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How much do u think Leafs overpaid Grabovski by?

View Poll Results: How much was he overpaid by?
500k - 1 mil 87 34.80%
1mil 82 32.80%
over a mil. 68 27.20%
Can't really tell, we will see how it goes in the future. 13 5.20%
Voters: 250. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-08-2012, 04:51 PM
  #101
Sundinisagod
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I'm pretty sure he would have gotten 5.5-6 on the open market so technically he's not overpaid...but imho 5m per would have been the perfect number.

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03-08-2012, 04:57 PM
  #102
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.500 to 1 million is the right answer here.

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Old
03-08-2012, 06:28 PM
  #103
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1.5 mill. Bergeron and Krejci just extended for less and both are not only better offensively but also far better defensively and more physical. Not to mention Krejci signed his after leading Boston in scoring on their run to the cup.

Grabovski is a one dimensional 60 point player. I wouldn't give him any more then 4 mill a year as I tend to think on a contending team he's a 3rd line wing (yes wing) at best. His lack of a two way game would severely limit his ice time on a good team, probably land him in the dog house, and he wouldn't be given the freedom to be as focused on that one thing he's good at any more.

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03-08-2012, 06:37 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
1.5 mill. Bergeron and Krejci just extended for less and both are not only better offensively but also far better defensively and more physical. Not to mention Krejci signed his after leading Boston in scoring on their run to the cup.

Grabovski is a one dimensional 60 point player. I wouldn't give him any more then 4 mill a year as I tend to think on a contending team he's a 3rd line wing (yes wing) at best. His lack of a two way game would severely limit his ice time on a good team, probably land him in the dog house, and he wouldn't be given the freedom to be as focused on that one thing he's good at any more.
Krejci was a pending RFA, not a pending UFA, there's a BIG difference, UFAs in general get paid a LOT more. Offer sheets are extremely rare, RFAs have basically no option other than arbitration, teams have all the leverage when it comes to negotiations with RFAs. Krejci signed for a $5.25 mil cap hit as a pending RFA, Grabo signed for a $5.5 mil cap hit as a pending UFA, looking at nothing but those numbers I'd expect Krejci to be the much better player, when in fact he's only a bit better.

Patrice Bergeron gave you guys a hometown discount, that was a nice extension and below market value. Grabovski didn't give us a hometown discount, but he did sign at market value. He would have got this much as a UFA, without a doubt, so how is it "overpayment."

Also, by your logic, Patrice Bergeron is overpaid by at least $2 mil per year, because Giroux is way better than Patrice, and Giroux signed an extension for just $3.75 mil per year. In reality, though, the existence of some very good contracts does not make all other contracts bad.

I think a lot of people just sort of average out all salaries in their head, and ignore whether it's a rookie contract, an RFA contract, or a UFA contract. UFAs GET PAID MORE, most "steal" type deals are either rookie or RFA deals, or UFA contracts signed before a player broke out. If a player is established as a good NHLer, and set to become a UFA, he's going to get paid.

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03-08-2012, 08:20 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
1.5 mill. Bergeron and Krejci just extended for less and both are not only better offensively but also far better defensively and more physical. Not to mention Krejci signed his after leading Boston in scoring on their run to the cup.

Grabovski is a one dimensional 60 point player. I wouldn't give him any more then 4 mill a year as I tend to think on a contending team he's a 3rd line wing (yes wing) at best. His lack of a two way game would severely limit his ice time on a good team, probably land him in the dog house, and he wouldn't be given the freedom to be as focused on that one thing he's good at any more.
Sounds like you need a refresher course on RFAs vs. UFAs.

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03-08-2012, 08:47 PM
  #106
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I get that $5.5m is probably what he would fetch in free agency (especially considering how weak it is this year), but it is kind of too bad he didn't sign for a discount, and then the altered NTC thrown in makes it a bad deal. Sorry Leaf fans.

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03-08-2012, 10:26 PM
  #107
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I would to of liked to seen him sign in the 5 to 5.25 range as it would be a bit of a hometown discount compared to the 5.5 to 6 he would of gotten the open market. All in all it is a fair contract as UFA is nutty.

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03-08-2012, 10:40 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpallday View Post
Sounds like you need a refresher course on RFAs vs. UFAs.
Looks like you need the refresher, Bergeron reupped as a UFA.

