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Old
03-12-2012, 04:59 PM
  #101
HansH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
If we can't get in, it's our own fault in my opinion. If we get a winning streak going of atleast 4 games, and then return to our current pace, odds are IMO we'll sneak in.
The question wasn't about what the "odds are" - the question was about "magic numbers", which are about mathematical minimae and maximae. The FACT is that the Kings only control the destiny of 26 standings points in the race between them and Phoenix for 8th.

Now, if you look at the race between them and San Jose (currently with a 7th-place max and an 8th-place pace), the three remaining head-to-head games actually give the Kings control of 32 standings points (the 26 of their own, and the six they could force the Sharks to lose) -- and the Kings need 30 standings points to pass San Jose. So, in that specific race, yes, the Kings do still control their own destiny -- but in terms of "magic points", they do need teams like Phoenix to lose games -- and that's the textbook definition of "needing help".

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Old
03-12-2012, 05:00 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Like others have said, there is no "magic number" right now
Incorrect -- the magic number is 29 points. It's just the Kings only control 26 of those points.

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03-12-2012, 05:01 PM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
The question wasn't about what the "odds are" - the question was about "magic numbers", which are about mathematical minimae and maximae. The FACT is that the Kings only control the destiny of 26 standings points in the race between them and Phoenix for 8th.

Now, if you look at the race between them and San Jose (currently with a 7th-place max and an 8th-place pace), the three remaining head-to-head games actually give the Kings control of 32 standings points (the 26 of their own, and the six they could force the Sharks to lose) -- and the Kings need 30 standings points to pass San Jose. So, in that specific race, yes, the Kings do still control their own destiny -- but in terms of "magic points", they do need teams like Phoenix to lose games -- and that's the textbook definition of "needing help".
Yeah, I know. When I said "odds are" I'm just speaking normal tongue, not mathematician tongue, lol.

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Old
03-12-2012, 05:02 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
I tend to think along the lines of HansH personally, and I agree with his analysis.
I like his analysis as well, but it relies on other teams helping the Kings. They can't get in without help from other teams - as likely as that help may ultimately be (no team is going to go undefeated the rest of the way).

Assuming every team continues to earn points at their current rates so far this season, this is how the final standings project:


STL (C) 114
VAN (NW) 109
DAL (P) 96
DET (C) 108
NAS (C) 105
CHI (C) 96
PHX (P) 93
SJS (P) 92
---------------------------------------------------
CGY (NW) 90
LAK (P) 90

Leapfrogging San Jose is a VERY tall order even with the head-to-head games vs. them (the reality is that the Kings and Sharks are likely going to split those points or come close to it), hence the current 35% likelihood that it's possible. The Kings have to go on a significant run, which has yet to happen this season.


Last edited by TonySCV: 03-12-2012 at 05:10 PM.
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Old
03-12-2012, 05:04 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HansH View Post
Incorrect -- the magic number is 29 points. It's just the Kings only control 26 of those points.
Fair enough. But as you said in the other post, Kings do have 3 games against SJS, so technically they can control their own fate with those games. Honestly with the way PHO/SJS are slumping, I think that the Kings will make playoffs. Go Kings. Still feel as though the Kings are rejuvenated after the Carter trade.

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Old
03-12-2012, 05:09 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Fair enough. But as you said in the other post, Kings do have 3 games against SJS, so technically they can control their own fate with those games. Honestly with the way PHO/SJS are slumping, I think that the Kings will make playoffs. Go Kings. Still feel as though the Kings are rejuvenated after the Carter trade.
I actually just thought of another factor -- SJS and PHO play each other twice more in the remaining stretch, so it's an ironclad guarantee that at least two standings points will be lost in those games (and up to four), potentially distributed in many ways. But it comes down to the "worst case scenario" that one of those two teams will have no more than 103 points in the end. That doesn't change the "magic number" calculation at the current moment, but it does at least guarantee that at least one point will be knocked off it once those teams play each other.

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03-12-2012, 05:14 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
They can't get in without help from other teams -
Incorrect. If LA wins all three of the games versus San Jose they get in on their own merit.

EDIT: Forgot the tie break with Calgary. My bad.

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Old
03-12-2012, 05:17 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
I like his analysis as well, but it relies on other teams helping the Kings. They can't get in without help from other teams - as likely as that help may ultimately be (no team is going to go undefeated the rest of the way).
You're correct here -- I was just taking issue with the statement "there is no magic number", and wanting to phrase it "the magic number exists, but requires assistance from other teams to reach".
Quote:
Assuming every team continues to earn points at their current rates so far this season, this is how the final standings project:

GP W L OTL PTS SO PTS/G W-L PRJ
STL (C) 114
VAN (NW) 109
DAL (P) 96
DET (C) 108
NAS (C) 105
CHI (C) 96
PHX (P) 93
SJS (P) 92
---------------------------------------------------
CGY (NW) 90
LAK (P) 90

Leapfrogging San Jose is a VERY tall order even with the head-to-head games vs. them (the reality is that the Kings and Sharks are likely going to split those points or come close to it), hence the current 35% likelihood that it's possible. The Kings have to go on a significant run, which has yet to happen this season.
Totally agree with everything here, including the analysis. This exact kind of projection is what I do when I try to figure out the record the Kings would need in the remaining games... and right now, without depending on winning SPECIFIC games, that comes out to needing 93 points (as your chart above shows), which translates to a record of 8-4-1.

