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[EDM/MIN] Tom Gilbert Traded For Nick Schultz - Part 2

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Old
03-16-2012, 01:37 AM
  #526
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Other than not being physical like Jason Smith. Schultz addition kind of reminds me of when we acquired Smith from the Leafs.
this is exactly who he reminds me of, i was going to post the same thing.

i love having this guy on our team, he is pretty much as advertised, mature, steady and has some offense in his game too, which is a nice surprise.

now if we could only trade for Justin Schultz and Jeff Schultz just to ******* with people.

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03-16-2012, 01:48 AM
  #527
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Gilbert was arguably the team's best defenseman this year when we traded him. There is very little to suggest that Schultz is our #1.

I'm not bashing Schultz, and I've suggested going after him for years. I just don't think trading Gilbert for him put us any farther ahead.
Smid is the Oilers best defenseman all year long.

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03-16-2012, 01:58 AM
  #528
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Originally Posted by SeriousBusiness View Post
Exactly. Do we need a PMD? Yes. Was Gilbert a PMD? No. Was he a stay at home defenseman? No. Did we need a solid stay at home defenseman? Yes. Is Schultz? Yes.
Great post.

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03-16-2012, 08:24 AM
  #529
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Gilbert was arguably the team's best defenseman this year when we traded him. There is very little to suggest that Schultz is our #1.

I'm not bashing Schultz, and I've suggested going after him for years. I just don't think trading Gilbert for him put us any farther ahead.
Gilbert wasn't even close to Edmonton's best defenseman this year imo. That would be Smid.

And it really wasn't even close.

Gilbert was a jack ofall trades and master of none. There is no excellence in his game. He was just kind of good at all aspects. But is there anybody here who would argue that when Gilbert went into the corner or behind the net that you knew he would come out with the puck? Or that you knew that when the game was on the line that Gilbert would make sure that the guy in front of the net would be covered and his stick tied up?

I know I didn't.

So was it his 18 points that made him so valuable?

I don't want to dump on Gilbert because he was a good and loyal soldier for this team for many years but the nonsense being generated out of some of the blogs that purport to cover Oilers hockey is way over the top on this one.

If they would take the two minutes necessary to understand the numbers they are using to make the argument that Gilbert is a better dman than Schultz - leaving out the more important argument of who is even a better fit -they might realize just how much they are embarrassing themselves by relying on highly questionable assumptions that would get you a failing mark in most high school logic classes.

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03-16-2012, 08:46 AM
  #530
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I like the way Schultz has been playing on this team calm, cool, steady, hits makes smart passes. Just what the doctor ordered, now if we can get two more just like him we will be laughing.

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03-16-2012, 09:13 AM
  #531
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Originally Posted by theoil View Post
Gilbert wasn't even close to Edmonton's best defenseman this year imo. That would be Smid.

And it really wasn't even close.
What you would be saying would be true if you flipped the names Gilbert and Smid. In terms of playing the other teams top line, preventing chances against, and creating chances for, Gilbert was head and shoulders the Oilers' best defenseman.

behindthenet.ca can give you the exact quantification of this.

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If they would take the two minutes necessary to understand the numbers they are using to make the argument that Gilbert is a better dman than Schultz - leaving out the more important argument of who is even a better fit -they might realize just how much they are embarrassing themselves by relying on highly questionable assumptions that would get you a failing mark in most high school logic classes.
"Who is a better fit" is a nonsense argument, so please keep your statements about "high school logic classes" to yourself. The vast majority of high schools don't even have logic classes, and if they did I am sure that passing such a class would be relatively easy given the standard for passing any high high school class barely extends beyond basic literacy and a modicum of work ethic. You're essentially just making an obnoxious, condescending and illogical argument about logic--criticizing people who actually put critical thought in to things rather than swallowing the junk put forth by the moronic Edmonton media, themselves parrots of the most unsuccessful regime in post lockout hockey..

How about you use your "logic" and describe how Schultz is the better fit despite being a left handed defender on a team full of them, and despite being fifth out of six defensemen in minutes most nights on this team while Gilbert was usually first. Schultz is also older while the team is in "year two of a 7 year rebuild." Oh yeah, I forgot, Schultz is better defensively--interesting that both Minnesota and Edmonton used Gilbert more against the other teams' top lines.

