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Elite talent in the draft

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Old
03-20-2012, 10:10 AM
  #251
bsl
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
That's cool, I think everyone understands that reasoning. But at some point (and it's been forever) we need to try to get elite forwards on the team. That's where maybe trading for a prospect comes in.

Someone above mentioned Huberdeau. I think you go to Florida with your pick and some vets and see if you can get him. If the BPA isn't addressing your needs, I think we need to look outside the box (or in this case outside the draft) to satisfy our needs.
You're gonna have to overwhelm Forida. Huberdeau is developing as expected.

You guys will kick my ass, but I'd do Subban and our first for Huberdeau and their first. If our first was top 3, they might bite.

Frankly, Huberdeau is much more valuable to the Habs than to Florida.

Give them a sure shot at Grigs or Galchynuk, and they just might bite.

All a dream though, cause we're picking 6th.

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03-20-2012, 10:15 AM
  #252
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Originally Posted by DenverHabsFan View Post
The way I interpret that research is that EVEN before they become bona fide stars, those players are not traded.

The proponents of BPA seem to think all we have to do is go for BPA and then use that player as trade bait for the elusive elite forward that we need but the research shows that almost never happens. Unless, of course, we're not talking about super elite level forward.

If you look at trades, forwards tend to weigh more in trades and D more than G. So would it not make sense to do like the Flyers and always stack the team with forwards since their value is higher? You could of course argue that it's the opposite of building from the back end but they have been able to trade to fill those other positions. Plus, I could live with a tough, high-scoring team who seems to be a legit contender every year.

For example, they have so much depth on offense that they can think of trading JVR to acquire a solid D. Value-wise, that strategy just seems better.
I agree completely. It might have even been Holmgren who said never draft a D top 10, they take too long to develop, and forwards have much higher value in trade.

You can almost always trade for a very good D to complete your lineup. You can almost NEVER trade for an elite F to complete your lineup.

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03-20-2012, 10:26 AM
  #253
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Originally Posted by NRG87 View Post
Agreed for the most part. If we end up picking 6th or 7th overall for example, and Grigorenko, Galchenyuk and Forsberg are already gone, then we should take the BPA and go with a defenseman (e.g. Rielly, Reinhart, Murray, Dumba or whoever) as opposed to taking a guy like Faksa or Gaunce just for the sake of drafting a forward.

There are a number of other ways a GM (preferably not Gauthier) could go about shoring up our current lack of offensive talent. I'd rather not trade Plekanec to acquire a guy like JVR, because I don't think it makes us better in the short run (Habs don't need a full long-term rebuild because they are rich and can afford to spend to the cap). Plekanec is also young enough to give us another 3-4 years of top-end play (provided he has wingers that are a tad more skilled than Geoffrion or White).

Option 1: If your targeted forward is no longer on the draft board, you could trade your 1st round pick to a team with a wealth of offensive talent (and a dearth of defensive prospects) in return for a good young forward prospect or player.

Option 2: You could keep the 1st round pick and select a young defenseman stud (e.g. Murray), then trade any one of your defenseman prospects (e.g. Beaulieu, Murray, Tinordi) to acquire a good young forward prospect or player.
Nobody trades very good budding young forwards for D. Not happening. You have to draft them.

Oh? We can't draft a good forward this year? Draft a good D, and wait another year. That's what we face, like it or not.

I'm really pissed at our luck this year. Yakupov, and then nothing but questions at forward. I like Forsberg a lot , but I don't see him lasting more than 5 picks.

We're gonna draft 6th, (and we can't trade up with a 6th), and get yet another 2nd line center or W, or better, a very good D prospect. But that's about it. Sorry to rain on your parade.

I'm just exhausted at the crap we have to take as fans of this team.

A top 2-3 pick would have been so good, and we can't even manage that.

Sorry, depressed tonight, but really. Look at what's happening in the standings, again.

I hope when our 2012 6th or 7th pick turns out mediocre, every single HF poster finally just realizes we need to finish last, just one year.

The NHL has changed. Top 3 picks are EVERYTHING now. You'll see in 2 years when Edmonton is first in their division. Oh? And look who's becoming the odds on favorite for the Cup again? Yeah, ****tsburgh, top three pick team extraordinaire.

Get used to it. You want a cup in the next 10 years? You better hope the Habs have at least 1 if not 2 top 3 picks. End of.


Last edited by bsl: 03-20-2012 at 10:35 AM.
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03-20-2012, 10:37 AM
  #254
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You're gonna have to overwhelm Forida. Huberdeau is developing as expected.

You guys will kick my ass, but I'd do Subban and our first for Huberdeau and their first. If our first was top 3, they might bite.

