peak = probably Redden.
career = probably Jovanovski, since Redden's play fell off a cliff. Edit: see post 4. I'm not so sure about this one.
Not surprised that mark asked the version of the question that most favors his player ("his" meaning he drafted him in the fantasy game called the All Time Draft) in the comparison.
Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 03-16-2012 at 01:02 AM.
I'd take Redden without thinking twice about it. When they were both playing, in their primes, Redden was a better player—was a solid #1 defenseman for 10 years, held his own offensively and was on another level defensively. He might've been a Norris finalist in '06 if he hadn't missed 18 games.
Jovanovski was a nice big mobile defensemen and he was good enough to play in the Olympics (as was Redden), but he could be a defensive adventure, he made a bunch of costly mistakes during the playoffs back when he was a Canuck, and he had a habit of taking dumb penalties at the wrong time.
And Jovanovski's longevity advantage isn't that great. Right now he's played two and a half more seasons than Redden, none of them particularly memorable. Redden fell into an unlucky situation—when he started declining, he was still capable of playing in the NHL, there was just no way a team was going to take that massive cap hit for a merely serviceable #4/#5 defender.
Looks like a small advantage for Redden, but when you consider the fact that Jovanovski was a much flashier and more noticable defenseman, the gap in favor of Redden is actually probably greater than the raw awards voting shows.
This would suggest Redden had the better prime, but prime is only one (big) part of what makes career value. But I wouldn't put all THAT much stock into awards voting when pretty much every one of these finishes except Redden's best year were with only a handful of votes.
Here's a really simplistic view of Jovanovski and Redden:
Redden played about 40 more seconds per game in his career. Not a huge deal. Take out Jovo's 2012 season as a 35-year old and the difference is only about 30 seconds in almost equal GP.
However, Redden earned these minutes on teams that were typically strong: His teams' weighted average in his career was 18% better than the league average (based on GF/GA in all situations, not just win%). Jovanovski's average team strength was exactly 1.00 - meaning average.
As we have seen with many players when analyzing their TOI, it's easier to get ice time on lesser teams, and more difficult and more impressive to get ice time on better teams. Also, with all things being equal, you have to give a player credit for making their team better, particularly when they are on the ice nearly half the game, usually more often than any player other than the goalie.
One more point, if you separate out ES play specifically, it's interesting to note that Redden's teams had an R-off of 1.15 but when he was on the ice his R-on was 1.27. In other words, his team was great without him, but even greater with him.
In Jovo's case, his teams were 1.06 without him but dropped to 0.96 with him on the ice.
I think matchups, defense partners and forward lines can have an impact on this type of stat, and particularly in swings from season to season. I don't think that over a 1000-game sample we can say that these are major influences, but I'll listen to a good argument for otherwise.
For more discussion on this topic from a variety of sources, see this thread:
I'd take Redden without thinking twice about it. When they were both playing, in their primes, Redden was a better player—was a solid #1 defenseman for 10 years, held his own offensively and was on another level defensively. He might've been a Norris finalist in '06 if he hadn't missed 18 games.
Jovanovski was a nice big mobile defensemen and he was good enough to play in the Olympics (as was Redden), but he could be a defensive adventure, he made a bunch of costly mistakes during the playoffs back when he was a Canuck, and he had a habit of taking dumb penalties at the wrong time.
And Jovanovski's longevity advantage isn't that great. Right now he's played two and a half more seasons than Redden, none of them particularly memorable. Redden fell into an unlucky situation—when he started declining, he was still capable of playing in the NHL, there was just no way a team was going to take that massive cap hit for a merely serviceable #4/#5 defender.
I'm also not really sure about the whole "Jovanovski wins on career value because Redden fell off a cliff" thing.
Jovanovski had the big hits right from the start and turned many heads, including mine, but he was still a 2nd pairing player for most of his first 4 seasons. (#4 in 1996 and 1997, behind Carkner, Murphy and of course Svehla, #3 in 1998. He had become their #2 in 1999 before being traded, and was Vancouver's #4 behind Ohlund, McCabe, Aucoin for the rest of the year)
It was in 2000 that he started a string of six straight seasons as Vancouver's #2 defenseman behind Mattias Ohlund, though for 85 scattered games in those six years, Ohlund was injured (yes, mark, I got these numbers wrong before) making Jovanovski the interim #1.
