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The Rebuild Thread-"You be the GM"

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Old
03-24-2012, 09:45 AM
  #126
Derby
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Originally Posted by Ricky Bobby View Post
Step 1: Realize this team isn't being turned around by next season. It is 2 if not 3 or more years for a rebuild unless they get darn lucky.
Step 2: Identify the type of team identity you want to have. i.e. a hard hitting smash mouth type team, puck possession, etc. and build towards that.
Step 3: Trade Nash. He is the biggest bargaining chip this team has and the damage has already been done by him saying he wants to move on. Unless he does a 180 this franchise needs to turn the page.
Step 4: Quit rushing young players before they are ready
Step 5: Find a platoon goalie like Harding/Montoya and come to camp giving that goalie every opportunity to win the job over Mason
Step 6: Identify the players you want to build around and make everyone else expendable and load up on picks/prospects. Guys like Methot and Umberger are secondary players whose true value might lie in what they can get you in return. If another GM is willing to overpay for them they are gone. (Weiss kept. Horton gone)
Step 7: Try to find great buy low candidates who will still be darn good or young enough to be in their prime years (Campbell, Versteeg)
Step 8: Sign free agents to replace players lost in trades for picks/prospects to buy time so prospects don't need to be rushed (Jovo/Fleish)

Essentially follow the Tallon method of building.
Point 3. Damage done to whom? Players seem to be fine with Nash. So what "damage" are you referring to? Insulted fans? Hey, Nash wants a winner, has handled himself with class throughout this debacle and even through the trade deadline and after.

So are YOUR feelings hurt or something? I hope we keep him, if circumstances around this team are resolved. Seriously, Nash isn't the problem and his wanting to be on a team with a chance to win can't be a shocker. I can't believe he's hung on this long, with this much class.

Damage done? I don't get that. If his team embraces him still, why wouldn't the fans?

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03-24-2012, 10:35 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
How so? Kane and Toews have both produced at a high level since they have been in the league. Coming right into the league after being drafted isn't being rushed if a player is ready. Don't know much about the defenders although Gudbranson spent a year back in juniors after being drafted.
There are exceptions but in most cases 18-21 year olds are not ready for the rigors of the NHL on a nightly basis.. One reason being most cannot play at the developmental pro level in the AHL until they are 20, if the NHL rules were changed I think we would see younger players advance sooner.

It's my opinion that since the lock out NHL teams have been under pressure to play their youth sooner more than ever before, the teams that have the best developmental programs and skilled staff running those programs have had an advantage-it's not easy knowing when to bring up a kid and when not to.

Also, the position played makes a difference too; generally goalies take longer than defenseman and defenseman take longer than forwards to develop.

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03-24-2012, 11:53 AM
  #128
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How so? Kane and Toews have both produced at a high level since they have been in the league. Coming right into the league after being drafted isn't being rushed if a player is ready. Don't know much about the defenders although Gudbranson spent a year back in juniors after being drafted.
Both Kane and Toews went from their first NHL training camp into the NHL without spending a day in the minors or, in the case of Kane, being sent back to juniors.

The only two Jackets who can make the same claim are Nash and Zherdev. Everyone else has been brought along more slowly, including Johansen (who's being nursed in and out of the lineup). The idea of Columbus rushing prospects, which exists around the league, is based on Gilbert Brule. Once something happens that allegedly demonstrates a pattern, it becomes difficult to show that a pattern does not exist.

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03-24-2012, 12:12 PM
  #129
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Robert, I agree that most kids aren't ready. My point to the Mayor was how could he say Kane & Toews were rushed? Look at their numbers since season one. They weren't rushed;they were ready.
And if you go look at all #1 overalls since Nash about hte only one who seems "rushed" is Erik Johnson. if the trend continues, Yakupov won't be rushed if he plays in the NHL next year.

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03-25-2012, 12:12 PM
  #130
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Not an Avs fan, just killing time.

What do you think about trading Nash and Brassard to Colorado for Stastny and the rights to Ryan Jones?