Frankly, Huberdeau is much more valuable to the Habs than to Florida.

Give them a sure shot at Grigs or Galchynuk, and they just might bite.

All a dream though, cause we're picking 6th.
That's retarded. First off, PK is already established as a very solid D with superstar potential. They should be offering Huberdeau+their 1st for him alone. Heck, they might even have to throw in more than that. If we put in our 1st as well, they will have to dish us out plenty more.
That's a retarded deal from us. Absolutely horrible.

I can't believe you think trading PK+top 3 pick is only worth Huberdeau+no better than mid 1st round pick. We'd be getting screwed there, big time.

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03-20-2012, 10:56 AM
  #255
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
That's retarded. First off, PK is already established as a very solid D with superstar potential. They should be offering Huberdeau+their 1st for him alone. Heck, they might even have to throw in more than that. If we put in our 1st as well, they will have to dish us out plenty more.
That's a retarded deal from us. Absolutely horrible.

I can't believe you think trading PK+top 3 pick is only worth Huberdeau+no better than mid 1st round pick. We'd be getting screwed there, big time.
Habs: **** at center, at least if you want to win a cup. If you think Pleks, DD and Eller will get us there, that's fine. I do not.

Habs: Zero elite first line center prospects, and nobody trades them. Ever.

Huberdeau: Elite performing first line French Canadian center prospect.

Habs: Zero chance at picking an elite center prospect this year. And next year we will be better, and draft lower. And the year after that.

Huberdeau: Already developing, not in the same risk category as an 18 year old. And Florida will want to be compensated for that risk. But you never though of that, did you.

Habs: 3-4 very good D prospects, including one or 2 that can make mostly up for the loss of Subban.

Habs: Florida mid round pick: Yet another very good D prospect to mitigate against the loss of Subban. But you did not notice that.

Subban: Not Bobby Orr.

Florida: Could improve on D prospects, and has other very good C prospects, and does not need a possible, yes quite possible, superstar french C prospect as much as Habs.

We would be incredibly lucky if Florida went for this deal.

But yeah, you're right. I'm wrong.

This is not the first time you've insultingly jumped all over me. Please be more polite. I'm not retarded.


Last edited by bsl: 03-20-2012 at 11:17 AM.
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03-20-2012, 11:08 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
You're gonna have to overwhelm Forida. Huberdeau is developing as expected.

You guys will kick my ass, but I'd do Subban and our first for Huberdeau and their first. If our first was top 3, they might bite.

Frankly, Huberdeau is much more valuable to the Habs than to Florida.

Give them a sure shot at Grigs or Galchynuk, and they just might bite.

All a dream though, cause we're picking 6th.
That's pretty pricey man. You know I'm all about trading for elite prospects but Subban is a guy we can build around and he's shown that he can play well in the NHL. PLUS you want to deal away our pick this year?

Too much for me.
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I agree completely. It might have even been Holmgren who said never draft a D top 10, they take too long to develop, and forwards have much higher value in trade.

You can almost always trade for a very good D to complete your lineup. You can almost NEVER trade for an elite F to complete your lineup.
Well, doesn't this kind of contradict your earlier point though? We've developed Subban to the point where he's an average 1st pairing blueliner and he's still pretty young. Wouldn't it make sense to hang on to him now that we've done the heavy lifting?

I totally get what you're saying. Believe me, I want an elite center more than anything for this club and we haven't had one in years but I don't think dealing away a PROVEN prospect like Subban is the way to do it.

Beaulieau or Tinordi + our first for Huberdeau? Maybe I'd think about it, it would depend on what Timmins says about the prospects at this years' draft. At least there we're giving away prospect for prospect. Subban though shouldnt' be dealt in my opinion. Not unless it's for another young player who's proven he can have success. He's too young and good to trade away.

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03-20-2012, 11:14 AM
  #257
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Say we pick 6th and Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galcheyuk and Forsberg are all gone...
Would you guys be happy taking a shot at Collberg? It is kind of off the board according to concensus here, but if Timmins thinks he is something special like Skinner....what do you think?

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03-20-2012, 11:35 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
That's pretty pricey man. You know I'm all about trading for elite prospects but Subban is a guy we can build around and he's shown that he can play well in the NHL. PLUS you want to deal away our pick this year?

Too much for me.

Well, doesn't this kind of contradict your earlier point though? We've developed Subban to the point where he's an average 1st pairing blueliner and he's still pretty young. Wouldn't it make sense to hang on to him now that we've done the heavy lifting?

I totally get what you're saying. Believe me, I want an elite center more than anything for this club and we haven't had one in years but I don't think dealing away a PROVEN prospect like Subban is the way to do it.