Like you, I am concerned at the lack of ability the team has shown to put together a consistent run all season. The closest they've managed has been the four-game winning streak in October on the strength of Quick's ASTOUNDING shutout streak, and the 6-0-3 stretch in December/Jan (the last Stevens game and the first 8 Sutter games). I'm beginning to think for the Kings that the fabled "winning streak" is like a unicorn -- always talked about, but rarely if ever actually seen...

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Old
03-12-2012, 05:19 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
Incorrect. If LA wins all three of the games versus San Jose they get in on their own merit.

EDIT: Forgot the tie break with Calgary. My bad.
Yeah, even if they blank San Jose, they still have to rely on San Jose beating those teams, and many of them returning the favor by beating each other in the right order, all the while losing to their non-conference opponents... We are in significant ****. It is a brain dead answer, but we need to win just about all of our remaining games and then hope someone trips. Because the odds aren't even for us, even if we win them all, the odds are that someone else will be right there with us out of the 4 other competitive teams.

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Old
03-12-2012, 06:21 PM
  #110
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Yup.

Reading more of your posts makes it even more obvious.

If Dallas goes 8-3-2 we have alot better chance of making the playoffs than if they go 5-6-2.

GO STARS!!

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Old
03-14-2012, 12:11 PM
  #111
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Updates from action last night.

Dallas – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 30 (-2)
Chicago – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 29 (-2)
San Jose – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27 (-3)
Phoenix – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 26 (-3)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 12 Elimination Number: 25 (-2)
Calgary – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 25 (-2)
Colorado – Games remaining: 11. Elimination number: 23 (-2)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 16 (-3)
Minnesota – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 15 (-4)
Edmonton – Games remaining: 13. Elimination number: 8 (-4)
Columbus – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: ELIMINATED

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances
Beat Detroit 5-2, playoff odds up 8.6 to 41.8%

Feel free to change if inaccurate.


Last edited by TonySCV: 03-14-2012 at 06:32 PM. Reason: fixed CGY and LA
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Old
03-14-2012, 01:41 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
Feel free to change if inaccurate.
Just an observation -- I think you meant to put "Elimination Number" for all the teams currently on the outside looking in, but right now that designation is only next to the Kings.

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03-14-2012, 02:24 PM
  #113
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At the rate teams like Phoenix, San Jose, and Chicago blow up and lose 7-8 games in a row...I would say we have a better chance then statistics would imply.


That's why they don't play the game on paper gentlemen. Still lots of hockey left, and lots of unexpected things could happen.

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Old
03-14-2012, 06:41 PM
  #114
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Someone can correct my math if I'm wrong, but so long as LA is on the outside looking in, their elimination number will always drop by -2 whenever they play (otherwise it would never drop). If they win, obviously everyone else's number also drops by at least -2 (-3 or -4 if they play and lose in OT or regulation respectively).

What you want to see is the #s for the teams the Kings are chasing dropping by more than -2. This is effectively how the Kings gain ground vs. other teams.

- T

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03-14-2012, 07:24 PM
  #115
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The nice thing is that even though we are on the outside looking in, we play SJ 3 times and Calgary once more. The Kings are in complete control of their own destiny, as long as they play as well as SJ, Cal, and Col while winning those 4 games mentioned above then we're in.

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Old
03-14-2012, 08:30 PM
  #116
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Rest of the way schedule for teams in the hunt. 2 spots available for 5 teams:

7. Phoenix — 5 home, 7 road — 6 vs. playoff, 6 vs. non-playoff
8. San Jose — 8 home, 5 road — 7 vs. playoff, 6 vs. non-playoff
9. Calgary — 7 home, 5 road — 5 vs. playoff, 7 vs. non-playoff
10. Kings — 6 home, 6 road — 7 vs. playoff, 5 vs. non-playoff
11. Colorado — 4 home, 7 road — 7 vs. playoff, 4 vs. non-playoff

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Old
03-15-2012, 04:46 PM
  #117
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Updates from action last night.

Chicago – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 29
Dallas – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 28 (-2)
San Jose – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27
Phoenix – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 26 (-0)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 12 Elimination Number: 25
Calgary – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 25
Colorado – Games remaining: 10. Elimination number: 23 (-0)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 11. Elimination number: 16 (-0)
Minnesota – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 15
Edmonton – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 8 (-0)
Columbus – ELIMINATED

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

Not a good night overall for the Kings. Every team they were chasing that played, save for Dallas, won.

