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Elite talent in the draft

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Old
03-13-2012, 04:17 PM
  #26
FiveForDrawingBlood
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Originally Posted by LeMAD View Post
Between the picks #2 and #10 this year, there's not much difference at this point. So obviously "tanking" would be pointless, and finishing the season with strong performances would be a lot better for the future of the team than getting a better pick.
Exactly!

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03-13-2012, 04:19 PM
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Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
not sure where you're getting this. 1969 was the first entry draft.
In '68 and '69 you had Montreal picking first and they HAD to pick players from Quebec. That messes up the integrity of the study. The modern draft as we know it really begins in 1970. Moreover, I think the C-Form issue mixes things up. 1970 is a clean place to begin as it doesn't have the Montreal/Quebec issue and the C-Form problem is mostly gone.
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'll put him above players he's better than and below players he's not - HHOF be damned!
I think you're going to be attacked on this one dude. I think Anderson qualifies as an 8.5. But hey, it's your study.

I'll help defend some of your stuff but with Anderson... you're on your own.
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I definitely wasn't posting there at all in the season the Pens won the cup. I had entirely transitioned over here. But maybe I noted that they were the team that had followed the "path" most often followed by other winners.

We all thought the Pens were set up pretty well, and of course we were all right.

Remember how the naysayers and the leafs apologists would say "ya but how will they sign all those guys huh? they will never fit under the cap so how can all those players evar help them win the cup man???" - and we said, yeah, too many awesome young players, what a terrible problem to have, *insert rolleyes emoticon*

Four years later, they still have all those players.
It's no different here. Then again, we don't have Carmissimo.

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03-13-2012, 04:23 PM
  #28
Em Ancien
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeMAD View Post
Between the picks #2 and #10 this year, there's not much difference at this point. So obviously "tanking" would be pointless, and finishing the season with strong performances would be a lot better for the future of the team than getting a better pick.
Except that's not true. The dropoff after the 4th forward and the 4th defenseman is quite steep.

The dropoff after the first 2 prospects is quite big, though there's a darkhorse for 'elite' talent in Galchenyuk, but he hasn't played yet.

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03-13-2012, 04:27 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
In '68 and '69 you had Montreal picking first and they HAD to pick players from Quebec. That messes up the integrity of the study. The modern draft as we know it really begins in 1970. Moreover, I think the C-Form issue mixes things up. 1970 is a clean place to begin as it doesn't have the Montreal/Quebec issue and the C-Form problem is mostly gone.
But for my whole life, the NHL has treated that 1969 draft as the first modern draft. Something must be different between it and 1968.

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03-13-2012, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
But for my whole life, the NHL has treated that 1969 draft as the first modern draft. Something must be different between it and 1968.
Your whole life... is wrong.




































It's probably because you're a Leaf fan.

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03-13-2012, 04:48 PM
  #31
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Your whole life... is wrong.




































It's probably because you're a Leaf fan.

the NHL guide and record book my whole life has always called 1969 the "first" draft. Where do you see 1970 referred to as the first draft?

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03-13-2012, 05:21 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Forsead View Post
You really hasn't read my thread at all thanks !

I'm saying that even when comparing that around 32,5 % of elites talent have been taken in the top 5, it's huge and demonstrate the importance of that draft position !
You may want to see what percentage of all the players chosen in the top 5 are elite.

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03-13-2012, 05:49 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
You may want to see what percentage of all the players chosen in the top 5 are elite.
Easy I've counted between 28 to 39 (elites talents as listed) from 1979 to 2000 (22 drafts)

22*5=110 players have been chosen during thoses years in the top 5.

so between 25,5 % to 35,5 %

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03-13-2012, 06:03 PM
  #34
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Blue Jackets, Florida, Islanders among others been drafting high for a decade haven't done them too much good

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03-13-2012, 06:12 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
Blue Jackets, Florida, Islanders among others been drafting high for a decade haven't done them too much good
Nowhere I wrote that drafting in the top 5 or tanking for years was a free pass to having a good team. What I'm I see it's the fact that you get a huge change at getting a elite talent in drafting in the top 5. you still need to develop the guy and have some luck (especially with injuries). Also I'm pretty sure there is even a better chance lately in the last few years.

