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Reilly Smith signed to ELC, assigned to Dallas

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:04 PM
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Modo View Post
I'm not sure, exactly.

Came in here to figure out what the deal was.

Edited.
Oh come on, can I not have some fun? Can I put shun the nonbeliever instead?

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:12 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Cool ... I re-read it, and it was your 27 as of September note that threw me ... everything else we did agree on.

Since it's impossible for this to be an accrued season .. you're just saying if it wasn't, he'd reach 7 seasons and 27 years old at the same time.

But that's only true if you're working with the correct date of age which is June 30th and not September 15. Which ... based on your comment you knew that I guess you just typed September.
Yup. I screwed up my months while typing, but since he's an April baby, his age is the same in either case.

I was thinking along the lines that maybe one of the concessions the NHLPA goes for is an accrued season changes to 40 games or 2+ playoff games or something like that, which could make this season matter. But unless the UFA age changes (in which case, this whole discussion is moot), then playing this year has absolutely no effect regardless of whether becomes an accrued season or not. He's going to be a UFA at 27 in any case.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:13 PM
  #103
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LOL ... no pressure kid ... you're just Joe Nieuwendyk version 2 ... and you'll only be successful if you win more than 3 Stanley Cups.

Ohh ... and at some point we have to trade you for our future franchise player ... or you sucked.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:19 PM
  #104
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there's another possible impact/motivation here.. making the playoffs this year could have a significant impact on the stars ability to attract free agents next year... and that would make this more than a here and now move.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:19 PM
  #105
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Basically it boils down to:

1) Does Dallas have an owner willing to potentially overspend?

.. and apparently the answer is yes. They only thing this move costs is potential cash sooner.

Since the visa issues would have still existed in the AHL as well .. let's say his best case scenario was to play 9 (joined Thursday) or 8 (joined next Saturday) AHL games.

Now, he's going to probably play at least 6 (joins Wednesday) or 5 (joins Friday) NHL games. Plus, there's a realistic shot he plays at least 4 playoff games.

Even if they do make the rather strange decision of blowing an ELC year for 4th line NHL minutes, a handful of games with 4th line minutes instead of a handful of games with top line minutes in the AHL isn't going to destroy his career.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:24 PM
  #106
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Someone did bring up the cap ... and it is going down next year ... and most reports have it only going to $60 million. Dallas is as far as you can get from major cap issues even if the cap stays the same for 2 or 3 more years at $60 million (which seems unlikely).

We already went over all the cap scenarios in the Kari contract thread. Yeah you should plan ahead, but they don't have a single major trash contract. Everything is either a good contract or one expiring soon. They are in a very healthy cap situation. They'd need to make a Scott Gomez-Wade Redden signing to hurt that situation for the next few years.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:25 PM
  #107
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Ok you two explained what I needed to know. 27 or 7 years, whichever comes first. So for the college guys it's going to be 27. For the junior guys, depending on how long they play for their junior team but as a general guideline assume 27 unless they were 20 or younger when they debuted. Baseball is pretty straight forward and this isn't that much different. Thanks for the info.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:25 PM
  #108
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It's not just a question of cash, it's a question of future cap space.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:27 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
It's not just a question of cash, it's a question of future cap space.
yes but we don't really have any idea what is going to become of the 2nd contract in the CBA it is just a calculated risk

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:29 PM
  #110
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It would be reasonable to assume a system similar to the current one until proven otherwise.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:30 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
It's not just a question of cash, it's a question of future cap space.
Those are the exact same thing.

... and I just addressed the future cap. I'd love a reasonable example of why Dallas is going to be in cap hell in 2 years when he's a RFA.

If you're speculating they'll go nuts in free agency which GMJN and Gaglardi already said that's not the play, you're potentially right.

If you're saying just based on re-signing current players, how much are you expecting these guys to sign for? There's no indication Dallas is going to need to start handing out several $4, $5, or $6 million contracts anytime soon.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:39 PM
  #112
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Instead of going doomsday on this situation ... workout a scenario they can't pay someone:

They have $12.15 million invested in 3 players (Eriksson, Goligoski, Daley)

Core players to sign this summer: Jamie Benn, Philip Larsen

Core players to sign summer 2013: Michael Ryder (potential), Kari Lehtonen (potential), Tomas Vincour (potential), Matt Fraser (potential)

Core players to sign summer 2013: Steve Ott (potential), Reilly Smith (potential), Scott Glennie (potential), Austin Smith (potential), Philip Larsen (chances of a bridge contact seem reasonable)

Potential = they could command a large salary increase (Philip Larsen's 2nd post-ELC contract) ... or in some older players' case might no even be offered a contract (Ryder because of prospect's pushing for playing time)

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:40 PM
  #113
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Random, I got so lost in your discussion.

