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Old
03-09-2012, 02:05 PM
  #76
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Old
03-09-2012, 09:50 PM
  #77
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Well, Phoenix and Dallas were idle, so after tonight's loss the targets remain 93 points to sneak into the playoffs, and 96 points to win the division.

That translates to a record of 9-4-1 to get into the playoffs (.679 hockey), and a record of 11-3 (.786 hockey).

(Cue Paul Simon's "Slip Slidin' Away"...)

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Old
03-09-2012, 10:05 PM
  #78
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they done ****ed up

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Old
03-10-2012, 02:19 AM
  #79
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On the bright side, plenty of us will save some money this spring (and next fall).

Another tough day to be a Kings ticket rep.

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Old
03-10-2012, 09:58 AM
  #80
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San Jose – Games remaining: 16. Magic number: 34
Chicago – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 34
Dallas – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 34
Phoenix – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 31
----------------------------------------------------------
Calgary – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 29
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 14 Elimination Number: 29
Colorado – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27
Anaheim – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 23
Minnesota – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 23
Edmonton – Games remaining: 15. Magic number: 15
Columbus – Games remaining: 15. Magic number: 8

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Lost to Detroit 3-4, playoff odds down 11.4 to 31.4%

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Old
03-10-2012, 11:24 AM
  #81
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God damn 60ish % to 31 because we don't show up in the 2 games against beat down opponents.

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Old
03-10-2012, 12:10 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
God damn 60ish % to 31 because we don't show up in the 2 games against beat down opponents.
They've really got to win the next two games. 2 wins gets them back to ~55% thereabouts. Losing the next two games will put them in a hole that only a 8-1 run will get them out of. They've essentially got 2-3 regulation losses left they can afford for the rest of the season.

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Old
03-10-2012, 02:01 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
They've essentially got 2-3 regulation losses left they can afford for the rest of the season.
4 to 5 regulation losses, unless you're assuming three OT/SOL in there as well. Remember, the points target is still 93, which is 9-4-1.

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Old
03-10-2012, 03:31 PM
  #84
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2 disastrous losses:

at Columbus and Detroit, giving us 0 points in those two games,

and now we're in 10th place, with 5 teams fighting for 2 playoff spots,

and Sharks with 2 games in hand over us,

so I would say that there are 4 teams fighting for one spot realistically,

and those 4 are Phoenix (currently 2 pts ahead of us), Calgary, Colorado and Kings,

so if we don't get 4 pts in the next two games, I believe we are toast for sure,

while even if we get 4 pts, we are no lock to get in but at least have a fighting chance.

The choke job yesterday had better not hang over to our next game or we are done.

We will see if our character is what we hope it is because it was a crushing loss to lose so late and not even get a point out of it,

bummed to the max...

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Old
03-11-2012, 10:43 AM
  #85
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Updates from action last night.

Chicago – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 34
Dallas – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 34
San Jose – Games remaining: 15. Magic number: 32
Phoenix – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 31
----------------------------------------------------------
Calgary – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 29
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 14 Elimination Number: 29
Colorado – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 27
Anaheim – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 21
Minnesota – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 23
Edmonton – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 14
Columbus – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 6

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Lost to Detroit 3-4, playoff odds down 1.2 to 30.2%

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Old
03-12-2012, 03:52 AM
  #86
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Thoughts...

The Kings don't leave SoCal for the next 6 games, with 5 home games and 1 at the Pond.

I think the Kings have to go 4-2, with one of those wins a regulation win over SJ to look strong for that playoff spot. Something like 5-1 or 4-1-1 with a loss to the Sharks would be great too. After that homestand we hit the road for 4 games, 3 in western Canada and one in Minnesota. Edmonton and Minnesota are absolute no excuses must win games. And the Kings also need to split with Vancouver and Calgary.

The schedule actually looks pretty promising for the Kings. Detroit and Boston may seem like big time opponents but Detroit is severely beat-up and Boston has been below average in the second half. We get Edmonton twice and SJ three times (twice at home). After the Kings play Vancouver in Game 76, there isn't a big time opponent with the way SJ is playing. The Kings final 6 are against SJ x2, Edmonton x2, Minnesota an Calgary. We really couldn't ask for an easier finish, especially with how SJ has looked.

Looking at other teams schedules it may be the best for us to just root heavily for Dallas, they are on fire and they play all the teams around us and don't play the Kings again.

