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Are goalies overglorified in Montreal?

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Old
03-20-2012, 05:37 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Habsfanatical View Post
Goalie:A ... Goalie B:

38 wins ... 36 wins (91-92)
2.35 GAA ... 2.36 GAA (91-92)
.923 save % ... .918 save % (93-94)
8 SO ... 7 SO (93-94)
4206 mins played ...3935 minutes played (91-92)
72 games played ... 68 games played (93-94)

Age 23 (10-11) ... Age 26 (91-92).. Age 28 (93-94)


I'm not saying Goalie A will be as good or better then Goalie B but Goalie A still has 3 years of growing before he gets to Goalie B's age of "dominance"..

FYI.. Goalie A is Price and Goalie B is Roy and his best stats as a Hab
You do not take the era into consideration, in Roy years teams scored more goals... That is why he was more impressive, only 2 goalies were challenging him sometimes (Hasek, Brodeur).


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Old
03-20-2012, 06:00 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by NRG87 View Post
Since I feel bad that every single poster (and moderator) misunderstood Palindrom's point in his "Carbonneau: ''Without Budaj, we lose 8-2 tonight'' (Mon-Buf) thread", I'm going to reformulate on his behalf.
Thank for the attention.

I think overvaluing goalie is not only a Montreal phenomena but its about 80% of the NHL teams.

The average goalie is just better than ever in the NHL history. And for the average fans who watch their team a lot, their goalie look awesome, especially to the eye of long time hockey fan.

They often fail to realize that there are a lot of equally awesome goalie around the league.

The comments im the most tired to hear is ''without our goalie, our team could be so worse'' This often shortsighted comment omit to include an answer about, without our goalie, who would be the replacement?

Just imagine Montreal had traded Price last summer...

Then we could had signed a UFA like Theodore, Elliot, Harding, Smith, Giguere, Vokoun, Emery, Ellis, Garon.

Most of them are doing fine, and even if we assume they are all far from Price caliber (which could be argued). The player we could got by trading Price could make up for it.

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03-20-2012, 07:57 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
I know you dismissed the "era adjustment bit" but it's really something really necessary if you're going to be comparing players historically. .916 would have been fantastic in say, the 80s (and I assume before but I haven't looked) but Price's .916 this year has him 20th in the league. If you're going to be looking at save percentage all-time you need to start by somehow adjusting for era, get an idea of how much better a player is than his peers.
I know... that's why I said don't bother coming back with Roy. We all know Roy is the better goalie. Totally different era. You could've saved yourself the pie charts.

As for Price being 20th in the league... that's fine. But that's not my point. My point is that it's hard to maintain .916 OVER YOUR CAREER. The more you play, the harder it is to do. Lundqvist (arguably the best goalie in the game) came into this season with a .918 career percentage. After his career year he's now sitting at .920. Look at Kiprusoff. The guy has had dominant seasons and some not so dominant ones. He's considered an amazing goalie and he's sitting at .913.

The point I'm making is that .916 over the long haul is very good.


EDIT: Just looking at your charts now... I shouldn't have just dismissed them. They look interesting... I will comment later when I have time. Thanks for posting it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Thank for the attention.

I think overvaluing goalie is not only a Montreal phenomena but its about 80% of the NHL teams.

The average goalie is just better than ever in the NHL history. And for the average fans who watch their team a lot, their goalie look awesome, especially to the eye of long time hockey fan.

They often fail to realize that there are a lot of equally awesome goalie around the league.

The comments im the most tired to hear is ''without our goalie, our team could be so worse'' This often shortsighted comment omit to include an answer about, without our goalie, who would be the replacement?

Just imagine Montreal had traded Price last summer...

Then we could had signed a UFA like Theodore, Elliot, Harding, Smith, Giguere, Vokoun, Emery, Ellis, Garon.

Most of them are doing fine, and even if we assume they are all far from Price caliber (which could be argued). The player we could got by trading Price could make up for it.
So you think we'd be fine if we dealt away Price and replaced him with Brian Elliot? Are you serious?

