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Old
03-20-2012, 03:22 PM
  #51
hockeyball
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Originally Posted by DarrylshutzSydor View Post
Murray looks lost without Boyle, and Burnshas been coughing the puck up all year, what does he make a year again? we got Burned on that deal.
*sigh*

This crap again. Burns has been very good defensively. Second on the team behind Vlasic, and it's not really very close statistically.

As for giveaways, he leads the team, but only has 7 more than Boyle total, and thats what happens with offensive defensemen.

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Old
03-20-2012, 03:54 PM
  #52
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The problem to me sits with DW. He made a decision to bring in Niemi who is solid low but can be beat high and gives up big rebounds. He needs to have defenders there to block shots, clear rebounds, and keep enough connection with the offensive rush that high shots are held to a minimum, especially shots high on the blocker side. Play good defense around Niemi, and he will win because he won't let in shots low.

DW saw that last year so this year he gave up offense for defense, and never did pick up a scorer who could play a tweener role between the 3rd and 2nd lines in case Havlatt (or anyone else top 6) became hurt for an extended period. We've all known that was a need on this team. There had to be an aging vet out there who would be a utility player on the 3rd line, slot to the second on occasion, and take some PP time if called on? (Hoping Zeus wasn't DW's answer to that question.) We had the cap space for those kind of players.

The plan didn't go as expected. Havlatt did get hurt and the defense never did solidify around Niemi. Burns took forever to get his game going. Boyle was slow out of the gate and looked like he was getting old (before we discovered he was hurt). Murray got injured late and we've never put back Boyle and Murray together since. Demers has been up and down all year. Braun and Vlasic have taken steps this year, but the plan didn't work defensively.

Today, Niemi seems fragile to the point where I would rather play Griess who can at least start the offense and is more athletic. But in any case, I don't think TMac is going anywhere no matter what happens at this point. I would expect to see assistants change first, especially considering the massive drop in PK% this year. That might happen even if we do get to the WCF again.

DW will be forced to reevaluate his team again, but I would expect tweeks again not a cleaver. Niemi might be on the way out with the goalies we have in the system - no matter how well he does from here out. But I think the current players we have; their age, experience and positional slotting are sufficient to win still.

I believe any massive overhaul of the coach, system, or a gutting of the team reduces the chances of untimate team success next year, and the window with the top players isn't going to be open forever. If it falls apart next year, then I have no doubt TMac will be employed elsewhere. He still has a year of grace left.

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Old
03-20-2012, 03:55 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
And it was because the first period was poor from everyone except Clowe and Havlat. The changes I don't agree with but it had to be done. The team was awful in that period and were lucky to have scored twice and have it tied rather than be down.
But why mess with the one line that is scoring?

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Old
03-20-2012, 03:57 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Stickmata View Post
Other than Tmac's misguided faith in C. White all season, this is the only real criticism I have of the coaching staff this season. They have jumbled the lines and the lineup so much that I'm not surprised at the lack of chemistry the guys are showing. I'd be shocked if they could find any chemistry, given half of them are playing with different linemates every couple of games. Tmac has been in a constant state of experimentation far too late into the season. Set the lines and give them time to gel. I think he wasted way too much time this season with the wrong players in the lineup and too many different line combinations.

But I still think most of the fault for our predicament lies with the players. Doug Murray's effort on the last goal last night was pathetic.
Make that every couple of shifts.

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Old
03-20-2012, 04:03 PM
  #55
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In regards to changing lines:

Like SJeasy said, flexibility is key. But some core needs to be there; not everyone can be changing. Usually the D-pairs stay tight, plus 1-1 matchups on the third line. For example, Clowe-Couture and Thornton-Marleau may be constant; rotate the wingers for those two pairs and the bottom lines.

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Old
03-20-2012, 04:29 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
In regards to changing lines:

Like SJeasy said, flexibility is key. But some core needs to be there; not everyone can be changing. Usually the D-pairs stay tight, plus 1-1 matchups on the third line. For example, Clowe-Couture and Thornton-Marleau may be constant; rotate the wingers for those two pairs and the bottom lines.
Thanks.

