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Henke Vezina snub ?

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Old
03-11-2012, 01:20 PM
  #26
SnowblindNYR
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Originally Posted by Dfence033 View Post
For what it's worth, every goalies stats pro-rated to seasons end coinciding with their stats over the last 7.5%* of their seasons (taking into account what percentage of starts they have made of their teams games played) (*selected since that's Lundqvist's current slump, as stated before in the thread: "If he continues at his slump he'd still win") is as follows:

Lundqvist:
61 games, 34-19-8, 55.7 win %, 2.17 GAA, .927 SV%, 8 shutouts

Rinne:
74 games, 48-14-10, 64.9 win %, 2.29 GAA, .925 SV%, 4 shutouts

Quick:
69 games, 33-25-11, 47.8 win %, 2.17 GAA, .920 SV%, 7 shutouts

Halak:
46 games, 30-11-5, 65.2 win %, 1.84 GAA, .930 SV%, 6 shutouts


If you go straight-stats, Halak wins (best win%, lowest GAA, highest SV%). If you throw him out because of games played (46), then straight-stats says it's Lundqvists (Tied for 1st GAA, Best SV%, 2nd most wins, 2nd highest win%, most shutouts). And then you look at that wins differential.

What's more impressive? Being 0.12 GAA and 0.02 SV% better than your competition? Or having 14 more wins (41% better) than your closest competition? It's not as far and away as you'd be assuming here, snowblind.

Edit: In response to the bolded, no, he wouldn't. Rinne is on pace for 14 more WINS with Lundqvist having 13 fewer STARTS. Lundqvist would somehow have to go 14-0-0 in the 13 starts to make up the gap between the two.
The bolded is a stupid claim, but those numbers take into account him continuing his current slump? So you're expecting him to give up 3 goals a game every game until the end of the season. Before this 4 game slump he had like 12 straight of allowing 2 or fewer goals. Why don't you use those stats for the end of the season. That's a lot bigger sample size.

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Old
03-11-2012, 01:20 PM
  #27
Dfence033
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Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
Um, who cares about this prorated crap? Yeah, let's take Hank's only slump of the season and pro-rate it the rest of the way after he's been a monster the whole season. How convenient

And there is no way in hell Rinne is going to finish with 14 more wins. That would essentially mean that Hank will lose like 80% of the remaining games while Rinne wins almost every one of his. Do you honestly think this is a realistic possibility for a team that has been in first place for majority of the season?
Perhaps you should read the actual thread. It was stated that even if Hank gives up 3-4 goals a game from here on out, he still wins it. This "pro-rated crap" is actually UNDER that projection and shows just how asinine that statement really is. Oh, and by the way, Rinne is already 7 wins up on Lundqvist. And guess what, if you take out Rinne's worst slump of the season (17 goals in 13 periods), he is quite noticeably in the front of the pack. Cherry picking is fun, isn't it?

Look, I want Hank to win as much as everyone else does, but it's not as clear-cut guaranteed his as a lot of you are making it out to be, and the notion that Hank can **** the bed for the remainder of the year and still run away with it is ridiculous, especially with the number of goalies coming on strong (Quick, Rinne, Howard, Halak, Smith, and Fleury). It's still CURRENTLY his to lose, but to expect that if he continues playing as he has during this "slump" it's STILL his to lose... well that's just being blind to facts.

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03-11-2012, 01:24 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ailurophile View Post
Unless Hank keeps letting in 3 a game the rest of the way, I don't see him losing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Badgerfan View Post
Even if Lundqvist gives up 4 goals every game for the last 12 he plays he will still get it.

Its finally his.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
The bolded is a stupid claim, but those numbers take into account him continuing his current slump? So you're expecting him to give up 3 goals a game every game until the end of the season. Before this 4 game slump he had like 12 straight of allowing 2 or fewer goals. Why don't you use those stats for the end of the season. That's a lot bigger sample size.

Does this answer your question?

Do I expect it? No. Just trying to cool the jets before it gets to full-blown insanity-level predictions. I really do believe it's his this year, but it's been pointed out in the first 5-10 posts on this single thread that he can basically crap himself in net for the next 12 games and still win it. That's just ludicrous. And by the way, his stats are pro-rated based on a 2.6 GAA, which is certainly realistic to happen, even if this IS his slump for the year.

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03-11-2012, 01:25 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dfence033 View Post
Perhaps you should read the actual thread. It was stated that even if Hank gives up 3-4 goals a game from here on out, he still wins it. This "pro-rated crap" is actually UNDER that projection and shows just how asinine that statement really is. Oh, and by the way, Rinne is already 7 wins up on Lundqvist. And guess what, if you take out Rinne's worst slump of the season (17 goals in 13 periods), he is quite noticeably in the front of the pack. Cherry picking is fun, isn't it?

Look, I want Hank to win as much as everyone else does, but it's not as clear-cut guaranteed his as a lot of you are making it out to be, and the notion that Hank can **** the bed for the remainder of the year and still run away with it is ridiculous, especially with the number of goalies coming on strong (Quick, Rinne, Howard, Halak, Smith, and Fleury). It's still CURRENTLY his to lose, but to expect that if he continues playing as he has during this "slump" it's STILL his to lose... well that's just being blind to facts.
You can try and make your case all you want, Rinne is still a long-shot to win it right now.