Dallas plays San Jose twice
Dallas plays Calgary twice
Dallas plays Chicago once
Dallas plays Phoenix once

So unless Dallas decides to finish up 3-8-2 or something like that, we should probably cheer for them to just finish up strong and take the division, taking points away from teams like SJ, Calgary and Phoenix in the process. Plus with the Kings being essentially 6 points back of Dallas (because of ROW) and having no more head to head games it's almost impossible to realistically expect the Kings to catch Dallas. So..... GO STARS


Last edited by Herby: 03-12-2012 at 03:57 AM.
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Old
03-12-2012, 04:01 AM
  #87
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Also...

Anyone remember that game earlier in the year in Dallas when brain dead idiot Moreau took that late penalty that Dallas scored on to force OT, and later win it in OT. Some argued how it wasn't the end of the world, how it was just one game...blah blah blah

If the Kings win that game in regulation they have 77 points with 28 ROW wins. Dallas loses that game in regulation they have 79 points with 31 ROW. That essentially puts the Kings 3 points back of Dallas for the division instead of 6. One brain dead idiotic play by a guy who had no business ever even being on the roster could end up costing us a division championship.

Thanks for that wonderful contribution Ethan!

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Old
03-12-2012, 10:44 AM
  #88
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Kings still need help from Calgary, Phoenix and San Jose. They do not control their own destiny vs. those teams. Last night's game was crucial just to keep pace.

We need to root for regulation wins from Nashville, Edmonton and Anaheim tonight.

Updates from action last night.

Dallas – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 32 (-2)
Chicago – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 31 (-3)
San Jose – Games remaining: 15. Magic number: 30 (-2)
Phoenix – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 29 (-2)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 13 Elimination Number: 27
Calgary – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27 (-2)
Colorado – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 25 (-2)
Minnesota – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 19 (-4)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 19 (-2)
Edmonton – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 12 (-2)
Columbus – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 2 (-4)

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Chicago 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 5.3 to 35.5%

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Old
03-12-2012, 01:53 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Kings still need help from Calgary, Phoenix and San Jose. They do not control their own destiny vs. those teams.

We play THREE games versus San Jose!!! If the Kings win all three in regulation, it will be very difficult for San Jose to finish ahead of them.

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Old
03-12-2012, 02:04 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Kings still need help from Calgary, Phoenix and San Jose. They do not control their own destiny vs. those teams. Last night's game was crucial just to keep pace.

We need to root for regulation wins from Nashville, Edmonton and Anaheim tonight.

Updates from action last night.

Dallas – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 32 (-2)
Chicago – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 31 (-3)
San Jose – Games remaining: 15. Magic number: 30 (-2)
Phoenix – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 29 (-2)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 13 Elimination Number: 27
Calgary – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27 (-2)
Colorado – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 25 (-2)
Minnesota – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 19 (-4)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 19 (-2)
Edmonton – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 12 (-2)
Columbus – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 2 (-4)

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Chicago 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 5.3 to 35.5%
So what your saying is we have a chance.

We are playing better hockey then SJ and Min and Edm so that's a good thing, isn't it? We blew our game vs Det they didn't beat us more then we beat ourselves and we have been beating Ana allot.

I mean we may need some help but we have a pretty good chance all things considered don't we?

I also don't understand how getting two points made our chances at making the playoffs go down but I don't really agree with the entire method that is used in accumulating the samples used to make these stats so.....


Last edited by etherialone: 03-12-2012 at 02:12 PM.
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Old
03-12-2012, 02:09 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Phoenix – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 31
----------------------------------------------------------
Calgary – Games remaining: 14. Magic number: 29
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 14 Elimination Number: 29

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Lost to Detroit 3-4, playoff odds down 1.2 to 30.2%
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Phoenix – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 29 (-2)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 13 Elimination Number: 27
Calgary – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27 (-2)

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Chicago 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 5.3 to 35.5%
Why did the Kings number go down when they won?

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Old
03-12-2012, 02:29 PM
  #92
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I'd rather know what our magic number is to clinch.

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Old
03-12-2012, 02:51 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
I'd rather know what our magic number is to clinch.

I don't that's possible right now is it? With the kings not in a top 8 position, even if you project them to win out the rest of the year, there's a chance the teams ahead of them win out as well (except SJ) thus the Kings magic number can't exist until they are in the top 8 right?

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03-12-2012, 03:34 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger23 View Post
I don't that's possible right now is it? With the kings not in a top 8 position, even if you project them to win out the rest of the year, there's a chance the teams ahead of them win out as well (except SJ) thus the Kings magic number can't exist until they are in the top 8 right?
I think we play several teams ahead of us, assuming we win them all in regulation, what would our magic number be if those teams won all of their games except the ones we play against them.

