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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 2

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03-23-2012, 08:12 AM
  #1
squidz*
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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 2

The other thread was up over 975 posts, so continue the discussion here.

Thread Part 1


To clear the early draft speculation out of the Prospect Thread, talk about next year's draft here.



To start it off: Defense, defense, defense

Murray, Dumba, Trouba, Rielly and more!

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Players of Note
Nail Yakupov
Mikhail Grigorenko
Ryan Murray
Radek Faksa
Nick Ebert
Morgan Rielly
Alex Galchenyuk
Matt Dumba
Griffin Reinhart
Jacob Trouba
Derrick Pouliot
Martin Frk
Olli Määttä
Michael Matheson
Cody Ceci
Filip Forsberg



Draft Position Elimination Number
Explanation here

14th - Eliminated
13th - Eliminated
12th - Eliminated
11th - Eliminated
10th - Eliminated
9th - 2 points
8th - 3 points
7th - Current
6th - 4 points
5th - 4 points
4th - 3 points
3rd - 1 point
2nd - Eliminated
1st - Eliminated


Last edited by squidz*: 04-04-2012 at 07:46 AM. Reason: Updated chart
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03-23-2012, 08:34 AM
  #2
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Originally Posted by Timothy Freitag View Post
Count me in the Trouba camp. I got to see him play against Dubuque last week, and the kid is a stud. There were a ton of scouts at that game, which is no surprise since there were 5 potential 1st rounders on the ice.

Things I noticed while watching Trouba.
He's poised... the game is slower for him than for other players at the USHL level.
He plays with his head up and makes good passes out of the zone.
He's physical. He's not running around hitting people, but he wins the puck in the corners. Also, I got to see him answer the bell with Z Girgensons, and Trouba rocked him.
He's got an NHL body already. He was the most mature looking player on the Developmental team.

BTW... I saw scouts from Toronto, Buffalo, Anaheim that were wearing logo gear. Outside of that, there were another 7-8 guys sitting in the scouts section.
At this point, I would love to get Trouba in the organization. The TSN report from McKenzie said there were questions about his Hockey IQ, but I keep hearing how much of a non-issue that is from the people who've seen him play.

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03-23-2012, 08:50 AM
  #3
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
So now we define #1 defensemen by "who won the Norris trophy?" It's all well and good that "since 1993..." and that "Lidstrom was beatable" but the fact of the matter is, the league handed Lidstrom the trophy 7 times. He might have actually deserved to win 3 of those, but when one guy wins it over and over again, and you try to use that stat as some sort of proof that high draft picks are bad, you've gone completely off your rocker.

It's hardly worth arguing though. You've already had to switch your argument twice. A couple months ago you didn't want to select a defenseman in the first round because they bust so frequently. But we pointed out that was a completely fabricated fact with no basis in reality. Then you changed your story and you didn't want a defenseman in the first round because you can find all star defensemen later in the draft. But we pointed out that after the first round, each draft has an average of 1 defenseman who will make the all-star game ever in his career. Now you've got some bizarre analogy about how many win a trophy which is more a popularity contest than a real competition, and is only awarded to a single player every year.

You need to get over the fact that you can't magically conjure up a star forward or goal scoring winger. If Yakupov, Galchenyuk, or Grigorenko is available, draft them. If they're not, picking Faksa or Gaunce even 1st overall wouldn't magically convert them into a goal scoring winger any more than drafting Murray 4th would turn him into Nik Lidstrom. What you so clearly can't even begin to grasp the concept of is that you can only draft players who exist. You can't draft Phil Kessel 5th overall in this draft because Phil Kessel isn't eligible for this draft. LA could have taken Sam Gagne 4th overall in 2007, but he would still be Sam Gagne. Drafting him higher wouldn't have magically turned him into some sort of star. This team will make a selection based upon who is remaining on the draft board, and all your crying won't change a single iota of the potential and ability that those players possess. If the star forwards and goal scoring wingers are all gone (and they almost certainly will be if we're picking later than 5) then you can't pick them.
This is a magnificant response.

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03-23-2012, 08:52 AM
  #4
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the more i think about it the more i want to trade down and pick bystrom/lindholm. there is just something scary about drafting guys with major knee injuries. we have seen cuma get derailed by injuries and i would hate to see a top prospect of ours go through that again.

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03-23-2012, 08:52 AM
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This draft class scares me more than any other in recent memory. I don't know, maybe it's just my paranoia, but I can't help but think '1996 draft' for some reason...