So what makes a player "a good fit" anyways? Was Rob Zamuner a better fit on Canada's shutdown line than Toewes in their respective primes? Of course not. Good players are better than average players, and great ones are better than good ones. Balancing skill sets is of secondary concern to actually having some decent hockey players on your team. The end goal is the same for any player: prevent chances against while creating chances for. This should go without saying, but I suppose "high school logic" is beyond me.

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03-16-2012, 09:18 AM
  #532
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I have to say that I wasn't a big fan of this trade when it went down (just seemed like kind of a lateral-at-best move), but I'm coming around. Gilbert was the team's 2nd best defenceman on most nights (and at times, the best defenceman) and I'd thought he'd turned the corner, but so far I've been impressed with Schultz. Good skater, is able to get back pretty effortlessly and doesn't make glaring mistakes.

I still think Gilbert will turn out better than he's shown so far in Minnesota. He seems like the kind of player that needs time to adjust to a different scheme (he doesn't seem to have that high of a hockey IQ).

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03-16-2012, 09:25 AM
  #533
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Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
What you would be saying would be true if you flipped the names Gilbert and Smid. In terms of playing the other teams top line, preventing chances against, and creating chances for, Gilbert was head and shoulders the Oilers' best defenseman.

behindthenet.ca can give you the exact quantification of this.


Quantification?


Funny that Gilbert and Smid played as a pairing for pretty much the better part of the season yet it is Gilbert who faced the toughs!

Hilarious and very, very sad all at the same time.

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03-16-2012, 09:52 AM
  #534
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Its a really good question.

Answer: Formerly people like Staples plus whoever else helps out with it.

But its garbage in garbage out. AS it was with his infamous "errors" stat.

Years ago here Staples was a poster and there were long drawn out discussions on his "errors" stat.
Staples being a fellow that couldn't adequately understand that giving a Centre an "error" each time they lost a faceoff that led to a GA was going to produce significant noise in the data as compared to the analysis with other players. Or that D were involved in many more puck battles and so would lose more puck battles leading to GA
Couldn't this be adjusted by comparing like players though? Centres against centres (or those who take faceoffs against those who take faceoffs), defenceman against defenceman?

Quote:
Heres another one:

I noted often that a player like Omark who never gets anywhere near his own net or battles in own zone rarely got credited with an error. He did great on this stat. For the fact being you won't find a player on this team that is more averse to doing anything in own zone. The players that were getting credited with errors leading to GA were the ones most likely being involved in a battle for puck in own zone. With the players you'd want to have on your team often being those that the errors stat would make out to be the worst offenders.
But if each players on the ice has a certain defensive responsibility, wasn't Staples able to identify who a player like Omark should have been taking?

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I would take some of these stats and apply the inverse of what they are indicating..

The Nielson numbers are better, but again its a case of who's inputting the numbers. That Staples is even presenting data on Schultz compared to other players after 3GP completely belies any operative understanding of statistics.
I do agree that the data sample is FAR to small at this point to make any kind of conclusion

(any idea what thread that long drawn out disucssion was in, I must of missed it and I find hf search to as useless as **** on a bull)

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03-16-2012, 10:16 AM
  #535
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Im so sick of behindthenet.ca my god. When was the last time any advanced stats have been correct on this board? Its been a long long time. Them stats are complete and utter garbage.

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03-16-2012, 10:18 AM
  #536
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Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
I suppose people making comments like this are surprised that some Oilers fans are frustrated by the fact that our biggest weakness got worse by trading a superior defenseman for an average one?
I get the feeling you're basing a lot of your argument on minutes played. Yes, Gilbert is playing more minutes then Schultz, but I don't think we can presume why. Perhaps there's politics at play, perhaps Renney is intent on slowly breaking Schultz into the Oiler's (Ha!) system, perhaps Renny feels that he can't break up Petry & Smid and needs a babysitter on the third pairing.