Yeah, Brian Elliot is having a career year and got off to a hot start but he's a journeyman goalie. You are cherrypicking one year and assuming the results would be the same behind our AHL defense.

Price gives you a chance to win almost every night. All goalies will lose you some games but Price loses far less than most and on most nights he's been our best player this season. The problem with journeymen goalies is that they can play well and then completely disappear. You never know what you're going to get. One season might be good and then the next they completely go away and you're scrambling for another netminder. I'm sorry but are you going to feel good about going into next season with Emery or Giguere? You really think that they're going to give you the same night in night out performance as Price will over the long haul?

They won't.


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Old
03-20-2012, 09:58 AM
  #79
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Not sure about that. I'd say most of the louder Habs fans seem to blame Price for every single goal against him. But then there are also the fans that will blame the defense/deflections, etc.
95% of people here have their whipping boy for when a goal is scored.

There is a large margin who will throw Price under the bus (they are also way too many people who give him a free pass).

But there are also a lot of people who will blame a guy like Campoli for every goal --- I've seen it happen when he's not even on the ice. To be fair, I've seen that happen to Price too.

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03-20-2012, 10:23 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
Using Hockey-Reference's search tools[/url], since Price came into the league in 07-08 16 goaltenders have played at least 100 games (82 GP also works as the arbitrary limiter) and put up at least a .916 save percentage over that span, 11 of those greater than .916. Price is in pretty good company there, but he doesn't look elite to me, at least not yet. My understanding from what people more knowledgeable than me about goaltending is that his tools (i.e. technique) is still probably the best in the league so he may move into the upper-echelon of goaltenders in the league in the future but he isn't there yet.
I wouldn't classify him as superstar either. But certainly he's very good. Even disregarding his age here he stacks up well with very good goalies (most of whom are on much better teams)

Here are the goalies sorted with 200+ games since '08 (including this year.) This is save percentage.

1 Tim Thomas .926
2 Tomas Vokoun .922
3 Henrik Lundqvist .921
4 Pekka Rinne .921
5 Roberto Luongo .919
6 Jonas Hiller .918
7 Craig Anderson .917
8 Ryan Miller .917
9 Niklas Backstrom .916
10 Ilya Bryzgalov .916
11 Kari Lehtonen .916
12 Carey Price .916
13 Johnathan Quick .916

Interesting to see what one season can do for save percentage as well. Lundqvist was .918 coming into this year and his supreme season has raised it 3 points.

Consider the D that Price is playing behind this season. The guy has played very well for us and those numbers and where he stacks up is damn good. And when you factor in that those represent his first four seasons in the league and his age, it's awesome.

I just don't get why more folks aren't happy with this guy.

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03-20-2012, 11:27 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I wouldn't classify him as superstar either. But certainly he's very good. Even disregarding his age here he stacks up well with very good goalies (most of whom are on much better teams)

Here are the goalies sorted with 200+ games since '08 (including this year.) This is save percentage.

1 Tim Thomas .926
2 Tomas Vokoun .922
3 Henrik Lundqvist .921
4 Pekka Rinne .921
5 Roberto Luongo .919
6 Jonas Hiller .918
7 Craig Anderson .917
8 Ryan Miller .917
9 Niklas Backstrom .916
10 Ilya Bryzgalov .916
11 Kari Lehtonen .916
12 Carey Price .916
13 Johnathan Quick .916

Interesting to see what one season can do for save percentage as well. Lundqvist was .918 coming into this year and his supreme season has raised it 3 points.

Consider the D that Price is playing behind this season. The guy has played very well for us and those numbers and where he stacks up is damn good. And when you factor in that those represent his first four seasons in the league and his age, it's awesome.

I just don't get why more folks aren't happy with this guy.
Because he's been shoved down our throat by uncle Bob,the fans and media!


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Old
03-20-2012, 11:57 AM
  #82
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Because he's been shoved down our throat by uncle Bob,the fans and media!
Even if that were true... it's the stupidest reason in the world to be unhappy with a great goalie.

