Probably true, although he's definitely done for a different reason than Mike Keane. Guys of Keane's caliber never stick around in the NHL at that age, not even for the Red Wings. Conversely, I doubt Redden's much worse than his peers such as Kaberle or Spacek at the same age, and their definitely lucky (maybe not financially lucky) not to have signed contracts right at the end of their primes that severely overpaid them going forward (they're still overpaid, just not bury-in-the-minors overpaid).
well to be fair, redden was in fact "much worse" than kaberle and spacek when in '09 and '10, which was the last time all three were in the NHL.
i'd also note that spacek is three years older than redden (kaberle is one year younger). at the age redden is right now, spacek was putting up 45 points in the NHL.
Jesus, am I really supposed to respond to that wall of text?
am I being criticized for having a substantial argument??
Quote:
- It's already been asserted that he was better in the regular season than the playoffs, so how can you justify cutting out his entire regular season? That's just bending over backwards to minimize what was clearly a strong season.
Yes, it was a "strong" season.
But he had at least 9 "stronger" seasons.
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- I don't need scouting reports, advanced stats or SI to substitute for my own memory. Based on the way you're writing, it doesn't sound like you actually saw Jovanovski first hand in 1996... am I reading that correctly?
I'll be posting them anyway.
Yes, I saw Jovanovski first hand a lot in 1996. I watched hockey highlights every night, and I watched 1-2 playoff games throughout. I have never claimed I was a skilled enough observer to pick out the defensive nuances of the players, and Jovanovski was actually one of my favourite players. I was a huge fan of him and McCabe, and a couple other young, tough defensemen with upside. I wished the Leafs would acquire all of them. I foolishly believed they'd form the core of the 1998 Olympic team over the "offense only" guys like Al MacInnis. Looking back I didn't realize there was a major distinction between physicality/toughness, and actual defensive play. It's something I've long since corrected in my evalution of defensemen.
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- Accuse me of revisionism all you like. I don't have a horse in this race. I'm not a Jovo fan, a Panthers fan, a Canucks fan... or an ATD participant. I have no reason to twist or fabricate arguments.
For the record, I'm not in this ATD, either.
When I post what the reports say it's going to be tough to stick to those guns.
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I am just telling you what I and other people clearly remember about Jovanovski's early career, because his strong start is highly relevant to talking about his career overall. If you disagree because you like Redden more, that's fine. But don't act like it's an open and shut case, or that other people's memories of these players are going to be overruled here.
Hobnobs said it best here.
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Originally Posted by markrander87
bingo
Thanks for the bingo, but I saw Jovo lots that year. Did you?
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Originally Posted by Hobnobs
The fact is that Jovo was an impactful player in his first playoffs for being a rookie and a third pairing guy. The rest is hype.
That is very well-put.
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Originally Posted by Big Phil
I don't know then, it doesn't say anything about this season on his profile.
one advantage hockeydb.com has over hockey-reference is that leagues other than the NHL are just a day behind instead of just to the end of last season.
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey
Is it really that hard to simply say "he was pretty good that year"? You make the guy sound like Shane Hnidy.
Absolutely he was pretty good that year. No one said he wasn't!
Thanks for the bingo, but I saw Jovo lots that year. Did you?
Whats the difference between an 8 year old watching hockey and a what 13/14 year old watching hockey? You think that makes any type of difference. You've already said above you thought MacInnis was an "offense only" defenseman, so your recollection of that time period is valued at nil.
Whats the difference between an 8 year old watching hockey and a what 13/14 year old watching hockey? You think that makes any type of difference. You've already said above you thought MacInnis was an "offense only" defenseman, so your recollection of that time period is valued at nil.
Right, just like I didn't realize Jovanovski was no good defensively. I learned that shortly after though.
And yes, a 14 year old watching hockey makes a huge difference compared to an 8-year old. I knew an immeasurable amount more about hockey by age 14 compared to age 8. Not to mention that like most people I remember 100% of my life at age 14 and not all of it at age 8. Why are we talking about this?
I’m not bothering to post the every word of positive stuff as I don’t have a lot of time here. This is just to get a good idea of what his career progression was like.