Beaulieau or Tinordi + our first for Huberdeau? Maybe I'd think about it, it would depend on what Timmins says about the prospects at this years' draft. At least there we're giving away prospect for prospect. Subban though shouldnt' be dealt in my opinion. Not unless it's for another young player who's proven he can have success. He's too young and good to trade away.
You prove my point LG. All REAL trades are arguable. Of course dealing Subby is a huge risk.

I think we can mitigate against the risk with our existing D prospects, and with Florida mid round pick for yet another D prospect.

I don't think our pick is going to pan out at no. 6, as in a player that will lead us to a cup in 3 years. Not happening.

I thing Huberdeau is what we need to build a cup winning team. Of course I might be wrong, but cups are won with risks, not Kyle Chipchura.

And I don't think Subban is Bobby Orr, or even Raymond Bourque.

I look at it the other way round. We'd be lucky if Forida went for this in my view. Come on LG, you know that except for Joe 'I'm real dumb' Thornton, no elite centers, or even 19 year old elite C prospects, are EVER traded.

Subban is the only weapon we have to pull this off, and I think we can afford to do it. It is precisely because Subban is proven that Florida might take the bait.

But I know you, especially, love wallowing in mediocrity, so why try to convince you?

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03-20-2012, 11:36 AM
  #259
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Habs: **** at center, at least if you want to win a cup. If you think Pleks, DD and Eller will get us there, that's fine. I do not.

Habs: Zero elite first line center prospects, and nobody trades them. Ever.

Huberdeau: Elite performing first line French Canadian center prospect.

Habs: Zero chance at picking an elite center prospect this year. And next year we will be better, and draft lower. And the year after that.

Huberdeau: Already developing, not in the same risk category as an 18 year old. And Florida will want to be compensated for that risk. But you never though of that, did you.

Habs: 3-4 very good D prospects, including one or 2 that can make mostly up for the loss of Subban.

Habs: Florida mid round pick: Yet another very good D prospect to mitigate against the loss of Subban. But you did not notice that.

Subban: Not Bobby Orr.

Florida: Could improve on D prospects, and has other very good C prospects, and does not need a possible, yes quite possible, superstar french C prospect as much as Habs.

We would be incredibly lucky if Florida went for this deal.

But yeah, you're right. I'm wrong.

This is not the first time you've insultingly jumped all over me. Please be more polite. I'm not retarded.
PK has proven himself at a very young age in the NHL while Huberdeau hasn't proven anything at all. It would be foolish to trade a proven guy with potential for someone with potential alone.

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03-20-2012, 11:36 AM
  #260
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Habs: **** at center, at least if you want to win a cup. If you think Pleks, DD and Eller will get us there, that's fine. I do not.

Habs: Zero elite first line center prospects, and nobody trades them. Ever.

Huberdeau: Elite performing first line French Canadian center prospect.

Habs: Zero chance at picking an elite center prospect this year. And next year we will be better, and draft lower. And the year after that.

Huberdeau: Already developing, not in the same risk category as an 18 year old. And Florida will want to be compensated for that risk. But you never though of that, did you.

Habs: 3-4 very good D prospects, including one or 2 that can make mostly up for the loss of Subban.

Habs: Florida mid round pick: Yet another very good D prospect to mitigate against the loss of Subban. But you did not notice that.

Subban: Not Bobby Orr.

Florida: Could improve on D prospects, and has other very good C prospects, and does not need a possible, yes quite possible, superstar french C prospect as much as Habs.

We would be incredibly lucky if Florida went for this deal.

But yeah, you're right. I'm wrong.

This is not the first time you've insultingly jumped all over me. Please be more polite. I'm not retarded.
First off, I didn't insult you, I insulted your proposal. There's a difference.
Second, yes, it is retarded.
Third, we would get screwed if we went for this deal.

So you focus on the center position. Ya, we don't have an elite center. Your suggestion, trading our best player that played at the position that actually hurt us the more this year? Sorry, but yes, again, it is retarded. All this just to get a potential Elite center that will pan out in a few years? Nonsense.

PK is not Bobby Orr, agreed. Neither is Chara. What's your point? You want me to say that Huberdeau is not Gretzky? or Lemieux? or even Crosby? Of course not, because it means absolutely nothing.
PK is not even the best defenseman in the NHL at the moment, not even top 5.
Still, he is our best player, and he is already very, very solid. Superstar Potential.
I also never said I'm against trading PK. For the right return, I'm all ears but I just think that your trade proposal is a massive over payment from our part.