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Old
03-20-2012, 02:22 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Even if that were true... it's the stupidest reason in the world to be unhappy with a great goalie.
That's the thing,he's not great he might be one day but at the moment he is nowhere near great.He's a good goalie not great.That's what makes him a bit overrated and that's why some people don't like him.

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03-20-2012, 02:45 PM
  #84
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That's the thing,he's not great he might be one day but at the moment he is nowhere near great.He's a good goalie not great.That's what makes him a bit overrated and that's why some people don't like him.
So you don't like him because you disagree with someone else's evaluation of his play and value to our team.

Sounds legit.

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03-20-2012, 03:19 PM
  #85
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That's the thing,he's not great he might be one day but at the moment he is nowhere near great.He's a good goalie not great.That's what makes him a bit overrated and that's why some people don't like him.
Coming into this season would you have considered Lundqvist great? Because Price's numbers were pretty damn close to his.

I mean seriously man, I don't see how you can be upset with the performance he's given even this year considering the D he plays behind.

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03-20-2012, 03:24 PM
  #86
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That's the thing,he's not great he might be one day but at the moment he is nowhere near great.He's a good goalie not great.That's what makes him a bit overrated and that's why some people don't like him.
I agree that the word 'great' is overused and should be reserved for goalies of Roy/Hasek stature, but I also believe people calling Price (or Rinne/Lundqvist etc.) 'great' mean just very good to excellent. No one implies he`s equal to HOF goalies.

As for disliking him for being overhyped-it`s a natural reaction, not objective but understandable. I`m finding myself disliking Halak because of some fans showing him down my throat, and I know it`s irrational. Many people dislike Crosby for that reason.


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03-20-2012, 03:26 PM
  #87
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That's the thing,he's not great he might be one day but at the moment he is nowhere near great.He's a good goalie not great.That's what makes him a bit overrated and that's why some people don't like him.
However you define great, he's still our best player and at age 24 he's way ahead of his peers on the learning curve. He has an extremely rare combination of high-end skill, size, technique and ability to handle puck. Also he is a workhorse. We're very lucky to have him. Look at Toronto if you disagree.

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03-20-2012, 03:40 PM
  #88
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The guy is doing a good job I can't argue with that but for me he has a lot to prove before he's considered great.I also don't think he's untouchable because for me there's a lot of good goalies that would cost less then him when he sign his big contract.

I think that a player being over hyped is a good reason not to like him.I don't see what's great about him,the guy is good but atleast half of this league have a good goalie.He can be one day a great goalie but I'm going to wait and see because I've never been sold with what he could bring to the table yet...

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03-20-2012, 03:48 PM
  #89
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The guy is doing a good job I can't argue with that but for me he has a lot to prove before he's considered great.I also don't think he's untouchable because for me there's a lot of good goalies that would cost less then him when he sign his big contract.

I think that a player being over hyped is a good reason not to like him.I don't see what's great about him,the guy is good but atleast half of this league have a good goalie.He can be one day a great goalie but I'm going to wait and see because I've never been sold with what he could bring to the table yet...
You don't like a player, because of something he can't control? And this is a good reason not to like him? There are words for things like this.

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03-20-2012, 04:21 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post

Price gives you a chance to win almost every night.
You see ? you are doing it! (over-glorifying goalie, and overvaluing their role)

Without a Price, 27 teams are doing better than us.

With a Price allowing us to win almost every night, we are having one of the worst season in Montreal history.

And when Price isnt between the pipe, commentator says ''Without Budaj tonight we lose 8-2''

Yes Price give us a chance to win every night, so do most of the NHL goalies. If we didnt had Price and had A cheap UFA like Theodore he would also give us a chance to win every night.

I remember all the comment about Brygalov was the only reason Phoenix was competitive, Vokoun was the soul of Florida.
Well the life without them doesn't sound too bad.