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03-11-2012, 01:26 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dfence033 View Post
Perhaps you should read the actual thread. It was stated that even if Hank gives up 3-4 goals a game from here on out, he still wins it. This "pro-rated crap" is actually UNDER that projection and shows just how asinine that statement really is. Oh, and by the way, Rinne is already 7 wins up on Lundqvist. And guess what, if you take out Rinne's worst slump of the season (17 goals in 13 periods), he is quite noticeably in the front of the pack. Cherry picking is fun, isn't it?

Look, I want Hank to win as much as everyone else does, but it's not as clear-cut guaranteed his as a lot of you are making it out to be, and the notion that Hank can **** the bed for the remainder of the year and still run away with it is ridiculous, especially with the number of goalies coming on strong (Quick, Rinne, Howard, Halak, Smith, and Fleury). It's still CURRENTLY his to lose, but to expect that if he continues playing as he has during this "slump" it's STILL his to lose... well that's just being blind to facts.
Wait, so you're taking out Rinne's slump and no one else's? I somehow doubt, that if you take out one short slump from Rinne he makes up a season long half goal difference in GAA. Lundqvist's 4 game slump cost his a little more than .1 in GAA. Would you mind posting those stats where Rinne would be way away ahead of everyone if not for 4 games?

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03-11-2012, 01:28 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dfence033 View Post
Does this answer your question?

Do I expect it? No. Just trying to cool the jets before it gets to full-blown insanity-level predictions. I really do believe it's his this year, but it's been pointed out in the first 5-10 posts on this single thread that he can basically crap himself in net for the next 12 games and still win it. That's just ludicrous. And by the way, his stats are pro-rated based on a 2.6 GAA, which is certainly realistic to happen, even if this IS his slump for the year.
He's allowed .73 goals fewer than that in the entire season.

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03-11-2012, 01:30 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dfence033 View Post
Does this answer your question?

Do I expect it? No. Just trying to cool the jets before it gets to full-blown insanity-level predictions. I really do believe it's his this year, but it's been pointed out in the first 5-10 posts on this single thread that he can basically crap himself in net for the next 12 games and still win it. That's just ludicrous. And by the way, his stats are pro-rated based on a 2.6 GAA, which is certainly realistic to happen, even if this IS his slump for the year.
He CAN still "crap" himself and win it. It's not guaranteed, but it's possible. Why? Because there is no guarantee that Rinne or Quick are going to play lights out the rest of the way.

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03-11-2012, 01:41 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
You can try and make your case all you want, Rinne is still a long-shot to win it right now.
I agree, but it's not as "Long-shot" as Lundqvist being able to give up 3+ per game and still easily win it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
Wait, so you're taking out Rinne's slump and no one else's? I somehow doubt, that if you take out one short slump from Rinne he makes up a season long half goal difference in GAA. Lundqvist's 4 game slump cost his a little more than .1 in GAA. Would you mind posting those stats where Rinne would be way away ahead of everyone if not for 4 games?
No, no one's slump is taken out. The poster I was quoting said that if you take out Lundqvist's slump, so I retorted that IF you take out Rinne's worst slump he looks a lot better too. Taking out that stretch of 17 goals allowed in 13 periods, Rinne's GAA would currently (not pro-rated) sit around 2.12 (an approximation, not going to go crunch numbers on every save + goal allowed for 61 games).

So his season stats minus that slump would approximate:
57 games, 38-10-7, 2.12 GAA, .927 SV%, 4 shutouts. Far and away above the other "contenders" in wins, comparable GAA/SV% to Quick, better SV% than Halak. And easily in the conversation with Lundqvist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowblindNYR View Post
He's allowed .73 goals fewer than that in the entire season.
Yes, he has, which is 0.40 less than he has allowed in his entire career. Using his career as a mid-point, if he trends back towards his career average over the last 12 games this year, he would be at .57 more than his current season average. Not that difficult to do, when you consider his overall career average, honestly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
He CAN still "crap" himself and win it. It's not guaranteed, but it's possible. Why? Because there is no guarantee that Rinne or Quick are going to play lights out the rest of the way.
No, he CAN'T. If he allows 2.6 GAA for the next 12 starts this year, he is barely ahead of Halak and Quick in terms of GAA, barely ahead of Rinne in SV%, and well behind Rinne in wins. If he gives up a 3.5 (halfway between the 3 and 4 already posted in this thread), he finishes with a 2.22 GAA on the year (and likely lower, given he'd be pulled in a number of those starts, not to mention affecting his SV%). Rinne without changing his pace would finish at 2.29, and run away laughing with the Vezina if that actually happened. Rinne isn't playing "lights out" at his current pace. He is on his exact season and career averages. Imagine if Lundqvist's slump continues and Rinne gets 3-4 shutouts in his last 12-13 starts? That'd be "lights out," and he'd steal it easily.


