Mathletic's March Mock Draft

[Mathletic]

After posting my new rankings, I thought I'd post a new mock draft. You can look at my rankings here:

Feel free to ask any questions you like or make comments.


Round 1

1 - Nail Yakupov, RW, Sarnia Sting, OHL

Pretty much a given Yakupov will go n'1. All that matters now is where he'll end up. Marc-Antoine Godin mentionned that Columbus will shop the pick, so we shall see. That said, Yakupov is a solid pick for anyone at n'1

Alternate pick: Trade

2 - Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Québec Remparts, LHJMQ

The thought process goes like this for me. Grigorenko is the BPA at n'2. He's got the most value at the position, meaning he's much better than the next best player at the position than any d-man is compared to the next player at the position. Also, forwards hold better value than d-men. Edmonton controls Grigorenko's salary for a while and get more value with that money than for a d-man. Also, there should be some good d-men available on the FA market in the upcoming years. Whereas signing another forward would be pretty hard for Edmonton.

Alternate pick: Ryan Murray

3 - Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting, OHL

Terrible PR move with Markov out for most of the year due to a knee injury. However, Galchenyuk is a very valuable pick at the position. Given the Habs are pretty much stacked on D with Subban, Gorges, Beaulieu, Tinordi and great depth with Ellis and Dietz and others. Galchenyuk is more talented than Fosberg is IMO.

Alternate pick: Filip Forsberg

4 - Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer Rebels, WHL

Islanders have tried to get tougher as a whole. Dumba brings physical and offensive play from the blueline. Trouba and Murray would make sense however, with Donovan developing very well and Da Haan still developing I'd rather go with a RD here and I also have Dumba as a slightly better player than Murray and Trouba.

Alternate pick: Jacob Trouba

5 - Jacob Trouba, D, USA NTDP

Local guy, BPA, need at the position.

Alternate pick: Morgan Rielly

6 - Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL

Rielly would be the other option here with the offensive upside. However, Murray is pretty much a can't miss here IMO. Even though Hedman fills a similar defensive role, I still think Murray has great value at that spot.

Alternate pick: Morgan Rielly

7 - Filip Forsberg, RW, Leksands IF, SuperElit, Sweden

Leafs having to sign Kessel and Lupul in upcoming years along with Phaneuf, they need to give themselves some leverage on offense. Leafs have a big need on the wings, doubt Forsberg falls that far though.

Alternate pick: Sebastian Collberg

8 - Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

Though they have good depth on defense Reinhart brings a different aspect to the team. Big, safe physical player on defense will go along well the likes of Fowler and Schultz. Anaheim might want to give themselves some leverage on offense with Getzlaf's and Perry's contract up down the road.

Alternate pick: Sebastian Collberg

9 - Sebastian Collberg, RW, Frölunda HC, SuperElit, Sweden

Canes are already strong in net and on defense for years to come. The center line is good, so is the left side. Not much going on on the right side. Collberg a good 2-way game with some sniper abilities.

Alternate pick: Phil Di Giuseppe

10 - Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL

It remains to be seen if Winnipeg can sign Enstrom long term. That said, Rielly can be a 1st pairing d down the road. Other needs up front but talent is slim at forward and they get much more value with Rielly on defense.

Alternate pick: Teuvo Teräväinen

11 - Henrik Samuelsson, C, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

I wouldn't be surprised to see the pick traded. Sabres don't have much needs down the farms. That said, a big centerman has been requested by some time by fans. Samuelsson brings a physical and good 2-way game.

Alternate pick: Cody Ceci

12 - Radek Faksa, C, Kitchener Rangers, OHL

I like the depth on defense. At that spot Washington is left with good 2-way forwards, Gaunce may be bigger and more physical. I think Faksa brings a more complete game.

Alternate pick: Brendan Gaunce

13 - Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls, OHL

Who knows how Backlund will turn out. There's also a need on defense or pretty much everywhere for that matter with the Flames.

Alternate pick: Derrick Pouliot

14 - Derrick Pouliot, D, Portland Winterhawks, WHL

Offensive d-men are a need for San Jose. With Vlasic's contract up next year, they need they add some depth on defense.

Alternate pick: Olli Määttä

15 - (from Los Angeles) Colton Sissons, RW, Kelowna Rockets, WHL

I'm taking for granted Columbus will have LA's pick this year. After adding offense with their first pick. Columbus adds some more grit and leadership. After adding Jenner last year, they add a similar player in Sissons who can play both C or W and already captain on his Kelowna team.

Alternate pick: Cody Ceci

[Mathletic]

16 - (from Colorado) Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67's OHL

Already with a strong defensive corp, Caps could still add some depth on the right side of their defense.