Just as it's a bit ignorant to point to Gilbert's 0 points vs Schultz's 4 points since the trade to claim that Schultz is the better offensive defenceman, I think it's foolish to think that the minutes Schultz is playing now is where he ultimately slots into the lineup. Let's give both players at least a season to settle into their new roles and then maybe have a look at who is the better fit?

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03-16-2012, 10:20 AM
  #537
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Gilbert wasn't even close to Edmonton's best defenseman this year imo. That would be Smid.

And it really wasn't even close.

Gilbert was a jack ofall trades and master of none. There is no excellence in his game. He was just kind of good at all aspects. But is there anybody here who would argue that when Gilbert went into the corner or behind the net that you knew he would come out with the puck? Or that you knew that when the game was on the line that Gilbert would make sure that the guy in front of the net would be covered and his stick tied up?

I know I didn't.

So was it his 18 points that made him so valuable?

I don't want to dump on Gilbert because he was a good and loyal soldier for this team for many years but the nonsense being generated out of some of the blogs that purport to cover Oilers hockey is way over the top on this one.

If they would take the two minutes necessary to understand the numbers they are using to make the argument that Gilbert is a better dman than Schultz - leaving out the more important argument of who is even a better fit -they might realize just how much they are embarrassing themselves by relying on highly questionable assumptions that would get you a failing mark in most high school logic classes.
You don't consider it the least bit dubious that you're resorting to a contrived notion of what would fail in a high school logic course to support your argument?

C'mon. You can raise better argument than the above to support your position.

As for the "better fit" the trouble with that line of thinking is its a fit to a team mired in second last place. It isn't a known fit to what a contending team here would look like. Whether its a good fit to stem some leaks on the titanic is irrelevant to a notion of progress. The question being is this player a fit in relation to where we have to be to approximate a competitive side going forward.

What indication is there of that?

As Misfit indicated earlier the Oilers haven't even improved in any meaningful way at the position. If anything they've given up an average 4mins of serviceable top4 D/night due to Gilbert consistently logging much more minutes and resulting in the team having to grant scrubs like Peckham and Potter more. Which isn't fixing any leaks.

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03-16-2012, 10:21 AM
  #538
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Originally Posted by The Rage View Post
I suppose people making comments like this are surprised that some Oilers fans are frustrated by the fact that our biggest weakness got worse by trading a superior defenseman for an average one?
I don't think it has anything to do with "comments like this" but rather one side of people liking Tommy G and anther side of people liking Nicky S. Not sure why you;re so butt hurt by the comment. Gilbert loved his shoes and he made it no secret.

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03-16-2012, 10:23 AM
  #539
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I get the feeling you're basing a lot of your argument on minutes played. Yes, Gilbert is playing more minutes then Schultz, but I don't think we can presume why. Perhaps there's politics at play, perhaps Renney is intent on slowly breaking Schultz into the Oiler's (Ha!) system, perhaps Renny feels that he can't break up Petry & Smid and needs a babysitter on the third pairing.

Just as it's a bit ignorant to point to Gilbert's 0 points vs Schultz's 4 points since the trade to claim that Schultz is the better offensive defenceman, I think it's foolish to think that the minutes Schultz is playing now is where he ultimately slots into the lineup. Let's give both players at least a season to settle into their new roles and then maybe have a look at who is the better fit?
Then explain why Minny is giving Gilbert even more minutes than we were giving him and about 5-6 more minutes/game than they were giving Schultz.

One thing missing in the equation is that Gilbert ALWAYS logged the top minutes on his team anywhere he played and is a thoroughbred from the perspective of eating minutes.

One way to look at it is with Gilberts 24minutes you get 5 more minutes of not having to look at players like Sutton, Peckham, Potter, Barker, now Whitney. The 19mins Schultz is logging is pretty much what you get. His minutes have regularly been lower than Gilberts.

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03-16-2012, 10:23 AM
  #540
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Originally Posted by SeriousBusiness View Post
Exactly. Do we need a PMD? Yes. Was Gilbert a PMD? No. Was he a stay at home defenseman? No. Did we need a solid stay at home defenseman? Yes. Is Schultz? Yes.
QFT.

