Bruce McCurdy who blogs about the Oilers on the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey blog had a post yesterday called "Trends Behaving Badly" that looked a few stats and trends. http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...ehaving-badly/
I thought I'd look at the same things for the Jets. Taking the first 32 games (so last night's Isles game isn't accounted for here) and breaking them into four 8 game segments, I whipped up these graphs in Excel. Blue = Jets, Red = opponents.
Goals for and against (minus empty netters and shootout goals):
Nice to see the Goals Against on a steady downward trend. The last 8 games includes that 7-1 loss to Detroit - if you take that out the goals against numbers are even more impressive. Unfortunately the rising trend in Goals For dropped off over the last 8.
Next is Power Play Goals For / Goals Against and Power Play Conversion Percentage:
After a pretty horrendous start, the penalty killing seems to have improved quite a bit over the last 16 games. A steady improvement in the power play dropped off in the last 8 games - mirroring the overall trend to less Jets scoring lately.
The board only allows three attachments, so I combined Average Shots For/Against and the Points Percentage graphs into one image below:
The Jets are averaging 30.25 shots per game over the first 32 games. Their opposition is averaging 30.71 spg. Both stats are pretty close to the 30 mark for 3 of the 4 segments (holding opposition to around 25 shots in the first segment, and Jets averaging just over 35 shots in the third segment are the outliers).
Let's hope that Points Percentage trend keeps up. It's a little hard to read, but Games 1-8 = .313, Games 9-16 = .438, Games 17-24 = .563, Games 25-32 = .688.
Goals for and against (minus empty netters and shootout goals):
Goals For has leveled off at 2.25 goals per game. That's going to have to go up, I think. That would rank the team 28th in GF if that was the average for the entire season so far. Goals against is still good with only 20 given up over the 8 game stretch - and 7 of those were against the Habs in that 7-3 loss! Without that MTL game, the Jets average 13 goals against in 7 games (1.86/game). Even including MTL, they allowed only 2.5/game.
Next is Power Play Goals For / Goals Against and Power Play Conversion Percentage:
PP conversion percentage of almost 30%...unfortunately, the number of power play opportunities is down, so it doesn't result in a lot more PP goals. Over games 33-40, the Jets' PK was an impressive 7.7%. Wow.
The board only allows three attachments, so I combined Average Shots For/Against and the Points Percentage graphs into one image below:
Shots for/against stabilized, with opponents narrowly outshooting the Jets.
Points percentage would've looked a lot nicer with wins in Toronto and Montreal last week.
Here's one more graph - number of short-handed situations and powerplays for the Jets.
That league average is for the entire season, not the last couple of weeks. I couldn't figure out a quick way to calculate times shorthanded and powerplays in 120 game segments. I suspect that the league-wide number of penalties is trending lower since the start of the season.
One question, would it be possible (usefull) to show the amount of wins in each of the 8 game segments on each chart?
That way, we could compare how the stats affect the amount of wins?
Here are the GF/GA, Powerplay/Shorthanded, and SF/SA charts with wins added. Wins use on the scale on the right side of the chart so the bars look about the same in each one.
Looks like there might be a correlation between winning and scoring more goals and allowing fewer!
Improving the penalty kill is helping the team win...more than scoring PP goals? Small sample...
I don't see a pattern here - but the stats guys at Behind the Net say that shots for and against matter the most in terms of success. They count shots plus misses together I think, though. I didn't plot that data...
No doubt this last stretch has been a tough one. Not since the first 16 games of the season has the team had a stretch this bad (.438 - tied with games 9-16).
Anyone who's watched will know that scoring goals has been an issue. With only 16 goals in their last 8 games (2.00/game - didn't even need Excel to figure that one out) it's the team's worst showing offensively so far, and continues a decline in goal scoring that started at the beginning of December.
The team's average shots per game are up, while shots against continue their slow trend down...this is good news. The Jets have played well recently - outshooting their opponents in 4 of their last 5 games...still the goals aren't going in like you'd hope.
Winnipeg is holding down opposition scoring when killing penalties - the PK has looked really solid after a bit of a shaky first 16 games. Since then the team's been letting in just under 0.44 PPGA per game - killing penalties at around 88% efficiency in their last 32 games (which would be good for 3rd best in the league as it stands right now). The Jets' powerplay has come back down to earth after the last segment of close to 30% efficiency. Thanks to a few power play goals in recent games, the team is 16% in their last 8.
Ok, here's the chart for Goals For and Goals Against for the 2011-2012 Jets and the 2010-2011 Thrashers. Right axis is goals, left side is the scale for the Points Percentage (PPCT) bars.
The Thrashers had an easier time putting the puck in the net, but wow did the defensive wheels ever come off in the second half of the season. The offense seemed to cool off around the same time as well. Defensively, the Jets have been better for the most part...and defense wins championships AMIRITE!? Of course, you have to make the playoffs first...
Speaking of, to get to 90 points this season, the Jets will need their last 33 games to be slightly above that .600 line. It seems like a pretty tall order, since they've only managed one 8-game segment above that level so far this season.
Another octet of games has come and gone. A new chart this time...to highlight the Jets' woes in terms of shooting percentage. With just 8 goals in their last 8 games, they're converting shots to goals at an unsustainably low rate of exactly 4%. (Shootout goals and empty netters don't count).
The team is keeping opponents shooting percentage below league average, so at least that's good. Regression to mean will kick in at some point and we can expect to see more goals going in...probably at both ends.
Here's the Goals-For/Goals-Against chart superimposed over point percentage and compared to the 2010-2011 Atlanta Thrashers. The first 24 games are where last season's team excelled. By this point of the season, the Thrashers were in a tailspin. The team this year has been equal or better than last year since the 25 game mark (December 1) in terms of points percentage. I have to say, though...having only scored 8 times in the last 8 games and coming away with 8 points, no team this year has done so much with so little. Very very lucky to be .500 over the last 8.
Finally, here's the power play for and against stats. Remember a few weeks ago when the Jets were operating at 30% efficiency and their opponents weren't even converting at 10% on the PP? Well, the tide has turned since then. The last 8 games have seen almost an exact reversal with the Jets going 2/20 = 10% and the opposition going 5/23 = 21.7%. And imagine how grim things would've looked if we hadn't gone 2/3 last night in the last few minutes of the 3rd period. Anyway, regression to mean, and all that, so PP and PK should be better in the coming games.
The team probably needs at least 32 points in their last 26 games to make the playoffs. So a .615 point percentage the rest of the way. If shooting percentage comes back up to around 8% and the PP/PK both improve, hey, why not?
Posted this in another thread - posting here for posterity. Some Jets vs Thrashers stats - trying to see why the teams are performing as they are at various times during the year.
