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Old
03-25-2012, 03:37 PM
  #26
Fish on The Sand
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
FYI those are not the true odds as they don't take into account the rule that a team can only move up or down by 4 spots.

One would need to know exactly how it's calculated to figure out the adjusted odds. Do they pick the 16th place team first or the 1st place team first?
they draw one team, and they move up 4 spots. Those are the odds of being drawn and winning the lottery. I have no idea what you're talking about.

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Originally Posted by dcal64 View Post
Who do you think the Habs send to TSN to represent them?

Maybe we should have a poll on this, my guess is that it will not be PG.
Probably Timmins.


Last edited by Habsfan18: 03-25-2012 at 04:06 PM. Reason: merge
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Old
03-25-2012, 04:45 PM
  #27
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Edmonton wins! Our odds are up to 18.8% now!

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Old
03-25-2012, 05:19 PM
  #28
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Can we move back 4 spots? Or if we finish 3rd, the worst we do is end up with the 4th pick. Because I'll be plenty happy with the 4th pick. Would love that #1 though. If I'm not mistaken, didn't Pittsburgh move from 3rd to first to get Malkin? Or Fleury? I know one year Florida finished last, but didn't get the pick.

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Old
03-25-2012, 05:32 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by InglewoodJack View Post
Can we move back 4 spots? Or if we finish 3rd, the worst we do is end up with the 4th pick. Because I'll be plenty happy with the 4th pick. Would love that #1 though. If I'm not mistaken, didn't Pittsburgh move from 3rd to first to get Malkin? Or Fleury? I know one year Florida finished last, but didn't get the pick.
You cannot move up more than four spots, you cannot be pushed back more than one. If teams #2-5 win the lottery they move directly to first, anyone else moves up four slots (i.e. #6 moves to #2, #13 moves to #9 etc.). Everyone between where they started and where they land is pushed back one slot.

Whoever finishes last has an enormous advantage in addition to their direct odds of getting picked, because if anyone other than #2-5 win the lottery, last place keeps first pick.

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Old
03-25-2012, 05:34 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InglewoodJack View Post
Can we move back 4 spots? Or if we finish 3rd, the worst we do is end up with the 4th pick. Because I'll be plenty happy with the 4th pick. Would love that #1 though. If I'm not mistaken, didn't Pittsburgh move from 3rd to first to get Malkin? Or Fleury? I know one year Florida finished last, but didn't get the pick.
The most any team can move back is one spot.

Pittsburgh traded from third to first when they picked Fleury. They lost the lottery when they picked Malkin (Capitals won and moved from third to first, Penguins went down from first to second, Blackhawks went down from second to third).

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Old
03-25-2012, 05:57 PM
  #31
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We will trade our pick to Columbus along with Rene Borque+Weber for Rick Nash.

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Old
03-25-2012, 06:04 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Gary320 View Post
Knowing our luck this year, it wouldn't shock me if we move back a spot.
we should be ok to get a stud , Grigs ,Forsberg , or Galyenchuk

I am not sold on the D , they are small and are they really any better than Beaulieu ? The only d I like is Reinhart but a reach in the top 6

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Old
03-25-2012, 06:09 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
You cannot move up more than four spots, you cannot be pushed back more than one. If teams #2-5 win the lottery they move directly to first, anyone else moves up four slots (i.e. #6 moves to #2, #13 moves to #9 etc.). Everyone between where they started and where they land is pushed back one slot.

Whoever finishes last has an enormous advantage in addition to their direct odds of getting picked, because if anyone other than #2-5 win the lottery, last place keeps first pick.
so to clarify , if #4 moves to #1 , can the Habs lets say at #5 go to # 2 ?

I thought once the first pick is done , the lottery is over and all others fall back in place

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Old
03-25-2012, 06:20 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by onemorecup View Post
so to clarify , if #4 moves to #1 , can the Habs lets say at #5 go to # 2 ?

I thought once the first pick is done , the lottery is over and all others fall back in place
One team moves. Every other team slips back a notch according to what happens.

New Jersey won the lottery last year. Moving them up to (4th?) and every team that was ahead of New Jersey (but not ahead of 4th place) were moved back a slot.

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Old
03-25-2012, 06:49 PM
  #35
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Deleted. I totally miscounted


Last edited by zx81: 03-25-2012 at 07:26 PM.
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Old
03-25-2012, 06:51 PM
  #36
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If we land Grigorenko, all this will be worth it.