Alternate pick: Phil Di Giuseppe

17 - Charles Hudon, LW, Chicoutimi Saguenéens, LHJMQ

Off the board pick a bit. Coyotes have to add some depth on offense. Though undersized. Hudon is a very talented player. Strong 2-way game, may remind some of Ray Whitney.

Alternate: Martin Frk

18 - Phil Di Giuseppe, LW, Michigan Wolverines, CCHA

Building through defense. After picking Campbell and Oleksiak. Guptill and Smith doing well. Dallas adds another big 2-way forward in order to build a solid defense and help Campbell or Lehtonen on the long run.

Alternate pick: Zemgus Girgensons

19 - Jordan Schmaltz, D, Green Bay Gamblers, USHL

Plenty of depth at every position. With Garrisson's contract up and who knows how much Campbell has left. Schmaltz will bring an offensive game from the blueline and help when Campbell will leave.

Alternate pick: Olli Määttä

20 - Olli Määttä, D, London Knights, OHL

I like Määttä a lot. Solid defensive game. After trading Rundblad, Sens can afford to add another D given the depth on offense.

Alternate pick: Slater Koekkoek

21 - Teuvo Teräväinen, RW, Jokerit, Jr. A SM-liiga, Finland

Intriguing player. May go top 10 give the talent. Devils don't have much going on the right side. With Parise's future as a Devil up in the air, Jersey needs to give themselves some more options.

Alternate pick: Martin Frk

22 - Martin Frk, RW, Halifax Mooseheads, LHJMQ

Great depth at most positions, Boston can afford to take on a high more risky player. Coming back from a concussion Frk had his ups and downs. No deny in his talent though. Physical player with some touch. Will takeover for Horoton if not resigned.

Alternate pick: Nick Ebert

23 - Andrei Vasilievski, G, Tolpar Ufa, MHL, Russia

Tons of depth at every position, Hawks can afford to draft Vasilevski given little depth in net outside of Simpson. Not sure Vasilevski will drop that far but still.

Alternate pick: Slater Koekkoek

24 - (from Detroit) Zemgus Girgensons, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL

With Connolly on the team, Killorn doing well and Namestnikov on the wings graduating soon, Bolts give themselves some depth at center. Girgensons will provide a good 2-way game.

Alternate pick: Nick Ebert

25 - (from Nashville) Mitchell Moroz, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

A bit of a reach here, that said. I'm sure some will see a Lucic type player in Moroz. Stuck behind great teammates Moroz has plenty of game to grow offensively. Already very physical and great size, IMO is a better prospect than Wilson is.

Alternate pick: Stéfan Matteau

26 - Nick Ebert, D, Windsor Spitfires, OHL

It will be interesting to see where Ebert ends up give his ups and downs. Flyers need help on defense in the future.

Alternate pick: Damon Severson

27 - Timothé Bozon, LW, Kamloops Blazers, WHL

Bozon gives the Canucks depth on the wing. It will be interesting how he develops given he came out of left field a bit to give Kamloops such a solid season.

Alternate pick: Stéfan Matteau

28 - Tomáš Hertl, C, HC Slavia Praha, Tipsport Extraliga, Czech Republic

No big need anywhere. However, with Crosby's future in limbo and Staal's contract up soon. Pens give themselves some leverage in case Staal moves up on the depth chart or simply leaves.

Alternate pick: Tom Wilson

29 - Stéfan Matteau, F, USA NTDP

Rangers getting tougher and tougher every year, no doubt Matteau fits the system. Not untalented, only needs to remain active and not get suspended all the time.

Alternate pick: Malcolm Subban

30 - Slater Koekkoek, D, Peterborough Petes, OHL

Solid players all over the depth chart. Koekkoek is a bit of a project at that point but could turn out a 1st pairing guy to complement Pietrangelo. Is he more of an offensive type or defensive player?