Over time this year and IMO, the d pairs swaps are most frequently done to generate more offense when trailing. The most consistent line pairs have been Pavs/JT and Clowe/Couture. He has recently moved off those pairs as they have become much less effective. IMO, he held onto Pavs/JT far too long.

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Old
03-20-2012, 04:34 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by SharksFan1 View Post
But why mess with the one line that is scoring?
The only player that showed any real energy consistently was Martin Havlat. While Clowe was producing, he was still doing quite a bit of his normal stupid decisions with the puck. He also didn't seem all that engaged physically so my guess is that they were chalking up his points to coincidence or that it was all Havlat.

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Old
03-20-2012, 04:56 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Thanks.

Over time this year and IMO, the d pairs swaps are most frequently done to generate more offense when trailing. The most consistent line pairs have been Pavs/JT and Clowe/Couture. He has recently moved off those pairs as they have become much less effective. IMO, he held onto Pavs/JT far too long.
Pavs/JT has been the most effective combo of two-way players in the NHL this season. They had a bad game last night so he switched them around; I'm sure he'll have them back together tonight.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:12 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Pavs/JT has been the most effective combo of two-way players in the NHL this season. They had a bad game last night so he switched them around; I'm sure he'll have them back together tonight.
Their offensive contribution has dropped from the start of the year. Pavs really fell off during the losing streak. I saw the dropoff start about 25 games in. JT gets the puck, and someone goes to smother Pavs. They would leave Marleau open to do so and JT wasn't switching targets.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:15 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Their offensive contribution has dropped from the start of the year. Pavs really fell off during the losing streak. I saw the dropoff start about 25 games in. JT gets the puck, and someone goes to smother Pavs. They would leave Marleau open to do so and JT wasn't switching targets.
They were still generating tons of shots and scoring opportunities. And the point is they were playing against the best players the opposition had to offer and had the puck. Constantly. They're both near the top of the league in possession playing some of the toughest minutes of any forward in the NHL this year. That's what wins games. Shooting% is inherently transient.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:15 PM
  #61
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I wonder how well Marleau could shoot with a right handed stick?

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:21 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by SactoShark View Post
I wonder how well Marleau could shoot with a right handed stick?
He'd find a way to find the chest regardless of handedness.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:28 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
They were still generating tons of shots and scoring opportunities. And the point is they were playing against the best players the opposition had to offer and had the puck. Constantly. They're both near the top of the league in possession playing some of the toughest minutes of any forward in the NHL this year. That's what wins games. Shooting% is inherently transient.
Part of our general divergence. Some of those peaks and valleys in SH% are not random.

I agree about qualcomp to a lesser degree here because they have frequently used Marleau against top qualcomp to offset the strategy or personnel of other teams. I do think that the Pavs/JT possession game has been strong all year whether or not they are putting the puck in the net.

I do think that they should switch those core pairings of which Sry10 speaks enough so as to be able to play anyone with anyone. That was more an issue with Heatley/JT in the year where TM basically had them joined at the hip. He had no effective move when it completely fell apart in the playoffs.

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03-20-2012, 05:49 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Part of our general divergence. Some of those peaks and valleys in SH% are not random.
Regardless, even if results are all you care about, they're still #1 and #2 on the Sharks in +/- per 60 minutes at even strength. Doesn't really matter who's scoring the goals when you're outscoring the opposition (extremely high quality opposition at that) at the rate Thornton and Pavelski. They're also among the league leaders among forwards in that category.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:53 PM
  #65
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For some reason the 'speculation' tag on this thread made me laugh.

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:55 PM
  #66
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McLellan has gone Ron Wilson on the line changes. We need to bring back the Ron Wilson slot machine "Line-o-Matic" gif.