Well done.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ponder View Post
Krejci was a pending RFA, not a pending UFA, there's a BIG difference, UFAs in general get paid a LOT more. Offer sheets are extremely rare, RFAs have basically no option other than arbitration, teams have all the leverage when it comes to negotiations with RFAs. Krejci signed for a $5.25 mil cap hit as a pending RFA, Grabo signed for a $5.5 mil cap hit as a pending UFA, looking at nothing but those numbers I'd expect Krejci to be the much better player, when in fact he's only a bit better.

Patrice Bergeron gave you guys a hometown discount, that was a nice extension and below market value. Grabovski didn't give us a hometown discount, but he did sign at market value. He would have got this much as a UFA, without a doubt, so how is it "overpayment."

Also, by your logic, Patrice Bergeron is overpaid by at least $2 mil per year, because Giroux is way better than Patrice, and Giroux signed an extension for just $3.75 mil per year. In reality, though, the existence of some very good contracts does not make all other contracts bad.

I think a lot of people just sort of average out all salaries in their head, and ignore whether it's a rookie contract, an RFA contract, or a UFA contract. UFAs GET PAID MORE, most "steal" type deals are either rookie or RFA deals, or UFA contracts signed before a player broke out. If a player is established as a good NHLer, and set to become a UFA, he's going to get paid.
I'd have to be pretty naive for that to be my logic. Look at what Giroux was doing and had done before signing that extension and it's fairly easy to see why he signed at 3.75. Had he been established one more year it would have been far higher.

As for how rare it is that a UFA signs for less then what Grabo did here after having a decent season, I'd say you're wrong. For instance:
- Leino, 53 point season, signed for 4.5 a year in Buffalo
- Selanne, 80 point season, reups with Anaheim for 4 a year
- Ruutu, 70 point season last year, reups with Carolina for 4.75
- Umberger, 57 point season last year, reups with Columbus for 4.6
- Kunitz, 48 point season, reups with the pens for 3.725
- Backes, 62 point season, reups with the Blues for 4.5 per
- St Louis, 99 point season last year, career PPG player, reups with Tampa for 5.65, It's bonkers that Grabovski got paid like Martin St Louis did... absolutely bonkers.

In every case we're talking about players at or above GRabovskis level offensively. About guys that all have additional elements to their games that make them more valuable. And we're talking about guys who were UFA's when they reupped very very recently that all make substantially less.

And you're kidding yourself if you think he had more leverage then a guy like John Tavares would simply because he was a UFA and Tavares was an RFA. Way too much for a guy like Grabovski, as I said before I'd pay him 4 and based on what others got for reupping in the same situation, I'd be justified in doing it.

Burke on the other hand, he knows he has no time left. He either squeezes this team into the playoffs or he likely finds a new job. He has to bow to Grabovski here because chances are, the kids in the system won't be dropping 50 points next year to replace him and the UFA market is barren. So he overpays by a lot hoping to salvage his job. If I were a Leaf fan I'd be pissed because such an overpayment handicaps the Leafs down the road and ensures a mediocre team.

But that's all just my opinion.

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03-08-2012, 10:48 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
Looks like you need the refresher, Bergeron reupped as a UFA.

Well done.

I'd have to be pretty naive for that to be my logic. Look at what Giroux was doing and had done before signing that extension and it's fairly easy to see why he signed at 3.75. Had he been established one more year it would have been far higher.

As for how rare it is that a UFA signs for less then what Grabo did here after having a decent season, I'd say you're wrong. For instance:
- Leino, 53 point season, signed for 4.5 a year in Buffalo
- Selanne, 80 point season, reups with Anaheim for 4 a year
- Ruutu, 70 point season last year, reups with Carolina for 4.75
- Umberger, 57 point season last year, reups with Columbus for 4.6
- Kunitz, 48 point season, reups with the pens for 3.725
- Backes, 62 point season, reups with the Blues for 4.5 per
- St Louis, 99 point season last year, career PPG player, reups with Tampa for 5.65, It's bonkers that Grabovski got paid like Martin St Louis did... absolutely bonkers.

In every case we're talking about players at or above GRabovskis level offensively. About guys that all have additional elements to their games that make them more valuable. And we're talking about guys who were UFA's when they reupped very very recently that all make substantially less.