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03-23-2012, 08:53 AM
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I would pick Trouba over Reilly. But that opinion should be given no weight.

As for Dumba, he's listed at 6'0" on the Red Deer website and he doesn't look small on the ice.

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03-23-2012, 09:09 AM
  #7
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Originally Posted by nickschultzfan View Post
I would pick Trouba over Reilly. But that opinion should be given no weight.

As for Dumba, he's listed at 6'0" on the Red Deer website and he doesn't look small on the ice.
I'm trying hard not to factor potentially inaccurate sizes from the start of the year into a be all, end all evaluation, but that listed 5'11" 165lbs on Elite Prospects keeps staring me back in the face. I've already forgotten from previous years, does the combine publish height/weight figures?

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03-23-2012, 09:09 AM
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I'm starting to like the idea of picking Dumba, but I don't know if we're going to finish low enough to pick him up. I wouldn't mind picking a Trouba at #6-#8. That's where we might be picking because of the better play lately. Here's our last games:

@ BUF
@ WAS
vs. NYR
vs. FLA
vs. LAK
@ CHI
@ NAS
vs. CHI
vs. PHX

We do have a decently good chance of only winning 2 of those games. If that's the case, we'd end up with 76 points. We'd be in all likelihood drafting in top 5 if that's the case, but we are getting healthy and having Koivu back will help the team win more games, so it's tough to say. I don't think we drop below #7.

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03-23-2012, 09:13 AM
  #9
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Originally Posted by vitogor View Post
This draft class scares me more than any other in recent memory. I don't know, maybe it's just my paranoia, but I can't help but think '1996 draft' for some reason...
I guess I was too young to know what you mean by your comparison to 1996. Seems to me it's like 2008 without the Doughty/Stamkos debate.

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03-23-2012, 09:16 AM
  #10
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Originally Posted by mnwildgophers View Post
I'm starting to like the idea of picking Dumba, but I don't know if we're going to finish low enough to pick him up. I wouldn't mind picking a Trouba at #6-#8. That's where we might be picking because of the better play lately. Here's our last games:

@ BUF
@ WAS
vs. NYR
vs. FLA
vs. LAK
@ CHI
@ NAS
vs. CHI
vs. PHX

We do have a decently good chance of only winning 2 of those games. If that's the case, we'd end up with 76 points. We'd be in all likelihood drafting in top 5 if that's the case, but we are getting healthy and having Koivu back will help the team win more games, so it's tough to say. I don't think we drop below #7.
we got koivu back but lost 2 d-men. We most likely will be playing curtis Foster and possiblty a rookie dman next game. The flames should have buried the wild but failed to do so and we caught a sleepy vancouver team. I wouldn't underestimate this teams ability to lose.

Can't say it isn't refreshing to see a win for a change though...

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03-23-2012, 09:19 AM
  #11
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Originally Posted by mnwildgophers View Post
I'm starting to like the idea of picking Dumba, but I don't know if we're going to finish low enough to pick him up. I wouldn't mind picking a Trouba at #6-#8. That's where we might be picking because of the better play lately. Here's our last games:

@ BUF
@ WAS
vs. NYR
vs. FLA
vs. LAK
@ CHI
@ NAS
vs. CHI
vs. PHX

We do have a decently good chance of only winning 2 of those games. If that's the case, we'd end up with 76 points. We'd be in all likelihood drafting in top 5 if that's the case, but we are getting healthy and having Koivu back will help the team win more games, so it's tough to say. I don't think we drop below #7.
I know I don't have the most recent standings chart up in the OP (Jarick posted a more recent one that I missed, but I'm waiting for a today one), but it seems that anything under 80 points should net a top 5 pick. Dumba could fall out of the top 5, but I don't see him later than 6th. The only scenario (barring an "off the board" selection) I see moving him down is Yak>Grig>Forsberg>Murray>Galchenyuk>Dumba. If we fall out of the top 5, I'm hoping for a run on defensemen, or other teams having a low opinion of Galchenyuk. My 6-10 wishlist is Galchenyuk>Rielly>Trouba>Ceci=Faksa.

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03-23-2012, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Casper View Post
we got koivu back but lost 2 d-men. We most likely will be playing curtis Foster and possiblty a rookie dman next game. The flames should have buried the wild but failed to do so and we caught a sleepy vancouver team. I wouldn't underestimate this teams ability to lose.

Can't say it isn't refreshing to see a win for a change though...
I'm with you there, but really, winning doesn't matter that much to me at this point. We can't make the playoffs even if we win the rest of the games, we'd be sitting at 90 points, just enough to miss it. I hate seeing the team playing horribly, but boy do we need an influx of young talent. I'd just rather have Flahr and co. having the pick of the litter.