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Originally Posted by Sports Forecaster 1996-97
physically mature for a 20-year old… good potential as a passer… when he hits, it hurts… has made a good transition and is developing… expect him to develop offensively, but don’t overestimate him
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Originally Posted by Hockey Scouting Report 1996-97
as well as he played last season, there is still a tremendous upside because his talent is still raw… instead of worrying whether he is up for a game, coaches will probably have to curb some of his natural aggressiveness to keep him from headhunting and taking bad penalties… shower remarkable poise and has a relaxed attitude, but expectations will be sky-high for him and if the team gets off to a slow start he is bound to be one of the scapegoats… even if he sags a bit this season, he is the genuine article… he is starting to build a reputation as a potential Norris winner.
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Originally Posted by Sports Forecaster 1997-98
potential: to become defensively dominating, physical defenseman… makes some brutal plays in his own end, probably the result of trying to do too much. He’s not great offensively, but he’s improving. Projected role: to intimidate and play well defensively.
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Originally Posted by Hockey Scouting Report 1997-98
does not possess a great decision-making process yet and still makes some bad pinches… may develop along Scott Stevens.Ray Bourque lines and become a defenseman who can dominate in all zones… all of his skills are quite raw and are still catching up to his body… instead of neautralizing the Brendan Shanahans and Mark Messiers, Jovanovski is diverted from his game by the Trent Klatts and the Bill Bergs. He is so easy to distract that it must be at the top of every team’s game plan against the Panthers. He must play smarter… Too much happened too fast for Jovanovski in his rookieyear… both the team and the 21-year old were due for some bumps last season… how he deals with it is the question… there are a lot of scouts who feel Jovanovski was one of the most overrated players in the NHL last season. We saw it as a totally expected dip in his progression, but he needs to reverse the trend this season. Forget about Norris Trophy talk and the points. He can score 30 to 40 just by playing solid two-way defense and not taking so many risks.
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Originally Posted by Hockey Scouting Report 1998-99
Jovanovski appeared to be on the fast track to a Norris trophy career… the early hype has stunted his growth… time to concentrate on Jovanovski’s most vulnerable area: his head. He can’t believe he knows it all, because he doesn’t. he can’t try to do it all, because he can’t. With cautious guidance from new coach Terry Murray, Jovanovski must regain his confidence by doing the simple things well, such as chipping the puck off the glass instead of looking for a home run pass, and taking the hit when it’s there instead of foolishly getting out of position attempting to make a highlight splat.
Can this defenseman be saved? He’s only 22. He needs to forget about points and the Norris and regain his rookie form.
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Originally Posted by Sports Forecaster 1999-2000
After 4 seasons, he is still trying to live up to the hype… has yet to establish himself in the NHL…. Seems to lack hockey sense and makes bone-headed decisions at the worst times… will have to pick it up or risk being a player on the constant move.
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Originally Posted by McKeen’s 1999-2000
went to the finals as a rookie but has been plagued with inconsistency and costly mistakes for much of the last three campaigns.
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Originally Posted by Sports Forecaster 2000-2001
settling into GM place nicely… after being over-hyped as a rookie, expectations became highly inflated… is definitely maturing as a hockey player. Still gets caught out of position by being overly physical but he’s definitely an intimidating presence… back on the right track following a few difficult campaigns.
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Originally Posted by Hockey Scouting Report 2000-2001
Jovanovski cut down on bad penalties, quit running around looking for big hits, reduced his errors and tried to make his game more simple. It all worked. Do it again…. By concentrating on the defensive part of his game, Jovanovski’s offense came to him more easily.
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Originally Posted by McKeen’s 2000-2001
finally reaping dividends… showed much greater consistency in the second half… the intensity still wanes at times but the pieces appear to be falling into place.
Clearly following the 1999-2000 season it looked like he had “come around”. The 1997, 1998 and 1999 seasons were disastrous. The 1996 season was arguably the best of his first four, I admit, but it’s really rare for a player to actually be better at 19 than he is at 20, 21, and 22. He was perceived as better for sure. Lower expectations due to age, and hype due to draft position helped in that area as well.
As for whether he was better in his four pre-prime years compared to Redden in his three pre-prime years? Is there any question about that?
I didn’t get time to get to the 2000-2008 THNs to see how many times and how highly they showed up in the top-20 defensemen during their primes. That will come tonight.
Right, just like I didn't realize Jovanovski was no good defensively. I learned that shortly after though.
And yes, a 14 year old watching hockey makes a huge difference compared to an 8-year old. I knew an immeasurable amount more about hockey by age 14 compared to age 8. Not to mention that like most people I remember 100% of my life at age 14 and not all of it at age 8. Why are we talking about this?