Since leaving Vancouver he has been in a slow, graceful decline. His minutes have dropped six straight years now. He was Phoenix' #1/2 for three years when they sucked, then their #3/4 in the last two years when they made the playoffs.
Redden was a 23 minute defenseman by year 3, and a #1 defenseman by his 4th year. So it's quite arguable that as Jovanovski found his way, those years are offset by the years in which Redden lost his.
The "prime" years that are really relevant to each player's legacy and constitute the vast majority of their "career value" (some would say all of it) are the 2000-2009 seasons for Jovanovski, and the same 1999-2008 seasons for Redden. Same lengths of time.
What Jovo accomplished in 1996-1999 and 2010-present is very little individually, same with Redden 1997-1998 and 2009-2010. Jovo's "non-prime" period is three seasons longer, but that's hardly relevant.
Player
GP
TOI/GP
Team Strength
R-on
R-off
Redden prime
676
24.08
1.28
1.35
1.29
Jovo prime
619
23.76
1.07
0.99
1.08
Redden other
318
19.96
1.18
1.00
0.87
Jovo other
453
20.01
0.97
0.86
1.03
In their best 9-season periods Redden was getting a little more time on ice, but not a really significant amount more. What was significant was that he was earning this icetime on significantly more successful teams, and as good as they were without him on the ice, they were even better with him. Jovanovski's teams were good, but not great, and they were a tad below average when he was on the ice.
In their off-prime years they again earned very close icetime per game, what you might call "sheltered minutes". Again, Redden's minutes were earned on significantly more successful teams, and the fortunes of these teams significantly improved when he was on the ice. With Jovo it was the opposite, just like in the prime comparison.
The bottom two lines are pretty much irrelevant, though. No one should care what happened in their off years. 9 seasons for each guy is enough to judge them on, and Redden wins pretty easily.
Last edited by seventieslord: 03-18-2012 at 03:14 PM.
Without looking on any stats, I say JovoCop. During their best Redden was probably slightly better. Anyway, if I have to choose between them and their play for my team in next 15 years I choose Jovanovski.
peak = probably Redden.
career = probably Jovanovski, since Redden's play fell off a cliff. Edit: see post 4. I'm not so sure about this one.
Not surprised that mark asked the version of the question that most favors his player ("his" meaning he drafted him in the fantasy game called the All Time Draft) in the comparison.
Dude are you serious? How old are you anyways. I made this thread as unbiased as possible:
Quote:
Take into consideration their entire careers both prime and longevity
Quote:
Originally Posted by begbeee
Without looking on any stats, I say JovoCop. During their best Redden was probably slightly better. Anyway, if I have to choose between them and their play for my team in next 15 years I choose Jovanovski.
Also for anybody who wants to know how usefull Time on ice is for defesneman:
Cam Fowler is averaging over 2 minutes more per game this year then Lubomir Visnovsky. Meanwhile his defensive play is still highly questionable. Are we suppose to think Fowler Is the surperior defesenman based on this stat?
This said, I wonder what to do with Jovanovski's last two season. Nowhere near elite, but can still play regular minutes in the NHL. If Jovo plays, let's say, 4-5 more NHL seasons (and none for Redden), at the current level of play...
FOR ATD PURPOSES : Jovo can make a pretty good crease-clearer, but If I'm looking at a no. 5/6 D-Men who is reliable enough to play against a decent line (read -- most 2nd lines in the draft), I'm going with Redden, not even close. Unless you have an absolutely rock on the bottom-line, and there aren't many of them, or absolutely need a big body, pick Redden.
Also for anybody who wants to know how usefull Time on ice is for defesneman:
Cam Fowler is averaging over 2 minutes more per game this year then Lubomir Visnovsky. Meanwhile his defensive play is still highly questionable. Are we suppose to think Fowler Is the surperior defesenman based on this stat?
Well, that's kindof where the +/- stat becomes a bit more useful than usual. (Obviously, advanced stats are missing, but that's not the point). I also give some weight to the fact that the Ducks, with one of the best goalies in the league, seems to have given lots of goals.
