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ATD 2012 - Draft Thread VIII

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Old
03-15-2012, 02:43 PM
  #101
Hawkey Town 18
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jkrx is skipped, PMing Bench Brawl. I'm up after him. Who can take a list?

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03-15-2012, 02:44 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Chara dealt with the mojority of other teams top lines and either Redden played with him (which would be beneficial) or Redden drew the easier Assisgnment (Which would also be beneficial)
Once Chara had developed into the elite defenseman he is today, that would be true. Chara only really started to come into his own in 2004. That's only 1.5-2 seasons playing behind Chara.

Before Chara, Redden was their #1 match-up defenseman. I don't think he was used that way after the lock-out though.

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Looking through Jovo's teammates in Vancouver, Jovo to me looks like he would have had the toughest assignments.
Mattias Ohlund was Vancouver's #1 match-up defeneman for Jovanovski's entire time there.

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03-15-2012, 02:45 PM
  #103
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Yeah, Jovo was usually on the ice with Naslund.

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03-15-2012, 02:47 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Redden was on the top pairing with Jason York from 98-99 to 00-01, before Chara. Not sure what matchups they faced or how much they played with Ottawa's top line, I wasn't watching for that at the time. But Ottawa didn't have a clear shutdown pairing apart from Redden-York.
Very interesting stuff, so when looking at his ATOI it is actually lower when he was paired with York on that shutdown pairing. This goes along with what I was saying (tough minutes etc..)


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Redden partnered with Chara for much of 01-02 and I expect they drew the tough assignments.

From 02-03 to 05-06 Chara's pairing faced top lines. Redden's usually didn't. Same thing after Chara left - another pairing faced top lines.

So for the majority of his time In Ottawa he was not paired against top lines. So his R value of whatever you want to call it is pretty misleading.

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03-15-2012, 02:49 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Quite simply the ATOI stat is not as powerful as you sometimes make it out to be. XXXX from Vancouver played 3-25 seconds or so more PPG then Jovo but Jovo was consistently selected to represent Vancouver ahead of said defenceman.
Youíre talking about Ohlund, who was drafted over 100 picks ago, and is the superior player. The TOI indicates this too.

And it was not always just 3-25 seconds. Sometimes minutes more. Over the time they were on the same team together, Ohlund averaged 1.55 minutes more per game.

Quote:
Also regarding the bolded, don't you think that having a teammate like Chara would have a massive impact on those numbers? It's not that simple at all. Posting these figures are pretty much useless unless you want to back them up by including what type of match ups each defenseman would have and who on their teams they played with (offensive line and D Partner)
Yes, having a teammate like Chara would have an impact on these numbers, but like overpass said, they played together for one season. So the impact is pretty minimal.

Quote:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Chara dealt with the mojority of other teams top lines and either Redden played with him (which would be beneficial) or Redden drew the easier Assisgnment (Which would also be beneficial)
Overpass addressed this as well. It should be noted that a far inferior defenseman would actually post worse GF/GA totals despite the easier competition, but Reddenís were far better, suggesting he was grossly overqualified for that duty.

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Looking through Jovo's teammates in Vancouver, Jovo to me looks like he would have had the toughest assignments.
You donít know much about Ohlund Ė do you?

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Regarding their later years. It still looks as though Jovo would handle the top lines of opposing teams in Phoenix, and we all saw what Redden did in New York/Connecticut.
Iíll check the QUALCOMP numbers on that, because I donít actually know. Redden still got good icetime his first year in NY. He might have been perceived to be performing badly in part because of the players he was up against. Or not. Just speculating.

You have to understand that this is a massive gap in r-on and r-off numbers. Little things like youíre mentioning can explain away little bits of it, but never all of it.

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Old
03-15-2012, 02:50 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
He's saying that Jovo was a hard-hitting offensive specialist, and because of that, he got a lot of award recognition, which masked his defensive deficiencies and overall just made him look better than he actually was.
I have several quotes from 3 different sources calling Jovanovski one of the leagues top two way defenseman so anything you say is deemed wrong, even if people have watched him play.

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03-15-2012, 02:58 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
So for the majority of his time In Ottawa he was not paired against top lines. So his R value of whatever you want to call it is pretty misleading.
....you missed the part where Jovo was in the exact same situation in his prime.

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03-15-2012, 02:58 PM
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
I have several quotes from 3 different sources calling Jovanovski one of the leagues top two way defenseman so anything you say is deemed wrong, even if people have watched him play.
Jovanovski was too inconsistent defensively to be reliable. It's mainly because he's stupid. There's a reason his nickname is Special Ed.

My old man actually coached Jovanovski, so I'll ask him what he thinks....

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03-15-2012, 02:59 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Youíre talking about Ohlund, who was drafted over 100 picks ago, and is the superior player. The TOI indicates this too.

And it was not always just 3-25 seconds. Sometimes minutes more. Over the time they were on the same team together, Ohlund averaged 1.55 minutes more per game.
Are you including those seasons where Ohlund missed upwards and over 30+ games a season?

Yes, having a teammate like Chara would have an impact on these numbers, but like overpass said, they played together for one season. So the impact is pretty minimal.