But Crosby's birthday is very easy to remember. 8-7-87.

I wouldn't put too much thought into any of this until the new CBA comes out. For all we know, it could be entirely different. Also, unless the number of games (40) changes, even if playoffs are included, there's no way he reaches 40.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:44 PM
  #114
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Probably not right to leave Morrow and Ribs off next summer even though I can't see them re-signing with Dallas and also getting a raise. I think Morrow's contract would be significantly less depending on how surgery goes, and Ribs would probably get similar money if they want to keep him.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:44 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Those are the exact same thing.
How are cash and cap space the same thing? They would be paying the individual more cash sooner and he would be using up more cap space sooner. I don't care about the cash component.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
... and I just addressed the future cap. I'd love a reasonable example of why Dallas is going to be in cap hell in 2 years when he's a RFA.
I'm saying that we don't know what the cap situation will look like in 2+ years and I'd prefer having the extra flexibility that R. Smith playing on his ELC would provide. I don't think this is exactly a controversial opinion.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:50 PM
  #116
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Realistically by the time they need to re-sign Reilly Smith, they'll have handed or in the process of handing a large contract to Jamie Benn, Kari Lehtonen, and Philip Larsen (2nd contract).

I really, really like Ryder, I just don't know they'll match what he could get in free agency assuming he has another good season next year.

I still don't see Dallas pushing $60 with any of these names we're throwing out. If we want to start complaining if they give Jeff Finger $3.5 million or Ville Leino $4.5 million in free agency in the next 2 years, I'd love to re-address this doomsday scenario where burning a year on Reilly's contract actually has a major impact on the cap.

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Old
03-25-2012, 10:58 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
How are cash and cap space the same thing? They would be paying the individual more cash sooner and he would be using up more cap space sooner. I don't care about the cash component.
Because contracts in the NHL are paid in cash. Cap space is an average of that cash paid over the term of a contract.

If you're worried about cap space because of a new contract, your worried about how much cash that player is going to command.

You're also failing to address glovesaves point that this might actually save Dallas cap space/cash. If Benn was an RFA last year, he would have earned less money than he will this summer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I'm saying that we don't know what the cap situation will look like in 2+ years and I'd prefer having the extra flexibility that R. Smith playing on his ELC would provide. I don't think this is exactly a controversial opinion.
We can't predict what the cap situation is going to be like in 2 years? But .... you're predicting that Reilly Smith will be so good in 2 years his contract is a potential burden on the cap? I'm confused.

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Old
03-25-2012, 11:02 PM
  #118
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It's probably safe to assume Reilly Smith got a max salary deal paying him $900K ... even Austin Smith got the max salary deal.

So lets just consider the money we're talking about?

He's mediocre to solid .. get and Eriksson like bridge deal. Now we're arguing about $700K in 2 years.

He's good not great .. breaks 20 goals 2 years in a row ... now he gets a deal similar to Neal for around lets say $3 even ... so $2.1 million is a burden?

He dominates .... pushes 80 points once or twice or even hits 30 goals and misses the bridge contract all together ... so Eriksson's 2nd deal? Something similar to Benn? That's not really a burden as much as it's fantastic for Dallas that they have another core player.

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03-25-2012, 11:05 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
It's probably safe to assume Reilly Smith got a max salary deal paying him $900K ... even Austin Smith got the max salary deal.

So lets just consider the money we're talking about?

He's mediocre to solid .. get and Eriksson like bridge deal. Now we're arguing about $700K in 2 years.

He's good not great .. breaks 20 goals 2 years in a row ... now he gets a deal similar to Neal for around lets say $3 even ... so $2.1 million is a burden?

He dominates .... pushes 80 points once or twice or even hits 30 goals and misses the bridge contract all together ... so Eriksson's 2nd deal? Something similar to Benn? That's not really a burden as much as it's fantastic for Dallas that they have another core player.
Yeah, it's either not a big deal or it is and we all have reason to celebrate.

