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Elite talent in the draft

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03-21-2012, 09:25 AM
  #276
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
Reminds me when some HF posters fervently insisted Chris Higgins was a franchse player.
I thought that guy was going to be a consistent 30 goal man and was sure he'd have a 40 goal season at some point. Really, really liked that guy.

And then he fell off the face of the earth...

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Old
03-21-2012, 09:44 AM
  #277
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Contending teams generally always must have a No.1 D-man. We have Markov but with his injuries I have concerns over how lonh he will play for. PK is the only D-man you can say has the ability to be a No.1 D at this point, you dont trade him because while you may get your big missing piece at forward, you create a big missing piece on the blueline.

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03-21-2012, 09:53 AM
  #278
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
I thought that guy was going to be a consistent 30 goal man and was sure he'd have a 40 goal season at some point. Really, really liked that guy.

And then he fell off the face of the earth...
Never thought of Higgins as a franchise player but sure thought of him as maybe a very solid 2 way player who would score 30 or so, for sure a career top 6. I remember when him and Komi had worked their way into the line-up and were looked upon as building blocks for our future. Higgins and Komi saw themselves this way and you could see their excitement and they just relished that opportunity. It seemed to me as time went on and the Halak and Higgins and 2nd trade proposals started going around that they started to wear on Higgins. He used to smile and looked happy and as the media kept asking him about being traded he got more and more somber and didnt seem happy at all. His play started going down too. After he was traded I caught references in posts implying he was really into the partying, booze and maybe worse.Glad he seems to be back on track in Vancouver.

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Old
03-21-2012, 10:53 AM
  #279
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by yianik View Post
Never thought of Higgins as a franchise player but sure thought of him as maybe a very solid 2 way player who would score 30 or so, for sure a career top 6. I remember when him and Komi had worked their way into the line-up and were looked upon as building blocks for our future. Higgins and Komi saw themselves this way and you could see their excitement and they just relished that opportunity. It seemed to me as time went on and the Halak and Higgins and 2nd trade proposals started going around that they started to wear on Higgins. He used to smile and looked happy and as the media kept asking him about being traded he got more and more somber and didnt seem happy at all. His play started going down too. After he was traded I caught references in posts implying he was really into the partying, booze and maybe worse.Glad he seems to be back on track in Vancouver.
Strange... the guy always seemed to be so into conditioning. Hearing about booze just seems to contradict that but who knows what happened? All of a sudden the guy kept hitting goalposts, getting shafted by goalies... at first he just seemed snakebit but it kept happening over and over again. I still can't figure out what happpened with that guy.

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03-21-2012, 11:26 AM
  #280
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Strange... the guy always seemed to be so into conditioning. Hearing about booze just seems to contradict that but who knows what happened? All of a sudden the guy kept hitting goalposts, getting shafted by goalies... at first he just seemed snakebit but it kept happening over and over again. I still can't figure out what happpened with that guy.
Look, on the partying, booze and worse comment I made Im just mentioning stuff I picked up on these Boards, I have never read anything or heard anything from a legit source. I hesitated to put that in my reply because its rumour mongering stuff. Anyway, while I dont know the reasons obviously, for sure to me Higgins started looking haggard and robotically answered questions whereas before he looked keen to talk and seemed at ease .

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03-21-2012, 12:12 PM
  #281
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yianik View Post
Look, on the partying, booze and worse comment I made Im just mentioning stuff I picked up on these Boards, I have never read anything or heard anything from a legit source. I hesitated to put that in my reply because its rumour mongering stuff. Anyway, while I dont know the reasons obviously, for sure to me Higgins started looking haggard and robotically answered questions whereas before he looked keen to talk and seemed at ease .
I read that other stuff here as well. Don't know if it happened but it sure would explain a lot.

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03-21-2012, 12:25 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Too soon to call any of them homeruns. Price maybe.
I get your point about Subban/Pacioretty, and agree that it's probably too soon to call them "home runs" in the sense of being superstar caliber players (though, from a drafted spot pov, both are clearly "home runs" in terms of getting value from the pick).