And you're kidding yourself if you think he had more leverage then a guy like John Tavares would simply because he was a UFA and Tavares was an RFA. Way too much for a guy like Grabovski, as I said before I'd pay him 4 and based on what others got for reupping in the same situation, I'd be justified in doing it.

Burke on the other hand, he knows he has no time left. He either squeezes this team into the playoffs or he likely finds a new job. He has to bow to Grabovski here because chances are, the kids in the system won't be dropping 50 points next year to replace him and the UFA market is barren. So he overpays by a lot hoping to salvage his job. If I were a Leaf fan I'd be pissed because such an overpayment handicaps the Leafs down the road and ensures a mediocre team.

But that's all just my opinion.
Guys like Leino and Fleischmann both signed at $4.5 million on the open market last year, Burke also handed Connolly a $4.75 million contract after a 42 point season.

I think Grabo's overpaid by about $500k-$750k. Don't think it handicaps us, especially if Grabo continues to be about, on average, a 30 goal, 60 point centreman through this contract.

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03-08-2012, 11:10 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
Looks like you need the refresher, Bergeron reupped as a UFA.

Well done.



I'd have to be pretty naive for that to be my logic. Look at what Giroux was doing and had done before signing that extension and it's fairly easy to see why he signed at 3.75. Had he been established one more year it would have been far higher.

As for how rare it is that a UFA signs for less then what Grabo did here after having a decent season, I'd say you're wrong. For instance:
- Leino, 53 point season, signed for 4.5 a year in Buffalo
- Selanne, 80 point season, reups with Anaheim for 4 a year
- Ruutu, 70 point season last year, reups with Carolina for 4.75
- Umberger, 57 point season last year, reups with Columbus for 4.6
- Kunitz, 48 point season, reups with the pens for 3.725
- Backes, 62 point season, reups with the Blues for 4.5 per
- St Louis, 99 point season last year, career PPG player, reups with Tampa for 5.65, It's bonkers that Grabovski got paid like Martin St Louis did... absolutely bonkers.

In every case we're talking about players at or above GRabovskis level offensively. About guys that all have additional elements to their games that make them more valuable. And we're talking about guys who were UFA's when they reupped very very recently that all make substantially less.

And you're kidding yourself if you think he had more leverage then a guy like John Tavares would simply because he was a UFA and Tavares was an RFA. Way too much for a guy like Grabovski, as I said before I'd pay him 4 and based on what others got for reupping in the same situation, I'd be justified in doing it.

Burke on the other hand, he knows he has no time left. He either squeezes this team into the playoffs or he likely finds a new job. He has to bow to Grabovski here because chances are, the kids in the system won't be dropping 50 points next year to replace him and the UFA market is barren. So he overpays by a lot hoping to salvage his job. If I were a Leaf fan I'd be pissed because such an overpayment handicaps the Leafs down the road and ensures a mediocre team.

But that's all just my opinion.
-Leino was coming off the first year hes ever done anything in the league. He got very good more for what he had shown at that point.
-Selanne was only going to play for Anaheim, his contract is not comparable.
-Ruutu has never hit 70, his production is similar to Grabovski though he plays the more important position. These contracts are fairly close to where they should be.
-Umberger was signed when the salary cap was a little lower and is a winger.
-Backes signed in the November of his 62 point season at that point his career high was 54. Also a lower salary cap.
-One would think that St.Louis signed a hometown discount while the salary cap was lower.

I don't see where these contracts make Grabovski's all that bad going into this Off-season.

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03-08-2012, 11:45 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
As for how rare it is that a UFA signs for less then what Grabo did here after having a decent season, I'd say you're wrong. For instance:
- Leino, 53 point season, signed for 4.5 a year in Buffalo
- Selanne, 80 point season, reups with Anaheim for 4 a year
- Ruutu, 70 point season last year, reups with Carolina for 4.75
- Umberger, 57 point season last year, reups with Columbus for 4.6
- Kunitz, 48 point season, reups with the pens for 3.725
- Backes, 62 point season, reups with the Blues for 4.5 per
- St Louis, 99 point season last year, career PPG player, reups with Tampa for 5.65, It's bonkers that Grabovski got paid like Martin St Louis did... absolutely bonkers.
Not sure if serious...