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03-13-2012, 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Forsead View Post
Nowhere I wrote that drafting in the top 5 or tanking for years was a free pass to having a good team. What I'm I see it's the fact that you get a huge change at getting a elite talent in drafting in the top 5. you still need to develop the guy and have some luck (especially with injuries). Also I'm pretty sure there is even a better chance lately in the last few years.
It's 50/50...for every Penguins or Black Hawks team who are terrible for 5 years drafting high works for them there is a Blue Jackets or Islanders which drafting high didn't work. The point is who wants to scrap on the bottom of the NHL for 5 years for 50% chance of it benefitting them?

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03-13-2012, 06:21 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
It's 50/50...for every Penguins or Black Hawks team who are terrible for 5 years drafting high works for them there is a Blue Jackets or Islanders which drafting high didn't work. The point is who wants to scrap on the bottom of the NHL for 5 years for 50% chance of it benefitting them?
as opposed to just being 7th-12th year after year after year?

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03-13-2012, 06:46 PM
  #38
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Off the top of my head, I can say that Stanley Cup winners over the past 10 years have had an abundance of top 5 picks in their lineups...often not their own choices.

Last year, though Seguin wasn't much of an impact, there was still 3rd overall Horton.

Chicago and Pittsburgh speak for themselves

Detroit is the exception to the rule, but success has allowed them to have first choice of free agents, and late draft steals from the 90s and early 00s have produced elite talent.

Anaheim didn't have their top 2 forward Bobby Ryan in the lineup, but had top 5 D Niedermeyer and Pronger there on the blueline...I believe Rob Niedermeyer was also a top 5 pick from Pronger's year.

Carolina had top 2 Staal, and even top 3 Ladd on the 4th line, and Aaron Ward on D.

The Lightning had Lecavalier

The Devils had the aforementioned Scott Niedermeyer

The Red Wings...well the Red Wings are the Red Wings

I think ten years or so is long enough...

As for the Blue Jackets, Islanders and Panthers....Idiots in charge can do a lot of damage....recently though...besides Tavares, the Isles have had two top 5 picks, but they were both #5, and not ready-made superstars. Give them a few years. The Panthers...well... bad luck I guess....that and getting little in trades for top 3 picks Horton, Bouwmeister, and Luongo (Isles pick).


Last edited by hotcarle: 03-13-2012 at 06:48 PM. Reason: Forgot Aaron Ward...how can you forget Aaron Ward?
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Old
03-13-2012, 06:50 PM
  #39
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
the NHL guide and record book my whole life has always called 1969 the "first" draft. Where do you see 1970 referred to as the first draft?
I haven't seen it referred to as the first draft anywhere.

I consider 1970 the beginning of the modern day draft because in '69 the Montreal Canadiens have the first pick that must be selected from Quebec. In 1970 everyone is on an even playing field and that's why I consider it the dawn of the modern draft.

I think your study should start from 1970 because the top five in '69 is compromised by the oddball rules. It's not a big deal, I just think you get a more accurate picture of the history of the draft.

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03-13-2012, 07:04 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
It's 50/50...for every Penguins or Black Hawks team who are terrible for 5 years drafting high works for them there is a Blue Jackets or Islanders which drafting high didn't work. The point is who wants to scrap on the bottom of the NHL for 5 years for 50% chance of it benefitting them?
Not true. Drafting high worked for the Islanders. It would've anyway... their idiot GM dealt away a Stanley Cup contending roster of picks and prospects that went on to become: Redden, Bertuzzi, Luongo, Chara, Jokinen, Spezza...

Those clubs didn't win DESPITE getting top picks, not because of it. The Isles are actually the poster boys for rebuilding. They weren't patient, dealt away picks and prospects and then sat in the cellar forever. The Leafs have done the same thing with Seguin, Rask and others...

Nobody claims that drafting high is all you have to do and you get a cup. Clubs have won without top picks on them. But top picks yield superstars and superstars yield cups. It only stands to reason that drafting high helps you to win cups and that's what we've seen.