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:17 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Les Wynan View Post
Regardless, even if results are all you care about, they're still #1 and #2 on the Sharks in +/- per 60 minutes at even strength. Doesn't really matter who's scoring the goals when you're outscoring the opposition (extremely high quality opposition at that) at the rate Thornton and Pavelski. They're also among the league leaders among forwards in that category.
I'll give you the narrative for yourself and others. It comes from reading many articles and hearing interviews about and with several players. The Sedins are the best starting example. They have had a huge uptick in offensive efficacy since their start in the league. They are known for going home and working on different offensive strategies and tweaks every summer. They stay ahead of the curve for the most part before those defending them can catch up. I am not saying that they couldn't do other things to improve, but IMO they are getting a lot of mileage through what goes on between the ears. I don't think they are even near the top in physical gifts. The paradigm helps them continue to get high quality chances. The guys who fall off on SH% and stay there are few in number but they are usually marked by relative inability to adapt when others adapt to them or when some physical issue imposes itself on their game. The common term for aging players is losing their legs and is usually accompanied by a drop in SH%.

In some senses, trades are used to freshen or revamp strategies for teams. New wrinkles every year. A new AC or HC can have the same effect. The use of video has greatly accelerated the ability of teams to adapt to opponents and for teams to modify their own strategies. All of these issues play into SH%. SH% is close between teams but it doesn't take a lot to give an advantage. 0.5% over a year is huge. That is 25 goals or so. By your count of 6 goals per win, that is 8 points in the standings. I do see teams play for the 0.5% advantage by emphasizing quality chances. We just had Trotz and the Preds and I watched a tweaked version of his 3 man legal pick play entry. Same play as about 3 years ago when he started it and the one I saw was on steroids. Designed to spring a guy free on the goalie from a defended blueline with the defenders standing up and no dump in.

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:25 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
The only player that showed any real energy consistently was Martin Havlat. While Clowe was producing, he was still doing quite a bit of his normal stupid decisions with the puck. He also didn't seem all that engaged physically so my guess is that they were chalking up his points to coincidence or that it was all Havlat.
I just don't see how putting him on a different line would make him make "good" decisions or make him engage more physically. It just seems like change up the lines doesn't really solve any of the issues the Sharks are having. If it did they would be in first place, because TMac changes the line in the middle of every game.

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:25 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by SactoShark View Post
I wonder how well Marleau could shoot with a right handed stick?
He would aim for the chest, and then miss, and hit the corner of the net. Great idea!

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:26 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
I'll give you the narrative for yourself and others. It comes from reading many articles and hearing interviews about and with several players. The Sedins are the best starting example. They have had a huge uptick in offensive efficacy since their start in the league. They are known for going home and working on different offensive strategies and tweaks every summer. They stay ahead of the curve for the most part before those defending them can catch up. I am not saying that they couldn't do other things to improve, but IMO they are getting a lot of mileage through what goes on between the ears. I don't think they are even near the top in physical gifts. The paradigm helps them continue to get high quality chances. The guys who fall off on SH% and stay there are few in number but they are usually marked by relative inability to adapt when others adapt to them or when some physical issue imposes itself on their game. The common term for aging players is losing their legs and is usually accompanied by a drop in SH%.

In some senses, trades are used to freshen or revamp strategies for teams. New wrinkles every year. A new AC or HC can have the same effect. The use of video has greatly accelerated the ability of teams to adapt to opponents and for teams to modify their own strategies. All of these issues play into SH%. SH% is close between teams but it doesn't take a lot to give an advantage. 0.5% over a year is huge. That is 25 goals or so. By your count of 6 goals per win, that is 8 points in the standings. I do see teams play for the 0.5% advantage by emphasizing quality chances. We just had Trotz and the Preds and I watched a tweaked version of his 3 man legal pick play entry. Same play as about 3 years ago when he started it and the one I saw was on steroids. Designed to spring a guy free on the goalie from a defended blueline with the defenders standing up and no dump in.
There is one reason and one reason alone the Sedins have torn up the league the last few years: they start 80% of their shifts in the offensive zone. The way Vancouver deploys their forwards is radical and no team even comes close to replicating that. The Sedins are essentially used as offensive specialists (with Malhotra and before him Kesler used as defensive specialists) with no defensive responsibilities. Give any first-liner and even some second-liners that zone start rate and you'll have an Art Ross Trophy winner.