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03-12-2012, 03:41 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger23 View Post
I don't that's possible right now is it? With the kings not in a top 8 position, even if you project them to win out the rest of the year, there's a chance the teams ahead of them win out as well (except SJ) thus the Kings magic number can't exist until they are in the top 8 right?
There's ALWAYS a magic number -- it's just sometimes more than the team in question can manage on their own, and sometimes more than can be gotten in the games that remain to all teams involved.

The key is that the magic number goes down with every point the Kings achieve AND with every point that the team currently in 8th or 9th (depending on whether the Kings are currently in or out of the playoff picture) loses. So, as long as the magic number of points is less than two times (the number of Kings games left + the number of critical team games left (in this case Phoenix)), it is mathematically possible that the Kings could win out AND the Coyotes lose enough points for the Kings to move ahead.

Right now, the 8th-place maximum points in the West is Phoenix's 104 (San Jose is 7th with 105, the Flames and Kings are tied for 9th with 102 each). If the Kings could get 105, that would push Phoenix out, so the Kings "magic points" number is 29. Twenty-six of those 29 points are under the Kings' direct control (13 games left), but to move ahead, they need the Coyotes to ALSO lose at least three potential standings points so that their max falls to 101.

If the magic number was 29 points, but there were only 14 games left total when you added the Kings AND Coyotes' remaining schedule, THEN the Kings would be eliminated -- but the "magic number" would technically exist... just be unachievable.

SO -- 29 points in Kings wins and Coyotes losses, in 26 games... so 14-11-1 in terms of "going the Kings way" (where a Coyotes win is a "loss", and a Coyotes regulation loss is a "win").

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03-12-2012, 03:45 PM
  #96
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There's ALWAYS a magic number -- it's just sometimes more than the team in question can manage on their own, and sometimes more than can be gotten in the games that remain to all teams involved.

The key is that the magic number goes down with every point the Kings achieve AND with every point that the team currently in 8th or 9th (depending on whether the Kings are currently in or out of the playoff picture) loses. So, as long as the magic number of points is less than two times (the number of Kings games left + the number of critical team games left (in this case Phoenix)), it is mathematically possible that the Kings could win out AND the Coyotes lose enough points for the Kings to move ahead.

Right now, the 8th-place maximum points in the West is Phoenix's 104 (San Jose is 7th with 105, the Flames and Kings are tied for 9th with 102 each). If the Kings could get 105, that would push Phoenix out, so the Kings "magic points" number is 29. Twenty-six of those 29 points are under the Kings' direct control (13 games left), but to move ahead, they need the Coyotes to ALSO lose at least three potential standings points so that their max falls to 101.

If the magic number was 29 points, but there were only 14 games left total when you added the Kings AND Coyotes' remaining schedule, THEN the Kings would be eliminated -- but the "magic number" would technically exist... just be unachievable.

SO -- 29 points in Kings wins and Coyotes losses, in 26 games... so 14-11-1 in terms of "going the Kings way" (where a Coyotes win is a "loss", and a Coyotes regulation loss is a "win").
If we can't get in, it's our own fault in my opinion. If we get a winning streak going of atleast 4 games, and then return to our current pace, odds are IMO we'll sneak in.

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03-12-2012, 03:55 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
I'd rather know what our magic number is to clinch.
There isn't one. The Kings are outside of a playoff spot and don't control their own destiny. If/when that changes, I can update the stats with that.

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03-12-2012, 03:56 PM
  #98
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There isn't one. The Kings are outside of a playoff spot and don't control their own destiny. If/when that changes, I can update the stats with that.
I tend to think along the lines of HansH personally, and I agree with his analysis.

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03-12-2012, 03:58 PM
  #99
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Tony is correct. Right now the only way to "clinch" in our own minds is to win every single game. But our fate is really in the hands of everyone else. The main issue is we don't play the teams we are competing against outside of San Jose, who we play three times, and even if we beat them, could still be out of the playoffs. It really rests with what the Sharks do. They play every single team we are competing against, twice against the Coyotes and Stars, once against the Flames and Avalanche, and then three times against us... Our season is pretty much in their hands.

The teams we are competing against are playing each other a lot down the stretch, so even if one loses, the others are still getting points... We can only realistically lose only 2-3 games out of the remaining 13 we have. Even then, it is possible to miss.

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03-12-2012, 03:58 PM
  #100
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I'd rather know what our magic number is to clinch.
13-0-0 and I guarantee the Kings make playoffs

Like others have said, there is no "magic number" right now, BUT 94 points gives us a >90% chance at playoffs according to sportsclub stats, that is the number I would run with, TBH.

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