Because you're contradicting yourself, you remember 100% of your life as a 14 year old
Clearly following the 1999-2000 season it looked like he had “come around”. The 1997, 1998 and 1999 seasons were disastrous. The 1996 season was arguably the best of his first four, I admit, but it’s really rare for a player to actually be better at 19 than he is at 20, 21, and 22. He was perceived as better for sure. Lower expectations due to age, and hype due to draft position helped in that area as well.
I appreciate the scouting quotes. They add a lot of substance to the discussion.
I hate to keep making the Phaneuf/Doughty comparison, because rookie Jovo wasn't at that level. But those are good recent examples of non-linear career progression from young defensive studs. Sometimes rookies simply tail off as they age -- either due to developing bad habits (this was definitely the case with Jovo), declining motivation, teammate changes, coaching changes, injuries, overconfidence, over-extension, "the book", or just flat-out having worse seasons. Sometimes things just don't fall into place the same way the second and third time around.
I think there are particularly strong parallels between Jovo and Phaneuf, the way they struggled to play such a reckless style as the years wore on, and ended up traded as "projects" for a new GM to worry about. Of course, Phaneuf's floor was a bit higher than Jovanovski's, but I think the sentiment was pretty common that he became less effective the season after he got paid.
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As for whether he was better in his four pre-prime years compared to Redden in his three pre-prime years? Is there any question about that?
As a whole, it looks like Redden has an edge here. I still think Jovanovski's '96 was the best single season, and his Finals run the most significant team accomplishment, so there's enough substance to make a worthwhile discussion. Which is all I was really shooting for in the first place -- discussing those seasons which were particularly important in Jovanovski's development.
I appreciate the scouting quotes. They add a lot of substance to the discussion.
I hate to keep making the Phaneuf/Doughty comparison, because rookie Jovo wasn't at that level. But those are good recent examples of non-linear career progression from young defensive studs. Sometimes rookies simply tail off as they age -- either due to developing bad habits (this was definitely the case with Jovo), declining motivation, teammate changes, coaching changes, injuries, overconfidence, over-extension, "the book", or just flat-out having worse seasons. Sometimes things just don't fall into place the same way the second and third time around.
Yeah, I admit it’s possible, I am not entirely sure it’s probable. Even with Phaneuf and Doughty, it was their 2nd year that was their best, so there was a progression from year 1. Not that I expect every player’s career to go the same.
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I think there are particularly strong parallels between Jovo and Phaneuf, the way they struggled to play such a reckless style as the years wore on, and ended up traded as "projects" for a new GM to worry about. Of course, Phaneuf's floor was a bit higher than Jovanovski's, but I think the sentiment was pretty common that he became less effective the season after he got paid.
I agree that Jovo, Phaneuf (and McCabe) are going to end up with three almost identical careers.
Quote:
As a whole, it looks like Redden has an edge here. I still think Jovanovski's '96 was the best single season, and his Finals run the most significant team accomplishment, so there's enough substance to make a worthwhile discussion. Which is all I was really shooting for in the first place -- discussing those seasons which were particularly important in Jovanovski's development.
It’s arguable, but I don’t fall on that side of the argument. Jovanovski was the #4 on a 92-point team that got to the finals. Redden was the #3 (with 23:27, very high for a #3, just 0:24 behind the #1) on a 103 point team (that somehow got swept in round 1). If we’re trying to isolate the day-to-day performance of each player and not give them too much credit for being one of 20 regulars on the team, I take Redden’s 1999 season there.
I wouldn’t put 1996 in his top-9 seasons (in which he was a #1-2 defenseman), so going back to your original post, I don’t feel guilty at all for choosing the period that I did, but it is arguably his next-best year after those nine.
Jovanovski was ranked 16th. though, in my defense, this is clearly a case of rookie season hype. It's not the only time they did something like this. Janne Niinimaa was somehow ranked 13th the following year.
heading into 1999-2000 season:
Redden was ranked 19th following the season I described earlier today.
heading into the 2001 season:
both players had a chance at being 15th-20th, but this year THN inexplicably omitted the top-20 defensemen. The TOC even says it's on page 18, but page 18 is a full page ad. I checked the next few issues and they never gave us the top-20 they left out.
edit: by using the 2002 list I was able to piece together the whole top-20 for 2001, since they show all the top-20's previous rankings and list players who made it the year before and didn't this year. Redden was 17th in 2001.
but, good news, now that I've dragged out all these issues, and assuming I locate my missing issue from 2008, I will be able to post the THN top-20 by position for every season from 1997 to the present. When I get around to it, that is.