And with Yakupov and Stastny on your first line, you could be more attractive to a guy like Shane Doan. I think he won't want to play in Quebec City, and I'm willing to bet on Phoenix's relocation there. Throw the bank at him this summer. He's 35, so he'll be looking for a retirement contract, and though it might bite you in the ass later, it would give you a good character guy and captain replacement.

It's a gamble, and I understand not wanting to trade Nash, but usually when a guy asks for a trade, the organisation's hands a re tied, no matter how classy the player is about it.

Re-sign Huselius on the cheap, and you'd have a deep offence.

Yakupov - Stastny - Doan
Umberger - Johansen - Huselius
Prospal - Letestu - Jones
Gillies - no clue - Atkinson

Atkinson could spend time in the AHL, or spell a slumping/injured player in the top 6.

Colorado does it because they have O'Reilly and Duchene needing top 6 minutes, and Nash could be a good mentor for Landeskog.

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03-25-2012, 01:56 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Ismellofhockey View Post
Not an Avs fan, just killing time.

What do you think about trading Nash and Brassard to Colorado for Stastny and the rights to Ryan Jones?

And with Yakupov and Stastny on your first line, you could be more attractive to a guy like Shane Doan. I think he won't want to play in Quebec City, and I'm willing to bet on Phoenix's relocation there. Throw the bank at him this summer. He's 35, so he'll be looking for a retirement contract, and though it might bite you in the ass later, it would give you a good character guy and captain replacement.

It's a gamble, and I understand not wanting to trade Nash, but usually when a guy asks for a trade, the organisation's hands a re tied, no matter how classy the player is about it.

Re-sign Huselius on the cheap, and you'd have a deep offence.

Yakupov - Stastny - Doan
Umberger - Johansen - Huselius
Prospal - Letestu - Jones
Gillies - no clue - Atkinson

Atkinson could spend time in the AHL, or spell a slumping/injured player in the top 6.

Colorado does it because they have O'Reilly and Duchene needing top 6 minutes, and Nash could be a good mentor for Landeskog.
To me it's a lateral move that gains the CBJ nothing but a shorter term contract. I think Nash and Brass have high value than Stastny and Jones. If the CBJ move Nash it will be for multiple players/picks to get an influx of younger talent that may not offer success next year but with the idea of a better future.

I have no problem with either player from the Avs but don't see this happening.

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Old
03-26-2012, 05:11 PM
  #132
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knowing that GMSH will not be the long term GM, why let him make the largest decisions for the future of this franchise?? #1 pick and the potential Nash trade? I am really hoping that ownership really steps in and makes a change at GM. I am more concerned about having GMSH at the helm than I am with Priest. GMSH is making DTD decisions. Let a new GM come in make the moves and choose there own HC. BTW everybody is high on Richards, but what has he done? Nothing is the answer. Everybody says well he has a better record than Arneil, that is not hard when you only have like 5 wins, how hard can it be to go from there. If Richards would have come in and gone .500+ then we have a different story, but he has done nothing but continue to lose and sprinkle in a few wins here and there. Hopefully we get Yakupov and still suck a lot the Oilers and end up picking #1 next year and get Nathan MacKinnon and since he is the next coming of Crosby we can get our Crosby and this year get our Russian Malkin/Ovie and boom we are in the cup running the next 3-5 years!! Theres the plan, but then I woke up and realized I was a CBJ fan and none of that is possible!!haha

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03-26-2012, 05:18 PM
  #133
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knowing that GMSH will not be the long term GM, why let him make the largest decisions for the future of this franchise?? #1 pick and the potential Nash trade? I am really hoping that ownership really steps in and makes a change at GM. I am more concerned about having GMSH at the helm than I am with Priest. GMSH is making DTD decisions. Let a new GM come in make the moves and choose there own HC. BTW everybody is high on Richards, but what has he done? Nothing is the answer. Everybody says well he has a better record than Arneil, that is not hard when you only have like 5 wins, how hard can it be to go from there. If Richards would have come in and gone .500+ then we have a different story, but he has done nothing but continue to lose and sprinkle in a few wins here and there. Hopefully we get Yakupov and still suck a lot the Oilers and end up picking #1 next year and get Nathan MacKinnon and since he is the next coming of Crosby we can get our Crosby and this year get our Russian Malkin/Ovie and boom we are in the cup running the next 3-5 years!! Theres the plan, but then I woke up and realized I was a CBJ fan and none of that is possible!!haha
This is a good 74th post. Where you been?
Just please use the return key a few more oftens.