One thing that stands out for me are the GF vs GA - the Jets version of the Thrashers are playing a much more disciplined, locked down game, in comparison to the Thrashers. At this stage last year, the Thrashers were giving up 3.10 GA, and slumped to a 2.88 GF. While the Jets could be doing better, they're at least keeping things close, and giving themselves a chance to win games - a bit more of a "playoff style game" mentality (other than the crazy aberation that was the Pens game).
Here are the charts updated to include games 57-64 (so the Edmonton game isn't reflected in these).
What did I say last time about regression to mean? Both For- and Against- shooting percentages jumped way up as the Jets found their scoring touch and got themselves into some higher scoring affairs. The median shooting percentage at this point for the Jets is around 7.71%, and for their opponents approximately 8.52%. League average is 8.93%. I guess we can't expect the torrid goal scoring pace to continue forever...look for things to fall off a bit both offensively and defensively over the last stretch (toward that 8% line).
Here's the Goals-For/Goals-Against chart superimposed over point percentage and compared to the 2010-2011 Atlanta Thrashers. The 2011-2012 Jets continue to outperform last year's team. It was the second best segment point percentage-wise this season, gleaning 10/16 for .625 - not bad, since they only scored 1 more goal than their opponents over these 8 games.
The Jets will have to continue at even better than this pace to get to 90 points and have a shot at the playoffs (17 games remain: 22/34 = .647. So 11-6-0, 10-5-2, 9-4-4 or better). And really, that probably won't be enough.
Washington has 19 games remaining and 69 points. They need to play .553 to get to 90 points: an uninspiring record of 10-8-1 or 9-7-3 will be enough for them.
Florida has 20 games remaining and 72 points. They need to play .450 to get to 90 points. 9-11-0 or 8-10-2. And they play the dregs of the league over that period. Barring an epic collapse, I think the Panthers are a lock for the playoffs and probably the SE Division Championship.
Over the latter half of the last 8, the Jets powerplay lurched to life...in a big way. In games 61, 62 and 63 the Jets were 7/11, for an impressive 63.6% efficiency! That's dragged down by the 0/9 powerplay in games 57-60.
Big game tonight against the Panthers - must win for the Jets. They can afford maybe 5 losses over the last 17 games with games coming up against Nashville, Vancouver, Dallas, Pittsburgh, the Rangers. 8 at home, 9 on the road. Maybe don't go picking up any extra shifts to pay for your playoff tickets just yet...
Projections for the Jets and for each player - Jets are currently on an 88pt pace, but this is based on historic data. If they keep their winning % high, then this will obviously rise. Good 'ol Scheifele - still on pace to score 3 for the year!
OK I'm going to break this up and write it in a few sections, otherwise it will be a TLDR wall of txt. Once again red indicates negative, grades are from 0-10 and are based on were the player plays, IE Bryan Little is ranked against other 1st line Centers, Jim Slater is ranked against other 4th line Centers.
So first CENTERS Center-AGE-HEIGHT-WEIGHT-G-A-P-+/--GRADE
Jim Slater-30-6.00-200-13-8-21-9-9.5
Jim Slater was bloody fantastic. He wins faceoffs 54.4%, he plays the toughest minutes among all the forwards, in fact Slaters Rel QoC of .900 is .335 higher than the next closest C. He ranks 58th league wide in this category and 18th in the eastern conference. He also ranks 4th in Defensive zone faceoffs starting 71.5% of his shifts in the defensive zone, again its amazing he scored any goals at all this year much less 13! His Corsi On is, bad infact its terrible at 20.11 and obviously his Rel Corsi is also quite horrid at 27.9 but given the minutes he logging and his starting position this is totally fine. His GA/60 is not bad at 2.62 but that's mostly due to his ON ICE SV% of 921. 4vs5 he is again playing the toughest players, and plays the most minutes. Hes getting a poor 829 SV% otherwise he would be one of the best PKers in the league. Getting another PKing forward to help him would do wonders. Resigning Jim Slater is the most important job for Chevy this season, he is so important to the Jets its not even funny. He is one of if not the best 4th line centers in the NHL, Noels played him in the toughest situations at home and without Slater's tireless effort the Jets would not have won nearly as many games at home. In fact the inability to match Slater's line up against the top players on the road is one of the huge reasons the Jets struggled on the road.
Bryan Little-24-5.11-185-24-22-46-11-6.0
Little was fine this season, his rank is low but again these ranking are base on his position as a 1st line C hes a 6.0 if you dropped him down to the 2nd line hes probably closer to a 7.5-8.0. Put up a decent amount of points but I am wherry of his personal 14.8% SH%, his On Ice SH% was a more reasonable 8.10% so that's pretty average. Hes playing the 4th toughest minutes which makes sense his Rel Corsi QoC is .565, Noel used his line as the 2nd tough minute grouping at home +6 at home. On the road where he was unable to get Slater out as much the Little line was used in a much tougher role 17 on the road. He lacks some size you would like to see down the middle, however if you could surround him with bigger players down the middle this would be mitigated. Plays a solid puck possession game with a On Corsi of 10.42 and Rel Corsi of 13.4, very good improvement from last year with an increase of 4.83. His On Ice Corsi ranks him 3rd on the team, while his Rel Corsi ranks him 3rd as well. On the PP hes been decent, putting up a +ve Rel Corsi again hes hurt by playing above his skill range. On the PK hes been decent, hes playing a group of PPer's a tier below the other guys on the PK but he plays 1.48 minutes per game and does it well above average, an excellent option as the 3rd PK C. Final area that needs improvement is his faceoff skills hes at 49.6% which is fine, perhaps getting a real 3rd line C to take some tougher draws would help but getting a little better would defiantly help. Overall his play has been fine for a player that is playing in a tier one to high for his skill level. He would seriously benefit from the Jets acquiring ether a 3rd line C to play tough minutes, or a top line C to play above him.
