People need to stop saying the Blues match up better vs this or that team yadda yadda crap.
People, it doesn't amount to Jack Crap what you did in the regular season or who you did it against.
When you get to the playoffs, throw all that crap right out the window.
Whoever you face in the playoffs is the team you have to beat period!
Stop with the nonsense. People saying the Blues can beat anyone except Nashville in a 7 game series is just ignorant.
If you want to talk the talk, you gotta walk the walk. Let's see the Blues do something in the playoffs before everyone crowns them champions.
Just stop with the mindless talk about who they do or don't match up against. Ask the last Blues team that won the Presidents trophy how they matched up against the #8 seed.
Can't we take educated guesses of how we think the match-ups will fall and how we think they will go? Clearly their are lesser teams and better teams in the playoffs and in my opinion match-ups do matter. Blues vs Nashville and Blues Vs. Phoenix do not seem like the same thing to me. I agree, they still have to play the games and anything can happen but it doesn't mean that task at hand is exactly the same.
Yes, the team shouldn't care and the team should actually WANT to play the best, but that doesn't mean that that is the most advantageous path for success.
Of-course this thread has no bearing on who they will play but there is NOTHING wrong with fans speculating about possible outcomes. Even if we think that they may not win it doesn't mean that we are not fans. It is part of sports, I could make an argument that this entire website is based upon speculation and what ifs.
There is a total of 15 series during the stanley cup including the finals. Last year there was an upset in 5 of those match-ups. That's not too bad. In 2010 though 7/15 series were won by the "worst" higher seeded team. In '09 it was 6/15. Again 5 in '08 and '07. Another 7 times in '06.
So over the last 6 years that's a total of 90 playoff series. Out of those there has been an upset 35% of the time. That's quite a bit.
Go back and look at the playoffs in '06 in the West.
#8 beat #1, #7 beat #2, #6 beat #3 and for the sweep #5 beat #4.
My point is you will never know just based on regular season or by a team's seed what will happen in the playoffs. There's 0% chance the Blues org and coaches want team A over team B. And, if they do then they've lost before it starts.
I was agreeing with most of what you said up until this post. Talking about "preferred match-ups" is nonsense to a degree, because you can't rely on what has happened in the regular season meetings. However, that argument only really holds water if people are talking about it solely from a "ohe we beat then, but lost to them" standpoint.
However, going on to talk about seeding upsets is nonsense. You can't treat all seeding upsets as equal as you have done here.
Since the lockout the #5 seed has won 7 of the 12 series' against the #4 seed.
Compare that the the fact that the #7 and #8 seeds have only managed to beat the the #1 or #2 seeds in 5 of the 25 meetings.
The importance of winning the Division is highlighted by that.
i just looked on sportsclubstats and we've only got an 11% chance at the 5th seed. We've also got a 2% better chance at having the 1/2 seed instead of the 4 seed. its still close and could go either way.
regarding 1 vs 2 seeding, its pretty much a tossup because I think that whoever ends up in the #6 spot might very well upset the #3.
Nashville upgraded their team at the deadline, which doesn't factor into the Sportsclubstats site projections. Its not hard to imagine them going on a run. I think the Blues were only 3 points ahead of them last time I looked. If the Blues go on a short losing streak, they open that door. That said, the 5th seed is the worst the Blues could end up.
I agree that its a 3-way battle for 2/4/5 with Detroit and Nashville. Chicago will be lucky just to make the 8th spot. I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies at the deadline to change their fate a great deal....while teams like Phoenix and (until recently) Calgary look to be surging. San Jose is the one team I can't quite get a read on. They have some games in hand, so perhaps they'll edge Phoenix when all is said and done.
If they keep up that 1.81 goals-against pace, the current Blues are projected to allow 29 goals in their remaining 16 contests that would put the total at 160, which would better the low mark of 164 goals allowed in an 82-game itinerary by the 2003-04 New Jersey Devils.
Back in first place in the Central with Detroit's loss to Chicago tonight. Hopefully this will be the last time I have to root for the Blackhawks, I'd really like to see them miss the playoffs.
If they keep up that 1.81 goals-against pace, the current Blues are projected to allow 29 goals in their remaining 16 contests that would put the total at 160, which would better the low mark of 164 goals allowed in an 82-game itinerary by the 2003-04 New Jersey Devils.
I think a lot of people forget that the standings on nhl.com factor in SOLs to the GA of each team. So even though it says the Blues have allowed 131 goals, it includes the 6 SOL. So the Blues have actually only let in 125 goals. So if they were to only allow 29 more goals, they'd end up with 154 against. It's just a little difference, but it makes the Blues' GA/G even more impressive.