Claude Noel had the winingghest record in BleauJackets History, much better than Todd, and they canned him.

I do not want Howson and Priest being the deciders for this franchise.

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Old
03-26-2012, 05:22 PM
  #134
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True, but the learning curve is still there. I'm trying to think of someone right out of college who's made an impact in his first two years, and I'm having a tough time doing it....plenty of guys who did nothing though. I do remember Peter Sejna winning the Hobey Baker and then playing the next day with the Blues (and scoring his first goal). He ended up with 7 career NHL goals.

There have been several just in the last three or four years who were supposed to make an immediate impact. I can think of Matt Gilroy off the top of my head; he came in as a 25-year-old and has made zero impact in the NHL. And everyone wanted him.

I don't like the college route on a regular basis because it reminds me of the baseball's old Bonus Baby rule. The quick version of that rule was that if a player was signed to a contract with a bonus in excess of a certain amount, he was required to be on the team's 40-man roster for two full seasons before he could be sent down. If that wasn't followed, the player went on waivers and his contract was voided. Rather than making teams be judicious with who bonuses were going to, it meant that the smaller teams were forced to take on the Bonus Babies just to stay competitive...and then their hands were tied because of the terms of it. Only four of those players, by the way, became HOFers, but plenty who may have ended up there fell well short because they were playing MLB ball (or not playing at all) well before they were ready to do so.

A college free agent can dictate terms. He can not only dictate salary, but also an NTC/NMC, he can demand a one-way contract, he can do whatever he wants. And if a team wants his services and won't offer that, then someone will. Then it's a case of determining whether or not he's actually worth it. It's also like the draft; if you don't get him when you have the chance, you don't get him forever. Is it worth passing on someone because you won't give him a one-way contract, knowing that someone else may get an All-Star that you had in your back pocket over something relatively minor?
An undrafted college player who came in and made a difference in his first two years? What NBC Sports tonight- Matt Read. He signed after four years at Bemidji, spent a year in the AHL and is making an impact this year. He doesn't have a NTC/NMC either!

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Old
03-26-2012, 05:46 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by BlueJackets66 View Post
...BTW everybody is high on Richards, but what has he done? Nothing is the answer. Everybody says well he has a better record than Arneil, that is not hard when you only have like 5 wins, how hard can it be to go from there. If Richards would have come in and gone .500+ then we have a different story, but he has done nothing but continue to lose and sprinkle in a few wins here and there...
Everybody? The Dispatch has been fairly kind to Richards, I guess. Most here, if I recall correctly, have not been overly impressed; but considering how this circus is being run, there's no telling who'll be calling the shots behind the bench or in the GM's chair. I agree with you that Richards has not done enough to be brought back, but then, neither has Howson! I think even the Dispatch will have a tough time selling the paying public on "big changes" if both the coach and GM return.

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03-26-2012, 05:47 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by TaketheCannoli View Post
An undrafted college player who came in and made a difference in his first two years? What NBC Sports tonight- Matt Read. He signed after four years at Bemidji, spent a year in the AHL and is making an impact this year. He doesn't have a NTC/NMC either!
Yes, Matt Read. I still think that if I go back the last 15 years, I'll find a success rate of college players of less than 20%.

Among just Hobey Baker Award winners, there's Jason Krog (1999), Peter Sejna (2003), Junior Lessard (2004), Marty Sertich (2005), Ryan Duncan (2007), Matt Gilroy (2009), and Andy Miele (2011). Of those, only Miele has any real shot at NHL success, and he's about to turn 24. All other Baker winners had been drafted by an NHL team before winning it, so don't think I'm cherry-picking.

I think Steve Kariya was an undrafted college free agent...same story with him.