Tell me you don't think these are actual comparables.

Only remotely comparable is Leino and his cap hit is low on account of being signed for 10 years.

Also, when exactly did Ruutu score 70 points and then the year after sign for 4.75M?

EDIT: Actually, Umberger is kind of a fair comparable.

EDIT 2: I'm as big of a Leaf hater as the next guy, but I wonder how much of the criticism of this contract is Leaf/Burke specific? I mean otherwise, I don't get how most of you don't get it. And I know you'd all be the ones ripping Burke a new one next year when the Leafs top 2 centres are Bozak and Lombardi (Connolly to IR) and they suck.


Last edited by DG: 03-08-2012 at 11:59 PM.
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Old
03-09-2012, 12:13 AM
  #112
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When you have nothing better on it's way, you have to sign the guy.

The Leafs paid market value for a good player, the only way they could have spent less is to let him walk and hope Joe Colborne is better than he is.

Did what they had to do.

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03-09-2012, 01:09 AM
  #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaoz View Post
As for how rare it is that a UFA signs for less then what Grabo did here after having a decent season, I'd say you're wrong. For instance:
- Leino, 53 point season, signed for 4.5 a year in Buffalo
- Selanne, 80 point season, reups with Anaheim for 4 a year
- Ruutu, 70 point season last year, reups with Carolina for 4.75
- Umberger, 57 point season last year, reups with Columbus for 4.6
- Kunitz, 48 point season, reups with the pens for 3.725
- Backes, 62 point season, reups with the Blues for 4.5 per
- St Louis, 99 point season last year, career PPG player, reups with Tampa for 5.65,
- Grabo is a lot better than Leino
- Selanne signed as a 40 year old, hardly comparable. He's made his money and just wants to stay comfortable in Anaheim
- Ruutu's career high is 57 points, where are you getting 70??? He signed his extension very recently, and looks to be on pace for about 30-something points this year/when he re-signed, and he got just $0.75 mil less per year than Grabo
- Backes signed his extension at the beginning of the 2010/11 season. He was coming off a 17 goal, 48 point season, and his career high was 54 points
- St. Louis, see Selanne, except to a somewhat lesser extent. He's 36, he's comfortable, he signs a cheaper deal to finish out his career with his hometown team


Would I have prefered Grabo at $5 mil per year? Sure. $4.5 mil per year? That would have been amazing, and a serious hometown discount compared to what he'd get as easily the top C on the UFA market. But you said he was overpaid by $1.5 mil per year, which is nuts, when his contract is IMO at market value. You think the fair value for a UFA like Grabo is only $4 mil per year, on a 5 year contract? Come on, many teams would offer him over $5 mil per year without a doubt.

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03-09-2012, 09:16 AM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DG View Post
Not sure if serious...

Tell me you don't think these are actual comparables.

Only remotely comparable is Leino and his cap hit is low on account of being signed for 10 years.

Also, when exactly did Ruutu score 70 points and then the year after sign for 4.75M?

EDIT: Actually, Umberger is kind of a fair comparable.

EDIT 2: I'm as big of a Leaf hater as the next guy, but I wonder how much of the criticism of this contract is Leaf/Burke specific? I mean otherwise, I don't get how most of you don't get it. And I know you'd all be the ones ripping Burke a new one next year when the Leafs top 2 centres are Bozak and Lombardi (Connolly to IR) and they suck.
My bad, typo, 57 points. If Ruutu scored 70 in a season he'd actually be ahead of Grabovski offensively, instead of just being on the same level offensively and better at quite literally everything else.

If people are ripping Burke a new one next year (and they will be), don't delude yourself into thinking its based solely on the teams performance next season. It's more the fact that he's had 4 seasons now to improve his club and has yet to do so.

And actually, you're right, none of those guys are comparables. St Louis and Selanne are 10x the hockey players Grabovski will ever be, far more proven and would draw huge interest at FA. Fuys like Umberger, Backes, and Ruutu all produce similar offensive numbers and are quite literally better at everything else as well. Kunitz and Leino are really the only true comparables with him, and both make substantially less.

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03-09-2012, 09:22 AM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DG View Post
Not sure if serious...

Tell me you don't think these are actual comparables.