Overpass addressed this as well. It should be noted that a far inferior defenseman would actually post worse GF/GA totals despite the easier competition, but Reddenís were far better, suggesting he was grossly overqualified for that duty.



You donít know much about Ohlund Ė do you?



Iíll check the QUALCOMP numbers on that, because I donít actually know. Redden still got good icetime his first year in NY. He might have been perceived to be performing badly in part because of the players he was up against. Or not. Just speculating.

You have to understand that this is a massive gap in r-on and r-off numbers. Little things like youíre mentioning can explain away little bits of it, but never all of it.[/QUOTE]


Your way of looking at entire careers is in full display when comparing these two.

Redden was the laughing stock of the NHL in his last two seasons and was demoted to the AHL. Do we just ignore that portion of his career?

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Old
03-15-2012, 03:00 PM
  #110
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les canadiens de montreal select Craig Conroy

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Old
03-15-2012, 03:01 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
....you missed the part where Jovo was in the exact same situation in his prime.
You're comparing Ohlund to Chara, and not taking into consideration the amount of games Ohlund missed? You missed that part conveniently.


Article regarding Reddens last couple of years in Ottawa:

Quote:
Then, at the end of that 05/06 season, the Senators organization kept Redden and let Zdeno Chara walk. And things just haven't really been the same since.

Redden started making sloppy defensive plays, and appeared slower. His stats dropped in pretty much every category. Fans started to turn on him, and used him as a scapegoat for all of the team's struggles. Rumors of various problems in his personal life surfaced, and deep pangs of regret filled the organization for ever letting Chara leave. Redden faced extensive amounts of criticism, and the team tried to trade him on several occasions. Redden used his no-movement clause to refuse both trades, stating a desire to stay in Ottawa and help the team win its first Stanley Cup.
http://www.silversevensens.com/2009/...of-wade-redden


Last edited by markrander87: 03-15-2012 at 03:07 PM.
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Old
03-15-2012, 03:02 PM
  #112
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not that this part of Redden's career is hugely relevant, but QUALCOMP says that in 2009, Staal had easily the toughest competition and Paul Mara easily the worst. the other four defensemen were all very close in the middle.

In 2010, it was Staal and Girardi clearly on top for QUALCOMP, Del Zotto and Gilroy clearly on the bottom, and Redden and Rozsival right in the middle.

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Old
03-15-2012, 03:04 PM
  #113
Hawkey Town 18
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With the 723rd pick the Chicago Shamrocks select Metro Prystai, F

We think he will be a good spare because he is able to play all 3 forward positions and has experience playing on both a scoring and checking line.


Metro Prystai quote from Joe Pelletier's site
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They used me as a swing man because I could play all three forward positions, though I spent most of the time on right wing. For a while I was with Ted Lindsay and Gordie Howe, then on a checking line with Marty Pavelich and Tony Leswick, then with Alex Delvecchio and Johnny Wilson

PMing next GM

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Old
03-15-2012, 03:06 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Are you including those seasons where Ohlund missed upwards and over 30+ games a season?
Yes, why wouldn't I? I simply added up all their GP and minutes for that 8-year period. It is a "true" average, not one that disproportionately counts an injury-riddled season, in case you were wondering.

also, if you look at guys who have injury riddled seasons it often shows up negatively in their ice time, as they play hurt and also get worked back into the lineup gradually when they come back.

Quote:
Your way of looking at entire careers is in full display when comparing these two.

Redden was the laughing stock of the NHL in his last two seasons and was demoted to the AHL. Do we just ignore that portion of his career?
Dude, if you want me to look at prime numbers only, I can do that too. Based on the massive gap in their career numbers, I already know what this will look like.

Redden was only a "laughingstock" because of his contract relative to his performance. In 2009 he was still a very good NHL player. In 2010 he was average. Still now, he is an NHL-caliber player who no one wants to pay $6.5M to play in the NHL.

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03-15-2012, 03:07 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Redden was the laughing stock of the NHL in his last two seasons and was demoted to the AHL. Do we just ignore that portion of his career?
He was a top-pairing guy in his second last season. Redden was demoted due to his contract. If he was making 2 million, he'd be in the NHL right now. He's no longer a top-4 defenseman, but most NHL teams would love to have him for the right price.


Jovanovski took longer to develop into a legit #1 defenseman than Redden did. Do we ignore his first few years of mediocre play?

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03-15-2012, 03:07 PM
  #116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
You're comparing Ohlund to Chara, and not taking into consideration the amount of games Ohlund missed? You missed that part conveniently.
I'm not an idiot, I wouldn't calculate a player's average TOI in the way you assume I would.

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03-15-2012, 03:17 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'm not an idiot, I wouldn't calculate a player's average TOI in the way you assume I would.

So in these 30+ games a season that Ohlund missed who was playing these number one minutes?

Also a lot of us (some who have even Pm'd me) agree that you can save your QUALCOMP numbers we all saw Redden play with our own two eyes, we don't need any formulas to judge those years.