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03-20-2012, 05:24 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I wouldn't classify him as superstar either. But certainly he's very good. Even disregarding his age here he stacks up well with very good goalies (most of whom are on much better teams)

Here are the goalies sorted with 200+ games since '08 (including this year.) This is save percentage.

1 Tim Thomas .926
2 Tomas Vokoun .922
3 Henrik Lundqvist .921
4 Pekka Rinne .921
5 Roberto Luongo .919
6 Jonas Hiller .918
7 Craig Anderson .917
8 Ryan Miller .917
9 Niklas Backstrom .916
10 Ilya Bryzgalov .916
11 Kari Lehtonen .916
12 Carey Price .916
13 Johnathan Quick .916

Interesting to see what one season can do for save percentage as well. Lundqvist was .918 coming into this year and his supreme season has raised it 3 points.

Consider the D that Price is playing behind this season. The guy has played very well for us and those numbers and where he stacks up is damn good. And when you factor in that those represent his first four seasons in the league and his age, it's awesome.

I just don't get why more folks aren't happy with this guy.
We left the wrong goalie unprotected right there... Bwa-wa-wa...

Oh well, 15 years ago...

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03-20-2012, 05:27 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I wouldn't classify him as superstar either. But certainly he's very good. Even disregarding his age here he stacks up well with very good goalies (most of whom are on much better teams)

Consider the D that Price is playing behind this season. The guy has played very well for us and those numbers and where he stacks up is damn good. And when you factor in that those represent his first four seasons in the league and his age, it's awesome.

I just don't get why more folks aren't happy with this guy.
Agreed that Price is good-to-very good right now. I have a couple of non-major concerns though. I don't have the links and I don't even remember which blog it was but they looked at goaltender save percentage and it actually peaked at quite a young age, about 24 as I recall (interestingly goal scorers also peak fairly young these days). I wish I remembered the blog... think it was a Leafs one... too much good writing out there these days to keep track of it all.

Secondly, I think the team effects on save percentage are probably smaller than one would think intuitively. Thomas Vokoun played on some awful teams but it didn't affect his save percentage that much. The Vancouver Province hockey blog had a post about Nick Backstrom's 'performance' under Jacques Lemaire compared to post-Lemaire coaches. His overall save percentage dropped, but his even-strength save percentage was the same. The author said the overall save percentage drop could be a result of Minnesota being a worse team and taking more penalties and allowing more powerplay goals against.

The penalties/special teams save percentage story for Backstrom makes at least intuitive sense to me and it accepts at least in part the team factor thing. When I've bothered to look at the Vezina candidates in past years (the exception being Tim Thomas who seems to be an exception to puck-stopping in every aspect) the guys who break into the top-3 tend to have very little change in even-strength save percentage, with the big leaps being made on special teams before those numbers regress.


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EDIT: Just looking at your charts now... I shouldn't have just dismissed them. They look interesting... I will comment later when I have time. Thanks for posting it.
I had them laying around so I figured I may as well post them. I should have included a chart with overall save percentage to help show my point that the big gains since 2005-06 have been mostly due to fewer powerplay goals against. The next time I decide to play around with Excel I should take a look at even-strength save percentage for individual goaltenders - there's a lot less variance in it which makes it probably a better measure of goaltender talent. Even then when looking at goalie statistics we're basically judging them based on something crude like RBIs, and NHL goaltenders are generally so close together in talent that you can't tell much.


In Price's case, his outstanding technique gives some hope for a bounce back to where he was last year. I haven't chimed in on the original topic, but I think we do over-glorify goalies in Montreal these days and don't take into account the amount of goaltender talent league-wide.

Even The Hockey News' future watch issue had Price as the only young face of the franchise, omitting Subban & Pacioretty entirely. At best I would say Price is the 4th-most important player on the team (behind Subban, Plekanec, and Pacioretty) in terms of driving results. That's not to say he's terrible or not important, but it's more difficult to find players like the aforementioned trio than it is a good goaltender (unless you have goalie myopia like Brian Burke).