You can see anything you want but until you're able to prove there are teams that can consistently influence shot quality at both ends of the ice, there's no point in discussing it. If you can do that, I guarantee you teams will be lining up to pay you a lot of money for your predictive model. Tons of people have looked at this and concluded that, at the team level, there is no repeatability year-over-year in SH%. I've linked to the study many times, it's not exactly hard to re-do for yourself either if you're interested and have Excel. I've never denied that having a higher shooting percentage is immensely beneficial - the rub is in that teams are unable to sustain that year-to-year. "Luck" is viewed as a pejorative term but it shouldn't be and some things that are dismissed as luck are certainly constant strategic adjustments that are made. But some of it just randomness and it's been repeatedly shown that by far the largest component of team shooting percentage is randomness.

And, again, you still haven't addressed why you'd like to see Pavelski and Thornton split when they continue to lead the team (and are among league leaders) in even strength +/- playing against opposing teams' best.

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:35 PM
  #71
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In regards to goalies, coaches and goalie will always say "we need him to make the first save, we'll handle the rest." Usually, though, goaltenders will do a lot more than just this. In fact, just about every NHL goaltender will do more. We were a bit spoiled with Nabby, he swallowed up rebounds like a ********* at a bar. I wish Niemi went above the call of duty like that even once in a while.

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Old
03-20-2012, 06:54 PM
  #72
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I would only fire a coach if our team was stacked. We need a ton of pieces primarily bottom 6 and a lefty dman 2 way. If we give him that and he can't win in 2 year then cya. I don't think we have met the cup compliant roster specs.

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03-20-2012, 07:35 PM
  #73
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*sigh*

This crap again. Burns has been very good defensively. Second on the team behind Vlasic, and it's not really very close statistically.

As for giveaways, he leads the team, but only has 7 more than Boyle total, and thats what happens with offensive defensemen.
This. Also, when Burns does turn the puck over in my opinion he's the best on our team at getting back and covering for his mistakes because of his wheel's and size.

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03-20-2012, 07:59 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
I'll give you the narrative for yourself and others. It comes from reading many articles and hearing interviews about and with several players. The Sedins are the best starting example. They have had a huge uptick in offensive efficacy since their start in the league. They are known for going home and working on different offensive strategies and tweaks every summer. They stay ahead of the curve for the most part before those defending them can catch up. I am not saying that they couldn't do other things to improve, but IMO they are getting a lot of mileage through what goes on between the ears. I don't think they are even near the top in physical gifts. The paradigm helps them continue to get high quality chances. The guys who fall off on SH% and stay there are few in number but they are usually marked by relative inability to adapt when others adapt to them or when some physical issue imposes itself on their game. The common term for aging players is losing their legs and is usually accompanied by a drop in SH%.

In some senses, trades are used to freshen or revamp strategies for teams. New wrinkles every year. A new AC or HC can have the same effect. The use of video has greatly accelerated the ability of teams to adapt to opponents and for teams to modify their own strategies. All of these issues play into SH%. SH% is close between teams but it doesn't take a lot to give an advantage. 0.5% over a year is huge. That is 25 goals or so. By your count of 6 goals per win, that is 8 points in the standings. I do see teams play for the 0.5% advantage by emphasizing quality chances. We just had Trotz and the Preds and I watched a tweaked version of his 3 man legal pick play entry. Same play as about 3 years ago when he started it and the one I saw was on steroids. Designed to spring a guy free on the goalie from a defended blueline with the defenders standing up and no dump in.
I don't buy the supposed creativity and mental superiority the Sedins have. If true, why were they ineffective in the playoffs against tight systems? Creative, cerebral players are able to pick systems apart. In any case, they can adapt very well.

Les is correct. They get easy minutes and are used as offensive weapons. Very similar to Thornton during the Wilson years.

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Old
03-20-2012, 08:19 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Their offensive contribution has dropped from the start of the year. Pavs really fell off during the losing streak. I saw the dropoff start about 25 games in. JT gets the puck, and someone goes to smother Pavs. They would leave Marleau open to do so and JT wasn't switching targets.
how can the offensive contributions drop from the start of the season? pavs maybe, but surely not thornton.

thornton in the past 25 games has 30 points.
pavs in the past 25 games has 17 points.

compare that to the 1st 25 games.

thornton 23 points in 25 games.
pavs 21 points in 25 games.

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