Give me a spare few hours, and I can find lists of All-Americans and all-conference players, award winners, and Hobey Baker finalists. But I'd be willing to bet that the success rate is still going to be extremely low. I'm not saying that this shoudl dissuade a team from signing one or two, but as far as building depth and boosting the prospect ranks...it doesn't seem to be the case.

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03-26-2012, 05:47 PM
  #137
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the problem I see, there's not really any great coaching candidates out there available...or at least any that would come in here for this mess...

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03-26-2012, 05:59 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Yes, Matt Read. I still think that if I go back the last 15 years, I'll find a success rate of college players of less than 20%.

Among just Hobey Baker Award winners, there's Jason Krog (1999), Peter Sejna (2003), Junior Lessard (2004), Marty Sertich (2005), Ryan Duncan (2007), Matt Gilroy (2009), and Andy Miele (2011). Of those, only Miele has any real shot at NHL success, and he's about to turn 24. All other Baker winners had been drafted by an NHL team before winning it, so don't think I'm cherry-picking.

I think Steve Kariya was an undrafted college free agent...same story with him.

Give me a spare few hours, and I can find lists of All-Americans and all-conference players, award winners, and Hobey Baker finalists. But I'd be willing to bet that the success rate is still going to be extremely low. I'm not saying that this shoudl dissuade a team from signing one or two, but as far as building depth and boosting the prospect ranks...it doesn't seem to be the case.
Tyler Bozak is quite serviceable as well.

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03-26-2012, 06:05 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Yes, Matt Read. I still think that if I go back the last 15 years, I'll find a success rate of college players of less than 20%.

Among just Hobey Baker Award winners, there's Jason Krog (1999), Peter Sejna (2003), Junior Lessard (2004), Marty Sertich (2005), Ryan Duncan (2007), Matt Gilroy (2009), and Andy Miele (2011). Of those, only Miele has any real shot at NHL success, and he's about to turn 24. All other Baker winners had been drafted by an NHL team before winning it, so don't think I'm cherry-picking.

I think Steve Kariya was an undrafted college free agent...same story with him.

Give me a spare few hours, and I can find lists of All-Americans and all-conference players, award winners, and Hobey Baker finalists. But I'd be willing to bet that the success rate is still going to be extremely low. I'm not saying that this shoudl dissuade a team from signing one or two, but as far as building depth and boosting the prospect ranks...it doesn't seem to be the case.
Then again, the Anaheim Ducks featured two key contributors from the college ranks when they won the Cup in Andy MacDonald and Chris Kunitz.

Didn't you also point out that Howson has focused on drafting college players in recent years? Another mistake waiting to reveal itself? Or is your 20% amount solely undrafted NCAA players?

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03-26-2012, 06:15 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
Then again, the Anaheim Ducks featured two key contributors from the college ranks when they won the Cup in Andy MacDonald and Chris Kunitz.

Didn't you also point out that Howson has focused on drafting college players in recent years? Another mistake waiting to reveal itself? Or is your 20% amount solely undrafted NCAA players?
Considering 2nd round picks have a 15% chance of playing any significant number of NHL games, I think the whole argument is a red herring.

If the scouts are wrong about an NCAA free agent, you get a guy who never makes it, but cost no draft picks at all. For slightly greater risk, you can draft say Stefan Legein in the 2nd round and you get a guy who never makes it and cost a 2nd round pick.


I'd also like to point out that Gilroy has played almost 200 NHL games. How many have Alexandre Picard and Joakim Lindstrom played?

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03-26-2012, 06:23 PM
  #141
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Guys, I think the point being made is that signing college UFAs is kind of like drafting in the second or third round or so - sure you're going to get some real winners, but not necessarily immediately and the odds of heartbreak are much greater than the odds of glory.

The point was brought up because the theory was advanced that college players could contribute at an effective level right away. Which is more than a little nuts. Nobody's advocating that we not bother to sign such FAs; it's more a "temper your expectations" argument.