Alexander Burmistrov-20-6.00-180-13-15-28-4-5.5
Another player who is in a position he just does not have the skill for at this time, again if he had been in the 3rd C role a grade of 7.0 would have more likely but I just can't go any higher given what he was able to do with easy minutes. Burmi played the 3rd worst competition on the team ahead of only Fehr and The Stapler, Noel routinely hid the Burmi line from tough opponents and in some games his ice time was severely reduced due to this, note he was also protecting Kane in the same way hence their pairing together. Given Burmi's age and development I have no problem with this method, however I would have liked to see a better performance given how easy his minutes were. He also benefited from starting 58.7% of his shifts in the offensive zone, again given these numbers I expected more his On Ice SH% wasn't even that bad at 7.71% and his personal % was fine at 10.6%. He did play an excellent puck possession game putting up a 7.24 Corsi ON and a 7.9 Rel Corsi so there is plenty of hope in that department. His Faceoff % was a pretty bad 44.0% but given his age its hard to expect a lot more, last year he was at 41.5% so that's a nice improvement. He did make very nice progress from last year upping his Corsi by a huge 14.7 while playing slightly better competition. Overall from a puck possession perspective he made excellent strides and I think next year will be a big one for Burmi, I won't get into his development or how he was handled I will say that given the easy minutes he played I expected a lot more. However he did make excellent progress as a player so perhaps the results will come as he continues to progress. I question his ultimate ceiling I think it may be closer to a 50 PT 2nd line C than a true 1st line pivot but I am no expert and could very easily be wrong. At this point I'm looking at Grabovski as the best comparable if he can get to that level I would be more than happy with that. One area he has been lights out in is the PK, he plays the 2nd toughest minutes next to Slater but does it amazing better his Rel Corsi on the PK is 31.2!! while play Rel QoC of 3.812! these numbers are extreme due to the PK but if you look at the numbers of each player Burmistrov stands out as a well above average PKer.
Nik Antropov-32-6.06-245-15-20-35-0-6.5
Antropov was fine in the #3 center spot, he put up a decent number of points given his TOI, overall he was a very vanilla player he put up very average numbers playing average competition and played an average defensive game. His size is of value given the Jets lack of size down the middle. His Rel Corsi QoC was 0.080 good for 9th overall on the team, however his Ozone start % was also 6th highest at 56.7%. This lead to a Corsi on of 1.96 good for 7th overall and 3rd among centers. His Rel Corsi was 1.50, at this point in his career hes pretty constant and this is the 2nd out of the last 3 years he has put up numbers relatively close to this. His FO% was a decent 48.3% not bad for a guy that's only a center half the time. On the PK he was decent he played decent competition and was above average at it, overall again very vanilla. At this point in his career I think we know what we are getting, while I don't think Antro does anything particularly well he also doesn't do anything poorly ether. As he continues to get older his skating will become more and more of an issue and I think his contract will expire at about the right time given his decline. Overall hes fine on the 3rd line, while I think the Jets could use an upgrade at #3 center he could easily be moved to the wing and play the same game. I hate to say it again but he is a completely average 3rd liner hopefully the Jets can grab someone in the next year that can replace his minutes but be above average in one way or another to replace him once he moves on.
I won't go into detail on the guys that played less than 20 games for the Jets but heres a quick blurb on each of them. Ben Maxwell he is an AHL depth player, has been given chances with several teams and has never been able to hack it, could be a late bloomer or a 4th liner but the Jets have good depth on the 4th line. Patrice Cormier Looked good in his call ups and apparently played well when given tough minutes in the A, he does have good size at 6.02-215 and brings a gritty game to the C position. He should be a candidate to take the 3rd center role and if everything breaks right for him he could be the big tough minute center the Jets are looking for, to early to tell however. Aaron Gagnon AHL depth player nothing more. Mark Scheifele Looked like a rookie in his brief audition will be given another look in camp but most likely headed back to the OHL for another year of development.
The Center position is a strange on for the Jets, they have clear needs but also descent depth. They need to add a clear #1 to bump Little down the depth chart, however those are hard to come by and given the current market may be impossible to acquire. Another more addressable need is a 2nd tough minute center to pair with Slater in the bottom 6 weather its Cormier or a guy brought in via UFA or trade the Jets need someone that can take some of the heat of Slater and on the road Little. Getting someone who can do this will go a long way to improving the Jets road record and PK on the road.
OK its time for the barren wasteland that is the Jets Right Wingers
Blake Wheeler-25-6.05-205-17-47-64-3-8.0
Wheeler was great, his breakout season included playing close to a PPG pace for the second half of the season, as well as beating his previous points total by 19! He played the 2nd toughest competition among the RWers although that's not saying much Rel Corsi Qoc of .319 the only one head of him was Chris Thorburn at .631. He Played a very good puck possession game with a Corsi ON of 9.37 and a Rel Corsi of 12.6, he also increased his Corsi ON by 4.07 from 2011-12. His personal SH% of 8.2 is actually a little low, while his ON ICE is 7.94% also a tad low but not as bad. He is not as strong on the PP putting up a positive Rel Corsi but a very low 8.43% ON Ice SH, this could be bad luck or it could be an indication that the PP unit he was on was not getting quality scoring chances on the PP. Overall there is not a lot to say about Wheeler he played great, and the indicators say that had he been a little luckier he would have been even better. Perhaps mixing up the PP unit he is on would help him create more points with the man advantage. Next year Wheeler is sure to see more of the opposing teams top defenders and continuing to play his game against tougher competition will be important to his continued development other than that I see no reason he should not continue to be a solid top 6 player from the right side.
Kyle Wellwood-28-5.10-180-18-29-47-3-7.0
Wellwood wins the PP$ contest among UFA signings a great pickup by Chevy, if I was ranking this based on salary he would have gotten a 10. Overall he was a decent but not spectacular 2nd liner his goal total are not going to repeat themselves his personal SH% was 19.4%, and although he has shown an ability to shoot at a high % lifetime 14.1% counting on a guy to shoot 20% 2 years in a row is not usually a great idea. His ON Ice was a much more respectable 7.84% so even if you adjust his goal totals for 14% shooting it would still be 42 points. He played poor but not terrible competition Rel Corsi QoC of .105 his Corsi was very good at 12.65, he has shown an ability in his career to abuse lower competition Corsi On of 22.12 last year while playing poor competition. His career has fallowed this pattern of being able to abuse poorer players while losing his effectiveness when put against even slightly above average players. He fit in well with Burmi and seamed to be a good aid on his wing at times given the development path he is likely to fallow having Welly for another few seasons could work out well for the Jets. He was OK on the PP nothing special however. Given the lack of RW depth the Jets have resigning him seams like the logical move, he can continue to see below average competition with Burmistrov while he develops.
Chris Thorburn-28-6.03-230-4-7-11-6-7.0
The T in the GST line played well above average for a 4th line winger although his point totals were low he still contributed to the team by eating tough minutes with the GST line. He had the 3rd highest Corsi Rel QoC at .631 he also had the 3rd lowest Ozone start % at a mere 38.8%. Like the rest of the GST line his Corsi ON was poor at 17.70, but just like the rest of the line given the circumstances this is just fine. Thor saw a new low in his personal SH% as well as a rather poor ON Ice SH% of 6.64% a return to his regular mid teens production would seam likely given these percentages. He was used sparingly on the PK but when he was he played above average players and produced results similar to Slater, while not being a reliable top PKer he is more than capable to fill in when one of the main guys is in the box or otherwise unavailable. The things at were said about Slater can be said about Thor as well, the Jets would not be where they are today without the 3 member of the GST line, and although he is the weakest member of this line he is still very important to the Jets. Signed for another 2 years at a very nice cap hit (.867) he can continue his role on the 4th line, or become the 13th forward if the RW depth improves.