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03-13-2012, 07:05 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by FiveForDrawingBlood View Post
It's 50/50...for every Penguins or Black Hawks team who are terrible for 5 years drafting high works for them there is a Blue Jackets or Islanders which drafting high didn't work. The point is who wants to scrap on the bottom of the NHL for 5 years for 50% chance of it benefitting them?
So basically, for every organization that cleans house, puts some money into their team and eventually gets out of the hole with elite talent at the forefront, there's a bunch of low budget teams who end up with bad scouting, rushes players, can't surround them with talent and leadership, makes boneheaded trades to try anything to get a few Ws, etc.?

Yeah, sounds about right.

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03-13-2012, 07:12 PM
  #42
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- Columbus has not drafted top-5 that many times.

Brassard, Voracek, Filatov, and Brule were all 6th overall draft picks, and all 4 of them are busts for that draft rank.

Rick Nash was a 1st overall draft pick. He was good enough to prevent them from drafting 1st overall again, but he was not good enough to make them a playoff team.

- New York Islanders are only allowed to spend to the cap floor. They don't surround their youth with competent veterans. They drafted 7th in 2006, had no 1st in 2007, 9th in 2008, 1st in 2009, 5th in 2010, and 5th in 2011.

- Edmonton was drafting 6th to 10th before the last few years. Within 2 years, they will be an elite team.

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03-13-2012, 07:24 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
- Columbus has not drafted top-5 that many times.

Brassard, Voracek, Filatov, and Brule were all 6th overall draft picks, and all 4 of them are busts for that draft rank.

Rick Nash was a 1st overall draft pick. He was good enough to prevent them from drafting 1st overall again, but he was not good enough to make them a playoff team.

- New York Islanders are only allowed to spend to the cap floor. They don't surround their youth with competent veterans. They drafted 7th in 2006, had no 1st in 2007, 9th in 2008, 1st in 2009, 5th in 2010, and 5th in 2011.

- Edmonton was drafting 6th to 10th before the last few years. Within 2 years, they will be an elite team.
Columbus has also done a terrific job killing their prospects. Exhibit A is Steve Mason. I've told the story a few times already about the scout who was on Center Ice and talked about what they did to ruin him. I can only assume they've done that with some of their other picks.

Sometimes you get the right player but he winds up in the wrong environment (Wickenheiser) gets hurt (Erik Johnson) or the club ruins or damages his development (Kyle Turris.)

Even still, top five picks pan out far more often than anywhere else.

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03-13-2012, 07:30 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by InTheWrist View Post
What's wrong with people who can not endure a little short term gloom (tank) for a highly probable top tier player in the draft...picking up meaningless points - which there are - at this stage serves the club no purpose...
So, you're also one of those who think this 1st rounder will turn a 15th in the east team into a contender... I see...

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03-13-2012, 07:38 PM
  #45
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So, you're also one of those who think this 1st rounder will turn a 15th in the east team into a contender... I see...
I don't see why you're so defensive over this. The fact is, the season's over. What's wrong with wanting a better choice?

No one thinks the player's going to single handedly put this team back on the map, especially next season, but getting a better player in the long-term is certainly better than a handful of meaningless victories.

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03-13-2012, 07:42 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
I don't see why you're so defensive over this. The fact is, the season's over. What's wrong with wanting a better choice?

No one thinks the player's going to single handedly put this team back on the map, especially next season, but getting a better player in the long-term is certainly better than a handful of meaningless victories.
defensive ? more like realist...

and yet, most talk about SHORT TERM pain/gloom...

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03-13-2012, 07:53 PM
  #47
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I don't see why you're so defensive over this. The fact is, the season's over. What's wrong with wanting a better choice?

No one thinks the player's going to single handedly put this team back on the map, especially next season, but getting a better player in the long-term is certainly better than a handful of meaningless victories.
His posts are one liners that don't include much thought behind them man. If you're looking for meaningful thoughts or insight from him, look elsewhere.

As to your main point, yes you are absolutely right. First, one player won't single-handedly win anything (notice of course that nobody in this thread claimed it would but hey why let that get in the way of another off topic one liner right?) Secondly, yes finishing lower DOES make a positive difference for us right now. Seems like a pretty simple concept but some folks go out of their way to pretend as though it's not fact.