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03-26-2012, 07:28 PM
  #142
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Sign Jokinen to a 2 year deal (2.5m per)

Sign Mark Eaton to a 2 year deal (2.4m per)

Sign Josh Harding to a 3 year deal (1.8m per)

Sign Kris Newberry to a 1 year deal (550k per)

Sign Jared Boll 4 years (700k per)

Sign Aaron Asham to a 2 year deal (750k per)


Trade

Nash (7.8M) to Montreal
2013 5th Round pick

for

2012 1st round pick (3rd overall)
2013 conditional 4th round pick (Goes down to fifth if Montreal misses the playoffs, up to 3rd if Montreal makes it to the second round)

Presumably Gomez is gone by this time so Montreal has the cap space to make this trade.

Move Brassard to RW

Resign Nikitin to a 4 year deal (2.8M per)

Draft
#1 Yakupov (900k)
#3 Galchenyuk (900k)

Umberger (4.6M) - Jokinen (2.5M) - Brassard (3.2M)
Prospal (3.2M) - Galchenyuk (900k) - Yakupov (900k)
Atkinson(875k) - Johansen (1.9m) - Dorsett (550k)
Boll (700k) - Letestu (600k) - Asham (750k)
Boyce (700k)
Newberry (550k)

JMFJ (4.35M)- Wiz (5.5M)
Nikitin (2.8M) - Tyutin (4.5M)
Eaton (2.4M) - Methot (3M)

Harding (1.8M)
Mason (2.9M)

Projected Cap hit: 49.15M

Projected Cap space: Around 17 M

Not anything flashy, and more than likely still a bottom feeder. Going for the long haul when it comes to the rebuild, as it is the only way to do it right. Yakupov and Galchenyuk are both beautiful pieces to start a rebuild with, and their relationship and on ice chemistry will make it that much more likely that they will excel at the NHL level.
Due to the underwhelming FA pool, Harding is brought in at a cheap rate to take over the starting role (and perhaps Mason finally gets a fire lit under his ass).
Team gets alot of cap space to play with going into the future, especially as bad contracts begin to go by the wayside.

EDIT: FORGOT JOHANSEN!


Last edited by Vegeta: 03-26-2012 at 07:35 PM.
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03-26-2012, 07:43 PM
  #143
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Then again, the Anaheim Ducks featured two key contributors from the college ranks when they won the Cup in Andy MacDonald and Chris Kunitz.

Didn't you also point out that Howson has focused on drafting college players in recent years? Another mistake waiting to reveal itself? Or is your 20% amount solely undrafted NCAA players?
Dustin Penner too. Of course, McDonald was 28 when he actually broke though as a pro player, Kunitz 26, and Penner a pup of 24.

My 20% is going on undrafted college players. For the most part, the top players in the USHL are going to be drafted at 18 and then go right into college, juniors, or possibly the pro ranks. The later-developing players are going to stick around until they're 20 or 21, then go to college...by the time they're meriting serious consideration, they're 24 or 25. Add in the learning curve for the pro game, and you've got someone who's usually 3-4 years behind a similar junior player.

Yes, drafting college players and letting them grow in the prospect incubator isn't a bad idea at all. But for the most part, an undrafted college free agent stands very little chance of being anything more than a serviceable pro.

Quote:
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Considering 2nd round picks have a 15% chance of playing any significant number of NHL games, I think the whole argument is a red herring.

If the scouts are wrong about an NCAA free agent, you get a guy who never makes it, but cost no draft picks at all. For slightly greater risk, you can draft say Stefan Legein in the 2nd round and you get a guy who never makes it and cost a 2nd round pick.

I'd also like to point out that Gilroy has played almost 200 NHL games. How many have Alexandre Picard and Joakim Lindstrom played?
If nothing else, it occupies a roster spot and a contract spot on someone who may or may not be any good. And once a college free agent signs, he goes from "good prospect" to "25-year-old with limited pro experience". In other words, their trade value is extremely low unless the guy really shows something early. 2nd-rounders, as a liquid asset, have value. Prospects drafted with 2nd-rounders have value. Someone who was an undrafted college free agent...not so much.