Antti Miettinen-31-6.00-190-5-8-13-5-4.0
This was a waiver pickup that did not go so well, although he played well in his final 10 games the first 35 were not up to the level the Jets needed from their 3rd line RW spot. Antti played average competition at .131 good for 7th among the forward group his Corsi ON was a poor 5.94 with his Rel Corsi being a equally as bad 10.8. He did have the 5th lowest Ozone start % but at 47.8% its not nearly low enough to explain the poor numbers. His percentages were low with a personal of 8.6% and an On Ice of 6.00% but even an increase in scoring would not have fixed his poor puck possession numbers. He was given some PP time and the numbers were not great 5.8 Rel Corsi the saving grace there being that he contributed to the 2nd best On Ice SH% at 18.75%, given the small sample size however its hard to give him to much credit for that. On the PK he was well above average, although he was playing quite poor competition comparably Rel Corsi Qoc 1.059. Overall he just did not show enough to warrant a roster spot next year, his buyout is very low http://capgeek.com/buyout_calculator...06&buyout_d=15 hopefully he will be bought out, even looking at his stats from over the last 3 years Corsi Rel, Corsi, and Rel Corsi QoC have all been falling for 3 straight years now. Is there a chance he can turn it around? Yes but I don't think the likely hood is all that high.
Eric Fehr-26-6.04-212-2-1-3-6-3.0
Even as the 5th RW he gets a terrible grade, this was not a good year for Eric, he looked slow and out of shape most of the year, and although he suffered from terrible percentages 3.7% personal and 2.74% ON Ice theres no getting around how poor he played. He played the 2nd weakest opponents at a Rel Corsi of 3.64 he did put up a positive Corsi against these scrubs 1.49, as well as a positive Rel Corsi 3.3. He also got the benefit of starting in the Ozone 55.8% of the time. There is not a whole lot to say about him he played awfully and when your getting scratched for Tim Stapleton you know something isn't going right there is no way the Jets qualify him at 2.2M. That being said he does have 2 things the Jets badly need a big body, and a right handed shot given a full offseason to train and regroup perhaps he can get back on track. He is still young at 26 and there is time to turn it around in WSH he showed an ability to provide decent secondary scoring and be solid on the PP two areas the Jets are lacking. Hopefully the Jets can work out a 1 year deal at a .8-1.1M cap hit to let him try and re-establish himself.
The Stapler-29-5.09-160-11-16-27-2-7.0
As a 13th forward Timmy was great, came in when they needed him and played decently. A lot of his points are coming off the PP something he should be nowhere near next year. Statistically he played like a 13th forward lowest Rel Corsi QoC at .549 his Corsi ON was also bad at 6.41 all while starting in the offensive zone 56.7% of the time. If you were looking for him to get more playing time next year I'm going to stop you right there, Timmy has value in one area and that's his ability to line up anywhere and fill in when a guy goes down. He is just not a full time player at the NHL level he was great on the PP when filling in but this is mainly due to his 19.75% ON Ice Sh% and his personal 14.9% shooting. I have no problem with the Jets brining him back at the minimum 600K or whatever it is but to play the 13th forward role, if he get into more than 20 games its a sign things have gone terribly wrong.
Others in this group that didn't hit the 20 game mark were Carl Klingberg who looked good in his brief 6 game audition but needs more time in the A to refine his game. Also fan favorite Spencer Machacek who looked great in 13 games on the back of a 26.32% ON Ice SH% he should be given a good look in camp next year to fill one of the right side spots for the Jets.
Overall I found myself trying to write more about these guys but being unable to do so. They are pretty much all cut and dry players, other than Wheeler who's success looks completely legit based on the underlying numbers. So what are we left with? Well the Jets have one top 6 guy in Wheeler and one bottom 6 guy in Thorburn, the needs are the same they have always been a top 6 guy to replace Welly once he eventually needs to be upgraded and a bottom 6 guy who can play some tough minutes. Really not much to say about this group.
RW Depth Chart:
1. Blake Wheeler
2. Kyle Wellwood-UFA
3.Antti Miettinen
4. Chris Thorburn
5. Spencer Machacek
6. Carl Klingberg
Next up LW which thankfully looks a whole lot better.
OK its time for the barren wasteland that is the Jets Right Wingers
Blake Wheeler-25-6.05-205-17-47-64-3-8.0
Wheeler was great, his breakout season included playing close to a PPG pace for the second half of the season, as well as beating his previous points total by 19! He played the 2nd toughest competition among the RWers although that's not saying much Rel Corsi Qoc of .319 the only one head of him was Chris Thorburn at .631. He Played a very good puck possession game with a Corsi ON of 9.37 and a Rel Corsi of 12.6, he also increased his Corsi ON by 4.07 from 2011-12. His personal SH% of 8.2 is actually a little low, while his ON ICE is 7.94% also a tad low but not as bad. He is not as strong on the PP putting up a positive Rel Corsi but a very low 8.43% ON Ice SH, this could be bad luck or it could be an indication that the PP unit he was on was not getting quality scoring chances on the PP. Overall there is not a lot to say about Wheeler he played great, and the indicators say that had he been a little luckier he would have been even better. Perhaps mixing up the PP unit he is on would help him create more points with the man advantage. Next year Wheeler is sure to see more of the opposing teams top defenders and continuing to play his game against tougher competition will be important to his continued development other than that I see no reason he should not continue to be a solid top 6 player from the right side.
Kyle Wellwood-28-5.10-180-18-29-47-3-7.0
Wellwood wins the PP$ contest among UFA signings a great pickup by Chevy, if I was ranking this based on salary he would have gotten a 10. Overall he was a decent but not spectacular 2nd liner his goal total are not going to repeat themselves his personal SH% was 19.4%, and although he has shown an ability to shoot at a high % lifetime 14.1% counting on a guy to shoot 20% 2 years in a row is not usually a great idea. His ON Ice was a much more respectable 7.84% so even if you adjust his goal totals for 14% shooting it would still be 42 points. He played poor but not terrible competition Rel Corsi QoC of .105 his Corsi was very good at 12.65, he has shown an ability in his career to abuse lower competition Corsi On of 22.12 last year while playing poor competition. His career has fallowed this pattern of being able to abuse poorer players while losing his effectiveness when put against even slightly above average players. He fit in well with Burmi and seamed to be a good aid on his wing at times given the development path he is likely to fallow having Welly for another few seasons could work out well for the Jets. He was OK on the PP nothing special however. Given the lack of RW depth the Jets have resigning him seams like the logical move, he can continue to see below average competition with Burmistrov while he develops.
