All Purpose Playoff Push Thread: Elimination Table, Magic Numbers, etc
Below is the maximum points a team can get factoring in head to head games. In the head to heads I always give losing team 1 point, so it's the maximum they can get.
The columns is the team that wins all their remaining games, the row will be the maximum the other teams can get if that team wins also wins at 100%. This obviously changes in when the two teams still have to play each other (i.e. the Devils could max 111 pts, but only 109 if the Sens win all their remaining games as we have 2 left against each other). The bold values in the row is the 9th placed team, i.e. the number you'd have to beat to be in 8th.
They can get 97 points max, and 8 of their remain 15 games are against teams in this group. I can add them pretty easily, but they'll probably be the first to be eliminated ... oh, wait.
The following is a mimum table, for those on the outside looking in. This is the minimum number of points a team can get. E.g. if you were trying to catch the Capitals, you would look in their column to see what they would get if they lost all their games (currently 76 points). Then look at the other teams in the column to see what their minimum would be (if they lost all their games too), in this case the Jets would also so have 76 points as they have two games left against the Capitals. This table will show elimiations before just looking at games remaining.
with BUF-86 if they stable out at .500 so we have a fair chance
no team has ever missed the playoffs in the east with 93 points so that's the magic number and all we need to do is play .500 hockey, keeping my fingers crossed!
Last edited by the tribute: 03-14-2012 at 01:15 PM.
We have a pretty good schedule for the remainder. We should be okay vs Habs and Leafs. Jersey twice could skew the results (4 point games); also Boston.
The magic number is the number of points needed to clinch a playoff spot.
The number is a combination of points from Sens wins and OTLs, and points that the Sabres miss out on earning (ie 1 point for a Sabres OTL, 2 points for a regulation loss).
Eg the Sens go 2-1-1 and the Sabres go 1-2-1 in the next 4 games. That means 5 points earned by us + 5 points missed by Buffalo, which equals the 10 points we need to clinch.
I'm still going by the tried and tested 92 points. Today's win was huge. That leaves 3 wins that we need. The fact that Washington and Buffalo play each other is a big plus in our favour. Shouldn't completely overlook the possibility that Florida or Boston misses. Probably a longshot, but not out of the realm of the possible.
Maximum Points: 97 current minumum required. Caps appear to be the team to beat out, right now.
Pos
GR
CurrPts
Bruins
Panthers
Devils
Sens
Caps
Jets
Sabres
Bolts
Leafs
Bruins
2
7
91
105
105
105
104
104
105
104
104
105
Panthers
3
7
87
101
101
101
101
100
100
101
101
101
Devils
6
6
90
102
102
102
101
102
102
102
101
102
Sens
7
6
86
97
98
97
98
98
97
98
98
98
Caps
8
6
84
95
95
96
96
96
96
95
95
96
Sabres
9
7
84
97
98
98
98
97
98
98
98
96
Jets
10
7
78
92
91
92
91
92
92
92
90
92
Bolts
11
8
75
90
91
90
91
90
89
91
91
90
Leafs
13
6
75
87
87
87
87
87
87
85
86
87
Minimum Points; 87 is the current minimum you need without a tie breaker, so for Leafs to get in, they'd have to win 6 straight to get to 87, the Caps & Sabres after tonight can't pick up any more points. After tonight the max either of those two could have would be 86 & 85.
For us to clinch mathematically still right now...
We need 3 wins in our next 5 - and Buffalo to lose tonight in regulation.
If Buffalo loses in OT, or Washington loses we need an extra win (because WSH currently has the tiebreaker for 8th).
Something I was looking at when I was looking at the B's playoff situation a few days ago is that if a team can get 94 points they are a lock to get in the playoffs. So the 3 wins in 5 is pretty accurate. In the years since the lockout in the Eastern Conference 8/9 has gone like this 93/91, 88/87, (an abberation it seems),93/93, 94/92, 92/91 and 92/90. So 92 points might get you guys in but 94 is what you should be aiming for.
Last edited by BergyMeister: 03-27-2012 at 12:21 PM.
Reason: added last line
After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.
The best for us is if the Sabres lose in regulation tonight. That would leave them 4 points back of the Sens with 5 games left just as it would if the Caps lose but the Sens hold the tie breaker over the Sabres. In that scenario, the Sens could win as few as 2 more times for 92 points and the Sabres would have to win 4 of 5 to tie and lose the other one in ot to gain the last spot over us. Of course if they lose in regulation tonight and the Sens win 3 out of 5 it won't matter what the Sabres do.
After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.
Bottom line - we are in pretty good shape. :-)
The magic number against the Caps is 9. They could lose 2 of 6 games in regulation and we could win 2 of 5 games of the magic 8 but they would still have another 8 points available to them for the tie so both teams would end up with 92 points. They would get into the playoffs on the row. 8 is the number with the Sabres though.
After last night, the magic number is down to eight. That is, any combination of Senators points gained, plus Sabres and Caps points lost, adding up to eight guarantees our ticket to the playoffs. After tonight, that number will be down to seven, or perhaps six, depending on if the Caps/Sabres game goes to OT.