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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
He was a top-pairing guy in his second last season. Redden was demoted due to his contract. If he was making 2 million, he'd be in the NHL right now. He's no longer a top-4 defenseman, but most NHL teams would love to have him for the right price.


Jovanovski took longer to develop into a legit #1 defenseman than Redden did. Do we ignore his first few years of mediocre play?

Really?

Jovanovski was a beast in Florida He made the NHL All rookie team and was a monster as a 19 year old when they made it to the cup finals.


Last edited by markrander87: 03-15-2012 at 03:27 PM.
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03-15-2012, 03:18 PM
  #118
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Yeah, when Svehla was picked and people talked about his play against Lindros, it was Jovo I was thinking of when I questioned it. Jovo was the first player to physically stand down Lindros. He took away Lindros' advantage.

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03-15-2012, 03:23 PM
  #119
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Also you are all pretty sure that Ohlund was so surperior to Jovo in Vancouver.

During the 6 full seasons Jovo played in Vancouver he won the "Babe Pratt Award" as the teams best defenseman 3 times over Ohlund. With Ohlund winning it the other 3 times, no such evidence that he was the better defenseman over Jovanovski.

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03-15-2012, 03:26 PM
  #120
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Redden's play definitely declined from early 2007 on. He was moving slower, reacting slower, and making more mistakes.

At the end of the 2008 season the consensus of the Ottawa media was that Redden would have to take a major pay cut to return, and that 3M per year might be fair. I agreed with that. He wasn't playing like a top dman at all.

The contract the Rangers gave him was incredible. Redden didn't get a pay cut at all, and he got six years. Where were the Rangers' pro scouts on that one?

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03-15-2012, 03:32 PM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
So in these 30+ games a season that Ohlund missed who was playing these number one minutes?
Oh, I see your angle. You're actually exaggerating Ohlund's games missed. From 1999-2006 he missed 92 games, basically one season worth. Who played top minutes in his place? Probably Jovanovski. After all, he wasn't incompetent, right?

So if your argument is that Jovanovski's numbers suck so bad because for about one season of games out of 8 he had to play #1 minutes, it's an argument you should probably just not bother making.

Quote:
Also a lot of us (some who have even Pm'd me) agree that you can save your QUALCOM numbers we all saw Redden play with our own two eyes, we don't need any formulas to judge those years.
Oh, now you're one of those people that gets mysterious secret PMs from unnamed sources that anonymously support your position and make your argument stronger? Join the club!

Quote:
Really?

Jovanovski was a beast in Florida He made the NHL All rookie team and was a monster as a 19 year old when they made it to the cup finals.
He was a big hitter but like any young defenseman, he still had a lot of work to do. He was playing well behind Svehla, Carker and Murphy in the rotation. His big hits certainly earned him a lot of attention though - including my own.

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03-15-2012, 03:32 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
The contract the Rangers gave him was incredible. Redden didn't get a pay cut at all, and he got six years. Where were the Rangers' pro scouts on that one?
Begging Glen Sather to listen to reason, I assume

That contract obviously looks even worse now than it did at the time, but he was 31 years old just a year or two removed from being a legit #1 defenseman, so I guess it wasn't out of the question that he could return to form.

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03-15-2012, 03:34 PM
  #123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post

During the 6 full seasons Jovo played in Vancouver he won the "Babe Pratt Award" as the teams best defenseman 3 times over Ohlund. With Ohlund winning it the other 3 times, no such evidence that he was the better defenseman over Jovanovski.
The trophy is awarded by fan vote and fans tend to favour flashy offensive defenseman

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03-15-2012, 03:40 PM
  #124
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Oh, I see your angle. You're actually exaggerating Ohlund's games missed. From 1999-2006 he missed 92 games, basically one season worth. Who played top minutes in his place? Probably Jovanovski. After all, he wasn't incompetent, right?

So if your argument is that Jovanovski's numbers suck so bad because for about one season of games out of 8 he had to play #1 minutes, it's an argument you should probably just not bother making.
So the lock out just doesn't matter? Get with it


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Oh, now you're one of those people that gets mysterious secret PMs from unnamed sources that anonymously support your position and make your argument stronger? Join the club!
Are you really THAT nieve?

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He was a big hitter but like any young defenseman, he still had a lot of work to do. He was playing well behind Svehla, Carker and Murphy in the rotation. His big hits certainly earned him a lot of attention though - including my own.
Nalyd already touched on this, Shutting down Lindros yet playing behind those mentioned dmen in the rotation? Nice logic.

Any response to Overpass clear mentioning of Redden playing bad from early 2007 on? Or does it not add up with your QUALCOM numbers.

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03-15-2012, 03:41 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87 View Post
Also you are all pretty sure that Ohlund was so surperior to Jovo in Vancouver.
Yes. He was given more minutes by all coaches they played for, despite obviously inferior offensive contributions, and played against the opposition's best. He played more than a minute more per game, and that is closer to 2 minutes if PP time is removed.

If Jovo played more minutes in Ohlund's absense, then his TOI figures may also be a tad inflated compared to what they would "ideally" be.

Let me guess, the years Jovo won the top defenseman award included 2001 and 2003, when Ohlund missed 17+ games?

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