Price on the other hand, I have to disagree with.
24 year old goalie with 120+ wins on his resume, 7th in Hart trophy voting & 5th in Vezina a year ago...

that's about as "superstar" or at least, "superstar in the making" as you can get at his position.

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03-21-2012, 12:28 PM
  #283
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
I get your point about Subban/Pacioretty, and agree that it's probably too soon to call them "home runs" in the sense of being superstar caliber players (though, from a drafted spot pov, both are clearly "home runs" in terms of getting value from the pick).

Price on the other hand, I have to disagree with.
24 year old goalie with 120+ wins on his resume, 7th in Hart trophy voting & 5th in Vezina a year ago...

that's about as "superstar" or at least, "superstar in the making" as you can get at his position.
But if we say this then there will be 100000 posters talking about how he's overrated and another 20000 saying should've kept Halak.

I'd prefer to just say... well, maybe he'll be a homerun.

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03-21-2012, 01:02 PM
  #284
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Higgins suffered some leg injuries that slowed him down. That's all.

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03-21-2012, 05:13 PM
  #285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baldrick View Post
Reminds me when some HF posters fervently insisted Chris Higgins was a franchse player.
He is a good player however. He had hands of stones and injury troubles in his last few years with the Habs, but he's an effective player now with Vancouver.

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Old
03-21-2012, 08:27 PM
  #286
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
He is a good player however. He had hands of stones and injury troubles in his last few years with the Habs, but he's an effective player now with Vancouver.
Glad to see that too, I always liked him.

I ran into Guy Lafleur at an airport years ago when Higgins was doing well and Guy thought he was a really good player. Who am I to argue with my namesake?

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Old
03-28-2012, 10:58 PM
  #287
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I saw 70s post this elsewhere and figured folks might be interested so:

Quote:
Alright, here we go. Only thing I did was change from "61-80" to "61-90" because I'm a stickler for patterns, and a 20-spot sized tier wouldn't make sense after one with 26 in it (35-60)

1st pick, 1969-2000 (32 picks)

superstars: 12 (38%)
above average players: 26 (81%)
contributing NHLers: 32 (100%)

2nd pick (32 picks)

superstars: 6 (19%)
above average NHLers: 26 (81%)
contributing NHLers: 31 (97%)

3rd pick (32 picks)

superstars: (13%)
above average NHLers: 24 (75%)
contributing NHLers: 30 (94%)

4th-6th picks (96 picks)

superstars: 16 (17%)
above average NHLers: 51 (53%)
contributing NHLers: 81 (84%)

7th-10th picks (128 picks)

superstars: 11 (8.5%)
above average NHLers: 57 (44%)
contributing NHLers: 104 (81%)

11th-20th picks (320 picks)

superstars: 15 (4.7%)
above average NHLers: 100 (31%)
contributing NHLers: 199 (62%)

21st-34th picks (648 picks)

superstars: 7 (1.1%)
above average NHLers: 82 (13%)
contributing NHLers: 220 (34%)

35th-60th picks (832 picks)

superstars: 8 (.9%)
above average NHLers: 92 (11%)
contributing NHLers: 273 (33%)

61st-90th picks (954 picks)

superstars: 6 (.6%)
above average NHLers: 69 (7.2%)
contributing NHLers: 221 (23%)

91st and on: (4227 picks)

superstars: 10 (.2%)
above average NHLers: 158 (3.7%)
contributing NHLers: 479 (11.3%)

In the above tiers of picks, the demonstrated likelihood of drafting a superstar goes like this:

38, 19, 13, 17, 8.5, 4.7, 1.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.2

the demonstrated likelihood of drafting an above average NHLer goes like this:

81, 81, 75, 53, 44, 31, 13, 11, 7.2, 3.7

the demonstrated likelihood of drafting a contributing NHLer goes like this:

100, 97, 94, 84, 81, 62, 34, 33, 11.3

These are perfectly linear relationships (actually they are more exponential than linear), with one small exception, which I bolded.

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