I also really like that this gives the organization a chance to analyze their prospect to help determine a plan of action during free agency this year.

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03-26-2012, 12:55 AM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
We can't predict what the cap situation is going to be like in 2 years? But .... you're predicting that Reilly Smith will be so good in 2 years his contract is a potential burden on the cap? I'm confused.
I'm saying he'll sign a contract for a higher cap hit than his ELC. This isn't complicated.

No one's saying we'll be in "cap hell" or it will be a "doomsday scenario". All the hyperbole is invented by you.

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Old
03-26-2012, 01:36 AM
  #121
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What if he's so bad that the third year of his ELC becomes a burden on the contract limit?

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Old
03-26-2012, 07:01 AM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I'm saying he'll sign a contract for a higher cap hit than his ELC. This isn't complicated.

No one's saying we'll be in "cap hell" or it will be a "doomsday scenario". All the hyperbole is invented by you.
You're right it's not complicated.

I'm saying you're twisted over $700K to $2 million in extra cap space for a single season. Unless they are in "cap hell", that is insignificant.

So you're entire contention over him burning an ELC year is over a hypothetical situation where his inflated cap hit somehow hurts the team. I didn't invent anything ... that's exactly what you are claiming.

Otherwise, your claim is that him burning an ELC is bad because it raise Dallas' payroll ... that's it. Not even that it potentially pushes them over the cap .... just they'll have less cap space.

However, the fact that you specifically mentioned cap flexibility earlier proves I'm not putting words in your mouth or creating some cap hell situation. A higher cap hit to Reilly only hurts cap flexibility if Dallas is spending to the cap in two years.

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Old
03-26-2012, 10:05 AM
  #123
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I'm not quite sure how I feel about burning a year of the ELC but I do know this conversation is not boring to me. In the end I really doubt it'll become any sort of problem.

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Old
03-26-2012, 10:45 AM
  #124
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One last thing piqued, this is what I was asking you to do:

Project the 2014-15 Cap Situation

Smith ($4.0)-Benn ($6.0)-Chiasson ($0.9)
Eriksson ($4.25)-Ribeiro ($5.0)-Ryder ($5.0)
Morrow ($4.0)-Ott ($3.0)-Vincour ($2.0)
Player ($1.0)-Player ($1.0)-Glennie ($2.0)
Player ($1.0)-Player ($1.0)

Goligoski ($4.6) - Larsen ($5.0)
Oleksiak ($1.4) - Daley ($3.3)
Nemeth ($0.9) - Player ($3.0)
Player ($1.0)

Lehtonen ($7.0)
Campbell ($1.37)

IMO ... I've gone as over the top on salary projections as possible ... and I still come to $67.72 million in payroll.

The names don't even matter. Larsen doesn't become a #2? Oh well, you can be sure they'll shop for one and you could combine my extremely overpriced 6th D at $3 with Larsen's $5 and pay a guy in free agency. Then you go with a modest salary for the 6th (possibly Larsen). Potential top free agent D is covered.

Do you guy's want Parise? I think we can all agree that Ryder and Parise both would not be on the roster in 2014-15. Plus, I'm not sure Morrow will be, and there is almost no way he's making $4 million. So, that seems to cover spending top dollar for a top free agent forward.

$7 million to Lehtonen covers the possibility of re-signing Kari or for some strange reason going to UFA and picking up a guy.

$8 million between Reilly Smith, Tomas Vincour, and Scott Glennie? Let's just say doubtful.

So, I think I've more than covered for adding a #1 D salary, 1st line forward salary, and starting goaltender without getting skimpy on other salaries.

The point in this exercise is you might not be able to predict the names, but you make a reasonable effort to project salary based on positions. Even if Dallas is paying top, top dollar to fill every hole, there seems to be no reasonable financial issue with Reilly having an inflated salary for 1 season.

Most reasonable estimates have the cap at $60 million next season. Unless it's unreasonable to assume the cap will rise at least around $3 or $4 million a year, I think everything will work out fine. From 2005 to now, the cap has gone up over $30 million. Hopefully the new CBA will pull back on the rapid cap growth, but even a $64 or $65 million cap would be manageable.

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Old
03-26-2012, 11:05 AM
  #125
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Excellent signing. Smith will add some much needed depth to the press box.

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