And who are those guys that could fill in to replace PK? Beaulieu? Kid is not even close to being ready, and it is way too early to tell if he will be able to become a solid #1 Dman as PK already is. And who at mid-range (at best) this year on defense will be able? That is extremely far fetched. Just seems like desperation from you to get Huberdeau.


So sorry but your proposal is just bad.


Last edited by Kriss E: 03-20-2012 at 01:42 PM.
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Old
03-20-2012, 11:45 AM
  #261
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That's retarded. First off, PK is already established as a very solid D with superstar potential. They should be offering Huberdeau+their 1st for him alone. Heck, they might even have to throw in more than that. If we put in our 1st as well, they will have to dish us out plenty more.
That's a retarded deal from us. Absolutely horrible.

I can't believe you think trading PK+top 3 pick is only worth Huberdeau+no better than mid 1st round pick. We'd be getting screwed there, big time.
On top of it all, it makes no sense for Florida, either. With Campbell, Jovo, Kulikov and Gudbranson it's not an area of need.

I would think they would want Pacioretty, which makes no sense for us, hoping a prospect can be as good as the player we're trading.

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03-20-2012, 11:50 AM
  #262
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You prove my point LG. All REAL trades are arguable. Of course dealing Subby is a huge risk.

I think we can mitigate against the risk with our existing D prospects, and with Florida mid round pick for yet another D prospect.

I don't think our pick is going to pan out at no. 6, as in a player that will lead us to a cup in 3 years. Not happening.

I thing Huberdeau is what we need to build a cup winning team. Of course I might be wrong, but cups are won with risks, not Kyle Chipchura.

And I don't think Subban is Bobby Orr, or even Raymond Bourque.

I look at it the other way round. We'd be lucky if Forida went for this in my view. Come on LG, you know that except for Joe 'I'm real dumb' Thornton, no elite centers, or even 19 year old elite C prospects, are EVER traded.

Subban is the only weapon we have to pull this off, and I think we can afford to do it. It is precisely because Subban is proven that Florida might take the bait.
Florida WOULD take the bait. I'd be shocked if they didn't. We'd be giving them a young dynamic blueliner who's already developed a fair bit in the NHL. At this point he's about average for a 1st pairing defenseman and he's only 22 years old. PLUS you're giving away a pick that could very well turn out to be better than Huberdeau himself.

Getting elite young players is a must. But you can't pay ANY price for it. Look what happened with the Leafs. They got a top five scorer in Kessel (something we could use) but everyone would KILL to undo that trade now. You'd be taking a huge risk here and I don't see how the rewards outweighs the potential downside.
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But I know you, especially, love wallowing in mediocrity, so why try to convince you?
Yes, 8th or die. That's my motto.
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Originally Posted by HabsSlappy View Post
Say we pick 6th and Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galcheyuk and Forsberg are all gone...
Would you guys be happy taking a shot at Collberg? It is kind of off the board according to concensus here, but if Timmins thinks he is something special like Skinner....what do you think?
I don't know enough about this years' crop or Collberg to be able to comment. But if Timmins gave his approval then I'd trust the guy. He seems to be right most of the time.

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03-20-2012, 12:43 PM
  #263
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....I think the need for the "resident statistician" has come and gone.

have fun, habs fans. good luck, Lafleurs Guy.

FWIW, I hope you guys tie for 8th and lose on the 3rd tiebreaker. but it would be best for your franchise if you tanked.

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03-20-2012, 12:48 PM
  #264
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What if Timmins believes Murray (or another defensemen) is the real deal and picks him ahead of some forwards we more desperately need. Would you guys be pissed or would you understand it might end up being a great pick?

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03-20-2012, 12:55 PM
  #265
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Originally Posted by HabsSlappy View Post
Say we pick 6th and Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galcheyuk and Forsberg are all gone...
Would you guys be happy taking a shot at Collberg? It is kind of off the board according to concensus here, but if Timmins thinks he is something special like Skinner....what do you think?
They'd probably pick one of the top dmen left at 6 if he's considered the BPA on their list.. Either Murray or Dumba.

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03-20-2012, 01:47 PM
  #266
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....I think the need for the "resident statistician" has come and gone.

have fun, habs fans. good luck, Lafleurs Guy.

FWIW, I hope you guys tie for 8th and lose on the 3rd tiebreaker. but it would be best for your franchise if you tanked.
Y'all come back now ya hear?

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03-20-2012, 01:55 PM
  #267
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What if Timmins believes Murray (or another defensemen) is the real deal and picks him ahead of some forwards we more desperately need. Would you guys be pissed or would you understand it might end up being a great pick?
I'm confident Timmins will make the right pick whether it's a forward or dman. Those cluless forward-obsessed HFtards have no influence on our pick.