Chris Thorburn-28-6.03-230-4-7-11-6-7.0
The T in the GST line played well above average for a 4th line winger although his point totals were low he still contributed to the team by eating tough minutes with the GST line. He had the 3rd highest Corsi Rel QoC at .631 he also had the 3rd lowest Ozone start % at a mere 38.8%. Like the rest of the GST line his Corsi ON was poor at 17.70, but just like the rest of the line given the circumstances this is just fine. Thor saw a new low in his personal SH% as well as a rather poor ON Ice SH% of 6.64% a return to his regular mid teens production would seam likely given these percentages. He was used sparingly on the PK but when he was he played above average players and produced results similar to Slater, while not being a reliable top PKer he is more than capable to fill in when one of the main guys is in the box or otherwise unavailable. The things at were said about Slater can be said about Thor as well, the Jets would not be where they are today without the 3 member of the GST line, and although he is the weakest member of this line he is still very important to the Jets. Signed for another 2 years at a very nice cap hit (.867) he can continue his role on the 4th line, or become the 13th forward if the RW depth improves.
Antti Miettinen-31-6.00-190-5-8-13-5-4.0
This was a waiver pickup that did not go so well, although he played well in his final 10 games the first 35 were not up to the level the Jets needed from their 3rd line RW spot. Antti played average competition at .131 good for 7th among the forward group his Corsi ON was a poor 5.94 with his Rel Corsi being a equally as bad 10.8. He did have the 5th lowest Ozone start % but at 47.8% its not nearly low enough to explain the poor numbers. His percentages were low with a personal of 8.6% and an On Ice of 6.00% but even an increase in scoring would not have fixed his poor puck possession numbers. He was given some PP time and the numbers were not great 5.8 Rel Corsi the saving grace there being that he contributed to the 2nd best On Ice SH% at 18.75%, given the small sample size however its hard to give him to much credit for that. On the PK he was well above average, although he was playing quite poor competition comparably Rel Corsi Qoc 1.059. Overall he just did not show enough to warrant a roster spot next year, his buyout is very low http://capgeek.com/buyout_calculator...06&buyout_d=15 hopefully he will be bought out, even looking at his stats from over the last 3 years Corsi Rel, Corsi, and Rel Corsi QoC have all been falling for 3 straight years now. Is there a chance he can turn it around? Yes but I don't think the likely hood is all that high.
Eric Fehr-26-6.04-212-2-1-3-6-3.0
Even as the 5th RW he gets a terrible grade, this was not a good year for Eric, he looked slow and out of shape most of the year, and although he suffered from terrible percentages 3.7% personal and 2.74% ON Ice theres no getting around how poor he played. He played the 2nd weakest opponents at a Rel Corsi of 3.64 he did put up a positive Corsi against these scrubs 1.49, as well as a positive Rel Corsi 3.3. He also got the benefit of starting in the Ozone 55.8% of the time. There is not a whole lot to say about him he played awfully and when your getting scratched for Tim Stapleton you know something isn't going right there is no way the Jets qualify him at 2.2M. That being said he does have 2 things the Jets badly need a big body, and a right handed shot given a full offseason to train and regroup perhaps he can get back on track. He is still young at 26 and there is time to turn it around in WSH he showed an ability to provide decent secondary scoring and be solid on the PP two areas the Jets are lacking. Hopefully the Jets can work out a 1 year deal at a .8-1.1M cap hit to let him try and re-establish himself.
The Stapler-29-5.09-160-11-16-27-2-7.0
As a 13th forward Timmy was great, came in when they needed him and played decently. A lot of his points are coming off the PP something he should be nowhere near next year. Statistically he played like a 13th forward lowest Rel Corsi QoC at .549 his Corsi ON was also bad at 6.41 all while starting in the offensive zone 56.7% of the time. If you were looking for him to get more playing time next year I'm going to stop you right there, Timmy has value in one area and that's his ability to line up anywhere and fill in when a guy goes down. He is just not a full time player at the NHL level he was great on the PP when filling in but this is mainly due to his 19.75% ON Ice Sh% and his personal 14.9% shooting. I have no problem with the Jets brining him back at the minimum 600K or whatever it is but to play the 13th forward role, if he get into more than 20 games its a sign things have gone terribly wrong.
Others in this group that didn't hit the 20 game mark were Carl Klingberg who looked good in his brief 6 game audition but needs more time in the A to refine his game. Also fan favorite Spencer Machacek who looked great in 13 games on the back of a 26.32% ON Ice SH% he should be given a good look in camp next year to fill one of the right side spots for the Jets.
Overall I found myself trying to write more about these guys but being unable to do so. They are pretty much all cut and dry players, other than Wheeler who's success looks completely legit based on the underlying numbers. So what are we left with? Well the Jets have one top 6 guy in Wheeler and one bottom 6 guy in Thorburn, the needs are the same they have always been a top 6 guy to replace Welly once he eventually needs to be upgraded and a bottom 6 guy who can play some tough minutes. Really not much to say about this group.
RW Depth Chart:
1. Blake Wheeler
2. Kyle Wellwood-UFA
3.Antti Miettinen
4. Chris Thorburn
5. Spencer Machacek
6. Carl Klingberg
Next up LW which thankfully looks a whole lot better.
Alright time for the Left Wingers. A lot more to like on this side of the Ice once again players are ranked against other players at their position and red indicates negative.
Andrew Ladd-26-6.03-205-28-22-50-8-7.5
There were a lot of questions regarding Ladd coming into the season could he replicated the success he had in ATL, could he continue to be the leader of a young team? Ladd delivered while not a true 1st line player Ladd did play at top 6 levels and did a lot of things that go unnoticed. "Laddy" played the 5th toughest competition among the Jets forwards behind only the members of the GST line and Bryan Little a Corsi Rel QoC of .487 basically the high end of average. He did get the benefit of starting 57.4% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but given how Noel tried to use his top 6 this is not really that surprising. Given those minutes Ladd produced the highest Corsi ON on the team at 12.74 along with the highest Rel Corsi at 17.1. His Corsi ON improved by 8.42 from 2010/11 and his Rel Corsi improved by 7.6 he was flat out dominating the puck possession game putting up numbers that compare with the best in the NHL. In fact Ladd's Corsi ON ranks him 31st in the NHL and only 1 player out of the 30 ahead of him is from a non playoff team. His Rel Corsi ranks him 7th in the entire NHL this time hes the only non playoff player in the top 10. Next time you hear someone complaining about an Andrew Ladd giveaway ask them if they are counting how many times he generates scoring chances or keeps the puck in the offensive zone. His percentages all look good, his personal mark of 10.6% is more in line with his career average of 11.0% and his ON Ice was a respectable 7.55%. What looks really good to me is that even though he saw a 4.3% decline in personal shooting percentage he still managed to put up a very similar number of goals. A part of his game that gets overlooked is his work on the PK, he plays relatively good PPers Rel Corsi QoC of 2.183 that's 4th among players that averaged at least 30 seconds of PK time per game yet he had the 2nd highest Rel Corsi at 28.9 he was easily the 2nd best PKer after Burmi. On the PP he was above average but only slightly Rel Corsi of 3.8 he only scored 4 PP goals this year as opposed to 9 in 2010/11 and the strangely low On Ice Sh% of only 12.16% has a lot to do with that, although it was low last year as well at 12.36%. Overall it was a great season for Ladd he has further enhanced his reputation as a force on the LW playing a dominant puck possession game and providing top 6 offense. His ultimate home will be the 2nd line as Kane produces more goals with less Ice time but having a player that can give you top 30 puck possession numbers and add 25 goals from the 2nd line is a heck of an asset to have. Add in the leadership, the long term deal at a good cap hit and the Jets are looking very good at one LW spot for the next several years.