Only remotely comparable is Leino and his cap hit is low on account of being signed for 10 years.

Also, when exactly did Ruutu score 70 points and then the year after sign for 4.75M?

EDIT: Actually, Umberger is kind of a fair comparable.

EDIT 2: I'm as big of a Leaf hater as the next guy, but I wonder how much of the criticism of this contract is Leaf/Burke specific? I mean otherwise, I don't get how most of you don't get it. And I know you'd all be the ones ripping Burke a new one next year when the Leafs top 2 centres are Bozak and Lombardi (Connolly to IR) and they suck.
Leino is signed for 6 years and his salary is $4.5M every season. It's not a front loaded deal with extra years to lower the cap hit.

I believe you have his contract confused with Christian Ehrhoff's.

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03-09-2012, 05:23 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
Leino is signed for 6 years and his salary is $4.5M every season. It's not a front loaded deal with extra years to lower the cap hit.

I believe you have his contract confused with Christian Ehrhoff's.
I did, thanks, I stand corrected on that one.

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03-09-2012, 05:33 PM
  #117
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well i shouldnt really vote because apparently the OP doesnt want anyone besides Florida, Nashville, and Columbus etc to vote but i would say .75 to a 1 million overpaid. On a contending team he makes between 4 and 4.5 million, on bad teams like Montreal and Toronto, they pay a premium to keep what talent they have.

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03-09-2012, 05:44 PM
  #118
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Reading this thread was freaking hilarious. Thanks for the 20 minutes of entertainment.

Glad to have Grabo.

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03-09-2012, 07:17 PM
  #119
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Probably by a million.

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03-09-2012, 09:45 PM
  #120
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It's amazing how so many NHL fans have no idea about the simple concept of cap inflation, contract status and demand.

Maybe it's because I'm in a university program related to accounting and finance, but it's not that hard to understand people. Even a simple Economics course would be enough, but I digress. Too many armchair GMs and know-it-alls on this board who think they're smarter than Burke.

It's quite simple really

1. There are no prominent centres on the market this year, before Grabovski got signed he was going to be the best centre available by a mile. He would be in high demand because he has played well over the last two years now.

2. The cap has inflated and so have contracts and value tremendously. Look at last year's off-season for example, players like Joel Ward, Sean Bergenheim, Ville Leino, etc. got humongous paydays. Grabo at 5.5 isn't even that bad when you look at those contracts.

3. The Leafs are thin at centre. We have Bozak, Grabo and Connolly. Bozak works hard but is inconsistent and lacks finish at times, he should ideally be a 3rd line C for a good team. Connolly is a lazy ******* and only plays well when he feels like it, one of the most heartless players I've seen, he's played himself into the bottom six. Grabo is easily the best out of the three in terms of being an all-around player and centre. If we lose Grabo, we have an even shallower centre pool, and Kadri and Colborne are no sure bets. For this reason, Grabo and his agent had the upper hand, so we had no choice but meet the market price, which is 5.5M. Either pay Grabo, or lose him for nothing and be shallow at centre which will likely lead to another year of no playoffs.

There's a difference between being overpaid and being at market value. Almost all UFAs signed these days are overpaid, simple concept of supply and demand. To think that Grabovski would not have garnered at least 5M, and most likely 5.5, is laughable. Look at the UFA centres yourself and see the lack of talent and availability. He is overpaid by 500k, but he would've gotten 5.5M or possibly even more on the market easily.

It's not that hard to understand, and for those of you who keep comparing cheaper contracts of similar players, look at the details of the contract before you make the comparison.

1st of all, look at the status of the player and what free agency they are approaching, if it is RFA, then stop right there.

2nd, look at the year the contract was signed. A UFA contract from 2+ years ago is not the same as prices have inflated. If the contract was signed 2+ years ago, then again, stop right there.

3rd, consider other factors such as age, how long the player has been good, how long they've played for the same team and how much they like it there or the success they have enjoyed, etc.

Hopefully that should outline it for people.

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03-10-2012, 03:14 PM
  #121
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maybe half a million.

But you look at the leafs depth at centre, and you can understand why they would pay a premium for grabovski.

Grabovski is a pretty nifty player player, and frankly, he's developed into much more of a player than I ever thought he would, but I dont think he would have even got 5.5 on the open market.

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