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San Jose @ Los Angeles 3/20/12

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Old
03-19-2012, 01:21 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by buddy the elf View Post

it is pretty remarkable that even after the mediocre season the kings have had, they still have a legitimate shot at winning the division. The team is playing the best hockey they have played all season too. I hope they can keep it up! Winning the division would really make up for what a disappointing season has been so far.
amen

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Old
03-19-2012, 02:06 PM
  #27
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???

If I've flipped a coin four times and gotten heads all four times, what are the odds of heads being flipped on the fifth flip?
umm, ok well i didnt know i'd be singled out for that but since you said so...

Its important to remember I said odds...not percentage. The Kings 4 previous wins doesnt factor into the Kings game tomorrow because the Kings will either win or lose, that alone still gives them a 50% chance of winning tomorrows game, so in that respect you are correct. But, if we're talking odds, then the likelihood of them winning based on the 4 previous decision is 1/32 or 3.1% as previously stated. If the Kings do win 5 in a row, them the ODDS of them winning 6 in a row is 1/64 or 1.5%....so yes our odds are rapidly declining.

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03-19-2012, 02:13 PM
  #28
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Sharks will be playing a 2nd 1/2 of back to back we should jump all over them.

Never thought i would be rooting for ducks..

Rooting for them tonight

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Old
03-19-2012, 02:23 PM
  #29
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Sharks will be playing a 2nd 1/2 of back to back we should jump all over them.

Never thought i would be rooting for ducks..

Rooting for them tonight
I'm also ruiting for a physical game. Lots of sticks to the back of calves.
Havlat has looked good since coming back and that is scary as hell.

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Old
03-19-2012, 02:39 PM
  #30
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feels reminiscent of last year, winner of the last 3 SJ/LA games wins the division i think. hopefully the kings man up this time.

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:02 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by The Big Giant Head View Post
umm, ok well i didnt know i'd be singled out for that but since you said so...

Its important to remember I said odds...not percentage. The Kings 4 previous wins doesnt factor into the Kings game tomorrow because the Kings will either win or lose, that alone still gives them a 50% chance of winning tomorrows game, so in that respect you are correct. But, if we're talking odds, then the likelihood of them winning based on the 4 previous decision is 1/32 or 3.1% as previously stated. If the Kings do win 5 in a row, them the ODDS of them winning 6 in a row is 1/64 or 1.5%....so yes our odds are rapidly declining.
Are you going to give me 32 to 1 odds if I want to place a bet? Good luck getting those odds in Vegas. The odds are not exactly 50/50 because one team is better than the other, but they are close.

It is true that the chances of the Kings winning 5 in a row may have been 32 to 1, but those odds apply BEFORE the string of games started. What has happened in the last 4 games does not have any bearing on what will happen in the next game. That is like saying that red has hit 4 times in a row, so odds are the next one will be black. It simply is not true and is called Gambler's Fallacy.

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:08 PM
  #32
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Go Ducks!

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:26 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by rsaturday View Post
Are you going to give me 32 to 1 odds if I want to place a bet? Good luck getting those odds in Vegas. The odds are not exactly 50/50 because one team is better than the other, but they are close.

It is true that the chances of the Kings winning 5 in a row may have been 32 to 1, but those odds apply BEFORE the string of games started. What has happened in the last 4 games does not have any bearing on what will happen in the next game. That is like saying that red has hit 4 times in a row, so odds are the next one will be black. It simply is not true and is called Gambler's Fallacy.
WRONG!

just kidding. Just wanted to say you were wrong even though you are right. For anyone who disagrees with his post, you can research mathematical probability to back him up.

The whole "in a row" thing is only a minimal chance because the record should accurately reflect the true advantage. In a coin toss, 10 heads in a row is unlikely because heads doesn't have a true advantage over tails. So deviation from statistical probability is minimal. But it has nothing to do with whether the 11th flip would be heads or tails. If anything, your best bet is to bet Heads again if you were at a casino.

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:29 PM
  #34
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This thread is starting to show potential. LOL!!

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:32 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
This thread is starting to show potential. LOL!!
Hahah yeah, Go Kings! We may be 32 to 1 underdogs but I hope we beat The Sharks on Tuesday!!!!

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:40 PM
  #36
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If Sharks lose tonight, it means they are due to win tomorrow, would that change our odds to 1/64?

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Old
03-19-2012, 03:43 PM
  #37
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Old
03-19-2012, 03:45 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
This thread is starting to show potential. LOL!!
This has the makings of another "60 point range" thread.

I'm shocked they are starting Niemi vs. Greiss tonight. Niemi playing two nights in a row and 12 in a row with no break sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.