Alternate pick: Damon Severson




Round 2

31 - Columbus: Dylan Blujus, D, Brampton Battalion, OHL
32 - Edmonton: Damon Severson, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
33 - Montréal: Nicolas Kerdiles, F, USA NTDP
34 - New York Islanders: Tanner Pearson, LW, Barrie Colts, OHL
35 - Tampa Bay (from Minnesota via San Jose): Gemel Smith, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
36 - Tampa Bay: Tom Wilson, RW, Plymouth Whalers, OHL
37 - Toronto: Devin Shore, C, Whitby Fury, OJHL
38 - Anaheim: Pontus Åberg, W, Djurgårdens IF, Elitserien, Sweden
39 - Carolina: Scott Kosmachuk, RW, Guelph Storm, OHL
40 - Winnipeg: Coda Gordon, LW, Swift Current Broncos, WHL
41 - Buffalo: Jesse Graham, D, Niagara IceDogs, OHL
42 - Minnesota (from Washington via New Jersey): Cody Corbett, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
43 - Buffalo (from Calgary): Lukas Sutter, C, Saskatoon Blades, WHL
44 - Carolina (from San Jose): Troy Bourke, LW, Prince George Cougars, WHL
45 - Dallas (from Los Angeles via Philadelphia): Scott Laughton, C, Oshawa Generals, OHL
46 - Colorado: Daniil Zharkov, LW, Belleville Bulls, OHL
47 - Phoenix: Brady Vail, LW, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
48 - Dallas: Chandler Stephenson, LW, Regina Pats, WHL
49 - Tampa Bay (from Florida via Philadelphia): Malcolm Subban, G, Belleville, Bulls, OHL
50 - Columbus (from Ottawa bia Phoenix): Jon Gillies, G, Indianna Ice, USHL
51 - New Jersey: Joey LaLeggia, D, Denver University, WCHA
52 - Colorado (from Boston via Toronto): Branden Troock, RW, Seattle Thunderbirds, WHL
53 - Chicago: Michael Matheson, D, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL
54 - Detroit: Ludvig Byström, D, MODO Hockey, Elitserien, Sweden
55 - Compensatory Pick - San Jose: Brett, Kulak, D, Vancouver Giants, WHL
56 - Montréal (from Nashville): Dillon Fournier, D, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, LHJMQ
57 - Tampa Bay (from Philadelphia): Jarrod Maidens, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
58 - Vancouver: Andreas Athanasiou, C, London Knights, OHL
59 - Pittsburgh: Daniel Altshuller, Oshawa Generals ,OHL
60 - New York Rangers: Matia Marcantuoni, C, Kitchener Rangers, OHL
61 - St. Louis: Jake McCabe, D, Wisconsin Badgers, WCHA

[BruinsPortugal]

It's...different. But i enjoy the work you put into it.

Boston has no defensive depth, they are picking a dman you can bet on that.

[Mathletic]

Originally Posted by BruinsPortugal

It's...different. But i enjoy the work you put into it.

Boston has no defensive depth, they are picking a dman you can bet on that.

With Chara, Hamilton, McQuaid and even Boychuk on the team for some time, I thought Boston might simply want to go for a player with more value at the position. That said, Koekkoek or anyone like that would make sense as well.

[TribalPhoenix]

If Aberg drops into the second, Toronto is taking him without question. That said, I don't think he makes it past 25. Interesting analysis though.

[Zip15]

Originally Posted by Mathletic

11 - Henrik Samuelsson, C, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

I wouldn't be surprised to see the pick traded. Sabres don't have much needs down the farms. That said, a big centerman has been requested by some time by fans. Samuelsson brings a physical and good 2-way game.

Alternate pick: Cody Ceci

Given the way your board breaks, I'd be shocked if the Sabres didn't pick Faksa in this spot. They're probably familiar with Samuelsson, though, given that they've kept tabs on the development of 2010 1st rounder Mark Pysyk, a fellow Oil King.

Originally Posted by Mathletic

25 - (from Nashville) Mitchell Moroz, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

A bit of a reach here, that said. I'm sure some will see a Lucic type player in Moroz. Stuck behind great teammates Moroz has plenty of game to grow offensively. Already very physical and great size, IMO is a better prospect than Wilson is.

Alternate pick: Stéfan Matteau

Again, the way your board breaks, I'd hope they'd pick Hertl here. With Ennis' transition to center, and the acquisition of Hodgson, they've got a couple solid young players to develop at the center position. But we currently have no NHL centers at the AHL level--I happen to think Adam will make his living in the NHL at LW--and Sundher and Catenacci are still in juniors, and far from sure things in the middle.

I wouldn't hate this draft, but I'd love it if we got the two Czech centers in the 1st round.

[Tasty Biscuits]

Where is Matt Finn? Isn't he projected to go in the 1st round?

[Mathletic]

Originally Posted by Tasty Biscuits

Where is Matt Finn? Isn't he projected to go in the 1st round?

most people see him in the first. I can see him go there of course. However, ultimately I think he'll drop because of the depth at the position. I don't think he's superior to players like McCabe, Blujus, Mattheson and so on like Dumba or Murray can be. Pretty sure teams will reach for forwards or goalies first and get a d-man later because of great depth at the position this year.

[DuckJet]

Reinhart AND Aberg? Bummed about missing out on Trouba and Galchenyuk, but DAMN!