Also It would be nice if somebody could give some insight on Jovos first couple of years in Florida. I was too young to watch them but i am interested on how he played (Considering he made the All rookie team)
Also something to keep in mind is that Redden was named to 2 NHL all star teams, Jovo was named to 5.
Who did Redden play with? Jovo had Ohlund and he was a steady as it gets. Redden had a before prime Chara and who else? I really don't remember. Perhaps he got more time because he simply was the best on his team and Jovo had Ohlund to share the load.
Who did Redden play with? Jovo had Ohlund and he was a steady as it gets. Redden had a before prime Chara and who else? I really don't remember. Perhaps he got more time because he simply was the best on his team and Jovo had Ohlund to share the load.
97-98 to 00-01: Redden's partner was usually Jason York. Other top 4 d-men included Igor Kravchuk, Sami Salo, Karel Rachunek.
01-02: Redden played with a before-prime Chara. Other d-men: Chris Phillips, Rachunek, Salo.
02-03 and 03-04: Redden played with Rachunek. Zdeno Chara and Chris Phillips were the other pairing in Ottawa's top 4, playing a shutdown role. From this point on Redden no longer played against other teams' top lines - Chara/Phillips or Phillips/Volchenkov pulled that duty.
05-06 to 07-08: Redden played with Andrei Meszaros. Other top 4 defencemen: Chara and Phillips, then Phillips and Anton Volchenkov.
97-98 to 00-01: Redden's partner was usually Jason York. Other top 4 d-men included Igor Kravchuk, Sami Salo, Karel Rachunek.
01-02: Redden played with a before-prime Chara. Other d-men: Chris Phillips, Rachunek, Salo.
02-03 and 03-04: Redden played with Rachunek. Zdeno Chara and Chris Phillips were the other pairing in Ottawa's top 4, playing a shutdown role. From this point on Redden no longer played against other teams' top lines - Chara/Phillips or Phillips/Volchenkov pulled that duty.
05-06 to 07-08: Redden played with Andrei Meszaros. Other top 4 defencemen: Chara and Phillips, then Phillips and Anton Volchenkov.
Also something to keep in mind is that Redden was named to 2 NHL all star teams, Jovo was named to 5.
I don’t think this matters much. These are the fan all-star games, not postseason all-stars. More a function of the fact that Jovo was the flashier player. He was huge, everyone remembers that he tossed around Lindros as a teenager in the '96 playoffs, he was a fast skater, he was popular with fans and just plain noticeable. Not surprising that he’d get voted for more all-star games.
It’s likely the same reason why Jovo picked up a bunch of downballot Norris votes over the years. Eye-catching defensemen with decent numbers who line up people for big hits naturally get more notice than quieter, steadier defensemen. Rob Blake and Dion Phaneuf benefited from the same phenomenon.
The biggest thing to add is that Jovanovski couldn’t seem to keep his cool in high-pressure situations. At all. The Canucks were eliminated from the 2004 playoffs in OT while Jovo was sitting in the penalty box on a lazy high-sticking penalty. He wasn’t much better the previous year, either. His series in Phoenix a few years back against Detroit was atrocious, though he was past his prime by then. In a high-stakes game or playoff series, Redden is the much safer bet.
Last edited by Dissonance: 03-16-2012 at 10:03 AM.
Also for anybody who wants to know how usefull Time on ice is for defesneman:
Cam Fowler is averaging over 2 minutes more per game this year then Lubomir Visnovsky. Meanwhile his defensive play is still highly questionable. Are we suppose to think Fowler Is the surperior defesenman based on this stat?
As of this very moment? Yes, quite possibly. Ask Ducks fans. It’s not like Visnovsky was ever a defensive star and he’s not lighting it up offensively and is now 35, so….
Even if you were right and Fowler is getting two more minutes per game than Visnovsky despite being the far inferior player currently, what does that even prove? That TOI only tells the story 95% of the time and not 100%?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MXD
I'd think Redden as well. See seventieslord post.
This said, I wonder what to do with Jovanovski's last two season. Nowhere near elite, but can still play regular minutes in the NHL. If Jovo plays, let's say, 4-5 more NHL seasons (and none for Redden), at the current level of play....