Evander Kane-20-6.02-195-30-27-57-11-8.5
What a season for Evander Kane, his first 30 goal season was fun to watch and was a huge boost to the Jets a team desperate for a real sniper on the wings. Starting with his percentages his personal SH% of 10.5% looks fine, its above his career average but with such a young player I put very little in that measure. His On Ice Sh% was on the high side of average at 9.39% but not to the extent that it would cause worry. Kane did benefit from the Claude Noel sheltering program seeing the 4th easiest competition Rel Corsi QoC of .028 however a quick check indicates that teams tended to send out their grinders against Kane in an effort to shut him down resulting in a lower number. Since this strategy seams to have failed we should be ready for teams to through out their big guns against Kane to see if he can handle players that are a threat in the offensive end. On top of playing opponents that need a GPS to find the offensive zone Kane also revived a 57.6% Ozone starting position. Given those minutes Kane put together a decent puck possession season with a Corsi On of 6.21 good for 6th among the forward group, as well as a Rel Corsi of 8.7 good for 5th among forwards. He is not as good a puck possession player as Ladd, however that's not really his game. The player I compare Kane to most is Phil Kessel during his Boston days, his age 20 and 21 seasons, Kessel put up similar Corsi numbers to what Kane did this year. Nether of them really dominates the puck and they tend to shot before a real cycle can be established but both players are so deadly off the rush and they both find the good areas of the Ice to wait for the opportunity to shot. This is fine not every player needs to be a puck possession player as long as you surround Kane with effective players, like Boston with Kessel, they can effective in their role. All that being said he did improve his Corsi On by 6.85, and his Corsi Rel by 8.0 so he is showing progress at least in that area. On the PP Kane was good, he put up a Rel Corsi of 4.4 4th among the forwards while playing with the 2nd unit. His On Ice Sh% was also good at 17.27% resulting in 6 PP goals tied for the team lead even though he saw less 1st unit time and less time on the PP overall than the Co-leaders Little and Wheeler. Kane is a very easy player to like from a statistical perspective he does all the things you need to do to score goals in the NHL and the Jets should give him every opportunity to do so. He's a much better scorer than Ladd and should take his spot on the 1st line and 1st PP unit next season, Little and Wheeler are both good enough puck possession players to mesh well with Kane. Kane will have to adjust to the increased level of competition hes sure to see next year but if he can adjust and if he gets the extra minutes I see no reason why 30 or even 40 goals is not attainable.
Tanner Glass-28-6.01-210-5-11-16-12-8.5
The 2nd most important member of the GST line Glass was nearly as integral to the Jets season as Jimmy Slater, I have no idea why people don't want to resign him or put him in the "don't care" category. Glass played the 2nd toughest minutes on the team a mark of .892 only .008 behind Slater, who lets remember ranked 18th in the eastern conference he was a ways ahead of Thor beating him by .261. He also finished 2nd in defensive zone starts at 65.9%, despite this he put up a slightly better Corsi On than the Thor at 17.16 he did lose the Rel Corsi putting up a 24.0 mark. Again these are quite terrible numbers but given the job the GST line was asked to do is perfectly fine. On the PK Tanner played similar competition to Andrew Ladd Rel Corsi 2.297 however was not nearly as effective giving up a Rel Corsi of 34.4. Of players who killed more than 30 seconds per game he was the 6th best while playing the 3rd toughest minutes, together Slater and Glass were a decent PK pairing but one that could use one of the other groups to take some of the workload off of them. Overall Glass has been a great pickup and has completely turned his career around here in Winnipeg, I said Slater was the most important resigning for Chevy this offseason and I will go ahead and say that Glass is the 2nd most important. The GST line simply is not able to handle what Noel asks of them without Glass he is an important member of the team and needs to be here long term.
I guess that's it, one of the RWers and Antro filled the last LW spot most of the year, theres not really anyone from the minors that we got to see so there isn't really a whole lot more to write about here. What are the LW needs? Same as they have been all season a LW that can come in and play some tough minutes to take heat of the GST line and to match up on the road and take some heat off the Little line. The only guy in the minors that could fit this role is Cormier but he needs to be tried at center before they resort to that. Maybe Antro can move over the the LW next year? Somehow Chevy is going to have to add a LW for next season.
Ask and you shall receive! Here we go the defensemen review.
Zach Bogosian-21-6.03-215-5-25-30-3-8.0
Before I start on Zach I would just like to take a quick look at his development over his 4 NHL seasons.
Age-GP-TOI(5v5)-Rel Corsi QoC-Corsi ON-GAON/60-Ozone Start%
18-47-14.62-0.048-4.28-3.06-43.6
19-81-16.68-.290-3.42-3.02-44.7
20-71-17.57-.556-6.98-2.98-47.9
21-65-17.25-.591-0.91-2.68-49.4
Thats pretty good looking progress over a 4 year period, and other than a blip in the radar last year Zach has been playing tougher and tougher competition and getting better and better at it. GA/60 is down 4 straight years Corsi is up in 3 of the past 4 years. He is starting in the offensive zone more and more but considering its still sub 50% I'm not that worried about it screwing the numbers. Bogo faced the 2nd toughest competition among defensemen slightly ahead of Toby Enstrom, his Corsi ON ranks him 3rd on the team and his Rel Corsi was 3rd among the Jets D(Clitsome was actually 3rd but didn't make the cut only 12 GP for the Jets). He along with Ron Hainsey had the lowest Ozone starting%'s Ron was a little lower overall. His GA/60 was 3rd worst among the team but he suffered from a very poor ON Ice SV% 910. On the PP he played very well on the 2nd unit Corsi Rel 17.2 and contributed to the 4th highest PP SH% at 13.22%. His personal SH% of 3.3% was very low for the 2nd straight year while his SH/60 continued its steady march upwards at 2.3 per. On the PK Bogo played the Jim Slater role, playing the hardest competition of the regulars while logging the most minutes per game his Corsi Rel of 18.2 was poor but given the usage not unexpected, adding a LH dman who is actually decent at killing penalties would help Zach. Overall Bogo made excellent progress he showed that last year was the exception not the rule, the next step will be for him to take on tougher competition and prove that he can continue his excellent play against tougher opponents. He needs a better partner, I know he has stated he likes playing with Ron but Hainsey has not shown an ability to play the tougher minutes at any point in the last 4 seasons. Zach's development may be the most important variable in the teams short term plan, if he can be a top pairing player and shut down the oppositions top players on a nightly basis that opens up a world of possibilities with Buffy and allows the Jets to bring one of the most difficult to defend setups in the NHL. If Bogo is not that player than the team will need to take a step back in my opinion.