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03-20-2012, 05:23 PM
  #268
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....I think the need for the "resident statistician" has come and gone.

have fun, habs fans. good luck, Lafleurs Guy.

FWIW, I hope you guys tie for 8th and lose on the 3rd tiebreaker. but it would be best for your franchise if you tanked.
Thanks a lot for coming by. Habs can't realistically finish 9th, but the Leafs still have a chance!

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03-20-2012, 05:53 PM
  #269
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Interesting article. Somebody made a thread out of it on it's own but it applies here as well.

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/en...#ixzz1peUkmRy7

Regardless of whether or not you agree with what the writer says about individual teams I do agree with him when he writes: "In drafting, quality counts for more than quantity."

Superstars have a huge impact on team success. And as the writer points out, we've done an amazing job of finding talent everywhere in the draft. Our problem is that we don't hit homeruns. And hitting homeruns is a lot harder to do when you aren't drafting high.
Home runs?

What about Price, McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban?

Isn't McDonagh first pairing on the best team in the NHL?

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03-20-2012, 05:59 PM
  #270
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Nobody knows what this team is going to look like in five years.

If the best player available is a dman good enough to be selected 3rd overall, then enjoy the privilege of having a dman good enough to be selected 3rd overall.

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03-20-2012, 06:03 PM
  #271
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Home runs?

What about Price, McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban?

Isn't McDonagh first pairing on the best team in the NHL?
Too soon to call any of them homeruns. Price maybe.

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03-20-2012, 06:13 PM
  #272
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Too soon to call any of them homeruns. Price maybe.
Subban and Pacioretty absolutely are. Subban's already a #1 defenseman if not a top-15 defenseman in the league and Pacioretty's goal-scoring is based upon sustainable shot-volume rather than fleeting shooting percentages. They're both very, very good hockey players and to get them where they were drafted is outstanding.

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03-20-2012, 06:34 PM
  #273
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You prove my point LG. All REAL trades are arguable. Of course dealing Subby is a huge risk.

I think we can mitigate against the risk with our existing D prospects, and with Florida mid round pick for yet another D prospect.

I don't think our pick is going to pan out at no. 6, as in a player that will lead us to a cup in 3 years. Not happening.

I thing Huberdeau is what we need to build a cup winning team. Of course I might be wrong, but cups are won with risks, not Kyle Chipchura.

And I don't think Subban is Bobby Orr, or even Raymond Bourque.

I look at it the other way round. We'd be lucky if Forida went for this in my view. Come on LG, you know that except for Joe 'I'm real dumb' Thornton, no elite centers, or even 19 year old elite C prospects, are EVER traded.

Subban is the only weapon we have to pull this off, and I think we can afford to do it. It is precisely because Subban is proven that Florida might take the bait.

But I know you, especially, love wallowing in mediocrity, so why try to convince you?
Who is going to replace subban? Beaulieu? Tinordi? We will be lucky if both develop into top 4 dmen, but neither of them are top pairing defensemen like subban. Sure you get huberdeau (who isn't even a center) and he is great and we'll most likely become an elite forward. However is it worth giving a potential star player in subban and our top 4 pick? No it is not, you talk about trading subban because he is proven, but huberdeau hasn't played a single nhl game yet. I really like huberdeau, I do but i don't believe we have to give up our top 4 pick and our star defenseman for him.

The reason why gm's don't trade for young centers is because they don't want to have overpay and then get burned. the risk/reward ratio is too high, no gm wants to trade their star defensemen and their lottery pick for an unproven player, because what happens if their pick becomes a franchise player and the defensemen goes on to win the norris and the young star center you traded for becomes a bust and you lose your job and become mike millbury 2.0.

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03-20-2012, 10:16 PM
  #274
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roke View Post
Subban and Pacioretty absolutely are. Subban's already a #1 defenseman if not a top-15 defenseman in the league and Pacioretty's goal-scoring is based upon sustainable shot-volume rather than fleeting shooting percentages. They're both very, very good hockey players and to get them where they were drafted is outstanding.
I think by homerun the author is talking about star players. Subban and Max aren't quite there yet. I think next season though we'll be talking a different story. I think the writer was talking about a higher standard for homerun.

I'm not going to argue with you too much on this though because I think that those guys will be stars. You're talking about future value and I think the author is talking about right now.

Subban legit first pairing blueliner? Yes. Star? Not yet. Ditto with Pacman.

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03-21-2012, 06:59 AM
  #275
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Reminds me when some HF posters fervently insisted Chris Higgins was a franchse player.

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