Last edited by Dfence033: 03-11-2012 at 01:47 PM.
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Old
03-11-2012, 01:47 PM
  #34
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Dude, don't get your hopes up

When was the last time a goalie gave up 3+ goals in 15 straight games? Especially a Lundqvist caliber goalie? Even if he's not his usual self he's going to get at least 1 or 2 more shutout and few 1 and 2 GA games sprinkled in. That will be enough to seal it

And this slump is not even a slump. It's four ****ing games. FOUR. Extrapolating 4 games out of 50 games is ridiculous

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03-11-2012, 01:48 PM
  #35
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In other news, Malkin's MVP campaign may have just taken a "hit," leaving Giroux and Stamkos at F and Lundqvist a G. So there's that.

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03-11-2012, 01:53 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
Dude, don't get your hopes up

When was the last time a goalie gave up 3+ goals in 15 straight games? Especially a Lundqvist caliber goalie? Even if he's not his usual self he's going to get at least 1 or 2 more shutout and few 1 and 2 GA games sprinkled in. That will be enough to seal it

And this slump is not even a slump. It's four ****ing games. FOUR. Extrapolating 4 games out of 50 games is ridiculous
"Dude," my hopes are that it's just a mini-slump, and he will get back on track and solidify his chances. But it's not as obvious as many of you are making it sound. To answer your question:

Career average season to this point: 61 games, 33 wins, 10 shutouts, 2.29 GAA, .916 SV%
Next 150 games, 46 wins, 8 shutouts, 3.10 GAA, .899 SV%

Yes, it can happen, and for a lot more than 15 games. First 14 games this season alone: 3.846 GAA

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03-11-2012, 02:01 PM
  #37
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Not sure what you're talking about

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03-11-2012, 02:20 PM
  #38
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My whole point of this was the constant gushing over Rinne on NHL network . Weekes always seems in Henke camp but q lot of the other analysts seem to have huge hard ons for Pekka

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03-11-2012, 02:43 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Dorado View Post
My whole point of this was the constant gushing over Rinne on NHL network . Weekes always seems in Henke camp but q lot of the other analysts seem to have huge hard ons for Pekka
Hank is still easily the favorite right now

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03-11-2012, 02:54 PM
  #40
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If you meant in regards to Malkin, he had a dangerous hit on Johnny Boychuk on the boards, could possibly be a suspension.

Since I've been making the case that Lundqvist can't win it if he posts a 3-4 GAA the rest of the way, let me also say this: Lundqvist has the best GAA compared against the average goals/game of the teams he has faced out of the current "contenders."

Lundqvist: 1.87 GAA vs. 2.742 average goals/game (-0.872)
Halak: 1.86 GAA vs. 2.537 average goals/game (-0.677)
Quick: 2.00 GAA vs. 2.631 average goals/game (-0.631)
Rinne: 2.35 GAA vs. 2.622 average goals/game (-0.272)

Halak is barely ahead of Lundqvist in GAA (0.01), despite facing teams that score on average 0.205 goals fewer/game, and seeing those teams far fewer. Don't know if anyone else considers this as significant, but I do, and I think this is where Lundqvist really shines in comparison to the competition.

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03-11-2012, 02:56 PM
  #41
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Hank needs to stop letting in 3 a game.

A few 1 goal games, maybe 1 or 2 more shutouts, it's his.

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03-11-2012, 02:58 PM
  #42
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If the NYR don't get their collective **** together u won't have to worry about him being "snubbed". He won't get it and won't deserve it.

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03-11-2012, 03:02 PM
  #43
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This is the year for Hank to win the Vezina. His stats are better than all the goalies now and he is also the popular goalie in the media and etc. Unless there is a huge meltdown, it is Hank's award to win. He just needs to be above average down the stretch which I don't see any reason why he wont while gearing up for the playoffs

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03-11-2012, 03:02 PM
  #44
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No way do Halak/Elliot win considering they pretty much split the platoon between them

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03-11-2012, 03:05 PM
  #45
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Malkin is a lock for the Hart Imo. He's not going to get suspended, and even if he did he would still probably win

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03-11-2012, 03:07 PM
  #46
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it's closer than people think. while i think hank will still get it, rinne has been nothing short of amazing as well. he will definitely get consideration. but i will be very upset if hank doesn't get it.

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03-11-2012, 03:09 PM
  #47
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Btw, Hank has always been at his best at the end of the season. I don't think there's been a season where he's floundered at the end. Except maybe in his rookie year. And he's had way more rest than he needs this year

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03-11-2012, 03:09 PM
  #48
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it's closer than people think. while i think hank will still get it, rinne has been nothing short of amazing as well. he will definitely get consideration. but i will be very upset if hank doesn't get it.
Rinne only leads Hank in wins. Quick is closer to Hank in terms of stats than Rinne is.

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03-11-2012, 03:39 PM
  #49
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some would argue wins is the most important stat

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03-11-2012, 03:41 PM
  #50
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some would argue wins is the most important stat
It's not. I'm sure Hank would have higher wins if he played most of the games Biron has. Hank beats Rinne in other stats besides wins

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