– It's near automatic that the Blues would own a tiebreaker with Vancouver. Leading 38-34 in ROW but only separated by a point means the Blues would have to start loading up on shootout wins with only 15 games to play. Blues have won the head to head 5-4, so Vancouver has to have more ROW and that's so hard to do while only gaining exactly one point in 15 games.
– Starting just before McDonald returned, Blues have outscored opponents 48-27 last 16 games, going 12-4-0 with 10 of those games on the road. 3.00 GF, 1.69 GA. They went 7-3-0 at Nashville, San Jose, Vancouver, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Ottawa, Chicago (all playoff teams), Calgary, Edmonton, Columbus.
– I like how this road trip is structured. It starts off with an immediate back to back against Columbus, who always play sandpapery against the Blues and so the Blues should have no trouble being motivated for the return game in Columbus, win or lose the day before. The game after is Chicago and the feisty flavor should be fresh having just played a week prior. Also since that's their final hurdle (now 5-1-1 at home vs. Central under Hitch) they should be focused on those two particular road games.
...Next, they go to two eastern teams. 7-0-0 on the road against the East and both those teams are clearly well on the outside of the playoff picture. Tampa's closest but they play no defense and have atrocious, atrocious special teams. Blues have already beaten each team this season.
...Last, they get three full off days to get to California for a back to back against the LA teams (no travel between games) and then two full days off before the road trip finale at Phoenix, who suddenly looks quite vulnerable again.
– In fact, the Blues and Detroit only don't have to fly before a game 4 more times this year, the same number. And, Detroit and the Blues suddenly both have the same number of remaining back to backs (3). And Detroit's a little gimpy heading into two back-to-backs this next week.
Its hard to imagine Vancouver not getting 1st with their remaining schedule, but I'm starting to wonder whether their record is a little inflated by a terrible division. Look at the standings/records of the rest of those teams.
I'm pretty ambivalent about the rest of the playoff race other than beating Detroit. If we can push them to the 4/5 match-up its a big bonus.
Its hard to imagine Vancouver not getting 1st with their remaining schedule, but I'm starting to wonder whether their record is a little inflated by a terrible division. Look at the standings/records of the rest of those teams.
I'm pretty ambivalent about the rest of the playoff race other than beating Detroit. If we can push them to the 4/5 match-up its a big bonus.
It would be huge if we got an easy first round while Detroit and Nashville beat each other to the ground.
Best playoff projection / magic number site I've come across. It gives you magic numbers vs each team. (Columbus and Edmonton are already eliminated from mathematically being able to catch the Blues.)
Interestingly, this site project the Blues to win the West, and in the projection that bases recent (last 10 games) play, the President's Cup.
Who knew Captain Kangaroo was such a great hockey coach? All kidding aside, a Preds fan here that comes in peace. Just wanted to congratulate your team and staff for an outstanding season thus far and for the accomplishment of taking over the central division last night. Wish the team and the fans much success, except when you are playing the Preds. Again, Congratulations.
The most important thing for the Blues going into the playoffs is home ice. Our record at home (and Detriot's) are the best in the NHL. If we win the Central, and possibly the west, that is the difference between winning a round and going to the finals, imo. I am confident that this team as it stands (and possibly the addition of at least one or two of Steen/Langs/Dags/Russel) can beat any team with home ice advantage in a 7 game series.
Who knew Captain Kangaroo was such a great hockey coach? All kidding aside, a Preds fan here that comes in peace. Just wanted to congratulate your team and staff for an outstanding season thus far and for the accomplishment of taking over the central division last night. Wish the team and the fans much success, except when you are playing the Preds. Again, Congratulations.
I hope your staff is ready to gameplan the RedWings, because that's who you'll be facing in the first round. The Blues are going to run away with is now!
In seriousness, thanks for the kind words. The stalwart fans, we've been waiting for this kind of performance for a long time. Hopefully this post-season will be special, and the platform for a nice window of being a Cup contender.
Who knew Captain Kangaroo was such a great hockey coach? All kidding aside, a Preds fan here that comes in peace. Just wanted to congratulate your team and staff for an outstanding season thus far and for the accomplishment of taking over the central division last night. Wish the team and the fans much success, except when you are playing the Preds. Again, Congratulations.
Thanks! The Preds are one of my favorite teams despite being division rivals. I hope you stomp the Wings in the first round.
Under Hitchcock:
20-2-3 (.860) home vs. non-Central (rem: vs. PHX)
6-1-1 (.813) home vs. Central (rem: vs. NSH, vs. CBJ, vs. DET)
10-2-2 (.786) road vs. non-Central (rem: @ CAR, @ TB, @ ANA, @ LA, @ PHX, @ DAL)
2-6-1 (.278) road vs. Central (rem: @ CBJ, @ CHI, @ CHI)
Tracking with expectations by picking the closest number, if the Blues stay as consistent as they've been throughout the season, they should expect:
2 of 2 (.860) home pts against non-Central
5 of 6 (.813) home points against Central
9 of 12 (.786) road pts against non-Central 2 of 6 (.278) road points against Central
18 of 26 overall, to finish with 113 points (95+18)
Detroit would then need 114 to win the Central if you reasonably assume the Blues keep their tiebreaker edge. That means they have to get 23 of 26 points to do that (91+23). That's 11-1-1 or better if the Blues put up an 9-3-1 or 8-2-3.