Quisp's take on the rest of the way schedule/results:

http://www.jewelsfromthecrown.com/20...l-all-play-out

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03-15-2012, 06:06 PM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
Rest of the way schedule for teams in the hunt. 2 spots available for 5 teams:

7. Phoenix — 5 home, 7 road — 6 vs. playoff, 6 vs. non-playoff
8. San Jose — 8 home, 5 road — 7 vs. playoff, 6 vs. non-playoff
9. Calgary — 7 home, 5 road — 5 vs. playoff, 7 vs. non-playoff
10. Kings — 6 home, 6 road — 7 vs. playoff, 5 vs. non-playoff
11. Colorado — 4 home, 7 road — 7 vs. playoff, 4 vs. non-playoff
3 Spots available for Pacific teams.

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Old
03-16-2012, 09:25 AM
  #119
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I hate SJ

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03-16-2012, 12:48 PM
  #120
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We've finally tied San Jose with # of games played. We have 2 games in hand on Phoenix.

Updates from action last night.

Chicago – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 29
Dallas – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 28
San Jose – Games remaining: 12. Magic number: 27(-0)
Phoenix – Games remaining: 10. Magic number: 24 (-2)
Calgary – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 25 (-0)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 12 Elimination Number: 25
Colorado – Games remaining: 9. Elimination number: 22 (-1)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 11. Elimination number: 16
Minnesota – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 15
Edmonton – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 8
Columbus – ELIMINATED

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number

So-so night overall for the Kings. Calgary won in regulation (a 3 point game would have been terrible). San Jose won (boo), but in a shootout (yay), so no ROW for them.

Quisp's take on the rest of the way schedule/results:

http://www.jewelsfromthecrown.com/20...l-all-play-out

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03-16-2012, 01:28 PM
  #121
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Group A:
Vancouver, St.Louis, Nashville, Boston

Group B:
San Jose(3), Calgary

Group C:
Edmonton(2), Anaheim, Minnesota

The Kings almost have to get 8 points out of group C to have a chance. You figure the Kings need at least 4 of the possible 8 points in group A, but at least they're not in the race with any of those teams, so there is some margin for error. Obviously group B is huge, and the Kings probably have to come out of those 4 games with at least a 4 point advantage.

The playoffs probably started a while ago for the Kings, but they certainly start tonight.

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Old
03-16-2012, 01:44 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingsFan7824 View Post
Group A:
Vancouver, St.Louis, Nashville, Boston

Group B:
San Jose(3), Calgary

Group C:
Edmonton(2), Anaheim, Minnesota

The Kings almost have to get 8 points out of group C to have a chance. You figure the Kings need at least 4 of the possible 8 points in group A, but at least they're not in the race with any of those teams, so there is some margin for error. Obviously group B is huge, and the Kings probably have to come out of those 4 games with at least a 4 point advantage.

The playoffs probably started a while ago for the Kings, but they certainly start tonight.
We have a much better chance beating San Jose, Nashville, Vancouver, than we do beating Edmonton even once.

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03-16-2012, 01:49 PM
  #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingsFan7824 View Post
Group A:
Vancouver, St.Louis, Nashville, Boston

Group B:
San Jose(3), Calgary

Group C:
Edmonton(2), Anaheim, Minnesota

The Kings almost have to get 8 points out of group C to have a chance. You figure the Kings need at least 4 of the possible 8 points in group A, but at least they're not in the race with any of those teams, so there is some margin for error. Obviously group B is huge, and the Kings probably have to come out of those 4 games with at least a 4 point advantage.

The playoffs probably started a while ago for the Kings, but they certainly start tonight.
If you put every game we played this season into those groups, I think you'll find we got more points playing "Group A" teams than "Group C" teams.

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03-16-2012, 01:54 PM
  #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KingsFan7824 View Post
Group A:
Vancouver, St.Louis, Nashville, Boston

Group B:
San Jose(3), Calgary

Group C:
Edmonton(2), Anaheim, Minnesota

The Kings almost have to get 8 points out of group C to have a chance. You figure the Kings need at least 4 of the possible 8 points in group A, but at least they're not in the race with any of those teams, so there is some margin for error. Obviously group B is huge, and the Kings probably have to come out of those 4 games with at least a 4 point advantage.

The playoffs probably started a while ago for the Kings, but they certainly start tonight.

The way Boston is closing out the season, they're probably Group C.

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03-16-2012, 01:55 PM
  #125
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I like your thinking. Here's how I'd distribute it from a points perspective. 16 points are needed out of 12 remaining games for the Kings to (likely) make the playoffs:

Group A:
Vancouver, St.Louis, Nashville, Boston - 4 points of 8

Group B:
San Jose(3), Calgary - 6 points of 8

Group C:
Edmonton(2), Anaheim, Minnesota - 6 points of 8

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