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03-23-2012, 09:22 AM
  #13
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Minnesota down to 6th actual, 5th projected. The reverse-tank is on.

Pythagorean Draft Position
DraftTeamPtsGRPPGPythProjOddsHighest
1stCOLUMBUS5390.730.3326025.0%1st
2ndEDMONTON6780.910.4567518.8%1st
3rdMONTREAL6980.930.4717714.2%1st
4thNY ISLANDERS7190.970.3817910.7%1st
5thMINNESOTA7290.990.378808.1%1st
6thTORONTO7280.970.452806.2%2nd
7thTAMPA BAY7391.000.403814.7%3rd
8thANAHEIM7571.000.456823.6%4th
9thCAROLINA7581.010.464832.7%5th
10thWINNIPEG7691.040.462852.1%6th
11thBUFFALO8081.080.452881.5%7th
12thWASHINGTON8181.090.478901.1%8th
13thCALGARY8371.110.466900.8%9th
14thCOLORADO8561.120.480910.5%10th
15thOTTAWA8481.140.514930.0%15th
16thSAN JOSE8481.140.517930.0%16th
17thDALLAS8581.150.484940.0%17th
18thPHOENIX8671.150.516940.0%18th
19thFLORIDA8591.160.461940.0%19th
20thLOS ANGELES8681.160.544960.0%20th
21stNEW JERSEY8981.200.506980.0%21st
22ndBOSTON8791.190.6241000.0%22nd
23rdCHICAGO9271.230.5331000.0%23rd
24thNASHVILLE9281.240.5331020.0%24th
25thDETROIT9381.260.5981040.0%25th
26thPHILADELPHIA9481.270.5671040.0%26th
27thVANCOUVER9781.310.6031080.0%27th
28thPITTSBURGH9891.340.6261110.0%28th
29thST LOUIS10171.350.6481110.0%29th
30thNY RANGERS9991.360.6161110.0%30th

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03-23-2012, 09:23 AM
  #14
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I'm guessing at this point we're looking at Trouba or Rielly. Nail, Gal, and Grio will be gone as well as probably Murray and Dumba. Maybe we look at Forsberg?

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03-23-2012, 09:25 AM
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Minnesota down to 6th actual, 5th projected. The reverse-tank is on.

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03-23-2012, 09:40 AM
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Squidz: It's Olli Määttä. Not Maata.


Aside from that, I'm starting to warm at Trouba, if he's really as good as they say.

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03-23-2012, 09:52 AM
  #17
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Squidz: It's Olli Määttä. Not Maata.


Aside from that, I'm starting to warm at Trouba, if he's really as good as they say.
I had forgotten I even had those links in it. I've corrected it. I should probably flesh some more of that out, but I'm feeling lazy.

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03-23-2012, 10:28 AM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
I had forgotten I even had those links in it. I've corrected it. I should probably flesh some more of that out, but I'm feeling lazy.
It's pronounced [mættæ], if we ever end up drafting him.

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03-23-2012, 10:32 AM
  #19
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Okay, think I got it. Mat-a?

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03-23-2012, 10:35 AM
  #20
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Hakuna Matatta.

(sorry could not resist)

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03-23-2012, 10:57 AM
  #21
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Morgan Rielly is set to return to action for the Moose Jaw Warriors for their round 1 playoff series against Regina. The series starts tonight, but Rielly may not play the first game or two.

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03-23-2012, 11:04 AM
  #22
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Haha...no pressure, kid.

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03-23-2012, 11:10 AM
  #23
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I wonder when he started skating again and what his conditioning is like. His team is coming in having won their division and should be favored somewhat significantly over Regina. But Rielly is tied for 4th in scoring by defense (trailing 2nd by only 5 points) despite only playing 18 games this season.

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03-23-2012, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
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Okay, think I got it. Mat-a?
You're supposed to emphasize the first vowel, it's more like Ma~tt-a. And the [t] is quite hard, it's not soft.

You'll get the hang of it eventually. Then you can spell words like "kitkalukkovetopyörästö-öljy" effortlessly.

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03-23-2012, 11:32 AM
  #25
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You're supposed to emphasize the first vowel, it's more like Ma~tt-a. And the [t] is quite hard, it's not soft.

You'll get the hang of it eventually. Then you can spell words like "kitkalukkovetopyörästö-öljy" effortlessly.
Pretty sure my eyes melted trying to read that.

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