Subban and Eller still leading their respective positions
Risk/reward is a rating used to express how well a player is playing in a specific zone, or manpower situation. The number represents the difference between the number of unsuccessful plays a player makes subtracted from the number of successful plays a player makes per-minute of ice-time. The higher the number, the more a player helps, rather than hurts a team's ability to maintain or acquire puck-possession. Traditional plus/minus, as well as goals and assists are not included in the calculation.
In the span of 12 months David Desharnais has gone from a small centreman seeking his first one-way contract, to the Montreal Canadiens number one offensive-centre. Desharnais is a great puck-distributor, who has been helped by both the emergence of Max Pacioretty, and the arrival of Erik Cole. Desharnais' risk/reward is carried by his play when he has possession of the puck. He has the top success-rate for events requiring him to maintain puck-possession, as well as the top offensive-zone passing-percentage.
In the span of 12 months David Desharnais has gone from a small centreman seeking his first one-way contract, to the Montreal Canadiens number one offensive-centre. Desharnais is a great puck-distributor, who has been helped by both the emergence of Max Pacioretty, and the arrival of Erik Cole. Desharnais' risk/reward is carried by his play when he has possession of the puck. He has the top success-rate for events requiring him to maintain puck-possession, as well as the top offensive-zone passing-percentage.
The below graph is a visual representation of each Montreal Canadiens player's success-rate when engaging in defensive-zone events that require him to either remove or obtain puck-possession from the opposition. Events used in this calculation only take place in the defensive-zone and include puck-battles, loose-puck recoveries, blocked-shots, blocked-passes, poke-checks, and missed defensive-zone assignments (d-zone coverage).
The Montreal Canadiens only substantial move on "deadline day" was to move Andrei Kostitsyn and his annual output of 20 to 25 goals per-season. Looking toward next season, the Habs remain an offensively-starved hockey team. In a league that normally requires a team to have at least ten 10-goal scorers and two 30-plus goal-scorers to all but guarantee a playoff berth, the Habs currently have only nine potential 10-goal scorers, and only Max Pacioretty with an above-average chance of scoring 30-goals.
Puck-possession numbers almost identical under both coaches
Mid-season coaching changes are rarely, if ever the product of planning. They are more often than not a panic move made as a last ditch effort to change the direction of a team. Even the turn-around made by the St. Louis Blues following the hiring of Ken Hitchcock could be argued a product of improved goaltending, rather than the impact of a new coach.
Below is a visual representation of the percentage of Montreal Canadiens even-strength events per-zone when Jacques Martin was the head coach, as well as the same data over the course of the entire season. The higher the number in the zone, the higher the amount of plays or events in that zone, and by extension the more time spent in that zone.
Josh Gorges is the Montreal Canadiens top defensive-defenseman. He is the top-rated defensemen in multiple categories, and accomplishes these impressive numbers while facing the oppositions best players. Never afraid to sacrifice his body for the sake of his team, Gorges is the team leader in blocked shots.
Even-strength offensive-zone risk/reward rating is a measurement of how well a player performs in the offensive-zone. Simply put it, the number represents how many more successful plays than unsuccessful plays are made by a player every minute they are on the ice. The higher the number, the better a player performs. Events used in this calculation include passes, dekes, shots, puck-battles, loose-puck recoveries, intercepted passes, etc.
Boucher Scouting breaks down (among other things) individual player's events by zone. The graph below is a visual representation of the percentage of each Montreal Canadiens player's total EVEN-STRENGTH events that occur within each zone. The higher the percentage of events in each zone, the more a player is involved in that zone, and by extension, the more impact that player's play has on the team's overall play within that zone.
A huge void in my coverage of the Canadiens last season resulted from the timing of my writing. I began compiling stats after Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges were injured. This meant that I had no tangible way of expressing just how important these two players were, and are to this team. As a way to fill this void, I've scouted some archived games involving these two players and will be posting reports focusing on them over the coming weeks.
Habs New One Game Scouting Report for Andrei Markov
An above-average defenseman with an above-average grade
Andrei Markov has been the Montreal Canadiens top defenseman since his second season in the league. He moves the puck well, wins battles with a great stick, and can make a cross-seam pass in the offensive-zone like few players I've seen. Out with injuries through much of the last two seasons, many fans and media alike might forget just how important Markov is to the organization. With that in mind, I will post multiple one-game scouting reports covering number 79 between now and the beginning of camp.
Markov has three key strengths; impressive hockey-sense, a strong stick, and incredible vision.
Desharnais with Habs Best Offensive-zone Passing-percentage
Desharnais also with highest percentage of assists per o-zone pass
David Desharnais is not only the Habs leader in even-strength assists, he is also the team leader in offensive-zone passing-percentage, and is tied for the team-lead in assists per completed offensive-zone pass. This not only makes Desharnais the team's best passer, it also makes him the Habs best "money-passer".
The below chart is a visual representation of each Montreal Canadiens forwards completion-rate when attempting to pass the puck in the offensive-zone.
Force on powerplay; understandably still finding way at even-strength
OVERALL GRADE
Markov's overall grade was carried by his work on the powerplay. He only produced one unsuccessful event on the PP, while contributing a beautiful one-touch assist on PK Subban's PP goal. Markov's even-strength grade was below-average.
Rebounds resulting from point shots that make it through to the net are a substantial part of any team's offense. Compared to last season, this year's Montreal Canadiens defense is inexperienced. Players such as James Wisniewski, and Roman Hamrlik had impressive success-rates in this category compared to current defensemen Raphael Diaz, Alexei Emelin and Yannick Weber. While PK Subban has seen his own success-rate drop substantially.
Subban; Habs most important player not named Price
Boucher Scouting tracks every puck-possession related event during a game. This allows us not only to rate players based on the results of these events, but it also allows us to measure how involved each player is in the game. We can determine this by dividing the total amount of events by a player's ice-time. The result tells us how involved a player is in the play; breaking it down by minutes-played allows us to even the playing field, and compare players more equally.
Improving defensive-zone passing-percentage shifting events from the d-zone to the o-zone
Andrei Markov returned to the Montreal Canadiens lineup on March 10th, 2012. The game against the Vancouver Canucks was Markov's first game since November 13th, 2010. Although Markov would never admit it, he was understandably hesitant during his first game back. His hesitancy can be quantified by his low even-strength event total during the game. He was involved in only 3.43 even-strength events against Vancouver, compared to a team-high 4.51 events per-minute played the following game against Buffalo.
Rene Bourque was brought over in a trade involving Mike Cammalleri. The trade was meant to bring in a player capable of replacing Cammalleri's offense, while both saving cap space and getting bigger. The logic was solid, but the results are disappointing. Bourque has managed only 7 points through 29 games with Montreal. His 4 goals translate to a pace of only 11 over an entire season, while his minus-16 traditional plus/minus is cringe-worthy.
