last of the guys who I think could pass as a starter (albeit a very low-end one). His small playoff resume hurts him a bit, but there wasn't much he could do about. And it's not a huge issue as a backup anyways. He'll probably just be expected to play 20 regular season games and then ride the pine in the playoffs behind Hasek, which he's very capable of doing.
- That's was my thought process as well. Dominik Hasek was not a workhouse like Martin Brodeur for example, so I wanted a good regular season backup.

- I also agree to that. Without going too specific, I would say Rayner should be ranked in betweeen 28th-to-32nd all-time, which would make him one of the worst starter in the draft. I think most stray away from him as a #1 and decide to go the 'Gerry Cheevers' route is the fact that he never won a Stanley Cup, which is defendable to a point. However, just like Roy Worters, he was great in every opportunity he got in the playoffs, even being arguably the best player of the 1950 playoffs, although he lost in the finals (he received a retro-Conn Smythe for those performances).

- And yes overpass, if Hasek get 'injured' in the playoffs, Rayner is a great backup to have

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03-05-2012, 09:07 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
- And yes overpass, if Hasek get 'injured' in the playoffs, Rayner is a great backup to have
I think the strategy against your team is to get traffic to net and run Hasek.


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03-05-2012, 09:16 PM
  #190
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I think I have a good tandem now in Connell and Chabot.

Both had GAA's under 2.00 in the playoffs (Connell an astounding 1.19), and both were, not surprisingly, two-time Stanley Cup champs.

Would anyone happen to know why Chabot's still not in the HHOF?

Found a thread in the HoH board which discusses this:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...ghlight=chabot

Nice of his grandkid to pop in.

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03-06-2012, 12:45 AM
  #191
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sorry guys, didn't realize we were this close to my pick when I took off earlier.

Lada Togliatti selects LW/D Tommy Anderson


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03-06-2012, 12:51 AM
  #192
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sorry guys, didn't realize we were this close to my pick when I took off earlier.

Lada Togliatti selects LW/D Tommy Anderson

Anderson had an intriguing career: he played all his career but two season as a LW. His first year as a defenceman was nothing special, and then won a Hart Trophy and FAST due to his excellent play at defence. This would be his last year in the league. I was tempted to draft him and uncovering if one season of All-Star play at defence on two season should make him good enough to be a regular ATD defenceman, or if he has better use as a playmaking left winger. If anything, Tommy Anderson is perhaps the best bench player available.

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03-06-2012, 12:55 AM
  #193
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Yeah my thought process on Anderson is that he'll fit in nicely with my checking line if need be, or could fit in just fine with my defense in a pinch. Probably the best utility player that was on the board at this point, though he'll likely be in my starting lineup unless I uncover something real nice here later on, which is a distinct possibility.

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03-06-2012, 12:56 AM
  #194
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Didn't he win the Hart during one of the War years? Still crazy and impressive, but you can see why he falls.

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03-06-2012, 12:58 AM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Anderson had an intriguing career: he played all his career but two season as a LW. His first year as a defenceman was nothing special, and then won a Hart Trophy and FAST due to his excellent play at defence. This would be his last year in the league. I was tempted to draft him and uncovering if one season of All-Star play at defence on two season should make him good enough to be a regular ATD defenceman, or if he has better use as a playmaking left winger. If anything, Tommy Anderson is perhaps the best bench player available.
Yeah, he's a weird one. But his usefulness is apparant, especially in a more utility role.

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03-06-2012, 12:58 AM
  #196
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
Didn't he win the Hart during one of the War years? Still crazy and impressive, but you can see why he falls.
He won in 1942.

Everyone pretty much know his credentials as a defenceman, but I would like someone to go in deep on his competence as a LW, and if he's an ATD caliber forward or not. I can say I have no idea where he stand.

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03-06-2012, 12:59 AM
  #197
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yep, 1942 I think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
He won in 1942.

Everyone pretty much know his credentials as a defenceman, but I would like someone to go in deep on his competence as a LW, and if he's an ATD caliber forward or not. I can say I have no idea where he stand.
Thankfully I have a ton of free time tomorrow, I should hopefully be able to make at least some semblance of a bio for him, obviously looking more into his time as a forward then a dman since that's how he'll likely be used.

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03-06-2012, 02:09 AM
  #198
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Reen's pick is silky modern LW Patty Marleau.

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03-06-2012, 02:13 AM
  #199
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And Hawkey Town selects Bruce Macgregor.

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03-06-2012, 05:48 AM
  #200
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thanks to MB for making my pick.

Patrick Marleau, LW/C


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