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03-26-2012, 07:53 PM
  #144
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My 20% is going on undrafted college players. For the most part, the top players in the USHL are going to be drafted at 18 and then go right into college, juniors, or possibly the pro ranks. The later-developing players are going to stick around until they're 20 or 21, then go to college...by the time they're meriting serious consideration, they're 24 or 25. Add in the learning curve for the pro game, and you've got someone who's usually 3-4 years behind a similar junior player.

Yes, drafting college players and letting them grow in the prospect incubator isn't a bad idea at all.
The question is, how much of your mix should they (i.e. long-term college prospects) be?

Particularly for a team that started out when Howson arrived behind the eight ball in prospect depth. Wouldn't it have been wiser to focus on doing a better job with junior players, or even undrafted college players on a limited basis to get people that were more ready to play sooner? As it stands, we are now 5 years into the Howson experiment and not much of what he's done has borne fruit. It has been a convenient excuse that some of them are still in college. But it is speculative as to whether those college players were really a better bet than similar players from junior A who would have been ready by now or whether they are simply people we cannot yet make a determination on because they are not ready to play...and may never be.

I say this all as someone who generally supports the college game. I'm just not sure whether the mix of college players drafted by this team has been appropriate or not.

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03-26-2012, 08:33 PM
  #145
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The question is, how much of your mix should they (i.e. long-term college prospects) be?

Particularly for a team that started out when Howson arrived behind the eight ball in prospect depth. Wouldn't it have been wiser to focus on doing a better job with junior players, or even undrafted college players on a limited basis to get people that were more ready to play sooner? As it stands, we are now 5 years into the Howson experiment and not much of what he's done has borne fruit. It has been a convenient excuse that some of them are still in college. But it is speculative as to whether those college players were really a better bet than similar players from junior A who would have been ready by now or whether they are simply people we cannot yet make a determination on because they are not ready to play...and may never be.

I say this all as someone who generally supports the college game. I'm just not sure whether the mix of college players drafted by this team has been appropriate or not.
I think it's a little like trying to determine how much of an economy should be based on manufacturing, how much on extraction and mining, how much on service, and how much on white-collar. I don't know and no one knows, but if it works now and into the future, it sounds good.

I'd say just on an anecdotal basis and from having done some cursory research, a college player and specifically a college project player could be loaded up on in the 4th round and later. From a quick look at the CBJ drafting under Howson, it looks like college players from the first three rounds have been Weber, Hansen, Goloubef, Lynch, and Tynan (5 total). The last four rounds have been York, Vogelhuber, Olson, Atkinson, Collins, Larkin, Ouellette, Reilly, and Ambroz (9 total). The other variable is that a college-bound player who's drafted high enough may elect to leave school and go the junior route. I know Charlie Coyle did that in the middle of this season and Jack Campbell de-committed from college and went into the OHL. Those are just off the top of my head, and I don't usually remember it when it happens.

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03-26-2012, 10:53 PM
  #146
leesmith
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Yes, Matt Read. I still think that if I go back the last 15 years, I'll find a success rate of college players of less than 20%.
That's about the same odds the CBJ have with their first rounders.

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03-27-2012, 09:24 AM
  #147
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If I was the GM, I would have to commit Seppuku for the dishonor I have brought upon this organization, city, and it's fans.

Maybe we can send the IGS blimp in for a strafing run.

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03-27-2012, 10:39 AM
  #148
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Maybe we can send the IGS blimp in for a strafing run.
"Hey, it's shooting Chipotle burrito coupons at us! Quick everyone, get in the way!"

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03-27-2012, 11:21 AM
  #149
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the problem I see, there's not really any great coaching candidates out there available...or at least any that would come in here for this mess...
If for some reason Phoenix does not stay in the desert and Dave Tippett does not travel to their new home, I'd love to get a guy like that in Columbus.

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03-27-2012, 11:57 AM
  #150
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Getting ANYBODY, coach, player, GM, or physical therapist for that matter, to join this franchise voluntarily with the current management is virtually a "mission impossible".

Cue theme music and show Tom Cruise trying to negotiate with the agent for a UFA.

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