This is truth.

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03-16-2012, 10:27 AM
  #541
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I get the feeling you're basing a lot of your argument on minutes played. Yes, Gilbert is playing more minutes then Schultz, but I don't think we can presume why. Perhaps there's politics at play, perhaps Renney is intent on slowly breaking Schultz into the Oiler's (Ha!) system, perhaps Renny feels that he can't break up Petry & Smid and needs a babysitter on the third pairing.

Just as it's a bit ignorant to point to Gilbert's 0 points vs Schultz's 4 points since the trade to claim that Schultz is the better offensive defenceman, I think it's foolish to think that the minutes Schultz is playing now is where he ultimately slots into the lineup. Let's give both players at least a season to settle into their new roles and then maybe have a look at who is the better fit?
The minutes played argument is pretty brutal. A person just has to look at Minny's defense to see why Gilbert is playing so many minutes.

As for point totals this is what they look like post trade:

Gilbert: 8-0-1-1 -2 (Gilbert has corrected his +/- over the past few games he was like -5 in his first 4 games or so)

Schultz: 8-0-4-4 +2

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03-16-2012, 10:29 AM
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QFT.

This is truth.
No, its obvious simplification to reduce consternation.

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03-16-2012, 10:29 AM
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Then explain why Minny is giving Gilbert even more minutes than we were giving him and about 5-6 more minutes/game than they were giving Schultz.
Easy explanation Repalcement and we've been through it a hundred times. At the same time Minnesota traded a guy name Schultz and acquired this Gilbert guy they also traded Zidlicky and Zanon.

edit: Further to that, the next best d-man in Minny is probably Spurgeon.

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03-16-2012, 10:31 AM
  #544
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I can't remember the exact argument you are referring to, though even if it did happen that way, having the open mindedness to accept a superior argument when one is defeated is hardly something I should be embarrassed about. I think it is more likely that early dementia has affected your memory. I'm sure that's why you remember high schools having logic classes.
Ah, gratuitous insults spiced with ageism. I like it. About what I would expect.

Desjardins does a lot of good work. Unfortunately his acolytes seem a little too ideologically predisposed to take too seriously.

I also remember once upon a time forcing Tyler Dellow to admit - after seriously impressive prevarication attempts - that he had never taken a statistics course in his life. I've never bothered to ask Lowetide what his math qualifications look like. I won't bother with the guys at C&B because if you can't say something nice what is tht point. And I can't.

But to be serious - which may be a waste of time - Gilbert was a decent second pairing guy (closer to a #4 than a #3 dman on a middling team). Nothing more, nothing less. And the Oilers are short of guys even that good so it isn't like he was a throwaway.

We got back a guy that is much better than Gilbert in his own end who actually knows how to play defence positionally. If you can't see that or haven't bothered to watch I'm sorry. Madeup stats don't change that. When you look at time on ice for this team this year I am not convinced that that represents a legitimate standard for evaluation either. Tambellini either made this trade with Renney's blessing or with the knowledge that what Renney thinks of it is inconsequential so TOI is moot.

It is about balance and the Oilers needed somebody that knows how to play that role properly if for no other reason than that the kids coming will benefit.

And Gilbert and Schultz are basically the same age so I have no idea how that is an issue.

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03-16-2012, 10:32 AM
  #545
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Then explain why Minny is giving Gilbert even more minutes than we were giving him and about 5-6 more minutes/game than they were giving Schultz.

One thing missing in the equation is that Gilbert ALWAYS logged the top minutes on his team anywhere he played and is a thoroughbred from the perspective of eating minutes.

One way to look at it is with Gilberts 24minutes you get 5 more minutes of not having to look at players like Sutton, Peckham, Potter, Barker, now Whitney. The 19mins Schultz is logging is pretty much what you get. His minutes have regularly been lower than Gilberts.
I'm not too sure why Gilbert's getting the minutes he is in Minny. I don't do enough reading/watching to comment intelligently on what happens with the Wild, so I don't presume to know how or why Gilbert is getting played there.