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03-20-2012, 06:25 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
Agreed that Price is good-to-very good right now. I have a couple of non-major concerns though. I don't have the links and I don't even remember which blog it was but they looked at goaltender save percentage and it actually peaked at quite a young age, about 24 as I recall (interestingly goal scorers also peak fairly young these days). I wish I remembered the blog... think it was a Leafs one... too much good writing out there these days to keep track of it all.

Secondly, I think the team effects on save percentage are probably smaller than one would think intuitively. Thomas Vokoun played on some awful teams but it didn't affect his save percentage that much. The Vancouver Province hockey blog had a post about Nick Backstrom's 'performance' under Jacques Lemaire compared to post-Lemaire coaches. His overall save percentage dropped, but his even-strength save percentage was the same. The author said the overall save percentage drop could be a result of Minnesota being a worse team and taking more penalties and allowing more powerplay goals against.

The penalties/special teams save percentage story for Backstrom makes at least intuitive sense to me and it accepts at least in part the team factor thing. When I've bothered to look at the Vezina candidates in past years (the exception being Tim Thomas who seems to be an exception to puck-stopping in every aspect) the guys who break into the top-3 tend to have very little change in even-strength save percentage, with the big leaps being made on special teams before those numbers regress.




I had them laying around so I figured I may as well post them. I should have included a chart with overall save percentage to help show my point that the big gains since 2005-06 have been mostly due to fewer powerplay goals against. The next time I decide to play around with Excel I should take a look at even-strength save percentage for individual goaltenders - there's a lot less variance in it which makes it probably a better measure of goaltender talent. Even then when looking at goalie statistics we're basically judging them based on something crude like RBIs, and NHL goaltenders are generally so close together in talent that you can't tell much.


In Price's case, his outstanding technique gives some hope for a bounce back to where he was last year. I haven't chimed in on the original topic, but I think we do over-glorify goalies in Montreal these days and don't take into account the amount of goaltender talent league-wide.

Even The Hockey News' future watch issue had Price as the only young face of the franchise, omitting Subban & Pacioretty entirely. At best I would say Price is the 4th-most important player on the team (behind Subban, Plekanec, and Pacioretty) in terms of driving results. That's not to say he's terrible or not important, but it's more difficult to find players like the aforementioned trio than it is a good goaltender (unless you have goalie myopia like Brian Burke).
Just a big thumb up!

its rare i can find someone who doesnt overestimate team effect on a goalie stats. (there are study about it if you are interested, its likely to be about .006 on saves %)

I would like to get your link about goalie peaking age. if you could find it.

I really think because of the current oversupply of good goalie, young goalie are underused and its probable some teams missed the opportunity to make full use of a goalie peak (Schneider?)

Here is a small study i made about the performance of AHL goalie call up..maybe you will find it interresting

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...333&highlight=

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03-20-2012, 07:02 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
Just a big thumb up!

its rare i can find someone who doesnt overestimate team effect on a goalie stats. (there are study about it if you are interested, its likely to be about .006 on saves %)
I do think there's a team effect in goaltender performance/save percentage,the penalties/PP sv% theory with Backstrom is along those lines. For even-strength save percentage (which is what I prefer) I don't think the effect is big enough to really worry about all that much. At the very least the (statistical) tools at our disposal aren't good enough to tell us whether there is an effect, how it affects save percentage, and how big/small it is.

It's basically the defensive side of the shot quality thing. Every team in the NHL tries to create high-quality chances and prevent high-quality chances against, but with the crude statistical measures we have there's no evidence that they're able to do it sustainably better or worse than any other team in the league. Parity is a word that's thrown around a lot and in some cases it's overused such as in the playoff races where the loser point makes it seem like more teams are in than not. In terms of shot quality/shot prevention quality the parity in the league makes it very difficult to tell if there's any team-wide ability there. Teams are trying to make it an ability but the teams are close enough in talent that it's difficult to see any difference there.