[MPStoEberletoHall]

Oilers will draft Wilson if he is still around at 32. They need a guy like that

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

Not a fan at all of drafting another undersized winger with our 1st round pick. We drafted Tedenby in the 1st round a couple of years ago, wich I wasn't a fan of btw with Carlson still available, so adding another skilled but undersized winger isn't what this team needs IMO. If we are lacking depth on the right side, I'd rather add depth via free agency and load up on our very weak blueline or between the pipes since our offense looks to be in good shape for the next couple of years.

If both Koekkoek or Vasilevski are still on the board, I hope Lou and Conte are willing to pick one of those guys over Teräväinen.

[HockeyGuruPitka]

your season begins draft day eh? Im pretty pumped to see who the leafs get. Hopefully keep our first rounder.

[DuckJet]

Originally Posted by MPStoEberletoHall

Oilers will draft Wilson if he is still around at 32. They need a guy like that

What the hell for?

The D needs help. A guy with Wilson's skill-set (not considering overall upside) can be readily available in the FA market and be ready to play much sooner.

Wilson is just another Tyler Biggs. Not exactly a MUST HAVE prospect. If you're looking for offense Kediles would be the better choice there.

[spfan]

Ryan Murray too low
Jets would not take a player like Morgan Rielly given that they already have offensive d-men Enstrom and Byfuglien, they do need a d-man, but one that is strong defensively too like Griffin Reinhart.
Henrik Samuelsson way too high
Colton Sissons too high
Cody Ceci a little low
Hudon too high
Maatta a little low
Mitchell Moroz too high
Ebert too high
Slater Koekoek too low
Ludvig Byström too low

[Tasty Biscuits]

Originally Posted by Mathletic

most people see him in the first. I can see him go there of course. However, ultimately I think he'll drop because of the depth at the position. I don't think he's superior to players like McCabe, Blujus, Mattheson and so on like Dumba or Murray can be. Pretty sure teams will reach for forwards or goalies first and get a d-man later because of great depth at the position this year.

I agree with that. Some good D-men will fall -- they always do.... I was just surprised you didn't have him going anywhere in the second round as well =P

[Mathletic]

Originally Posted by Tasty Biscuits

I agree with that. Some good D-men will fall -- they always do.... I was just surprised you didn't have him going anywhere in the second round as well =P

my bad, I must have deleted him from my list at some point thinking I had put him on a team. Definately don't think he'll make it through the 2nd round.

[AlMo]

-IMO, the Oilers should pick Ryan Murray. Your whole forwards have more value argument should be completely thrown out the window with the Oilers. Edmonton has to win games now and if they want to follow in the footsteps of the Pens and Hawks they need their Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook or Kris Letang.

-I also doubt Galchenyuk goes top 3. The kid lost a whole of year of development and I think a team with a top 5 pick will be looking for more of a sure thing. I am not doubting Alex's talent and he could be a real steal in the draft just not a number 3.

-As much as I would love to see the Leafs get Forsberg, I don't see how teams like the Wild or Lightning would pass on him (assuming Ryan Murray is off the board).

[tdfast]

I like the Oilers draft. They'll take the most talented player at #2, if the lottery doesn't change the draft position. They need size up front and still really only have 3-4 top 6 forwards. But then it's D all day after that. They need to get some talent into the system.

[Mathletic]

Originally Posted by AlMo

-IMO, the Oilers should pick Ryan Murray. Your whole forwards have more value argument should be completely thrown out the window with the Oilers. Edmonton has to win games now and if they want to follow in the footsteps of the Pens and Hawks they need their Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook or Kris Letang.

-I also doubt Galchenyuk goes top 3. The kid lost a whole of year of development and I think a team with a top 5 pick will be looking for more of a sure thing. I am not doubting Alex's talent and he could be a real steal in the draft just not a number 3.

-As much as I would love to see the Leafs get Forsberg, I don't see how teams like the Wild or Lightning would pass on him (assuming Ryan Murray is off the board).

If they want to win now, then they have to go with Grigorenko. I don't see how Dumba, Murray or Trouba helps them win now as they will all very likely go back to juniors.

I have no doubts both Murray and Dumba will at least end up as good d-men in the league. However, in this year's draft, especially, there's so much value on defense and so little on offense that any team that can get their hands on Grigorenko beyond n'1 should do it. I wouldn't be surprised to see a guy like Severson ending up better than Ceci or most other d-men in this draft.

Also, there's good free agents coming up on defense. Edmonton has a much better shot at players like Vlasic, Carle and so on in the future FA market than they will have on any forward.