I think we really need to hear from Renny about Schultz's ice-time before we start making judgements though. It would be nice if someone from the msm would ask. Sometimes I get the feeling there's some politiking afoot though, maybe Renny was unhappy about losing Gilbert and is purposely playing Schultz in limited minutes to make a point?

And although it's a limited sample, Schultz has looked good so far to my eye. He's defensively solid as advertised and has made some nice offensive forays into the zone. Whether this is just a result of adrenaline/honeymoon period on a new team, I'm not sure, but I don't miss Gilbert.

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03-16-2012, 10:32 AM
  #546
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You don't consider it the least bit dubious that you're resorting to a contrived notion of what would fail in a high school logic course to support your argument?

C'mon. You can raise better argument than the above to support your position.

As for the "better fit" the trouble with that line of thinking is its a fit to a team mired in second last place. It isn't a known fit to what a contending team here would look like. Whether its a good fit to stem some leaks on the titanic is irrelevant to a notion of progress. The question being is this player a fit in relation to where we have to be to approximate a competitive side going forward.

What indication is there of that?

As Misfit indicated earlier the Oilers haven't even improved in any meaningful way at the position. If anything they've given up an average 4mins of serviceable top4 D/night due to Gilbert consistently logging much more minutes and resulting in the team having to grant scrubs like Peckham and Potter more. Which isn't fixing any leaks.
Minutes really mean nothing, its the 2 points at the end of the game that is the story.

You think the trade has helped out the Wild? The are 1-7 in the games Gilbert has been there. He has a huge 1 point.

Schultz so far for us has 4 points and we are 2-6 in the 8 games.

If anything its a little early to declare this trade has helped one team (Wild) but hasnt helped the other (Oilers)

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03-16-2012, 10:33 AM
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Easy explanation Repalcement and we've been through it a hundred times. At the same time Minnesota traded a guy name Schultz and acquired this Gilbert guy they also traded Zidlicky and Zanon.
That would be a specific explanation. What I am arguing, and the data is on my side, is that Gilbert has ALWAYS logged more minutes than Schultz wherever, and with whoever.

Different players have different recovery capacities. Gilbert happens to be one of those players that can play 25mins/night quite easily while staying healthy. Not many of those guys out there.

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03-16-2012, 10:34 AM
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Minutes really mean nothing, its the 2 points at the end of the game that is the story.

You think the trade has helped out the Wild? The are 1-7 in the games Gilbert has been there. He has a huge 1 point.

Schultz so far for us has 4 points and we are 2-6 in the 8 games.

If anything its a little early to declare this trade has helped one team (Wild) but hasnt helped the other (Oilers)
I not arguing this. If anythign I'm saying its early. My position matches Misfit. We didn't appreciable improve our D position. Its a lateral move imo.

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03-16-2012, 10:38 AM
  #549
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I not arguing this. If anythign I'm saying its early. My position matches Misfit. We didn't appreciable improve our D position. Its a lateral move imo.
Cool, I dont mean you, but in general I'm really getting sick of hearing the Oilers traded one their best defensemen for a scrub. Like you said its a lateral move. Time to quit arguing and enjoy Schultz as much as we enjoyed Gilbert.

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03-16-2012, 10:40 AM
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That would be a specific explanation. What I am arguing, and the data is on my side, is that Gilbert has ALWAYS logged more minutes than Schultz wherever, and with whoever.

Different players have different recovery capacities. Gilbert happens to be one of those players that can play 25mins/night quite easily while staying healthy. Not many of those guys out there.
Yes Gilbert may have a better stamina if that's what you are arguing. At the same time we also aren't arguing apples to apples. The Minny defenses that Schultz played on and that Gilbert is playing on are completely different. So that could be the reason why Schultz didn't play more in Minny because they actually had other legit d-men.

At the same time in Edmonton and to a lesser extent, Petry didn't play as many significant minutes with Gilbert than he is now with Schultz. One thing that is for certain is that Petry was gradually taking minutes away from Gilbert and Gilbert this year also played much of the year with an absent Ryan Whitney while Schultz joined the team with a much improved Petry and a team with Whitney in the line-up.

Regardless of how you slice it you're argument is arguing apples to apples.

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