Quote:
I would like to get your link about goalie peaking age. if you could find it.

I really think because of the current oversupply of good goalie, young goalie are underused and its probable some teams missed the opportunity to make full use of a goalie peak (Schneider?)

Here is a small study i made about the performance of AHL goalie call up..maybe you will find it interresting

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...333&highlight=
Your sample size is way, way, way too small to come to any big conclusions. It's also something you should be looking at over multiple seasons since callup performance this season could very easily be a fluke. You'd still be looking at an incredibly small sample size but looking at even-strength save percentage for all post-lockout AHL callups might give you a better idea That said, I think you got one thing absolutely right in your post:

Quote:
In many case, the difference between a NHL and AHL goalie could be more about opportunity than performance.
It takes about 150GP for an individual goaltender's save percentage to normalize to something around their "true talent" at the NHL level. With only 30 starting spots available the first impression is absolutely crucial for a goalie to continue to get chances to establish himself at the NHL level.

What that means is that if a bad goalie getting called up can go on a hot streak and establish a reptutation that keeps him in the NHL for a few years. Remember when Steve Mason was a Calder/Vezina/2014 Olympian candidate? He basically ran into a huge streak of luck for his first 41 games or so (8 shutouts in his first 41GP!) and has been abysmal since. That first-year performance landed him more opportunities from Columbus to be a starter, then a pretty big second contract despite evidence that he wasn't good because Scott Howson is a terrible GM.

On the other end of the scale I like to look at Tim Thomas though he's an especially odd choice. From the time he left college (at 22) to 26 or 27 he was never really given an opportunity to be a starter as a professional at any level. He headed over to Europe for a couple of seasons and did a good job, came back over and finally got a real chance in the AHL, and then managed to finally get his chance in the NHL to platoon for a season before taking the starting job (and he wasn't good until his 3rd full NHL season).

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03-20-2012, 07:21 PM
  #95
DrunkenHabz
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Well, when I look at Toronto's goalies, I'm fu*king glad we got Price.

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03-20-2012, 07:54 PM
  #96
NORiculous
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NRG87 View Post
Since I feel bad that every single poster (and moderator) misunderstood Palindrom's point in his "Carbonneau: ''Without Budaj, we lose 8-2 tonight'' (Mon-Buf) thread", I'm going to reformulate on his behalf.

Do you think that we tend to overglorify goalies in Montreal?

I do think, in general, that goalies get a little too much credit in Montreal. If Montreal wins, it's because of the goalie. And if they lose, it's usually because the team sucks despite the goalie. This is how it's always been here. Goalies are semi-deities here.

Now has Montreal had very good goalies over the years? Of course, we've been pretty fortunate at the goalie position. But I still feel as though there's always been a tendency here to discredit the team a little too much by attributing the lion's share of success to the .
Not true. T-BO, Price, Theo, etc.

They have all paid the price when they didn't play up to par.

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03-20-2012, 09:56 PM
  #97
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
You see ? you are doing it! (over-glorifying goalie, and overvaluing their role)

Without a Price, 27 teams are doing better than us.

With a Price allowing us to win almost every night, we are having one of the worst season in Montreal history.

And when Price isnt between the pipe, commentator says ''Without Budaj tonight we lose 8-2''

Yes Price give us a chance to win every night, so do most of the NHL goalies. If we didnt had Price and had A cheap UFA like Theodore he would also give us a chance to win every night.

I remember all the comment about Brygalov was the only reason Phoenix was competitive, Vokoun was the soul of Florida.
Well the life without them doesn't sound too bad .
Dude... he gives us a chance to win games almost every night he plays. That's not overhyping him.

We lose a lot of close games. I've heard people criticize him for not stealing enough games... well, you have to SCORE to win. And we haven't been good at scoring for a long freaking time. It's only now that we have a legit first line that's been put together and we're finally starting to see pucks go in. How many times have we been badly outplayed but still in the game? How many times have we had scoring chances that don't go in? Even when we outplay the other clubs our scorers STILL haven't been able to put pucks in the net.