Tobias Enstrom-28-5.10-180-6-26-32-6-8.0
Toby gets critic-ed for a lot of reasons that are not his fault, hes to small, hes not physical ect. The fact is that Toby is a darn good defensemen and the Jets need him if they want to compete for a playoff spot. Toby put up his 3rd straight year of >.50 PPG one of only 8 players to do this over the last 3 years. The others being Kieth(CHI), Boyle(SJS), Pronger(PHI), Edler(VAN), Weber(NSH), Chara(BOS), Yandle(PHX), that not a bad group to be associated with. Toby is also getting better and better at playing tougher competition, (Rel Corsi ON-Corsi ON) .018-1.7, .417-2.22, .558-11.18! What these numbers show is a guy that is continuing to get better, at 28 he is older but given that this was only his 5th NHL season (Bogo is going into his 5th next year) seeing development is not unexpected. Among the Dmen he ranks 3rd in Rel Corsi QoC and 1st in Corsi ON and Rel Corsi, he and Buffy are tied for the highest Ozone starting % at 53.4% so this explains some of the dominance but not all of it. He was 2nd worst in GA/60 but once again was let down by Pavy with a 906 SV%. On the PP he struggled when moved away from the top unit putting up a Rel Corsi of 5.6, he did however contribute to the best ON Ice Sh% among Dmen at 14.86%. On the PK Noel used him against the worst PPers from the other team by far, worst Rel Corsi among the Dmen but he did fine with that assignment putting up a Rel Corsi of 7.1 in 1.15 min/60. Overall it was a solid season for Toby he continued to show excellent puck management skills something some of the other defensemen lack in, hes also the Jets only true PMD although Bogo is getting better in that department. Toby will never drive the bus in a defensive grouping but he will be one of the better complimentary players out there, given the size the Jets have on the backend having one smaller player doesn't concern me nearly as much as it normally would. His usage on the PK was fine, however he needs to be on the 1st PP unit the Jets looked lost without him out there and hes just not as good without a elite trigger man like Buffy out there with him (Bogo is not that yet). As for his 5v5 play the Jets have a choice to make, they can keep him playing this level of competition and let him dominate, or they can ramp it up similar to Bogo and see if he can handle it, which direction they want to go will dictate what type of defensemen they target in the off season.
Dustin Byfuglien-27-6.05-265-12-41-53-8-7.5
Dustin was a polarizing figure in Winnipeg this season some days he was the most talented player on the ice sometimes he was lazy and stupid. Love him or hate him most fans admit that the Jets would not be where they are without him, be that a positive or negative, and the fact is that they are right. Buffy lead the way in Rel Corsi QoC among Dmen posting a mark of .674 as mentioned in Toby's portion he shared the highest Ozone start% at 53.4% Given these minutes Buffy dominated the puck possession game finishing 2nd in both Corsi 8.58 and Rel Corsi at 13.1. He just missed the top 30 for Corsi ON among Dmen ranking 31st in the NHL (Toby 14th) still an excellent mark. His Rel Corsi QoC increased by .285 from 10/11 while his Corsi On was 1.96 points, his offensive zone start % also dropped by 2%. Decent declines overall but given the increase in difficulty of his minutes not unexpected, he was still above average and showed he could handle the tougher minutes 5v5. On the PK Buffy was used sparingly only .41 minutes per game of PK time and was deployed against the 3rd worst PPers, however he was flat out dominate at it his Rel Corsi was 53.7. Small sample size is most likely playing a part here but the fact that he showed something on the PK does give me some hope, trying him on the PK next year might not be the worst idea possible. On the PP its pretty easy to see how dominate he is and the numbers back it up 2nd highest Rel Corsi at 6.8 and the 2nd highest On Ice SH% at 13.45%. Buffy is a hard one to judge, the numbers say he was dominant but watching him there are problems in his game. When learning about sports statistics the fist thing your generally told is to discredit what you see and trust the numbers, your eyes will lie the numbers will not. That being said I think he is somewhat to blame for his team low 896 On Ice SV% and the fact that 2 years in a row in front of the same goalie he has had the lowest On Ice SV% is somewhat telling. Can it be explained totally by luck? It can but putting that together with my personal observations leads me to believe that Buff is giving up better than average scoring chances against. I don't think Buff is a bad defensemen but I do think that they need to change up how they are deploying him, if they want him to be the top guy out there eating the tough minutes then they need to go out and get a shutdown partner to ride shotgun with him. Alternatively they can drop him back to the level he played last year and let Bogo take the tough minutes doing it this way he can ether stay with Toby or play with another offensive Dman. Again how they view Bogo will determine a lot about how they proceed this offseason.
Ugg this one is long ill break it up into 2 parts in part 2 The Hains, Stuart, and the others.
Mark Stuart-27-6.02-215-3-11-14-4-8.5
Everybody loves Mark, even I love Stuart and his stats kinda suck. I do have one bone to pick with the general fan base and that is this: There is a difference between skill and consistency some fans seem to forget this, while Mark may be the most consistent defender the Jets have on the roster he is by no means the most skilled, in fact he is probably the least skilled. Now that being said he played his role perfectly he was everything you could want from a bottom pairing Dman and he has one above average skill he brings to the table. That being his toughness, or truculence as Burkie would put it. Now on to the stats Mark played the 5th worst competition with a Rel Corsi QoC of .103 and started in the offensive zone the 5th fewest times at 50.2%. Given those minutes Mark put up a 3.42 Corsi On and a 6.2 Rel Corsi, ranking him 6th and 7th respectively among the Dmen. Compared to other 5th Dmen this is actually pretty good, and really only being out shoot by 3.42 per 60 minutes when the bottom pair is on the Ice was not to terrible. Hopefully playing with players not named Randy Jones and Mark Flood will help Stuart out a bit next year. Mark does score some points by putting up the 5th best GA/60 at 2.62(2nd among the top 5). Stuart did ok on the PK playing the 5th toughest competition he was badly out played Rel Corsi 34.1, he did kill off 2.78 minutes per game however 2nd highest on the team. Overall Mark was an above average 5th defensemen, he showed improvement in his competition and Corsi numbers for the 2nd straight year and added toughness to a Jets team that at times was lacking it. He played above his head at times, while Toby and Hainsey were out he was the 2nd LH on the depth chart. Ultimately he is what he is a bottom pairing Dman and he puts up bottom D numbers at 1.7M hes a decent deal and he goes out and does his job consistently can't really ask for much more than that.