You realize he’s now a #6 defenseman playing 16 minutes a game, right?
Last two seasons he was definitely a solid, contributing player, adding minimal career value but still some. This year, I mean, 16 minutes, that’s Komisarek territory. 4-5 more years of that adds nothing, and if you play those kind of minutes, you don’t make it to 4-5 years because you’re just hanging on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markrander87
Also It would be nice if somebody could give some insight on Jovos first couple of years in Florida. I was too young to watch them but i am interested on how he played (Considering he made the All rookie team)
Also something to keep in mind is that Redden was named to 2 NHL all star teams, Jovo was named to 5.
As Dreakmur already told you, there are many more factors at play in all-star game selections than just who the better players are.
Also, if you look at most all-rookie team members on defense, the fact that they were considered one of the two best rookies means very little about where they stand in the entire NHL.
4 of the last 32 all-rookie team members on defense were 1st pairing defensemen from the start – Tyler Myers, Drew Doughty (who is a special player), Tobias Enstrom (who at 23 was not a usual “rookie”) and M.A. Vlasic. The last time it even happened was 2007. If you’re not a first pairing defenseman on your own team, you’re not really in the conversation for the top-40 defensemen in the league, unless it’s a really rare case of a deep team.
Point is, Jovanovski was a great rookie, but that doesn’t mean he was a great NHL player yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eisen
Who did Redden play with? Jovo had Ohlund and he was a steady as it gets. Redden had a before prime Chara and who else? I really don't remember. Perhaps he got more time because he simply was the best on his team and Jovo had Ohlund to share the load.
I wouldn’t say Jovo and Ohlund shared the load. Ohlund did the heavy lifting defensively, Jovo usually did not.
Regardless of the names on the defense corps (which overpass already covered) the defense corps was successful on the ice; therefore it was strong; therefore it should be considered impressive to be the leader of that defense corps.
Regardless of the names on the defense corps (which overpass already covered) the defense corps was successful on the ice; therefore it was strong; therefore it should be considered impressive to be the leader of that defense corps.
Not sure I follow this logic. If Redden played for Vancouver it looks as though he would have played behind Ohlund as well.
The fact of the matter 70's is that you are so sure of yourself it's laughable. Take a look at the results: 8 votes so far and we are tied. I have not once said that Jovo was miles ahead of Redden and I have agreed multiple times that they are very close. The fact that you puff your chest out and dismiss and type of discussion placing Jovo over Redden is why this thread exisits.
Last edited by markrander87: 03-16-2012 at 11:21 AM.
Not sure I follow this logic. If Redden played for Vancouver it looks as though he would have played behind Redden as well.
You mean behind Ohlund, I imagine?
He probably would have, but we can't really say for sure. Ohlund was an excellent defenseman who is underrated by most people. On the other hand he was strong enough defensively to handle himself on a top pairing for almost his whole career, so he probably would have been considered Ohlund's ideal partner.
Quote:
The fact of the matter 70's is that you are so sure of yourself it's laughable. Take a look at the results: 8 votes so far and we are tied. I have not once said that Jovo was miles ahead of Redden and I have agreed multiple times that they are very close. The fact that you puff your chest out and dismiss and type of discussion placing Jovo over Redden is why this thread exisits.
MXD was pretty clear about his position and did not vote.
what discussion did I "dismiss"?
short little snippy posts like this that start to turn to the ad hominem side instead of addressing the points made, are a pretty strong indication of something...
MXD was pretty clear about his position and did not vote.
what discussion did I "dismiss"?
short little snippy posts like this that start to turn to the ad hominem side instead of addressing the points made, are a pretty strong indication of something...
The only thing I see on your end is useless TOI stats and "Jovo didnt deserve the recognition he received because he was a flashy defenseman"
although there is truth to that, not once have I been the one putting that point forward...
TOI means a lot to you... when it supports your position.
Just like you're ready to invite me over to meet the family... when I agree with you on something.
Is that ANOTHER bad joke? You have been slipping lately, i've already made a comment referring to Vadnais and TOI and how thinking it over it really doesn't prove too much when comparing two defenseman. I guess you missed that post too.