Look at post #35 in this thread... we live and die by our goalies man. When you can't score your D and goaltending has to be good to win you games and we've had that. For the past decade we've usually been in the bottom third in scoring. We're offensively challenged and have been for a long time. That puts a hell of a lot of pressure on your goalie to be perfect. How many times has Price been our first star? Even when we lose he's still usually our best player.

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03-20-2012, 10:09 PM
  #98
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Roke View Post
Agreed that Price is good-to-very good right now. I have a couple of non-major concerns though. I don't have the links and I don't even remember which blog it was but they looked at goaltender save percentage and it actually peaked at quite a young age, about 24 as I recall (interestingly goal scorers also peak fairly young these days). I wish I remembered the blog... think it was a Leafs one... too much good writing out there these days to keep track of it all.

Secondly, I think the team effects on save percentage are probably smaller than one would think intuitively. Thomas Vokoun played on some awful teams but it didn't affect his save percentage that much. The Vancouver Province hockey blog had a post about Nick Backstrom's 'performance' under Jacques Lemaire compared to post-Lemaire coaches. His overall save percentage dropped, but his even-strength save percentage was the same. The author said the overall save percentage drop could be a result of Minnesota being a worse team and taking more penalties and allowing more powerplay goals against.

The penalties/special teams save percentage story for Backstrom makes at least intuitive sense to me and it accepts at least in part the team factor thing. When I've bothered to look at the Vezina candidates in past years (the exception being Tim Thomas who seems to be an exception to puck-stopping in every aspect) the guys who break into the top-3 tend to have very little change in even-strength save percentage, with the big leaps being made on special teams before those numbers regress.

I had them laying around so I figured I may as well post them. I should have included a chart with overall save percentage to help show my point that the big gains since 2005-06 have been mostly due to fewer powerplay goals against. The next time I decide to play around with Excel I should take a look at even-strength save percentage for individual goaltenders - there's a lot less variance in it which makes it probably a better measure of goaltender talent. Even then when looking at goalie statistics we're basically judging them based on something crude like RBIs, and NHL goaltenders are generally so close together in talent that you can't tell much.


In Price's case, his outstanding technique gives some hope for a bounce back to where he was last year. I haven't chimed in on the original topic, but I think we do over-glorify goalies in Montreal these days and don't take into account the amount of goaltender talent league-wide.

Even The Hockey News' future watch issue had Price as the only young face of the franchise, omitting Subban & Pacioretty entirely. At best I would say Price is the 4th-most important player on the team (behind Subban, Plekanec, and Pacioretty) in terms of driving results. That's not to say he's terrible or not important, but it's more difficult to find players like the aforementioned trio than it is a good goaltender (unless you have goalie myopia like Brian Burke).
Goalies are mission critical to team success. Look at what Belfour did for the Leafs. They were great with him because he'd stand on his head and they could go all out scoring. Now look at them. You put a decent netminder in there and they make the playoffs easily this year.

Our club doesn't score and right now has a very green blueline on its roster. We're currently 18th in goals per game and that's the best we've been in years. When you aren't scoring and have a green defense you're toast.

Consistent goalies who can log heavy icetime are not easy to find. Not many goalies can log the games that Price does and still put up good numbers. And he's doing it on a crap team. Yes, Subban is a great young player and so is MaxPac. But there's a reason Price was put on the cover of that story you were talking about... we're talking about a young player with a resume few can match when compared to by age.

Imagine what that guy would do behind Weber and Suter or Lidstrom or Chara... Imagine what he could do if our club could actually score some goals. He plays on below average teams that rely heavily on goaltending to make the playoffs. He's our best player (not saying much right now) and I don't think there's a GM out there who would disagree with that.

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Old
03-21-2012, 01:41 AM
  #99
Rise from the Ashes
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Everything is overglorified in Montreal, especially goaltenders. I think Price has had an off year IMO and is much better than what he has shown. Still, he will only improve with time.

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