Ron Hainsey-31-6.03-210-0-10-10-9-7.0
Ron Hainsey was another player that disappointed me a bit, he like Antropov is average at everything a good at nothing. He had a down year offensively 0% personal shooting and a rather decent 8.55% On Ice SH%. This is the 3rd straight year of declining PPG totals although his PP time has also declined explaining most of this. Overall he played the 4th toughest competition at .552 and had the lowest Ozone start% at 46.9%, for this he generated a Corsi ON of 3.36 5th and a Rel Corsi of 7.4 good for 6th among the Dmen. Given the tougher minutes and poor staring position these numbers are slightly below average, not bad by any stretch of the imagination but defiantly not good ether. Hainsey did win the GA/60 race with a very low 2.05 however this was mostly due to Pavs deciding Hainsey bought him the nicest Christmas present and giving him a On Ice SV% of 927 a full 14 points higher than the next closest regular Jets Dman. Hainsey was given very little PP time and wasn't exactly good at it, I could get into the stats but when Stapleton takes your spot on the PP you know something isn't going well. On the PK Hainsey was OK once again playing the 3rd most minutes per game at 2.50 against the 4th toughest competition, he had the 5th best Rel Corsi at 18.9, once again pretty average. The theme once again for the Hains is average and for a guy making over 4.5M this season I guess I expected a little bit more. The Jets would be fine having Ron as the 4th defensemen next year but if the opportunity to improve presents itself the Jets should take it.
The others, Randy Jones was terrible he played enough games to meet sample size requirements but I will save you the reading time, he was very very bad and I hope he leaves. Mark Flood was worse than Jones so I'll just leave it at that. Grant Clitsome only played 12 games with the Jets so its hard to separate out the stats overall he put up numbers similar to Stuart playing worse competition there's some potential there but need to see more of him in Noels system before I make a judgment on him for now hes a better option than Jones or Flood as the 7th D. Postma and Kulda didn't get enough game action to draw any conclusions but they should both be in play for the 6th D spot.
Overall the defense is strong but needs some tweeks, the continued development of a very young group will help I do think they need to add someone on the left side to replace Hainsey. They also need to figure out what they have in Bogo going forward as that will determine a lot of the planning, they could add a RH 6th Dman if Postma and Kulda can't hack it.
D Depth Chart:
1. Toby Enstrom
2. Buffy
3. Zach Bogosian
4. Ron Hainsey
5. Mark Stuart
6. Grant Clitsome
7. Randy Jones - UFA
8. Mark Flood - UFA
9. Paul Postma - RFA
10. Atrus Kulda - RFA
Ondrej Pavelec-24-6.03-220-.906-2.91-7.0
Let me start this off by saying that Pavs deserves a lot of credit, there were many a night when the Jets were holding on based solely on Pavelec. That being said if the Jets are going to make the playoff Pavs needs to be better, especially on the road. Last year Pavs had a .914 SV% split into a .924 home vs .903 road this was worrying this season .906 total .917 home vs .895 was downright bad. At home the Jets were allowing 28.1 EV and PP shoots per game, on the road 30.21 a difference of 2.11 shoots per game. Giving up more shots on the road is troubling but not 22 points of SV% troubling are the scoring chances really that much better on the road then they are at home? There were a few blow out games that happened on the road but even factoring them in it still doesn't add up. Pavs gave up 19 more road goals in 4 less games! I give Pavs a ton of credit but he has to be better on the road if the Jets are going to see the playoffs plain and simple. Overall he posted a .917 EV SV% decent but not great last year he was .928 which is much closer to average, hopefully the Jets can get some help and tighten up the team defense to get this back up. His PP SV% was .862 a good improvement from last years .852 the Jets need to improve the PK in front of him 20th in SA/60 on the PK at 51.4. Pavs continued to have short handed issues but given his struggles with breakaways this is understandable, really 90% of SH goals are the fault of the forward or D on the ice not the goaltender. A save here or there would be nice but I'm not going to place any blame on Pavy for that. The Jets did cut their shots against by 1.3 going from 31.4 to 29.1 per game good for 11th league wide, they also cut their PK shots against from 52.5 to 51.4 good for 20th league wide. Pavs played way more games than he ever has before so there is some fatigue factor there, his month by month SV% defiantly looks like a guy who got tired .914, .951, .922, .880, .886, .885 hopefully next year the Jets spread the work out a bit more. Pavs played well at times but poorly at others, he needs to work on his consistency I am willing to put a lot of the blame on fatigue but not all of it. I still think Pavs is an above average goalie, and a combination of a down year, fatigue, and a team playing poorly in front of him contributed to this years issues. However like the rest of the young team I will be looking for positive development in his game next year.
Chis Mason-35-6.00-195-.898-2.59-7.0
Mason had a decent season, he like Pavy was great at home .931 and good awful on the road .880. He started only 14 games which is far to few and whoever the backup next year is needs to get in 20-25 starts to give Pavy a break. Masons .900 EV SH% was bad but he made up for it with a excellent .883 PP SV% and a .929 SH SV%. Overall an improvement from last year and other than the road SV% its hard to ask a lot more from your backup. If he is willing to take a pay cut and come back then that would work otherwise the Jets can find someone on the UFA market.
Overall the Jets have a good young goalie they just need him to be more consistent, the difference between SV% in wins and losses is staggering .945 in wins .878 in losses, one of the largest differences among starters in the NHL.
The biggest thing for this team would be for Pavy to take the next step and become an above average goalie, this will help the team more than any free agent signing or trade. Apart from that I see the needs as fallows
1. #3 C who can play tough minutes
2. Bottom 6 Wingers who can play tough minutes
3. LH defense who can again play tough minutes
4. 2nd line scorer
5. #6 defensive D
6. Back up goalie
This is a young team with a lot of good pieces and the needs reflect that, while nice high upside talent will help any team, I believe the Jets can at least contend for a playoff berth if they add some seasoned players that are capable of taking the heat off of the younger guys that are still developing. This is a season review thread so I will not post my trade ideas here but I am going to make a post in the trade thread with a few moves that I believe solve most of those issues listed above.