Fact of the matter is that we're out of the playoffs. The fact of the matter is that getting a lower pick doesn't benefit us in any way. No matter how much people try to fool themselves into believing that a lower pick is better than a high one, they are flat out wrong. It makes no sense at all to want to have other teams draft ahead of you.

The crap about "not being a real fan" is of course a sham. If there's something wrong with drafting high, then the folks who are so against it shouldn't go to the games or celebrate in the parades if that pick leads us to a cup.

Of course if and when it happens, they won't want to talk about it then.

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03-13-2012, 09:49 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Columbus has also done a terrific job killing their prospects. Exhibit A is Steve Mason. I've told the story a few times already about the scout who was on Center Ice and talked about what they did to ruin him. I can only assume they've done that with some of their other picks.

Sometimes you get the right player but he winds up in the wrong environment (Wickenheiser) gets hurt (Erik Johnson) or the club ruins or damages his development (Kyle Turris.)

Even still, top five picks pan out far more often than anywhere else.
What happened with Steve Mason?

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Old
03-13-2012, 09:53 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
His posts are one liners that don't include much thought behind them man. If you're looking for meaningful thoughts or insight from him, look elsewhere.

As to your main point, yes you are absolutely right. First, one player won't single-handedly win anything (notice of course that nobody in this thread claimed it would but hey why let that get in the way of another off topic one liner right?) Secondly, yes finishing lower DOES make a positive difference for us right now. Seems like a pretty simple concept but some folks go out of their way to pretend as though it's not fact.

Fact of the matter is that we're out of the playoffs. The fact of the matter is that getting a lower pick doesn't benefit us in any way. No matter how much people try to fool themselves into believing that a lower pick is better than a high one, they are flat out wrong. It makes no sense at all to want to have other teams draft ahead of you.

The crap about "not being a real fan" is of course a sham. If there's something wrong with drafting high, then the folks who are so against it shouldn't go to the games or celebrate in the parades if that pick leads us to a cup.

Of course if and when it happens, they won't want to talk about it then.
A more legitimate argument:

Doing worse than teams like Edmonton, NYI, Toronto et cetera over the next 12 games will not come easy. You could argue that the Habs have underachieved this year, and that their natural tendency is to do a little bit better, that they have a cupcake schedule left, etc, and thus they should end up drafting 7th. The team is winning more with the recent additions of Markov and Staubitz.

Ergo, "tanking" would require instilling a losing culture in the team, which could have long-term costs.

I'm not sure the above argument is good, but I think it's legitimate.

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03-13-2012, 10:03 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
What happened with Steve Mason?
I've mentioned this a few times now. Scout was on Center Ice and talked about how Mason was ruined.

He plays with them as a rookie on a Ken Hitchcock team and does amazing. The kid's head gets big and he tells management to get Hitch out of his face. Management tells Hitch to cool it. Mason goes off and gets injured. Comes back to camp out of shape and the team does nothing about it. Apparently he still hasn't lost the weight.

He went on with more examples but basically the team spoiled him and then ruined him further by not getting a backup for him on a terrible team so he had to keep going out night after night getting smoked.

Not a very happy story.
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
A more legitimate argument:

Doing worse than teams like Edmonton, NYI, Toronto et cetera over the next 12 games will not come easy. You could argue that the Habs have underachieved this year, and that their natural tendency is to do a little bit better, that they have a cupcake schedule left, etc, and thus they should end up drafting 7th. The team is winning more with the recent additions of Markov and Staubitz.

Ergo, "tanking" would require instilling a losing culture in the team, which could have long-term costs.

I'm not sure the above argument is good, but I think it's legitimate.
I totally agree. There's nothing we can do about it at this point except maybe play Budaj a little more. Personally I think it was a mistake to bring back Markov as early as we did but it is what it is. Nothing we can do about it now and it won't surprise me at all if the Isles, Leafs, Minny and Carolina pass us.

You're right though, we can't tell the guys to tank. We just can't.

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