Click "NHL Futures 2011/12 Stanley Cup". Then make sure you have "fractional" odds selected. That will give you the most up-to-date odds for the Preds in Vegas.
Nashville will be a likely 5th seed in a very tough conference.
Without home ice, their odds against a likely first round opponent in the Blues or Red Wings is somewhere around 1.5 to 1 and 2 to 1. This comes out to around 0.33 (33.3%) - 0.4 (40%).
Second round is a tough matchup against likely Vancouver, which would put Nashville between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 without home ice. So somewhere in the range of 0.25 (25%) and 0.33 (33.3%)
Third round against a likely big, tough team after a grind through two rounds, again without home ice. Against SJS I would have Nashville at around 0.37 (~37%) and against a team like Phoenix/Dallas without home ice, I would have it pretty close to even money 0.50 (50%).
In the Cup finals, it could be a huge number of teams so I think a reasonable average would be something around 0.45 (45%), assuming an average extrapolation of performance from the teams in that conference; this accounts for Nashville having a higher frequency of running into the top of that conference (giving the opponents home ice) since they are, naturally, the better teams.
Summing up this very, very rough model gives the odds at roughly:
0.33*0.25*0.37*0.45 = 0.01387 (~1.39%) to win the cup on the low end
and
0.4*0.33*0.37*0.45 = 0.02198 (~2.20%) to win the cup on the high end
So thats about 45.5 to 1 on the optimistic side and 72.1 to 1 on the pessimistic side to win the cup. At around the original 50 to 1, it would have been a decent bet to make, since it includes juice (vig) also; but I would definitely pass at 18:1.
Also, this is a very, very crappy, simple model that I came up with in the last 10 minutes (doesn't account for a ton of very key, important variables) but it gives you a rough idea of where the odds come from and how 18:1 is very likely not worth it.
Click "NHL Futures 2011/12 Stanley Cup". Then make sure you have "fractional" odds selected. That will give you the most up-to-date odds for the Preds in Vegas.
Thank you, sir.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PavelDatsyuk
18:1 is really not worth the shot.
Nashville will be a likely 5th seed in a very tough conference.
6:1 to win the West. I might throw $50 on that this weekend.
If you are going to put $50 on Nashville to win the West then you are much better off going all the way at 18:1 . You're literally lighting money on fire if you bet on Nashville to come out of the West at 6:1 and not to win the cup at 18:1. Shop around, I'm sure you'll be able to find better than 18:1 at some point also.
I also believe that their odds to win the cup will actually increase by about ~0.5-1% if they drop to the 6th seed instead of the 5th seed, which is huge; it's the difference between something like 55:1 and ~36:1 odds, so I would wait to see if they are in a position to fall to 6th before I lay a bet down.
If you are going to put $50 on Nashville to win the West then you are much better off going all the way at 18:1 . You're literally lighting money on fire if you bet on Nashville to come out of the West at 6:1 and not to win the cup at 18:1. Shop around, I'm sure you'll be able to find better than 18:1 at some point also.
I also believe that their odds to win the cup will actually increase by about ~0.5-1% if they drop to the 6th seed instead of the 5th seed, which is huge; it's the difference between something like 55:1 and ~36:1 odds, so I would wait to see if they are in a position to fall to 6th before I lay a bet down.
That's just my advice though
Thanks for the advice. I get where you're coming from...but I'm just a casual sports gambler, it's just $50. Not taking it this too seriously, just makes everything more exciting. I've drilled a few prop bets on "First to score in the game" this year. Hornqvist won me $120 (put $10 on 12:1) earlier this season and I was at the game, that was pretty awesome. And yes, I will surely shop around. The 18:1 figure is just what I heard on the radio right after the trade deadline.
If I lay $50 on Preds to win West and they do....it's not lighting the money on fire now is it?