If the Blues go 10-2-1, Detroit literally has to win every single game to win the Central.
Last edited by PocketNines: 03-12-2012 at 04:46 AM.
Its looking like San Jose and Colorado are going to be 7th and 8th or vise versa.
Colorado scares me. That team has some sort of an agenda against the Blues and I dont want to see them in the first round.
Let me make it clear though, Colorado doesnt scare me that much, just enough. In fact, just about every playoff team scares me. I do think this team will get through the first round no matter who it is.
Its looking like San Jose and Colorado are going to be 7th and 8th or vise versa.
Colorado scares me. That team has some sort of an agenda against the Blues and I dont want to see them in the first round.
Let me make it clear though, Colorado doesnt scare me that much, just enough. In fact, just about every playoff team scares me. I do think this team will get through the first round no matter who it is.
Who would be the ideal first round opponent?
Colorado plays too wide open a game to beat The Blues. They lose the puck and will give up lots of good chances. Perron, Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Schwartz, and , I hope, McDonald, should have lots of nice chances (many on breakaways). Halak and Elliott and The Blues' team defence will stifle them. San Jose is more disciplined, and almost as dangerous on offence. But, I don't think either team can beat this Blues' team (especially with 4 games in St. Louis).
The question is whether or not The Blues can beat Vancouver. I think they should be able to beat Detroit head-on, by out-muscling them. I think they should beat The Rangers (but it could depend upon the luck of the bouncing puck). But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's have them first lock up 4th place, and then, the division, and then The Conference, and then, The president's Trophy (home ice throughout)-one at a time, in workman fashion.
Colorado could give the Blues some trouble. They have a hard time winning in the Pepsi Center for whatever reason. And even though the Blues swept SJ this season, I don't think it'll be that easy come playoff time. And there's still the possibility that the Blues end up in the 4th seed and face either Nashville or Detroit... I try not to think too much about the Blues maybe winning the division because I don't want to jinx it lol.
I'm not sold that either Colorado or San Jose is in yet, though. I think that any of Colorado, Phoenix, LA, and San Jose could make the final two spots. Even Calgary has a chance. It sure is exciting to watch the stretch for the final spots when you're not on the outside looking in.
Colorado could give the Blues some trouble. They have a hard time winning in the Pepsi Center for whatever reason. And even though the Blues swept SJ this season, I don't think it'll be that easy come playoff time. And there's still the possibility that the Blues end up in the 4th seed and face either Nashville or Detroit... I try not to think too much about the Blues maybe winning the division because I don't want to jinx it lol.
I'm not sold that either Colorado or San Jose is in yet, though. I think that any of Colorado, Phoenix, LA, and San Jose could make the final two spots. Even Calgary has a chance. It sure is exciting to watch the stretch for the final spots when you're not on the outside looking in.
Vancouver and Detroit are the only two that scare me at all (and Detroit-not very much). This is a Hitchcock team-not a Quenneville or Murray or Payne team. The Blues will play poised, smart, intense, stifling hockey, come in waves of relatively well-rested players, and enjoy top-level goaltending. An overall team effort. If they'll be relative healthy, they should be able to knock off most of those teams, and hang with Vancouver and New York, Pittsburgh or Philadelphia. They should be able to knock off anyone else from The East.
I think they are a better team than Colorado and have more talent but Colorado matches up better against us, and we've obviously had a lot more success against the Sharks. The Sharks are older and slower and we have been able to outskate them and outplay them pretty easily this season. Not to mention Niemi isn't that great.
But Colorado is an interesting team. So many teams have games in hand on them which makes me think that they might not make it, and I think they are a pretty average team overall, but they're a young, fast team that could give a high-seed team a fit in the 1st round. Wouldn't be an easy out, just like they weren't in 2010. I think they would be the tougher series to be honest.
Now that I think about it I think I'd rather play Los Angeles, Phoenix, Calgary and Dallas over them as well....
I think we will beat any team we play in the 1st round since we are just playing too good, so I don't really care that much who gets in, but just saying.
Honestly (the lurking Avs fans are going to hate me for this) I don't think the Avs make the playoffs, nor do I think they belong there. They're in the race now because they've been absurdly good in the shootout and have at least 2 games on every team chasing them. I think with no shootout in the playoffs, if they do make it they won't be too much of an issue.