Last edited by TonySCV: 03-19-2012 at 03:56 PM.
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Old
03-19-2012, 04:03 PM
  #39
The Big Giant Head
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Originally Posted by rsaturday View Post
Are you going to give me 32 to 1 odds if I want to place a bet? Good luck getting those odds in Vegas. The odds are not exactly 50/50 because one team is better than the other, but they are close.

It is true that the chances of the Kings winning 5 in a row may have been 32 to 1, but those odds apply BEFORE the string of games started. What has happened in the last 4 games does not have any bearing on what will happen in the next game. That is like saying that red has hit 4 times in a row, so odds are the next one will be black. It simply is not true and is called Gambler's Fallacy.

waaait a min... that's virtually what i said. The previous string of wins have no bearing on the kings chances of winning this particular game...thus i said they have a 50% chance of winning or losing. now Obviously its not even at 50% because one team may be better than the other but for the sake of simplicity we'll call it 50/50. And im familiar with Gamblers Fallacy in that the fallacy comes in that an individual for example flipping a coin and landing on head 5 times in a row would think that the likelihood of it hitting heads again are much slimmer because of the 5 previous heads even though that has no bearing on the next coin flip which would still make it 50/50. But the odds change with each consecutive flip and result when your clustering them together, so instead of thinking each individual coin flip as being separate you group them together. On average, if you flip a coin 6 times you should get about 3 heads and 3 tails, although this isnt always the case... but on average. the likelihood of flipping heads 5, 6 or 7 times consecutively greatly changes with each flip.

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:04 PM
  #40
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Go Ducks tonight:

vs. Sharks!

tough for the Ducks, in the Shark Tank, but they can do it, and they should be pissed after losing to the Predators last night after taking an early lead.

Some of those Ducks are playing for their futures in Anaheim, cuz there will likely be wholesale changes after the season is over for them,

c'mon, Ducks, help us out, LOL!

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:06 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
This has the makings of another "60 point range" thread.

I'm shocked they are starting Niemi vs. Greiss tonight. Niemi playing two nights in a row and 12 in a row with no break sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.
Makes me wonder if the Sharks will start Greiss against the Kings. I don't recall, has he played against the Kings this season?

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:13 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
Makes me wonder if the Sharks will start Greiss against the Kings. I don't recall, has he played against the Kings this season?
Greiss scares me, and Neimi is playing real well right now.
Either goalie will be a challange, will just have to control the rest of the game, and put as many quality shots to the net as possible.

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:19 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
Makes me wonder if the Sharks will start Greiss against the Kings. I don't recall, has he played against the Kings this season?
No. Niemi and Quick for all 3.

4-2 Sharks in SJ
2-0 Kings in LA
2-1 Sharks in a shootout in SJ.

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:23 PM
  #44
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Greiss scares me, and Neimi is playing real well right now.
Either goalie will be a challange, will just have to control the rest of the game, and put as many quality shots to the net as possible.
I went back and checked and Niemi has played the previous 3 games against the Kings, so I will be surprised if the Kings see Greiss tomorrow night.

Niemi has played the Kings tough this season, but all of those game were BC (before Carter), so we'll see.

EDIT: I was looking typing as you posted, thanks Tony.

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:25 PM
  #45
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Has Richards started to look any better lately? Dying to cut him from my fantasy team, but worried he will turn it around lol.

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Old
03-19-2012, 04:36 PM
  #46
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Has Richards started to look any better lately? Dying to cut him from my fantasy team, but worried he will turn it around lol.
Looking good is orthogonal to scoring. He's a smart player. Makes the right read almost every time. Good teammate. He's just not scoring.

From a fantasy perspective, scoring is all that matters right? If so, you should have cut him a long time ago.

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Old
03-19-2012, 05:03 PM
  #47
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Looking good is orthogonal to scoring. He's a smart player. Makes the right read almost every time. Good teammate. He's just not scoring.

From a fantasy perspective, scoring is all that matters right? If so, you should have cut him a long time ago.
Having watched him play for years prior to him being shipped west, its hard to cut a player you know has ability. Only options are briere or Justin Williams so not an easy decision.

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Old
03-19-2012, 05:09 PM
  #48
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Richards' line is playing well.. I'd guess he's gonna get 6 points in the final 10 games.

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Old
03-19-2012, 05:31 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by MartyForVezina View Post
Having watched him play for years prior to him being shipped west, its hard to cut a player you know has ability. Only options are briere or Justin Williams so not an easy decision.
Should have changed a few weeks ago, Williams has 6 goals and 11 points in the last 10 games.

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Old
03-19-2012, 06:15 PM
  #50
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Imagine if it really did come down to the last game of the year (to see which team makes the playoffs). I hope for my health it doesn't come down to that, lol.

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