Maybe Mackinnon too while we're at it.


Last edited by Beaker: 03-25-2012 at 06:57 PM.
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Old
03-25-2012, 06:58 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by zx81 View Post
So basically the team that finishes last has over 70% chances of getting the 1st pick.
48.2%.

25% chance they win the lottery, 23.2% chance that a team 6-14th from last wins the lottery.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:08 PM
  #38
Playmaker09
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If we finish:

2nd, we have a 60% chance of retaining our pick or better (18.8% chance at 1st)

3rd, we have a 70% chance of retaining our pick or better (14.2% chance at 1st)

4th, we have a 77% chance of retaining our pick or better (10.7% chance at 1st)

5th, we have an 83% chance of retaining our pick or better (8.1% chance at 1st)

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:24 PM
  #39
zx81
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Originally Posted by Bill McNeal View Post
48.2%.

25% chance they win the lottery, 23.2% chance that a team 6-14th from last wins the lottery.
Thanks for the correction.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:25 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by onemorecup View Post
so to clarify , if #4 moves to #1 , can the Habs lets say at #5 go to # 2 ?

I thought once the first pick is done , the lottery is over and all others fall back in place
There is only one lottery pick. One team moves up, between zero and four teams move back one slot each. For example, if Columbus wins the lottery, nothing happens to anybody. If #2 wins the lottery (still undetermined who that will be) only Columbus is affected, they drop to #2. If #10 wins the lottery, they move to #6 and #6.7,8 and 9 all drop back one slot. Nobody else is affected.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:28 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Beaker View Post
If we land Grigorenko, all this will be worth it.

Maybe Mackinnon too while we're at it.
Or Yakupov.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:30 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
There is only one lottery pick. One team moves up, between zero and four teams move back one slot each. For example, if Columbus wins the lottery, nothing happens to anybody. If #2 wins the lottery (still undetermined who that will be) only Columbus is affected, they drop to #2. If #10 wins the lottery, they move to #6 and #6.7,8 and 9 all drop back one slot. Nobody else is affected.
Thank you for being the first person to explain how this works.

You rock !

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:35 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Beaker View Post
If we land Grigorenko, all this will be worth it.

Maybe Mackinnon too while we're at it.
I thought it went pretty well this year, I could do this again.

Mackinnon/jones/barkov/monahan any of those guys would be cool.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:36 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
There is only one lottery pick. One team moves up, between zero and four teams move back one slot each. For example, if Columbus wins the lottery, nothing happens to anybody. If #2 wins the lottery (still undetermined who that will be) only Columbus is affected, they drop to #2. If #10 wins the lottery, they move to #6 and #6.7,8 and 9 all drop back one slot. Nobody else is affected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Thank you for being the first person to explain how this works.

You rock !
Also it's only for the 1st rd.Everything reverts back to normal from the 2nd rd on.
We are sitting with the #2 pick right now. If the draw was today the worst we could end up with would be the 3rd the best-1st or we stay at 2nd. I LIKE.

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Old
03-25-2012, 07:39 PM
  #45
Kimota
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In my opinion the way the lottery should be done would be to have only the last 5 teams in it. Last team would have 10 balls, 29th team would have 6 balls, 28th team would have 4 balls, 27th team would have 2 balls and the 26th team would have 1 ball. Put it all in one machine, mix it up and the Top 5 is decided by wich balls are picked first, etc...

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Old
03-25-2012, 09:00 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Kimota View Post
In my opinion the way the lottery should be done would be to have only the last 5 teams in it. Last team would have 10 balls, 29th team would have 6 balls, 28th team would have 4 balls, 27th team would have 2 balls and the 26th team would have 1 ball. Put it all in one machine, mix it up and the Top 5 is decided by wich balls are picked first, etc...
Way to simple and logical for Mr. Bettman's NHL.

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Old
03-25-2012, 09:50 PM
  #47
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As of right now Habs got 2nd pick, Oilers won !

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Old
03-26-2012, 01:37 PM
  #48
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I have a funny feeling we will win the lottery in 2 weeks

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Old
03-26-2012, 02:45 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Habs 4 Life View Post
I have a funny feeling we will win the lottery in 2 weeks
i have a feeling the leafs will win it they didnt have their own 1st rounder the last 2 years the league needs to give them a gift

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Old
03-26-2012, 03:11 PM
  #50
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When does the draft lottery happen ? I can't wait.

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